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Ichimoku and price action

  • #281
  • Feb 20, 2026 3:53am Feb 20, 2026 3:53am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} The same. M5. {image}
Staging positions allows for entering against each Ichimoku resistance level.

When price action is extremely vertical, we know it istemporarily very powerful, but we don't know at which level it will capitulate and reverse.

Therefore, we enter gradually, little by little shifting the net average price of our total position.

If I had entered in a single position with a stop loss, I would have been stopped out at a loss three times in a row, as it took three Ichimoku resistances before the correction occurred.

I am very wary of EMA 15 on M5, which tends to reject price frequently, so that is my maximum profit target.



Edit: terrible Ema 15 on M5.....
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Dax only.
  • #282
  • Feb 20, 2026 4:10am Feb 20, 2026 4:10am
I’m glad I was able to demonstrate trades using 'Extreme Verticality.'

You have to spot it on timeframes like M3, M4, or M5. You get large, very vertical candles following one another; it’s a clear sign of an extreme.

But you have to be patient: the price will turn around... but only once it has exhausted its momentum.

This is arguably one of the best counter-trend trades; the probability of success is huge.

There are a lot of economic announcements today, so my day is done (my daily target of 200 points has been reached anyway).



(No commission on Indices with my broker)
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Dax only.
  • #283
  • Feb 20, 2026 4:38am Feb 20, 2026 4:38am
On MT5, here is an indicator that displays the average net price of a position with a horizontal line.

It shows the price level at which the trade becomes profitable (the price must cross this line).

This is essential when scaling into trades with multiple entries, as our overall net price should never be too far from the current market price. It is one of the foundations of the method.

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq5 AveragePrice.mq5   10 KB | 86 downloads
Dax only.
  • #284
  • Feb 20, 2026 8:05am Feb 20, 2026 8:05am
Quoting Tyross
On MT5, here is an indicator that displays the average net price of a position with a horizontal line. It shows the price level at which the trade becomes profitable (the price must cross this line). This is essential when scaling into trades with multiple entries, as our overall net price should never be too far from the current market price. It is one of the foundations of the method. {file}

i use also this one for mt4:
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 me_Breakeven_Line v1.mq4   6 KB | 113 downloads
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #285
  • Feb 20, 2026 8:07am Feb 20, 2026 8:07am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i use also this one for mt4: {file}
Thanks my friend
Dax only.
  • #286
  • Feb 23, 2026 4:44am Feb 23, 2026 4:44am
This is a classic 'kick in the butt' setup in Ichimoku: the Kijun (or Tenkan) forms an angle at the period rollover on a higher timeframe.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15581488

=> The price approaches the flat Kijun, the timer hits the end of the period, and as soon as the next candle opens, the Kijun (or Tenkan) forms an angle that touches the price. The reaction is almost always brutal.

It’s also a trap, because the take-profit for a short trade set at the flat Kijun will likely not be hit.
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Dax only.
  • #287
  • Feb 23, 2026 4:56am Feb 23, 2026 4:56am
Quoting Tyross
This is a classic 'kick in the butt' setup in Ichimoku: the Kijun (or Tenkan) forms an angle at the period rollover on a higher timeframe. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...8#post15581488 => The price approaches the flat Kijun, the timer hits the end of the period, and as soon as the next candle opens, the Kijun (or Tenkan) forms an angle that touches the price. The reaction is almost always brutal. It’s also a trap, because the take-profit for a short trade set at the flat Kijun will likely not be hit. {image}...
There is value in using a multi-entry trading strategy during an unforeseen event: a 'level' is, above all, a zone. The core principle is to enter slightly ahead of it with small positions, then add more upon hitting the level, and finally add again beyond it. This allows you to manage the overall net price of the position. In this case, our initial entries resulted in a great trade, even if we didn't have time to execute the subsequent entries.
Dax only.
  • #288
  • Feb 23, 2026 5:03am Feb 23, 2026 5:03am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} There is value in using a multi-entry trading strategy during an unforeseen event: a 'level' is, above all, a zone. The core principle is to enter slightly ahead of it with small positions, then add more upon hitting the level, and finally add again beyond it. This allows you to manage the overall net price of the position. In this case, our initial entries resulted in a great trade, even if we didn't have time to execute the subsequent entries.
I didn't do any trading this morning; with Trump's economic policy being so chaotic and mood-driven, the DAX is looking hesitant following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision.

Anyway, In Europe, Monday mornings and Friday afternoons are the worst times to trade.
Dax only.
  • #289
  • Feb 23, 2026 6:49am Feb 23, 2026 6:49am
I've never managed to get Ichimoku to work in real life. It is very vague and seems to show in a very generalised way zones.

The acid test is a realistic backtest on sufficiently diverse scenarios with specific criteria to make the test repeatable. Would love to hear if anyone has such stats.
  • #290
  • Feb 23, 2026 7:38am Feb 23, 2026 7:38am
Quoting forexiter
I've never managed to get Ichimoku to work in real life. It is very vague and seems to show in a very generalised way zones. The acid test is a realistic backtest on sufficiently diverse scenarios with specific criteria to make the test repeatable. Would love to hear if anyone has such stats.
Backtesting Ichimoku is extremely difficult. For short-term intraday trading, it’s impossible. The only examples I’ve seen are in swing trading; while they looked good, they don’t prove anything because the sample size is too small.

We have to be honest: trading Ichimoku by following strict rules is difficult, contrary to what the trainers who sell Ichimoku courses claim—that’s their primary business.

What we see most often is a partial use of the system. That’s my case, actually. I consider Ichimoku a relevant analytical tool, and that’s it.
Dax only.
  • #291
  • Feb 23, 2026 7:57am Feb 23, 2026 7:57am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} I didn't do any trading this morning; with Trump's economic policy being so chaotic and mood-driven, the DAX is looking hesitant following the U.S. Supreme Court's decision. Anyway, In Europe, Monday mornings and Friday afternoons are the worst times to trade.

i agree, mondays and late fridays are tricky...mondays can be slow, and friday can be a freight train day (trendday)

the other dangerous days are tuesday, wednesday and thursday (old joke i know;-))
trading is like dancing, don't think and just listen to the music!
  • #292
  • Feb 23, 2026 7:59am Feb 23, 2026 7:59am
Quoting birdland
{quote} i agree, mondays and late fridays are tricky...mondays can be slow, and friday can be a freight train day (trendday) the other dangerous days are tuesday, wednesday and thursday (old joke i know;-))
Still, you're not doing too badly with your 3,000 pips a week...
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15583790
Dax only.
  • #293
  • Edited 7:10pm Feb 23, 2026 6:49pm | Edited 7:10pm
Quoting Tyross
{quote} Backtesting Ichimoku is extremely difficult. For short-term intraday trading, it’s impossible. The only examples I’ve seen are in swing trading; while they looked good, they don’t prove anything because the sample size is too small. We have to be honest: trading Ichimoku by following strict rules is difficult, contrary to what the trainers who sell Ichimoku courses claim—that’s their primary business. What we see most often is a partial use of the system. That’s my case, actually. I consider Ichimoku a relevant analytical tool, and that’s...
If you're using the SpanA and SpanB Ichimoku clouds in backtesting, you must understand the concept of the Kijunsen value.

If you're only using the standard Ichimoku from MetaTrader, try using a Kijunsen value =1.

See the real-time comparison of SpanA and SpanB, as well as the history
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  • #294
  • Feb 24, 2026 2:47am Feb 24, 2026 2:47am
Quoting Tyross
...just before the news for Dax. Hum... short TP is needed . Extrem Verticality of Price = Strong Probabilities if there's a good support on ichimoku. {image}
Vertical price, and strong support levels on higher time frames.

DAX is extremely volatile this morning, so proceed with caution and set the take-profit at the M3 Tenkan.

=> Multi-entries on levels : https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15582750
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Dax only.
  • #295
  • Edited 4:53am Feb 24, 2026 4:34am | Edited 4:53am
The vertical line indicates the candle from 100 periods ago. The current price is well below that candle's close, so 100 SMA is bearish.

For it to turn bullish, the price needs to move above that candle.

With each new open on this timeframe, the vertical line will shift one period to the right, marking the new threshold to break to reverse the 100 SMA slope.

The further away this threshold is, the longer the current 100 SMA slope will resist.

===> 100 SMA pulls the price in the direction of its slope. Trades in that direction have a better probability of success.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15560009
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Attached File(s)
File Type: mq5 Vertical_Multiline.mq5   15 KB | 93 downloads
Dax only.
  • #296
  • Feb 24, 2026 9:07am Feb 24, 2026 9:07am
Quoting Tyross
...just before the news for Dax. Hum... short TP is needed . Extrem Verticality of Price = Strong Probabilities if there's a good support on ichimoku. {image}
Verticality... I love it. Fast take profit, lot of points

I'll stop there; I've well and truly blown past my 200-point daily goal. I’m going to end up doing something stupid from overconfidence.



Edit: Don't get too greedy with the DAX... it gives back just as quickly as it takes....
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Dax only.
  • #297
  • Feb 24, 2026 11:39am Feb 24, 2026 11:39am
Quoting Tyross
{quote} There is value in using a multi-entry trading strategy during an unforeseen event: a 'level' is, above all, a zone. The core principle is to enter slightly ahead of it with small positions, then add more upon hitting the level, and finally add again beyond it. This allows you to manage the overall net price of the position. In this case, our initial entries resulted in a great trade, even if we didn't have time to execute the subsequent entries.
Hi Tyross, I believe this is one of the things that can really change ones trading. I call it a dirty entry for the lack of the better word. Combine it with a place where price reacts and you have a viable strategy.
Enjoying your posts even that Ichimoku isn't my cup of tee.
Thank you
  • #298
  • Feb 24, 2026 12:41pm Feb 24, 2026 12:41pm
Quoting tommiho
{quote} Hi Tyross, I believe this is one of the things that can really change ones trading. I call it a dirty entry for the lack of the better word. Combine it with a place where price reacts and you have a viable strategy. Enjoying your posts even that Ichimoku isn't my cup of tee. Thank you
Thanks Tommiho.

You’re right, these entries give us a chance to do better on the next one.

We don’t need Ichimoku for this trading; it’s just a personal preference. But I know that, generally speaking, Ichimoku isn't very popular.

The concept of anticipating the slope of the 100 SMA is a very important aspect. An old floor trader taught me this approach. It’s so important that I might do a dedicated thread on it. We'll see.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15588046
Dax only.
  • #299
  • Edited 3:22pm Feb 24, 2026 3:09pm | Edited 3:22pm
Quoting Tyross
{quote} Thanks Tommiho. You’re right, these entries give us a chance to do better on the next one. We don’t need Ichimoku for this trading; it’s just a personal preference. But I know that, generally speaking, Ichimoku isn't very popular. The concept of anticipating the slope of the 100 SMA is a very important aspect. An old floor trader taught me this approach. It’s so important that I might do a dedicated thread on it. We'll see. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15588046
Looking forward to that thread. I think you mentioned something about vertical line based on the 100periodes or am I mistaken?


edit:
post #296 actually

and I meant this one
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post15560009
  • #300
  • Feb 24, 2026 3:42pm Feb 24, 2026 3:42pm
Quoting Tyross
{quote} Thanks Tommiho. You’re right, these entries give us a chance to do better on the next one. We don’t need Ichimoku for this trading; it’s just a personal preference. But I know that, generally speaking, Ichimoku isn't very popular. The concept of anticipating the slope of the 100 SMA is a very important aspect. An old floor trader taught me this approach. It’s so important that I might do a dedicated thread on it. We'll see. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...6#post15588046
We would really appreciate the thread Tyross
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