EURUSD only

Sorry for the swearing. I’m out now.
Peace of mind matters — I need to put that back into focus.

H4 Monday Plan

1. Next week, (also a brand new month), I will start by watching how and where market opens..
2. If it opens below 1.1830 without any gap, bulls must be careful and patient until we see a clear break above this level! I will not switch to bearish without witnessing a solid signal...
3. If market opens above 1.1830, then you already know where this is headed.. so trade accordingly...
4. I also understand why people are trying to sell.. Not wrong but too early in my opinion...

That's all from me for this week... Thanks to all who contributed with their valuable insights and experience.. Highly appreciated!

Enjoy your weekends folks..

Peace out...

Will wait for a significant downside move before building long-term long positions.
Expecting elevated volatility over the coming weeks.
Hoping for a quick de-escalation for the people affected.

https://www.reuters.com/world/iran-c...ke-2026-02-28/

Maybe now that the US and Israel have hit Iran, we’ll finally get a proper shakeout. This constant suppression of longs was getting weird, so hopefully, we’ll get some real volatility and better trading conditions now

I don't know about you, but I think it needed a little war because the EURUSD has been really annoying for the last 2-3 weeks.

It’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg situation.
I believe the uncertainty around a potential escalation has kept EURUSD stuck and unable to push higher.

The next few days will be important. If the situation stabilizes quickly, the euro could resume its upward move.

If escalation continues, safe-haven flows into the dollar may dominate for a while.
But for me Energy prices will be key — sustained upside in oil would likely weigh much more on Europe than on the US.

For now, I’ll be trading extra cautiously over the coming days and weeks.

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/market...weekend-eurusd

Looks like we are stuck in a bit of a channel.

New month Monday, let see which way the market will take us, very unclear at the moment, although I'm leaning bullish as there is a lot of trapped bears we need to liquidate.

Have an amazing weekend all

Well, there we have it: the US and Israel are striking Iran. The big question now is what impact this will have on EURUSD. It will largely depend on the level of escalation and the knock-on effects.

I hate politically driven markets, too much emotion and very little rational price discovery. In my view, this is likely more negative for the Eurozone than for the dollar. We’ll know more by Sunday night, but as I’ve said before, I don’t want to be positioned when events like this unfold. Sure, if you happen to be on the right side, everything looks great but in reality, that’s just pure lottery.

In geopolitical escalations, emotions and risk aversion dominate — classic “risk-off” phases. And that’s precisely why technical setups often get run over in the short term.

If a military conflict between the US / Israel and Iran truly escalates, EURUSD typically has three main reaction paths:

1) Classic initial market reaction: USD strength (risk-off)
Capital flows into “safe havens” → the USD benefits almost reflexively
Equities sell off, oil rallies → particularly negative for the energy-dependent Eurozone
Result: EURUSD tends to move lower
Europe would likely be structurally more affected due to energy costs, geopolitical proximity, and export dependence.

2) Second phase (after the initial shock)
This is where things get more complex:
If oil spikes sharply → inflation rises → the Fed may stay restrictive longer → USD remains strong
If markets start fearing a global recession → rate-cut expectations increase → USD could weaken later on
So: initial dollar strength, but not necessarily a linear continuation.

3) Degree of escalation decides everything
Limited strike → short-term volatility, then a return to macro-driven trading
Regional escalation / oil shock → clearly EUR-negative
Global recession fears → USD strong initially, later a more mixed picture

Strategic conclusion
Historically, the default move in the short term has been:
geopolitical escalation = USD strength = downside pressure on EURUSD

This stops being a market and becomes event risk. And trading event risk is closer to gambling than disciplined trading. These are my two cents. Wish y'all Good luck.

Will the US and Iran war affect eurusd on Monday?

100%!

i wonder how worse it is now…

EUR/USD Overview — Key Points
Trade Policy & Section 122
• The U.S. Supreme Court struck down the president’s tariffs under the emergency powers law (IEEPA), ruling he lacked authority to impose broad import levies.
• In response, the administration immediately invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows temporary import surcharges up to 15 % (previous baseline was ~10 %) for up to 150 days.
• This shift is about legal authority, not a declaration that tariffs were “bad”; markets now face higher uncertainty and trade cost risk.
Geopolitical Risk – Iran & Safe-Haven USD
• U.S.–Iran military tensions have escalated, with missile exchanges raising fears of broader conflict.
• Markets in such conditions tend to bid safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, pressuring risk currencies including the euro.
• Oil supply risk around the Strait of Hormuz adds further risk premium to markets, often supporting USD strength.
FX & EUR/USD Implications
• Policy uncertainty from U.S. tariff changes and geopolitical stress is supportive of the dollar, creating downside pressure on EUR/USD.
• If risk-off sentiment persists, the pair is likely to drift lower toward major moving averages (e.g., daily 200 DMA) on safe-haven USD flows.
• Watch for volatility around U.S. data / Fed commentary to reinforce or counter these macro drivers.

Search EURUSD Weekend IG to check how the price on weekends is going

really cool thanks!

Holy. My TP look like gonna hit on monday open

Everyone expects the pair to drop, but will it really? It remains to be seen.

I agree.
Personally, I would like to see a big drop so I can buy the dip. But that might take some time.