This will be the trade of the week
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2
- #222,766
- Feb 24, 2026 12:50am Feb 24, 2026 12:50am
I borrowed an article from a journalist with thoughts on the dollar. My last few weeks have been very bad, and this article only confirms that I made the right decision when preparing my positions. I didn't bang my head against a brick wall or go against the market. I don't want to excuse my failure by simply saying it's market manipulation. It's not; it's the disproportion between big money and my few thousand euros.
I just have to remember that the market doesn't always follow the data.
Now back to trading, I'm above 1.18185 with a buy order
How can we speak of a recovery in the labor market when the Bureau of Statistics revises its own reports downward every month, and the January outcome was only 130,000 new jobs, which is not very impressive? Next came the inflation report in the U.S. Inflation slowed to 2.4%, which is below forecasts. Lower inflation means fewer grounds for the Federal Reserve to keep the key interest rate at its current level. Yet the market did not take this factor into account. The dollar continues to rise. The absurdity culminated last week. First, the U.S. GDP report for the fourth quarter showed the growth was not 0.1-0.2% smaller, but a full 50% lower!!! This report also went unnoticed. Then, on Friday evening, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump's trade tariffs were illegal, but Trump immediately responded with new 15% tariffs on all countries, stating that no one intends to return the money collected in 2025. If the cancellation of tariffs could indeed have been seen as positive for the dollar, the immediate reinstatement of tariffs effectively puts an end to any hopes of their future repeal.
Monday's trading in the American currency started off predictably - with a decline - but by the morning, the U.S. dollar began to appreciate again, adhering to the dynamics of the past two weeks. Thus, we consider the market movements to be illogical. At least, they cannot be explained through fundamentals and macroeconomics. Naturally, if the dollar is rising, it is being bought by someone. However, predicting market makers' actions, especially illogical ones, is impossible. By the way, it is certainly not central banks buying dollars, as the share of dollar reserves over the weekend dropped to its lowest level in the past 20 years - 56.9%.
I just have to remember that the market doesn't always follow the data.
Now back to trading, I'm above 1.18185 with a buy order
How can we speak of a recovery in the labor market when the Bureau of Statistics revises its own reports downward every month, and the January outcome was only 130,000 new jobs, which is not very impressive? Next came the inflation report in the U.S. Inflation slowed to 2.4%, which is below forecasts. Lower inflation means fewer grounds for the Federal Reserve to keep the key interest rate at its current level. Yet the market did not take this factor into account. The dollar continues to rise. The absurdity culminated last week. First, the U.S. GDP report for the fourth quarter showed the growth was not 0.1-0.2% smaller, but a full 50% lower!!! This report also went unnoticed. Then, on Friday evening, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Donald Trump's trade tariffs were illegal, but Trump immediately responded with new 15% tariffs on all countries, stating that no one intends to return the money collected in 2025. If the cancellation of tariffs could indeed have been seen as positive for the dollar, the immediate reinstatement of tariffs effectively puts an end to any hopes of their future repeal.
Monday's trading in the American currency started off predictably - with a decline - but by the morning, the U.S. dollar began to appreciate again, adhering to the dynamics of the past two weeks. Thus, we consider the market movements to be illogical. At least, they cannot be explained through fundamentals and macroeconomics. Naturally, if the dollar is rising, it is being bought by someone. However, predicting market makers' actions, especially illogical ones, is impossible. By the way, it is certainly not central banks buying dollars, as the share of dollar reserves over the weekend dropped to its lowest level in the past 20 years - 56.9%.
- #222,767
- Feb 24, 2026 12:57am Feb 24, 2026 12:57am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,132 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
... For me, it’s clear that for a sustainable longer-term rise, the gap would first need to be closed. At the same time, that would also provide a test of the 1.1780 level to see whether an interim bottom can form there. Let’s see, time will tell.{image}
How can we speak of a recovery in the labor market when the Bureau of Statistics revises its own reports downward every month, and the January outcome was only 130,000 new jobs, which is not very impressive? Next came the inflation report in the U.S. Inflation slowed to 2.4%, which is below forecasts. Lower inflation means fewer grounds for the Federal Reserve to keep the key interest rate at its current level. Yet the market did not take this factor into account. The dollar continues to rise. The absurdity culminated last week.... Naturally, if...
OK let me be straightforward here.
**Current price: 1.1781**
We are sitting right on the **0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1772**. This is not a random spot. This is a key decision zone.
---
## BIAS: NEUTRAL → Leaning Bearish
Bears have been in control since the 1.2083 top. Price made lower highs all the way down. The recent bounce from the February lows got rejected. Now we are back testing 1.1772 from above — or barely holding it.
**Key levels I am watching:**
- **1.1831 (0.5 Fib)** — bears must defend this
- **1.1772 (0.618 Fib)** — current battleground
- **1.1688 (0.786 Fib)** — next target if 1.1772 breaks
---
## SCENARIO 1 — Bearish (Primary)
If H1 candle **closes below 1.1772**... bears take control again.
Looking for continuation toward **1.1688** first, then **1.1600** area.
No rush. I wait for the close. No anticipation.
---
## SCENARIO 2 — Bullish (Alternative)
If H1 candle **closes back above 1.1831**... I stop looking short.
Above 1.1831 opens the door to **1.1891** (0.382 Fib).
But right now? Bulls have not proven anything yet. The rejections on this chart are clear.
---
## PATIENCE NOTE
Price is at a Fib level. MACD on H1 is flat, barely showing momentum either way. This is **not the moment to force a trade**.
I wait for a clean H1 candle close — either below 1.1772 or above 1.1831.
Until then: **I sit on my hands.**
Stay Green
**Current price: 1.1781**
We are sitting right on the **0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1772**. This is not a random spot. This is a key decision zone.
---
## BIAS: NEUTRAL → Leaning Bearish
Bears have been in control since the 1.2083 top. Price made lower highs all the way down. The recent bounce from the February lows got rejected. Now we are back testing 1.1772 from above — or barely holding it.
**Key levels I am watching:**
- **1.1831 (0.5 Fib)** — bears must defend this
- **1.1772 (0.618 Fib)** — current battleground
- **1.1688 (0.786 Fib)** — next target if 1.1772 breaks
---
## SCENARIO 1 — Bearish (Primary)
If H1 candle **closes below 1.1772**... bears take control again.
Looking for continuation toward **1.1688** first, then **1.1600** area.
No rush. I wait for the close. No anticipation.
---
## SCENARIO 2 — Bullish (Alternative)
If H1 candle **closes back above 1.1831**... I stop looking short.
Above 1.1831 opens the door to **1.1891** (0.382 Fib).
But right now? Bulls have not proven anything yet. The rejections on this chart are clear.
---
## PATIENCE NOTE
Price is at a Fib level. MACD on H1 is flat, barely showing momentum either way. This is **not the moment to force a trade**.
I wait for a clean H1 candle close — either below 1.1772 or above 1.1831.
Until then: **I sit on my hands.**
Stay Green
