EURUSD only

I’ve taken another closer look at the U.S. data, and it still stands the numbers weren’t as strong as they initially appeared. But here comes the big “however”: the Eurozone is by no means in better shape. On the contrary, given the tense situation especially in Germany, which receives little attention in mainstream media the outlook there arguably looks worse.

That leaves me in a real dilemma and makes me structurally quite bearish on the euro over the longer term. Short term, however, it could still move higher. That said, the current price action doesn’t convince me that there’s much upside left. My absolute maximum upside target would be somewhere around 1.22–1.23, but the more time passes, the more I doubt that scenario.

Technically speaking, there are significant hurdles in the 1.1880–1.1920 zone that won’t be cleared easily again. Price already demonstrated that this week. We also shouldn’t ignore the fact that EURUSD has been in a downtrend since January 27 (D1), with substantial room still available to the downside.

Conclusion: If price fails this week to break and sustain a daily close above 1.1920, I would rather expect another sharp drop toward the 1.16xx area.
For now, I still slightly favor the long side but probably not for much longer.

Sorry for off-topic folks....
On M5 I often detect and draw the most recent channel... I wait for a breakout or a spike that can not touch M5 channel edges...

I hope it answers...

Let's focus on EURUSD... Thanks

I agree with you Leser, it might become a battle of which is weaker! That being said, I think EXY has plenty of room to go up if we break past these long term resistance levels (I am thinking all the way to 140). The DXY is also showing signs of weakness, I have shared before that the DXY is destined to go to sub 90 levels.

Global economies are shifting away from the Dollar. It is no longer a safe haven, which is why we see Gold getting bought in crazy amounts. What I am thinking is a very large and serious issue, new global superpowers and changing world order incoming... Let's just hope the exchange of power can be done peacefully (though the wars have already started).

Well, a contrarian view today. lol Price recovered after the NFP release from the time of the release to the bottom of the wick and retraced at least halfway back up in that 15 minute candle which looks like a liquidity grab manipulated on the 'news'. The top half of the candle was a 'sweep' which causes a cascading effect and it is compounded by all the longs that got trapped way up there during the London session (where I sold on the "Bull Elephant 180") mentioned in a thread somewhere? I watch a tick chart and I can unequivocally say that there was a shitload more transactions that took place in the wick portion of that candle. The 'Body' of that candle ripped down in a couple of minutes and the wick was a battlefield with plenty of action. (I count at least 3 if not 4 EUR/USD 'ONLY' threads and can never remember what I said where... and wish grownups could all gather in one thread to share just insight on the pair and not TDS bullshit.) Even now after taking a double dip down pre London session this morning price is not far from 1.18935 where the move up got rejected yesterday mid-NY session. I'm wondering if the 'jobless' claims at 8:30 won't have the opposite affect (or effect-confusing at times) to manipulate a move in the opposite direction? Big $$$ will ALWAYS do what it does.... whatever it wants to happen. Follow the money. Edit: I just captured a tick chart with a 'sweep' used to flush out liquidity.

i think I entered this market way too late!!! hope it gets to the 1.19230 so I can pull out

After reviewing the latest macro data and overall economic conditions, I personally see the U.S. economy as structurally stronger than the Eurozone at the moment.
From a growth perspective, the U.S. continues to show relatively solid GDP expansion, supported by strong consumer demand and a resilient labour market. Employment conditions remain stable, wage growth is holding up, and domestic spending continues to support economic activity. Higher interest rates in the U.S. also provide a clear yield advantage, which continues to attract capital flows toward the dollar.
On the other hand, the Eurozone still faces several structural challenges. Growth remains weak, manufacturing activity — particularly in Germany — continues to struggle, and energy costs remain a long-term pressure for European industry. Consumer demand also appears softer compared to the U.S., and overall economic momentum remains limited.
Another important factor is inflation dynamics. Inflation in the Eurozone has been easing faster compared to the U.S., which increases the likelihood that the ECB may move toward rate cuts earlier or more aggressively than the Fed. This potential divergence in monetary policy could further widen yield differentials and continue to support the dollar from a structural perspective.
Because of this divergence in growth, inflation trends, yield differentials, and capital flows, the macro backdrop continues to favor the U.S. over the Eurozone from a longer-term perspective.
That said, this does not rule out short-term bullish moves in EURUSD, especially driven by positioning, liquidity dynamics, or expectations around future Fed policy. However, structurally speaking, the broader economic balance still appears to lean in favor of the U.S. economy.

Price closed above. Price currently pulling back slightly, so placing a limit order @1.188 with a close stop @1.187. TP @1.19624

I trade mainly on news/economics, liquidity and intuition. i believe we will head for 1.18200 from the USD news this week before a real retracement again to the upside. my entry was horrible. of course london was going for asian highs.

1H chart and 30s chart are looking identical. I am going to try and be a wizard here and see how this 30s chart acts, and apply the same movement theory to the 1H chart.

edit: theory failed lmao worth the try
edit 2: theory HOLDS, heck yeah

This would be a good video to help you. what you did is 'normal' behavior.

Can you smell the smoke?

I 100% agree with this comment and even if this is happening right now and Big$$$ will need time to 'rollover' their huge positions before a significant shift. The Daily with the 20-50-200 MA's (used for directional bias) are still EUR-ish IMHO. The blue background boxes are essentially monthly candles.

lol

for me, no upside direction yet

Your entries and exits look immaculate brother, good stuff!

Selling the market.

First target 1.18330

Hope everyone is having an amazing day!

H1: 1.1880 area is now failing to resist... careful with shorting!

*I personally postpone selling... 1.1905 area seems to be much better to risk selling... No rush!

Four trades in the bag, daily target and half of tomorrows met already. Been a good week for me. hand sitting now till 8:30

Here we go... bears coming in hot... I postponed selling because I think we will at least have 1 spike that tries to touch 1.1900 area before it continues lower... That's when I want to enter short... Probably it will happen at the time when red data comes out... Let's see.. 33 more minutes!