Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

US 30 forecast: the index resumes growth

The US 30 index sees increased volatility, with the uptrend prevailing once again. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.6 in December
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately positive impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The rise in the ISM manufacturing PMI to 52.6 points, the highest level in approximately the past 40 months and well above the forecast and the previous reading, indicates a transition of the US industrial sector from contraction to expansion.

For the US 30 index, this news is generally positive. The index is heavily weighted towards real-sector companies and cyclical businesses that are sensitive to industrial conditions, domestic demand, and capital expenditures.

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JP 225 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has broken above the resistance level and reached a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan Tokyo core CPI declined to 2.00% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese stock market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

The decline in Tokyo core inflation to 2.0% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 2.2% and the previous reading of 2.3%, is perceived by the market as a signal of easing price pressure. For investors, this indicator is important not only in itself, but also as a guide to the likely trajectory of nationwide inflation and, accordingly, future decisions by the Bank of Japan.

For the JP 225 index, this signal is moderately positive in the baseline scenario. If the market concludes that the Bank of Japan will act more cautiously, this supports equity valuations through lower borrowing costs and more favourable financial conditions for businesses.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

EURUSD in doubt: lots of risks, but also lots of confidence

The EURUSD pair is hovering around 1.1793 at the end of the week as the US dollar remains in demand as a safe-haven asset. Discover more in our analysis for 6 February 2026.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. The EURUSD pair may resume its upward trajectory after a pause
2. Demand for the US dollar is driven by market interest in safe-haven assets
3. EURUSD forecast for 6 February 2026: 1.1760 or 1.1820

Fundamental analysis

On Friday, the EURUSD rate looks uninspiring, hovering around 1.1793. Demand for the US dollar has strengthened amid broad sell-offs in equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, which has fuelled interest in the currency as a safe-haven asset.

The USD also gained notable support after US President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chairman. Markets view Warsh as favouring balance sheet reduction and a more cautious approach to monetary easing. This has also helped ease concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index resumed growth after correction

The DE 40 stock index continues to recover after the correction, with the uptrend remaining intact. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Germany’s industrial production fell by 1.9% in January compared to December last year
2. Market impact: the data creates a negative backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

German industrial production data represents a significantly weaker-than-expected result, coming in at −1.9% m/m compared to expectations of −0.2% and the previous reading of +0.2%. For the DE 40 index, this typically implies a short-term deterioration in sentiment, as the indicator is directly linked to business activity, capacity utilisation, and future corporate earnings trends in an industry-oriented economy.

The short-term impact on the DE 40 is likely to be restraining. The index includes large companies that depend on the industrial cycle, external demand, and business investment activity. Weak output data increases the likelihood of downward revisions to profit expectations in cyclical sectors, which is typically reflected in a more cautious valuation of equities.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index enters downtrend

After reaching its all-time high, the US 500 has entered a downtrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US initial jobless claims totalled 231 thousand last week
2. Market impact: the data has a negative impact on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US initial jobless claims (231 thousand versus a forecast of 212 thousand and 209 thousand the previous week) provides a moderately negative short-term signal for the US 500 index, as it points to a more noticeable cooling of the labour market than the consensus expectation. At the same time, it is important to consider the scale: the level of claims remains below crisis levels and closer to the historically normal range.

For the US 500 index, the key factor in such conditions is typically the reaction of expectations regarding the Fed’s interest rate. If the market interprets the increase in claims as a factor reducing the likelihood of further monetary tightening, some of the negative impact on stocks may be offset through lower bond yields and improved valuations of companies’ future cash flows.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

Despite increased volatility, the US 30 index has reached a new all-time high. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US retail sales for January showed no growth, coming in at 0.0%
2. Market impact: the data has a mixed impact on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The release of US monthly retail sales at 0.0%, below expectations of 0.4% and a previous reading of 0.6%, forms a moderately negative macroeconomic signal for the US 30 index in the short term, as it indicates a noticeable cooling of consumer demand relative to market expectations.

This news is generally positive for the US 30 index. The structure of the index is largely oriented towards real-sector companies and cyclical businesses that are sensitive to industrial conditions, domestic demand, and capital expenditure.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

XAUUSD continues to rise: why the Fed will not be able to weaken gold in March

Employment growth and positive US economic data failed to provide sufficient support to the USD, while XAUUSD quotes continue to rise and are testing the 5,070 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 12 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US initial jobless claims: previously at 231 thousand, projected at 222 thousand
2. Change in US Nonfarm Payrolls: previously at 48 thousand, currently at 130 thousand
3. XAUUSD forecast for 12 February 2026: 5,280

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD forecast indicates that gold prices continue their upward trajectory, trading near 5,070 USD per ounce.

US initial jobless claims reflect the number of people who filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD on the verge of a breakout: how a decline in US CPI and RBA policy may strengthen the AUD

After testing the 2023 highs, the AUDUSD pair is forming a correction before a further rise. Quotes are hovering around 0.7050. Discover more in our analysis for 13 February 2026.

AUDUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US core Consumer Price Index: previously at 2.6%, projected at 2.5%
2. Inflation above 3.0% in Australia is unacceptable, according to the RBA
3. AUDUSD forecast for 13 February 2026: 0.7140

Fundamental analysis

Today’s AUDUSD forecast favours the Australian dollar, which has strong chances to continue recovering against the USD after completing the current correction. At this stage, the pair is trading around 0.7050.

The core CPI measures changes in the cost of goods and services from the consumer’s perspective. This index is a key gauge of consumer purchasing dynamics and inflation. Fundamental analysis for 13 February 2026 takes into account that the actual January core CPI reading may decline to 2.5% compared to the previous period, indicating easing inflationary pressure.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD in neutral: statistics will determine everything

The USDCAD pair stands at 1.3616 on Monday. The focus is on fresh inflation data from Canada. Find out more in our analysis for 16 February 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDCAD pair stabilised after last week’s volatility
2. Investors are focused on Canadian inflation data due on Tuesday
3. USDCAD forecast for 16 February 2026: 1.3490 or 1.3725

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD pair starts the week at 1.3616. Previously, the Canadian dollar declined moderately but managed to retain most of its weekly gains thanks to signals of slowing inflation in the US.

The focus is on Canada’s January CPI, scheduled for release on Tuesday. Annual inflation is expected to remain at 2.4%. This could influence expectations regarding the Bank of Canada’s future policy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index is trading sideways

The US 500 tested the support level and entered a sideways channel, although the downtrend still prevails. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 130 thousand in January
2. Market impact: the data negatively impacts the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of January US employment data forms a moderately positive yet mixed signal for the US 500 index. Job growth of 130 thousand versus an expected 66 thousand, along with a decline in unemployment to 4.3%, confirms economic resilience. This is important for the equity market, as a strong labour market typically supports consumer demand, corporate revenues, and earnings expectations for the coming quarters.

At the same time, this report reduces the likelihood of rapid monetary easing. Stronger employment and lower unemployment imply that the Federal Reserve has fewer reasons to move quickly towards rate cuts. This may be accompanied by higher Treasury yields and an increased cost of capital for businesses.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Buyers attempt to stabilise GBPUSD after the sell-off

The GBPUSD rate is correcting after a sharp decline, but weak UK labour market data continues to weigh on the pair. The rate currently stands at 1.3557. Find out more in our analysis for 18 February 2026.

GBPUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Weak labour market data increased pressure on the British pound
2. The market strengthened expectations of Bank of England rate cuts in the coming months
3. The unemployment rate rose to 5.2%, the highest since early 2021

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD pair is undergoing a correction after an aggressive decline in the previous session. However, buyers defended the key support level at 1.3525, allowing the pair to stabilise near local lows.

The British pound came under pressure following the release of weak UK labour market data, which reinforced expectations that the Bank of England may shift towards cutting interest rates in the coming months.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index has completed its correction

The JP 225 stock index has completed its correction after reaching a new all-time high and is poised to climb higher. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s GDP growth for Q4 2025 came in at 0.2% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

The published Japanese GDP data, at 0.2% year-on-year, compared to expectations of 1.6%, indicates a significantly weaker economic recovery than the market had anticipated. For the JP 225 index, this typically forms a moderately negative initial signal, as expectations for revenue growth among companies focused on domestic demand deteriorate and investor caution increases regarding the coming quarters.

According to Goldman Sachs, hedge funds have purchased the bulk of Asian equities over the past decade. Last week, emerging and developed Asian markets recorded the largest net hedge fund inflows since 2016, supported by optimism surrounding companies involved in artificial intelligence infrastructure.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

XAUUSD at a crossroads: US GDP and inflation could trigger a decline in gold prices

Gold (XAUUSD) continues to move sideways, trading around 5,000 USD. Find more details in our analysis for 20 February 2026.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. US Q4 GDP: previously at 4.4%, projected at 2.8%
2. US core PCE price index: previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.3%
3. XAUUSD forecast for 20 February 2026: 5,100 or 4,920

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast indicates that gold is forming a sideways wave after recent growth. At this stage, XAUUSD quotes are trading around 5,000 USD per ounce.

The XAUUSD outlook for 20 February 2026 takes into account the release of US GDP data. GDP represents the total value of all final goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on end products excluding the cost of raw materials.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD weekly forecast: bears are getting stronger, but there is still a chance for growth

The EURUSD pair enters the week of 23–27 February after declining to 1.1755 amid a stronger US dollar. Robust labour market data and more hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have reduced expectations for aggressive policy easing.

EURUSD forecast: key takeaways

1. Market focus: the EURUSD pair fell to 1.1755 amid a stronger US dollar
2. Current trend: the daily chart shows a medium-term uptrend
3. Weekly outlook: the baseline scenario suggests a continued correction within the uptrend

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD pair settled at 1.1755, with the US dollar supported by robust macroeconomic data and more hawkish signals from the Fed.

The labour market confirmed resilience: initial jobless claims fell to 206 thousand versus expectations of 223 thousand (previously 227 thousand). Continuing claims came in at 1.869 million compared to expectations of 1.860 million. In addition, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index unexpectedly rose to a five-month high.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent: buyers are building momentum ahead of new price surge

Brent crude prices continue to rise amid sustained technical strength and escalating geopolitical tensions, currently trading at 71.50 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 24 February 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

1. Investors are pricing in the likelihood of negative scenarios and increasing defensive positions
2. Prices are rising on expectations of escalating risks rather than actual supply disruptions
3. Further movement will depend on news from the US and Iran and overall geopolitical rhetoric

Fundamental analysis

Brent quotes have strengthened for the second consecutive session, although buyers continue to face strong resistance around 71.65 USD. While attempts to consolidate above this level have so far been unsuccessful, the technical outlook remains bullish. Previously, buyers broke above a Triangle pattern, maintaining the potential for further upward movement.

Geopolitics is currently the key market driver. Prices are rising mainly on expectations of escalating risks rather than actual supply reductions. Market participants are proactively pricing in negative scenarios and increasing defensive positions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the index is poised for trend reversal

In the US 30 index, prices are testing the support level and may break below it, which would signal the beginning of a downtrend. The US 30 forecast for today is negative.

US 30 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US manufacturing PMI came in at 51.2 in February
2. Market impact: the data has a mixed impact on the stock marke

Fundamental analysis

The release of the US manufacturing PMI at 51.2 points, below expectations of 52.4 and the previous reading of 52.4, is moderately negative for short-term sentiment, as it indicates a slowdown in the pace of industrial activity growth. However, the indicator remains above the 50-point threshold, meaning the sector is still formally expanding; the issue is more about a loss of momentum than a shift into contraction.

For the US 30, the impact is typically reflected in moderate pressure, as the index has significant exposure to industrial and cyclical companies, for which production rates, orders, and business confidence are key drivers of financial performance.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

The JP 225 stock index has once again reached a new all-time high after breaking above the resistance level. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: Japan’s core CPI increased by 2.0% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is restraining

Fundamental analysis

The release of Japan’s core inflation at 2.0% year-on-year, in line with the 2.0% forecast and down from the previous 2.4%, primarily signals a continued slowdown in price pressure and a move closer to the target level. Since the figure matched expectations, there was no surprise factor, and the immediate market reaction is typically limited.

For the JP 225 index, this news appears broadly neutral. Slower inflation reduces the likelihood of accelerated tightening by the Bank of Japan and lowers the risk of a sharp rise in domestic bond yields.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY in doubt: what will the BoJ ultimately decide

The USDJPY pair has declined to 155.79, with the Bank of Japan still providing no clear signals regarding its rate path. Discover more in our analysis for 27 February 2026.

USDJPY forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDJPY pair is edging lower, but overall, the yen is set to end the week with losses
2. Disagreements over the appropriate rate level persist within the BoJ and the government
3. USDJPY forecast for 27 February 2026: 155.30 or 157.60

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is retreating to 155.79 on Friday. Although the yen is strengthening intraday, the Japanese currency remains under pressure on a weekly basis and risks posting a second consecutive weekly decline. This is largely due to uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s policy outlook.

The government has nominated two academic representatives to the central bank’s board, both known for favouring a dovish approach. During a meeting with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed concern about possible further rate hikes.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD follows oil and gold: the Canadian dollar gains ground

The USDCAD pair opened March and the spring season at 1.3649, with the market focused on commodity markets and the trajectory of the US dollar. Find out more in our analysis for 2 March 2026.

USDCAD forecast: key takeaways

1. The USDCAD pair is declining in response to rallies in gold and oil
2. Canada’s GDP came in weak, showing the softest performance since 2020
3. USDCAD forecast for 2 March 2026: 1.3610

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate is hovering around 1.3649 on Monday. Last Friday, the Canadian dollar recovered most of its monthly losses amid broad US dollar weakness.

Additional support for the CAD came from rising gold prices and a weakening US dollar. The strengthening of the precious metal adds to pressure on the USD, pushing the USDCAD pair lower. Financial flows at the end of the month also played a role, with the Canadian dollar losing about 0.1% in February.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index may enter a downtrend

Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US 500 has resumed its decline. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key takeaways

1. Recent data: US ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 52.4 in February 2026
2. Market impact: the data has a neutral effect on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The release of the ISM manufacturing PMI at 52.4 points, above a forecast of 51.7, is a moderately positive development for the US 500 index. A reading above 50.0 indicates continued expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a stronger-than-expected figure reduces concerns about a sharp economic slowdown.

For the US 500, this typically translates into moderate gains or more confident price action amid improved sentiment, though not necessarily into a sharp rally. It is important to note that a single PMI release rarely changes the broader market narrative.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team