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Ichimoku and price action

  • #301
  • Feb 24, 2026 1:42pm Feb 24, 2026 1:42pm
Quoting tommiho
{quote} Looking forward to that thread. I think you mentioned something about vertical line based on the 100periodes or am I mistaken? edit: post #296 actually and I meant this one https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15560009
The trader who taught me how to analyze the markets uses two SMAs—20 and 7—along with Bollinger Bands across six time frames. It’s more geared toward swing trading and investing, but it’s very powerful. The concept SMAs 20/7 works for intraday trading, but the analysis is trickier because you have to be quick. In the very short term, it's really difficult, and the system is less effective.

On the other hand, a 100 SMA is simple to analyze and highly relevant. Depending on the slope, and the probability of that slope holding for a reasonable amount of time, you can derive a strong trading bias. This doesn’t rule out trading against the direction of the SMA slope, but you need a solid argument to do so (such as excess of price, or a vertical move).
Dax only.
  • #302
  • Feb 25, 2026 12:32am Feb 25, 2026 12:32am
The benefit of looking at higher time frames: the DAX is in a range on the 3-hour chart. It’s a real vertical rodeo, not easy to follow. But the daily goal of 200 points was achieved in 25 minutes.
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Dax only.
  • #303
  • Edited 2:04am Feb 25, 2026 12:42am | Edited 2:04am
A micro gap during the London or New York session. They usually get filled very quickly, UNLESS the price is in a strong flow. Here, there is no strong flow. You have to be fast, though. These micro gaps only apply to the 1-minute timeframe. You can quickly grab 30 or 40 points (thanks to multi-entries).
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Dax only.
  • #304
  • Feb 25, 2026 2:34am Feb 25, 2026 2:34am
Verticality of price on M2-M3.

TP: ema 15 M2.
Resistance: Kijun H4 + Round number (25 100)

Edit : The price hit the 25 EMA M2 and bounced. That happens all the time. I prefer taking profits more often than aiming too high.
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Dax only.
  • #305
  • Feb 25, 2026 3:28am Feb 25, 2026 3:28am
Quoting Tyross
Verticality of price on M2-M3. TP: ema 15 M2. Resistance: Kijun H4 + Round number (25 100) Edit : The price hit the 25 EMA M2 and bounced. That happens all the time. I prefer taking profits more often than aiming too high. {image} {image}
Follow-up on the M2 trade.

Kostas, the master of the Choros method (intraday method) on Forex Factory, often reminded us: "'Know how to take your profits quickly.'"

We're intraday trading, not swing trading. We have trading opportunities all day long. It's nothing like a trader who takes one or two trades a week, aiming to capture maximum pips with a wider stop-loss.
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Dax only.
  • #306
  • Feb 25, 2026 4:31am Feb 25, 2026 4:31am
Totally agree. However I do look back and think if I had stayed in longer, would have finished for the day in one hour.
  • #307
  • Feb 25, 2026 6:00am Feb 25, 2026 6:00am
Quoting Ronin-
Totally agree. However I do look back and think if I had stayed in longer, would have finished for the day in one hour.
Sure, there's always room to get better.

But you've got to look at the bright side and pat yourself on the back for your wins.
Dax only.
  • #308
  • Feb 25, 2026 7:19am Feb 25, 2026 7:19am
Alright, that’s enough. I’m picking up easy points while being bored, which is my cue to stop.

(Daily goal: 200 points per day)
(No commission on Indices with my broker)
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Dax only.
  • #309
  • Feb 25, 2026 7:28am Feb 25, 2026 7:28am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} The trader who taught me how to analyze the markets uses two SMAs—20 and 7—along with Bollinger Bands across six time frames. It’s more geared toward swing trading and investing, but it’s very powerful. The concept SMAs 20/7 works for intraday trading, but the analysis is trickier because you have to be quick. In the very short term, it's really difficult, and the system is less effective. On the other hand, a 100 SMA is simple to analyze and highly relevant. Depending on the slope, and the probability of that slope holding for a reasonable...
Good point. Quick question: do you use the **100 SMA mainly for directional bias only, or do you also take entries directly from pullbacks into it (like dynamic support/resistance)?
  • #310
  • Feb 25, 2026 7:36am Feb 25, 2026 7:36am
Quoting Bushramujhta
{quote} Good point. Quick question: do you use the **100 SMA mainly for directional bias only, or do you also take entries directly from pullbacks into it (like dynamic support/resistance)?
Great question.

Well, it’s both. I pay very close attention to the slope of the 100-period SMA for timeframes ranging from M1 to M5—that’s for trading. For analysis, I look at this slope on timeframes up to Daily.

I primarily evaluate the 'strength' or reliability of the slope by using the vertical line that marks the candle from 100 periods back. A 100 SMA slope that is rising but looks like it could easily reverse isn't useful to me, neither for trading nor for analysis.

Dax only.
  • #311
  • Feb 25, 2026 7:41am Feb 25, 2026 7:41am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} Great question. Well, it’s both. I pay very close attention to the slope of the 100-period SMA for timeframes ranging from M1 to M5—that’s for trading. For analysis, I look at this slope on timeframes up to Daily. I primarily evaluate the 'strength' or reliability of the slope by using the vertical line that marks the candle from 100 periods back. A 100 SMA slope that is rising but looks like it could easily reverse isn't useful to me, neither for trading nor for analysis.
That’s a very disciplined way to use the 100 SMA.when the 100 SMA slope is strong, do you ever ignore your manual support/resistance zones if they conflict with the SMA direction, or do those zones always take priority in your decision?
  • #312
  • Feb 25, 2026 7:54am Feb 25, 2026 7:54am
Quoting Bushramujhta
{quote} That’s a very disciplined way to use the 100 SMA.when the 100 SMA slope is strong, do you ever ignore your manual support/resistance zones if they conflict with the SMA direction, or do those zones always take priority in your decision?
My trading is mostly based on price exhaustion on lower timeframes (up to M5). If I determine that price is clearly overextended—which I gauge using the light grey Guppy EMAs on my charts, price verticality, and the energy spent during the move—and there is a reaction zone in play, I disregard the SMA 100 slope. I prioritize the immediate moment, meaning the highly probable reaction.

However, the broader context remains crucial: SMA 100, the X5 Guppy, and Ichimoku obstacles from higher timeframes (M30 and above). Trading without the overall context is absurd. It's like trying to find your way while only looking at your feet.
Dax only.
  • #313
  • Feb 25, 2026 8:00am Feb 25, 2026 8:00am
Some details : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15588046
Dax only.
  • #314
  • Feb 26, 2026 12:21am Feb 26, 2026 12:21am
End of Day. (Daily goal: 200 points per day).

Verticality of price on time frames M1-M2
Support : SSB H1 + Kijun H1 + Round Number
TP: EMA 15 M2 (not M1)
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Dax only.
  • #315
  • Feb 26, 2026 12:45am Feb 26, 2026 12:45am
I’m waiting a bit...
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Dax only.
  • #316
  • Feb 26, 2026 1:18am Feb 26, 2026 1:18am
This is the indicator
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  • #317
  • Feb 26, 2026 1:40am Feb 26, 2026 1:40am
Quoting Ronin-
This is the indicator{image}
Very interesting.

I place a lot of importance on the 100 SMA because it's essentially the 20 SMA multiplied by 5.

The 20-period moving average is a classic in technical analysis, but it has little impact on very small time frames. So, I multiplied it by 5, similar to the Guppy Multiple Moving Average (GMMA) approach. The results are significantly better, so I keep it on all my charts.

This 100 SMA is also (nearly) the same as the 35 SMA x 3 used in the Choros method (on FF) —and in that method, the 35 is very important (slope, dynamique level).
Dax only.
  • #318
  • Feb 26, 2026 1:42am Feb 26, 2026 1:42am
Quoting Ronin-
This is the indicator{image}
Are you basing your trades on when all timeframes align, or do you prioritize one specific timeframe as the main direction?
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  • #319
  • Feb 26, 2026 2:01am Feb 26, 2026 2:01am
Verticality of price on M2-M3

("Verticality": post 1)

Resistance : Gap last night
TP : ema 15 M2

Edit: ema 15 M2
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Dax only.
  • #320
  • Edited 2:52am Feb 26, 2026 2:41am | Edited 2:52am
Quoting Tyross
Verticality of price on M2-M3 ("Verticality": post 1) Resistance : Gap last night TP : ema 15 M2 Edit: ema 15 M2 {image} {image}
...Price verticality, a highly reliable trading setup, manifests in a quite specific, yet recognizable way within the Ichimoku system.

The price moves so rapidly that the Tenkan-sen becomes 'invisible,' aligning perfectly with the Kijun-sen, while the price itself is far extended.

During extreme price action, it can be observed as early as the M1 or M2 timeframes.

==> This Ichimoku configuration serves as a powerful alert that a counter-trend trade may be possible (provided, of course, that it is trading against a key obstacle/level)
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Dax only.
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