I might be the only one still in a long position during these tough price action
VKK
- #222,697
- Feb 23, 2026 5:37am Feb 23, 2026 5:37am
This morning I took a small position after the market opened with a GAP on EUR/USD. Typically, when a GAP forms, price tends to retrace back to the level that was skipped in order to “fill” it, as that area hasn’t been traded. Of course, this is not a fixed rule and it doesn’t always happen. That said, I like the setup because from a macro perspective I still believe the U.S. dollar could regain some ground in the short term. My only concern is that U.S. Q4 GDP data came in below expectations (despite still showing growth), and there are ongoing...
I’m staying on the sidelines for now. Let’s see how price develops from here.
We bounced from the low around **1.1748** zone and now we're sitting near **1.1782** — right under a key yellow horizontal level.
That yellow line around **1.1775/1.1780** is now the line in the sand for me.
Price is also trading between the 28H MA (below) and the 24H MA (above). MAs are still pointing down overall. MACD on H1 is trying to recover but nothing confirmed yet.
---
## CURRENT BIAS: **NEUTRAL leaning BEARISH**
Key level: **1.1805 / 1.1810** — bears have the upper hand while below this.
---
## SCENARIO 1 – BEARISH (Primary)
If price **fails to hold above 1.1775** on H1 candle close... bears are back in control.
Target: retest of **1.1748** lows. Below that, **1.1700** comes into play.
I look for sell opportunities near **1.1800–1.1810** if price gets rejected there with a clean H1 candle close back below.
---
## SCENARIO 2 – BULLISH (Alternative)
Only if **H1 candle closes clearly above 1.1810**.
Then I switch. No selling. I wait for a retest of that level and look for buys towards **1.1850** first, then **1.1900** area.
Not before. A close above 1.1810 changes everything short term.
---
## PATIENCE NOTE
Right now price is in **no-man's-land**. Between support and the first resistance cluster. This is not the time to force anything.
I wait for one of two things:
- H1 rejection candle near 1.1805/1.1810 → sell
- H1 close above 1.1810 → flip bullish, wait for retest
Until then — **I wait.**
Stay Green
That yellow line around **1.1775/1.1780** is now the line in the sand for me.
Price is also trading between the 28H MA (below) and the 24H MA (above). MAs are still pointing down overall. MACD on H1 is trying to recover but nothing confirmed yet.
---
## CURRENT BIAS: **NEUTRAL leaning BEARISH**
Key level: **1.1805 / 1.1810** — bears have the upper hand while below this.
---
## SCENARIO 1 – BEARISH (Primary)
If price **fails to hold above 1.1775** on H1 candle close... bears are back in control.
Target: retest of **1.1748** lows. Below that, **1.1700** comes into play.
I look for sell opportunities near **1.1800–1.1810** if price gets rejected there with a clean H1 candle close back below.
---
## SCENARIO 2 – BULLISH (Alternative)
Only if **H1 candle closes clearly above 1.1810**.
Then I switch. No selling. I wait for a retest of that level and look for buys towards **1.1850** first, then **1.1900** area.
Not before. A close above 1.1810 changes everything short term.
---
## PATIENCE NOTE
Right now price is in **no-man's-land**. Between support and the first resistance cluster. This is not the time to force anything.
I wait for one of two things:
- H1 rejection candle near 1.1805/1.1810 → sell
- H1 close above 1.1810 → flip bullish, wait for retest
Until then — **I wait.**
Stay Green
