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Trading EURUSD only 43,756 replies

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EURUSD only

  • #222,621
  • Feb 20, 2026 12:52pm Feb 20, 2026 12:52pm
Quoting AleksDreamer
{quote} If your direction is right and you struggle with entry. Next time do this, when you about to enter a trade - dont and instead place an entry order at your stop loss if it executes great, if it doesn't better luck next time.
oh thats a great idea
thanks man
  • #222,622
  • Feb 20, 2026 12:53pm Feb 20, 2026 12:53pm
Quoting Nasasa
{quote} Hi, I'm new to the forum. I'm very curious about your approach to technical analysis. Does the information you receive help you make decisions? Everyone has a different interpretation of the market view. I focus on the technique of averages, RSI, Fibo, and of course, fundamentals and current information. Today we end the day at 1,177. What's next?
Different people have different approach to the market, I basically use pivot points, trendline for analysis and price action coupled with some other indicators that help for confirmation, I have developed rules that work with them over the years. For next week, I'm still bearish because of this week's bearish engulfing candle but let's see how today ends, then we can re-analyse.

The information I get here from quite a select few just help me confirm direction and targets...some offer alternate analysis which provide new insights.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #222,623
  • Feb 20, 2026 1:07pm Feb 20, 2026 1:07pm
Well, I'm glad I got humbled once again this week, so that it now forces me to make some very needed improvements. I have already taken extensive work on my strategy, given how weak it has been the past straight month, and while it saved me from drawdown, I am back in it (about 3.5%). One very very important issue about myself however was that I entered randomly, scalping "hoping it would work". That is now fixed, and now I just am going to reanalyze everything, work on it, and come back completely different next week. Thank you all, have a great weekend, see you soon!
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #222,624
  • Feb 20, 2026 1:15pm Feb 20, 2026 1:15pm
US Tariff Update – Market Impact
Recent headlines around a potential 10% global tariff framework under Section 122 suggest a shift toward a more protectionist trade stance.
Classification:
Leans hawkish (USD-supportive) with a risk-off undertone.
Expected Currency Impact
USD (DXY): Supported due to safe-haven demand and trade tightening bias
EUR / Risk currencies: May face pressure if global trade sentiment weakens
JPY / CHF: Could attract inflows as defensive assets
Key Focus
Market direction will depend on:
Official confirmation and execution
US yields reaction
Broader risk sentiment
Conclusion
This development introduces short-term uncertainty and supports a USD-positive, risk-sensitive environment, with sustained direction dependent on follow-through rather than the headline alone.

Happy weekend FOLKS
“Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
  • #222,625
  • Feb 20, 2026 4:09pm Feb 20, 2026 4:09pm
# EURUSD – Current Analysis

---

**What I see on the chart:**

Price is sitting right at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement — **1.1772** area. That's a key level. Not random. The whole move down from the peak (~1.2083) has been pulling back and now price is testing this fib support.

Current price: **1.1775**. Basically sitting ON the level.

MACD on H1 is flattening. No clear momentum either way right now.

---

## BIAS: **NEUTRAL — leaning bearish**

Bears have been in control since the 1.2083 top. The structure is lower highs, lower lows. The 28-period LWMA on H4 is pointing down and price is below it. That matters.

**Key level that defines everything: 1.1772**

---

## SCENARIO 1 — BEARISH (primary)

If price **cannot hold 1.1772** and an **H1 candle closes below it cleanly** — bears are back in control.

Next targets:
- **1.1687** (0.786 fib)
- Possibly lower toward **1.1600** area

Next week I look for sell entries on M5 after H1 confirmation close below 1.1772.
No anticipation.

---

## SCENARIO 2 — BULLISH (alternative)

If price **holds 1.1772** and I see an **H1 candle close above 1.1831** (0.5 fib) — then bulls are trying to reclaim structure.

In that case I flip. No selling.

Start looking for buys toward 1.1890. But right now? That's not what the chart is telling me.

---

## PATIENCE NOTE Price is ON the level. This is exactly the worst moment to enter. Could bounce. Could break. I don't know yet — and that's fine. **I wait for a candle close.** H1 close below 1.1772 → sell setup. H1 close back above 1.1831 → I reconsider. Until then — **I do nothing.**

Stay Green
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  • #222,626
  • Feb 20, 2026 4:55pm Feb 20, 2026 4:55pm
We are at a pivotal moment; either the trend will reverse or we will witness a significant upward correction.
I am currently bullish, but at the slightest sign of a continued bearish trend, I will switch sides. (I trade trends; I don't care about being wrong. What I want is an entry with very tight stop-loss orders, looking for trends over a 3-day to 1-week period. If I am wrong, I take the same position in reverse and recapture the trend.)My first target is 1.18375; we'll see how to manage the trade later if we end up here.
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  • #222,627
  • Feb 21, 2026 2:33am Feb 21, 2026 2:33am
Looking at the technicals: Weekly close at 1.17805. This is my line in the sand for next week. I’ll be pivoting my bias based on the reaction here. It’s the same play as last week’s 1.1866 level that gave us that clean short. So, 1.17805 is the master trigger below it, I’m full-on bear/ above it, I’m longing. If we break 1.1745, I’m going max leverage, selling the house, and longing the bank loan for a massive short. Only a sustained move back above 1.1847 invalidates the bear trend and flips me back to full-power long.


1.1847

1.17805

1.1745
  • #222,628
  • Feb 21, 2026 2:36am Feb 21, 2026 2:36am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
M5: channel is broken.. but situation still says wait for a dip.. so I wait... I want to go long at yellow zone... Because it is a Friday evening, I will open long if the dip occurs or I will stay out.. No need to chase another trade at this late hour.. But one thing for sure: At this moment I would not sell... 1.1770 is a buy zone on M15! {image}
This was just an example of how I give easy winners to my folks... Check what happened on M5 after I pointed long on 1.1770... It is what it is though...

Again: Can't do anything to those who want to play blind what kind of info is constantly shared here... What is left would be feeding with a silver spoon.. I don't do that..

Anyways... happy weekends folks
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #222,629
  • Feb 21, 2026 4:02am Feb 21, 2026 4:02am
Quick H1 Plan for Monday

  1. I keep it simple.. No fancy charts.. No high tech colored photoshop visuals.. Just a plain old H1 chart!
  2. Trend on this TF has probably already shifted to bullish (based on macd divergence and my yellow zone violation)
  3. On Monday, I want to chase longs with every upcoming dip... but it can also get choppy if trend is still shifting! So I might trade mixed if I see fit. All depends on market flow.

Anyway... that's all for now..

Keep enjoying your weekends folks.. Peace out...

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #222,630
  • Feb 21, 2026 4:06am Feb 21, 2026 4:06am
The weekly trend is up, we are in a down correction. Going into Friday I was focused on building a short position. I did it, close to the top, by increasing the position on adverse moves and reducing on favorable moves. However, the failure to make a new low and other considerations, now lead me to see the probability of a rise to around 1.19, instead. I expect it to last a few days, before dropping again towards 1.17 area to complete the correction.

On Monday I'll be looking to exit short and reverse to long, as low as possible, as long as it is above the 1.17419 low, and based on my entry signals.
Practitioner of the cryptic trading arts
  • #222,631
  • Feb 21, 2026 9:58am Feb 21, 2026 9:58am
Quote
On Monday I'll be looking to exit short and reverse to long, as low as possible, as long as it is above the 1.17419 low, and based on my entry signals.

Yeah, I think the short is done. My system should flip to bullish on Monday. I trade on a daily chart and keep an eye on the weekly to see the macro trend. Like you said, the current bear move was a correction back to the mean (see the weekly chart with 8 and 18 ema). The next bull move should be a good one, going with the higher TF trend. Some tailwinds as I see it also: 1) the tarrif decision is perceived as good for the Eurozone, 2) Powell's replacement is seen as a lock for lower interest rate, 3) Trump wants lower interest rates to help with the trade imbalance, 4) the GDP miss yesterday shows an economy not as robust as thought.
  • #222,632
  • Feb 21, 2026 12:57pm Feb 21, 2026 12:57pm
Quoting vssfx
Yup thats what i do {image}
The trade i took on 18 Feb and made 5RR from it
Inserted Video
  • #222,633
  • Feb 21, 2026 1:47pm Feb 21, 2026 1:47pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H1 Plan for Monday I keep it simple.. No fancy charts.. No high tech colored photoshop visuals.. Just a plain old H1 chart! Trend on this TF has probably already shifted to bullish (based on macd divergence and my yellow zone violation) On Monday, I want to chase longs with every upcoming dip... but it can also get choppy if trend is still shifting! So I might trade mixed if I see fit. All depends on market flow. Anyway... that's all for now.. Keep enjoying your weekends folks.. Peace out... {image}
yes, my chart also has arrows with 50% pullback - no signs of going up yet
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  • #222,634
  • Feb 21, 2026 2:49pm Feb 21, 2026 2:49pm
Just a small update guys, I realized my strategy was way too reliant on discretion, and me being still very little experienced I was getting confused a lot, not in general idea, but in actual entry confluence. Thanks for the advices on backtesting, I’ve discovered that it was way too weak, and realized that in the long run based off pure strategy itself it didn’t have an edge. Implementing some crucial needed optimizations now! (Hope anybody that is in a similar condition to mine, can potentially find this message helpful!) See you guys tomorrow at monday open!
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #222,635
  • Feb 21, 2026 3:21pm Feb 21, 2026 3:21pm
Happy weekend to you all. Once 1.1757 is broken. Bear will take charge. Let's watch out this week.
  • #222,636
  • Feb 21, 2026 5:24pm Feb 21, 2026 5:24pm
Quoting oo7rai
{quote} yes, my chart also has arrows with 50% pullback - no signs of going up yet {image}
H4: Yes, and I am aware that there can be dangerous dips and forces that push for bearish continuation..

Therefore, I also will watch if we will have H4 support around ~1.1764... Any trader who risks going long must watch this area if it acts supportive or not... Failure can cause a drop to 1.1710 levels which would be a delayed arrival to my weekly target... So it should never be a blind buying mission... I will always be careful at these lows whenever there is a dip.. That's why I might keep a mixed mindset on Monday...

Time will tell..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #222,637
  • Feb 21, 2026 6:44pm Feb 21, 2026 6:44pm
Orighty. its ben a while but im back now
Keep It Simple
  • #222,638
  • Feb 22, 2026 2:56am Feb 22, 2026 2:56am
Inserted Video
  • #222,639
  • Feb 22, 2026 4:27am Feb 22, 2026 4:27am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick H1 Plan for Monday I keep it simple.. No fancy charts.. No high tech colored photoshop visuals.. Just a plain old H1 chart! Trend on this TF has probably already shifted to bullish (based on macd divergence and my yellow zone violation) On Monday, I want to chase longs with every upcoming dip... but it can also get choppy if trend is still shifting! So I might trade mixed if I see fit. All depends on market flow. Anyway... that's all for now.. Keep enjoying your weekends folks.. Peace out... {image}
is double bottom is also a reason for long opportunity?
  • #222,640
  • Feb 22, 2026 4:55am Feb 22, 2026 4:55am
Hey guys, after a lot of hard work both yesterday and on friday, along with a total revamp of my strategy, (no longer a gambling strategy lol) I finally feel confident again, like last year, where I in fact did not gamble.

so from my analysis, I actually agree with Ata. (I made my own analysis first, understood why certain things happened, then compared my charts to his (best way to do it imo))

however, it’s got slightly different values. From the 4hr chart, we can see that the support at 1.17427 actually held and the previous resistance at 1.18075 held as well. Price is now in balance between the two zones, so before doing anything, I would first wait for a clear directional move. Price is currently in the middle balance between those two lines, and 1.1775 seems to have actually held. Should price continue bearish, the next logical support line would be somewhere at 1.1673, which would also be the 4hr swing low that filled the january imbalance. However, if price decided to turn bullish (potentially boosted by fear of war) the next logical target would be 1.189, which would be the new resistance.

Have a great day, see you tomorrow!
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2000 elo sometimes...
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