Compounding the Edge / Trading Journal

I will be journaling here my journey from a modest account to, hopefully, a seven-figure balance within the next couple of years.

My strategy is based on liquidity and imbalance on EURUSD — simple, rules-based and effective.

Strategy rules

1. I wait for a H4 fractal to be taken
2. Then drop to H1 and wait for a market structure shift confirmed by an H1 candle close
3. Entries are taken on H1 or H4 at an imbalance (regular or inverted), formed during the structure shift
4. Stop loss covers the freshly created swing high / low
5. Target is always 2R
6. Trades are entered between 08:00 and 23:00 CET

Backtesting results
The strategy has been thoroughly backtested to confirm its edge:

1. Period: 159 months (since January 2013)
2. Trades: 1,185 (≈ 7.5 trades/month)
3. Average net R gain per month: +3.5R
4. Average stop loss: 47.9 pips
5. Win rate: 46%
6. Expectancy: 0.47R
7. Average trade duration: 2.2 days

Best winning month: +12.3R
Worst losing month: −4R

More details in post #27

Capital & risk plan
On January 1st, 2026, I funded the account with 10,000 PLN (~$2,900).
I will risk 5% per trade and compound the account.
If January, February and March are cumulatively profitable and I properly follow my plan, I will add another 10,000 PLN.
The same applies after another three months, with the next planned capital injection at the beginning of July.


Long-term outlook
Monte Carlo simulations suggest that, at the median distribution, I should reach my first 1,000,000 PLN (~$270k) within 2–3 years.


Purpose of this journal
I will document my trades, decisions and observations here as I work to stay disciplined and focused during this long and demanding challenge.

I have data to support my conviction, a clear plan and the determination to see it through.

Trade 1 – Loss
A clean setup that followed the plan perfectly.

After two H4 fractals were swept at a daily POI (FVG), I waited for the H1 market structure shift and placed a limit entry at the H4 FVG. Everything aligned according to rules.
Price then bled slowly against the position and eventually tagged full SL this afternoon.

With a ~46% win rate, a loss is just as probable as a win. No emotions attached. Of course, starting with a 2R winner would’ve been nicer, but that’s irrelevant.

Execution and trade management were spot on, so I count this as a process win.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 2: +2R (Short)
2. Trade 3: -1R (Loss)

This week, I executed two trades:

1. Monday Short: Triggered by an H4 fractal sweep at a high-timeframe point of interest (Weekly iFVG), confirmed by an H1 market structure shift to the downside.
2. Tuesday Long: Initiated after a double H4 fractal manipulation and aggressive reversal at Daily Demand (OB), a favorable location for a bullish setup.

Since my playbook allows opening two concurrent trades in opposite directions, I entered both with confidence. I expected that one would hit its target while the other might get stopped out, aiming for a net gain of ~1R—which is exactly what happened.

Patience paid off. After four days, price reached the full TP on my short position while stopping out the long. I’ll happily take a 1R profit any day, but what I’m particularly proud of is my trade and emotion management. I did notice I was watching the trades play out more than necessary—a habit I’m working to improve—but I allowed them to reach their final TP and SL. From a process-following perspective, this was a clear win.

Looking ahead, with H4 and Daily fractals cleared, a potential long setup may be forming. However, I’ll wait for a strong H1 candle close above a lower high to confirm a shift in price delivery before considering entry at a subsequent imbalance—sticking to my entry criteria.

Overall, I’m very pleased with my performance this week. I acted professionally, trusted my plan, and let the trades play out as intended.

On to the next one!

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 4: +2R

The new week kicked off with a textbook winning trade—clean, precise, and well managed from start to finish.

Price reacted perfectly at my pre-marked H4 point of interest. The trade experienced only a brief and minimal drawdown, lasting no more than a couple of minutes, before moving cleanly in my favor.

All the concepts that form the foundation of my trading model played out exactly as expected: a clear liquidity grab, followed by a market structure shift, a pullback to mitigate the POI, and continuation in the new direction. Clockwork execution.

This setup was also a great example of AMD (Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution).
From last Thursday, price consolidated in a tight range, followed by a late Friday / early Monday manipulation of that range, and then a clean expansion through Monday and Tuesday. A beautiful structure to watch unfold.

Strong start to the week—let’s see what the rest of it brings.

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 5: -0.5R

Tuesday evening presented a valid short setup following a sweep of three H4 fractals and an H1-confirmed market structure shift to the downside.
An H1 doji with a 35-pip wick signaled a potential intermediate reversal, making this a solid countertrend opportunity.

Due to being at the cinema, I entered slightly late at an H1 FVG. However, the higher entry price actually worked in my favor, so there was no negative impact on the trade.

The trade itself was a bit of a rollercoaster. Price initially moved in my direction, then reversed and manipulated an H1 fractal above my entry before dropping aggressively and breaking structure. That break was my signal to reduce risk, as my rules require a confirmed H1 fractal sweep and market structure shift before moving stop loss to breakeven or fully mitigating risk.

After reaching a daily imbalance at the 50% level of the currently bullish A–B leg, price reversed once more. Throughout the following session, price slowly climbed and eventually hit my stop loss at a reduced risk of -0.5R.
I anticipated this outcome and watched the trade move from a peak of +1.2R to a -0.5R loss. Still, I’m not in the business of predicting the future—only reacting to what price presents, identifying my playbook signals, and executing accordingly.
Had a long setup appeared—such as a swept H4 fractal at discount levels—I would have taken it without hesitation. That scenario didn’t materialize, so I followed my rules to the letter and accepted the loss.

I’m completely satisfied with my execution and consider this trade a win from a process-following perspective.

On to the next one!

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 6: -1R

The week closed with a full loss following an unsuccessful attempt to short EUR/USD.

I was skeptical about this setup from the start. A weak high was in place, with an H4 fractal sitting above the newly formed swing—an obvious liquidity target and a clear potential invalidation for a short bias.
That said, all the required conditions from my playbook were present: H4 fractal liquidity was swept, followed by an H1 candle close confirming a market structure shift and creating an imbalance for entry on the pullback.

Initially, price moved aggressively in my favor and once again reached around +1.2R. However, the move abruptly reversed and hit my stop loss roughly half an hour after entry.

Despite my initial doubts, I executed the trade exactly as planned once the signal printed.
If I want to replicate my backtested results—which I’m confident will compound significantly over the coming years—I need to put emotions aside and execute flawlessly. That’s exactly what I did here, and I’m genuinely proud of that.

One caveat worth noting: my original sell limit order was not executed due to margin constraints. With a tight 12-pip stop loss and a fixed 5% risk per trade, I couldn’t place the order as intended. Instead, I manually entered two market positions (0.5 and 0.25 lots) to approximate my planned risk, ultimately having to risk slightly less to get involved.
While this was frustrating in the moment, it’s not a major concern. Such tight stop losses are rare in my system—my average SL is closer to 47 pips. Still, it’s a valuable reminder to be cautious when trading sub-20-pip stops.

For the month, my strategy currently sits at +0.5R, which aligns closely with my broker account—an encouraging sign that disciplined execution can replicate theoretical results very accurately.
Although January hasn’t been particularly profitable so far, there’s still one full trading week left. I plan to stay focused and professional and extract whatever the market offers. There are already potential short opportunities lining up early next week, especially if price sweeps the cluster of 5+ H4 fractals sitting above current levels.
Looking forward to seeing how this plays out.

Looking back at the previous 11 Januaries since 2015, 2026 currently ranks as the second worst, with only 2015 posting a lower result at -1R. Interestingly, the average January performance across those years is a solid +3.9R, slightly above my overall monthly average of +3.6R.

With five trading days still left this month, anything can happen.

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 7: +2R

The final trade of January was a short taken after several strongly bullish sessions. While upside momentum was clearly dominant, a sell signal printed at an excellent higher-timeframe location, with price tapping into both daily and weekly imbalances—ideal conditions to look for a potential reversal.

Entry was taken after H1 structure shifted bearish, using a limit order at an H1 inverse FVG. The order was triggered around 1:00 AM CET on Thursday, January 29th.
The trade experienced only a very brief drawdown and ultimately took three days—including a weekend hold—to reach the full 2R target, resulting in a move of approximately 200 pips.
My target aligned with both H4 and daily FVGs positioned around key Fibonacci levels of the current bullish A–B leg, providing strong additional confluence.
Shorting into a market that had just delivered such an aggressive bullish expansion—while targeting a 200-pip move—is obviously not something most traders would be comfortable with. I simply followed my playbook, trusted the process, and allowed the strategy to do its job.

A great way to close out the month.

January 2026 Recap

I consider the first month of 2026 a clear win.
My strategy presented seven valid entries, and I participated in all of them. What I’m most proud of this month is my trade management—I did not close a single trade prematurely out of fear or greed. Every trade was allowed to reach its originally planned TP or SL.
This has been a long-standing weakness in my trading, so seeing real progress here feels significant. I’m finally allowing my strategy to play out fully and deliver its intended performance.

January Stats

1. Trades: 7
   (In line with the monthly average of 7.4)
2. Winning trades: 3 (+6R)
3. Losing trades (full): 3 (-3R)
4. Losing trades (partial): 1 (-0.5R)
5. Net R result: +2.5R
   (31% below the strategy’s monthly average of +3.6R and ~40% below the historical January average of +4.2R, based on data since 2014)
6. Win rate: 43%
   (Slightly below the monthly average of 47%)
7. Average SL: 45 pips
   (In line with the monthly average of 46.9 pips)
8. Average hold: 1.7 days
   (Excluding entry day; below the average of 2.2 days)
9. Weekend holds: 1 trade
   (Well below the monthly average of 2.2)

Summary
January was an average month in terms of trade frequency and trade characteristics, but below average in R performance when compared to both a typical month and historical January results.

There were no prolonged losing streaks, and the system avoided any meaningful drawdowns—which is a strong positive. Ideally, I’d like to see 2–3 consecutive winners to push the balance higher before a loss, but that’s wishful thinking, not trading.
All I can do is show up and execute when a signal appears. I executed 100% of my plan in January and will build on this consistency in February and the months ahead.


February is the shortest month of the year, and I’ll be traveling in Asia for roughly half of it. The time difference—especially around the late NY session—may make execution slightly more challenging. Still, my strategy requires only a few minutes of chart time per day, and I’m determined to take every valid setup that presents itself. This remains the equity-building phase of my journey.

Mindset Takeaway
January reinforced a simple but powerful truth: consistent execution matters more than short-term results. Even with a below-average R return, removing emotional interference and allowing trades to reach their predefined outcomes represents meaningful progress. Equity growth is a byproduct of disciplined behavior repeated over time—not prediction, not forcing trades, and not chasing performance. As long as I continue to execute every valid signal with professionalism and emotional neutrality, the statistics will inevitably play out in my favor.

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 8: -1R

The first trade of February turned into a bit of a rollercoaster.
After being triggered at an H1 FVG, price initially moved against me to around -0.8R, then reversed sharply and pushed up to approximately +1.4R as it tapped into a daily bearish imbalance aligned with key Fibonacci levels.
That level proved to be impenetrable. Price stalled, rolled over, and began a slow grind lower, eventually stopping me out at a slightly reduced-risk stop (including swaps).

During the decline, a bearish inverted flag formed and broke to the downside, confirming continuation in the bearish direction. I observed the structure develop and even had an opportunity to manually exit at breakeven when price retested the flag after the breakout. However, I took no action. My strategy does not allow discretionary interference based on opposing POIs or candlestick patterns once a trade is live.
I followed my playbook to the letter, and the result was a full loss. A monetary loss, yes—but a clear process win. I would make the exact same decision again, because for me, process is king.


Looking ahead, another potential long setup may present itself. Price is currently approaching a manipulation of two H4 fractal swing points at key higher-timeframe Fibonacci levels—an even stronger location to look for longs. If it unfolds, I’ll be ready to execute.

Psychologically, I feel great after this trade. Another process win logged.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap:

1. Trade 9: +2R

A perfectly executed winning long based on a clear Accumulation → Manipulation → Distribution (AMD) pattern that developed throughout the entire previous week.

From late Monday, price consolidated within a tight ~60-pip range. Between Tuesday and Thursday, liquidity continued to build on both sides of the range—clearly engineered positioning ahead of the eventual expansion.

During the Friday Asian session, price manipulated three H4 fractals at the range low and then reversed sharply, breaking H1 structure to the upside. The London session open provided a clean entry at an H1 inverse FVG.

The trade played out beautifully over Friday and, following a weekend hold, reached the full 2R target this morning just ahead of the Frankfurt open.

The location of this setup was anything but random. The Friday early-morning manipulation tapped directly into the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the higher-timeframe bullish leg, aligning perfectly with H4, daily and weekly imbalances—strong additional confluence.

Execution was flawless with zero deviation from the plan, resulting in a clean win.
A great way to start the week.

On to the next one!

Trade Recap

1. Trade 10: -1R
2. Trade 11: -1R

The final two trades of February were taken while I was still traveling in Sri Lanka. Unfortunately, both resulted in full losses following two unsuccessful attempts to long EUR/USD.

Trade 10
The February 18th long was triggered after a manipulation of an H4 fractal at key Fibonacci levels, aligned with an H4 sell-to-buy POI. There was also significant “phantom” trendline liquidity resting above, which added confidence to the setup.
I placed a pending buy order according to plan. Price consolidated briefly, then aggressively pushed lower and stopped me out for a full -1R loss.

Execution was clean. The trade followed my plan precisely—no emotional interference, no hesitation, no deviation.

Trade 11
The following week presented another long opportunity. Price swept a double H4 fractal and delivered an aggressive push higher, leaving behind both H1 and H4 FVGs for potential entry. This occurred after tapping into a daily inside bar at the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the higher-timeframe bullish A–B leg—an ideal location to look for longs.
I placed a pending order per my playbook and was triggered around the London Open.
Price then consolidated for the remainder of the week, forming a roughly 60-pip range. Liquidity was clearly being engineered on both sides, with no decisive expansion.

Over the weekend, geopolitical tensions escalated as Israel and the US launched strikes on Iran. I anticipated a gap at the weekly open—which occurred exactly as expected. I was hoping for a gap up, but the market had different plans.
After a gap down and partial mitigation during the Asian session, price continued lower aggressively and stopped me out at 7 AM CET for another full -1R loss.

Reflection
Two consecutive losses are never ideal—but with a win rate around 50%, they are statistically normal.

What matters is that I remained composed, executed according to plan and stayed emotionally neutral throughout. No second-guessing, no impulsive decisions. From a process standpoint, this was professional execution.

These trades effectively summarize February, which closed at -1R net for the strategy. I’ll post a full monthly breakdown next.

A new month has begun. The focus remains the same: discipline, execution and trust in the process.

There’s always sunshine after the storm.
On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 12: -1R
2. Trade 13: -0.6R

Unfortunately, the losing streak continued as March opened with two more consecutive losses following unsuccessful attempts to both long and short EUR/USD.
Both trades were executed exactly according to my strategy, which means that from a process perspective they are still wins.
Each setup followed the same core principle: H4 fractal manipulation → H1 market structure shift → entry at the H1 or H4 imbalance created during the structure break. Nothing in the strategy changed—this is simply variance playing out.

With four consecutive losses, my equity has dipped slightly below the initial deposit, which obviously isn’t a pleasant feeling. Statistically, the probability of a four-loss streak in my system, which has a 47% win rate, is around 7.9%, meaning it should occur roughly once in every 13 trade sequences.
Understanding the mathematics behind my strategy helps me navigate periods like this.
While such streaks are relatively unlikely, they are still part of the distribution—and the market is simply demonstrating that reality right now. My job is to remain focused on the process rather than the outcome, trust the data, and execute flawlessly so the edge can eventually play out.

Of course, this is not the start to the equity-building phase that I hoped for. Ideally, I would prefer to see steady incremental gains and a gradually rising equity curve. But trading doesn’t operate in a world of hopes—it operates in a world of probabilities, randomness, and constantly shifting scenarios.

Instead, I choose to focus on the positives. Periods like this help build the psychological endurance required for the long term. When the account eventually grows into multiple digits, these inevitable losing streaks will need to be handled with composure and minimal emotional impact. Experiences like this help build that resilience.

I remain fully committed to executing my playbook regardless of recent results. Trading is a game with no memory—previous trades do not influence future ones. Each new setup is simply another independent event, much like roulette, except with the odds slightly tilted in my favor thanks to a tested and validated strategy.

I’ll post my February recap tomorrow.
For now, it’s time to call it a night, put these losers to sleep, and wake up tomorrow with a fresh mind ready for the next opportunity.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 14: -0.1R

A relatively quick reduced-risk loss (-0.1R) on this long attempt following a double H4 fractal manipulation and a confirmed H1 market structure shift to the upside.
The trade was executed on thebreak and retest of the New Week Opening Gap, which aligned well with my entry criteria.

Price action shortly after entry allowed me to reduce risk according to my BE/risk-reduction rules, which I followed precisely. The market later pulled back and stopped me out at the reduced-risk level.

Interestingly, I still believe price may continue higher from this region. However, I chose not to deviate from my strategy by leaving the full risk on the table. The process comes first—not the outcome of a single trade.

Another process win, even though it resulted in a small monetary loss.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 15: +2R

Finally—after more than 30 days without a winner (the previous one being on February 6th) and five consecutive losses—the strategy delivered a clean 2R win. One of those losses was a minor -0.1R, but it still counted as part of the streak.

This trade followed the playbook perfectly: H4 fractal manipulation at a daily FVG, followed by a structure break and a clean entry at an H1 imbalance.
After triggering the entry, price moved decisively in my direction. The trade spent very little time in drawdown and eventually reached the full 2R target near the end of the day.

It feels great to finally see some sunshine after a cloudy period and log a solid win.
That said, regardless of the outcome, the real victory remains the same: perfect execution. Over the past 15 trades across two and a half months, I have not deviated from my strategy once or made emotionally driven decisions. That level of consistency is something I’m genuinely proud of.

For now, March still sits slightly negative at -0.1R, but there’s plenty of time left in the month.
Let’s see what the trading gods have planned for the remainder of it.
On to the next one.

February 2026 Recap

I’ll start with the key insight from the second month of 2026: a clean sheet in terms of execution and discipline.
There was not a single deviation from my plan, which makes the month satisfying from a process perspective—even though it ended with a monetary loss of 725 PLN (-1R).
My strategy produced only four valid trade opportunities, and I participated in all of them. For the second consecutive month, I allowed the system to play out exactly as designed. Unfortunately, the statistical outcome for February was simply poor.

February Stats

- Trades: 4
(Well below the monthly average of 7.4)
- Winning trades: 1 (+2R)
- Losing trades: 3 (-3R)
- Net result: -1R
(This marks one of only 20 negative months out of 146 backtested months, and just the second losing February in my historical data. Over the past 12 years, February has delivered an average gain of +4R, making this month a clear statistical outlier rather than the norm.)
- Win rate: 25%
(Well below the long-term average of 47% and the February average of 48%)
- Average SL: 40.8 pips
(Slightly below the long-term average of 46.9 pips)
- Average hold: 2 days
(Excluding entry day; slightly below the average of 2.2 days)
- Weekend holds: 2 trades
(In line with the monthly average of 2.2)

Summary
February was clearly a negative deviation from the norm when compared to both the overall monthly performance and the historical average for this particular month.
Interestingly, the low number of trade opportunities actually worked in my favor, as I spent a large portion of the month traveling in Sri Lanka. It allowed me to relax, reset mentally, and maintain a healthy distance from the charts.

Despite the negative financial outcome, I’m very satisfied with my consistency in execution and trade management.
This was simply one of those months where the job is to grind through the variance, keep your head down, and stay focused on the process rather than the results.
Negative months are inevitable in trading, and experiencing one early in the journey is actually valuable. It forces you to confront the emotional side of losses and develop the resilience required to survive long-term.

I view this month as a relatively inexpensive lesson—one that will strengthen my discipline, reinforce my process-driven mindset, and ultimately make me a better trader in the months and years ahead.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 16: -1R

A quick full loss following a short attempt on EUR/USD.
Price tapped into an H4 supply zone (buy-to-sell), manipulated an H4 fractal pre-Frankfurt open, and then aggressively moved lower, breaking H1 structure to the downside. This provided my signal to place a pending sell order at a fresh H1 imbalance.
I was triggered into the trade around 10 AM CET, but unfortunately, price reversed shortly after and stopped me out within approximately two hours.

Due to already holding a long position, combined with a relatively tight stop loss of 16 pips, I wasn’t able to allocate my standard 5% risk because of margin constraints. I entered with a 0.7 lot position, resulting in an actual loss of around -0.8R. However, I still categorize this as a full -1R loss, as that was the intended risk based on the setup.
Situations like this are likely to occur from time to time—especially with tighter stop losses in the 20–30 pip range—where margin limits prevent full risk allocation across multiple positions. It’s simply part of the constraints of execution.

The plan was followed exactly, with no emotional interference.

Now it’s a matter of seeing how the open long position develops.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 17: -0.3R

Another loss—this time a partial (-0.3R)—after what initially looked like a well-developing long setup.

The process remained unchanged: H4 fractal sweep → H1 market structure break → entry at H4 imbalance. Everything aligned according to my playbook.

There is still clean weekly fractal liquidity sitting roughly 20 pips below the current H4 low. This raises the possibility that the upside move I attempted to capitalize on was simply an inducement—designed to trap buyers before a move lower into that liquidity. Whether that plays out should become clear within the next session or two.
That said, my role is not to predict market direction. My job is to identify repeatable, backtested patterns and execute them flawlessly when they appear—and that’s exactly what I did here. Another process win, even if the outcome was a loss and further evidence that the strategy is currently experiencing a stretch of unfavorable variance.

With this trade, the account balance has dipped back to the initial level (10,000 PLN). Not ideal, but part of the journey.
The focus remains unchanged: stay disciplined, stay consistent and continue executing. Performance is the only variable I can control.

See you at the charts tomorrow.

Missed Opportunity

Unfortunately, I made my first real execution mistake in a while and missed a very clean short setup.

Earlier in the day, I entered a short (Trade 16) which ended in a loss. Shortly after being stopped out, price aggressively dropped and broke structure to the downside again, leaving behind a clear imbalance. This should have been my signal to re-enter.
The second opportunity developed within 2–3 hours of the first trade and followed the exact same model:
H4 fractal high sweep → H1 break of structure → FVG → entry.

So why didn’t I take it?

A couple of reasons:

1. Lack of presence: I wasn’t at my desk during the key moment. I should have had alerts set to notify me and allow me to act—this is a clear process flaw on my part.
2. Hesitation after a loss: When I later saw the setup, I hesitated. I had already taken a loss earlier in the day and was still in an opposing long position that was likely to be stopped out (at reduced risk).

Had I been fully focused, I would have calculated that my total exposure was still within my daily limit (2R) and taken the trade without hesitation. In fact, this second setup was arguably even stronger, as it cleared out early sellers (myself included), providing additional fuel for the move lower—which is exactly what followed.

On top of that, there was strong confluence: previous week’s low, current week’s low, and an old weekly fractal all aligned as downside targets, acting as a clear liquidity magnet.

Reflection
This is a valuable lesson. The issue here wasn’t strategy—it was execution and availability.
I need to implement stricter processes (alerts, structured check-ins) to ensure I don’t miss valid setups, especially when I’m away from the charts.

While it’s frustrating to miss such a clean move, I’m choosing to treat it as part of the learning curve. Mistakes like this are inevitable, and the key is to identify them, correct them, and move forward.

If anything, this has made me even more determined to stay disciplined and approach the next trade with a clear head and no emotional baggage.

On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 18: +2R

What a rollercoaster this trade turned out to be.
I was triggered into this long around 4 PM CET last Thursday after price created an imbalance while breaking structure to the upside following an H4 fractal sweep. Price dipped slightly into the FVG, tapped me in and then exploded higher.
Unfortunately, the move stalled just 2 pips below my take profit before reversing and slowly grinding lower throughout Friday and into Monday morning. Watching price come that close to TP and then pull back was, without a doubt, painful.

Then, things flipped completely.
Following Trump’s tweet regarding Iran around noon, price once again surged aggressively to the upside and finally hit my full 2R target, ending the trade and rewarding my patience.

Reflection
I’ll be honest—this trade hit a weak spot psychologically.
I’m approaching the end of the first three months of my challenge (10k PLN → 1M PLN), and so far, the equity curve hasn’t shown the steady growth I had envisioned. It’s been a tough period for the strategy and this trade pushed that frustration to the surface.

What made a huge difference today was support. My wife reminded me to stay grounded in the data-driven approach—this is simply a period of unfavorable variance, not a flaw in the system. Moments like this are part of the journey, and they need to be pushed through.
It actually reminded me of The Shawshank Redemption—Andy Dufresne crawling through the tunnel to eventually reach freedom. Not pleasant, but necessary. That’s what this phase feels like. If I stay committed to the process, the long-term outcome should take care of itself.

Another key realization came from something she said after TP was hit:
I’m watching my trades too much.
She’s absolutely right. Constantly monitoring price adds unnecessary emotional strain without adding any edge. Going forward, I’ll rely more on alerts (TradingView) for key events—risk reduction, breakeven triggers, SL/TP hits—and spend less time watching every tick.

Takeaway
This was more than just a winning trade. It was a test of patience, discipline and emotional control—and despite the internal struggle, I held the position and let the plan play out.

A green day, but more importantly, a valuable lesson.
On to the next one.

Trade Recap

1. Trade 19: +2R

A solid 2R winner following an H4 fractal sweep and an early Wednesday break of structure.

The ideal entry was at an H1 imbalance, with a trigger around 8 AM CET. However, I have to admit I initially missed this opportunity. My focus was anchored on the weekly high formed on Monday, which caused me to overlook the fractal sweep—an obvious execution mistake.
This is something I plan to address by clearly marking all nearby H4 fractals and setting alerts, ensuring I don’t miss similar setups in the future.

Fortunately, price stalled at the H1 imbalance throughout the entire London session, giving me a second chance. I entered around the New York Open once I identified the manipulation, structure break and confirmation signal. The entry ended up being only about 2 pips worse than the optimal level.

From there, price moved cleanly in my favor with virtually no drawdown, and the full 2R target was hit on Thursday, March 26th around noon CET.

While the outcome was positive, this was not a perfect trade due to the missed initial entry.
That said, I capitalized on the second opportunity and executed well from that point onward.

I am currently still holding a long position opened earlier this week, and with price now reaching an H1 inverse FVG at the extreme of the current H4 bullish A–B leg, I’m looking for a potential bullish continuation.
If it plays out, it could present another positive opportunity for the strategy.

Regardless of the outcome, I followed my playbook fully on that position, which allows me to stay at ease.

Let’s see what the market delivers next.