Only EURUSD

But right now I'm also getting sell signals, Will bulls take control from 1.1815 or will bears take it further down?
Soa let's see what happens!

yea not looking good for bull!

EU cpi missed today, so ECB should sound more dovish tomorrow. If and us ADP and us Ism services come well for the dollar then I expect serious drawdown! Take care

Mr. T any views on UJ?

Quoting Js3mwtRc

Disliked

{quote} Some off topic but you have traded other markets and know the pros and cons of trading them, but you are trading EURUSD why!

Ignored

Off topic in the slow hours so I deleted it. Some Forex markets are incredibly diverse and liquid, short answer.

waiting for it to drop. but might get above 700 first. put it to breakeven if your'e already in and look for shorts again above 700 if you get taken out

Eu cpi > miss
Us ADP > miss

Eurusd sidelines!

Us Ism left to save the dollar!

It's slowing down now. Should be a nice consolidation now between 50% (1.1800) and 61.8% (1.1745) before it continues it's downward path. And if you dabble in other markets, as the USD gets stronger, other markets... It's all lining up, wars, protests, weak US economy, and high US treasury rates, US government shutdowns'. Bad news = good news for USD

History doesn't repeat itself but it does rhyme - Mark Twain

Happy trades to you,
NB

ask @iamhewho for a link to his discord. I'm in there for 3 or 4wks depending on my dads hospital visits. he goes for chemo but dont have a fixed date yet. could be end of this month or early March. He has to get 1 chemo session every week for 6wks so i wont be around when that starts

If you look how steep the angles are in the rise and fall, it's clear that we need to consolidate So I will be holding short EURUSD in long term account, some hedge long in swing account, and using short term account to make a paycheck trading the ranges. I am swinging a small line in the scalps, looking to ride the surf. The tide looks like it's coming in now for some long scalp opportunity, until Tokyo open. Ride the waves . But don't think the bull is alive now. It's a bear market, you know!

Happy trades to you,
NB

Solid ISM Services outweighs the single ADP miss. Nfp should come higher than 22.000.

Resistance near 1.1850 should hold while targeting below 1.1800 at around 1.1780 first. Just my view!

Thank you. Hopefully everything works out with your dad

So far looks like USD interest rate cuts on hold. Trump might want them, but this news/moves afterwards suggest they may stay on hold.

Looks likely with the market that is also agreeing on a hold short term. I'm sure fed will cut but later on June. For now I see some divergence towards a downside on eu and more dovish ECB tomorrow as Lagarde will be asked about the 1.7% inflation number that came out today. If she manage a hawkish note - that's less likely - then eu will target 1.1920.

Take care see you tomorrow again!

update
The only change since the morning is that H1 has broken back into bearish and realigned with the H4 downtrend.

EURUSD
CHOCH DOWN (H4) — 1.19415
Change of the main structure from bullish → bearish

BOS DOWN (H4) — 1.1760
Confirmation of the H4 downtrend

H1 pivot / BOS-CHOCH UP — 1.18292
Intraday decision level

H4 demand zone
Bias

1. H4: bearish below 1.19415, confirmed below 1.1760
2. H1: bullish only above 1.18292, otherwise back to bearish

One sentence:
Direction is determined by 1.19415 (H4), while the intraday decision is made by 1.18292.
Tomorrow is ECB day = fundamentals override technicals.

Bear flag

thought we will get another bounce but nope. Mayb 1743 first

EURUSD H1
trendlines, SMC

BOS DOWN (H1) is around 1.17905, BUT only if we get an H1 CLOSE below this low.

1. yesterday’s H1 low ≈ 1.17905
2. price has traded below this low

Confirmation that:

1. the bearish direction is genuinely continuing
2. this is not just a fake break below 1.18292

Correct sequence:

1. 1.18292 breaks → H1 bullish structure invalidated
2. ~1.17905 breaks → BOS DOWN (continuation)

Current market “box”
1.1845 – 1.1760
H4 transition / decision zone
As long as:

1. there is NO H4 close below 1.1760, and at the same time
2. NO H4 close above 1.1845

then:

1. the market can move up and down within this range
2. without changing the main scenario.

Why this is happening

1. the old bullish trend has been invalidated
2. the new bearish trend is not yet confirmed

Smart money:

1. is distributing
2. is collecting liquidity on both sides

Retail traders get stopped out both up and down
therefore this is a chop / range / work area.

The decision will come only when:
H4 close < 1.1760 → the DOWN trend activates
H4 close > 1.1845 → the bearish scenario is invalidated

Between 1.1845 – 1.1760, direction is not decided — only ammunition is being collected.
Today is ECB day = fundamentals override technicals.

R We There yet? Dad?

EURUSD

Is the “decision zone” already R?
YES.
The blue decision zone around 1.1845 – 1.1829 is currently resistance.
Reason:

1. the H1 bullish structure was invalidated (below 1.18292)
2. returns into the zone are retests from below
3. the market is already reacting with rejection there

currently acting as R

ECB – hawkish scenario

If the ECB is clearly hawkish:
The first stop must be broken:
R: 1.1845 (decision zone)
Without an H1 close above 1.1845, every spike is just a liquidity grab.

If that succeeds:
The next real stop is the upper red trendline (~1.1890 – 1.1910)
That’s where I would expect the first strong rejection.
moving straight higher without a retest of 1.1845 is unlikely.

If ECB is neutral / dovish:

1. 1.1845 holds as R
2. continuation lower into the range

Summary:

1. 1.1845 = key decision / resistance zone
2. above it → chance for a higher squeeze
3. below it → the market respects the H4 bearish context

1.1760 must not be ignored — it is the lower anchor of this entire structure.