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Steviet's Live Trades!

  • #61
  • Dec 7, 2006 6:17pm Dec 7, 2006 6:17pm
Hi Steve<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o></o>

You have a very interesting system; I have a few questions if you don't mind<o></o>

<o></o>

1 Is there any other indicators that you use?<o></o>

2 Do you use candle sticks of the previous day to tell you the trend?<o></o>

3 Is there a particular time that you enter a trade in a day?<o></o>

4 I live in the <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" /><st1:country-region><st1lace>UK</st1lace></st1:country-region> as well.<o></o>

<o></o>

I am definitely going to try this system for I like to have a system that gives me free time during the day. <o></o>


Regards
JTH
  • #62
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:22pm Dec 7, 2006 10:22pm
amazing i had to see it for myself and do some number crunching but it was well worth it.

i backtested the cable with steviets method but instead of a random 50/50 guess in what way the market will go after a loosing trade i choose the opposite direction. so say for example we were long and then our stop was hit my new order would be short from the close of the candle that stoped out our trade. i then places the s/l for my new trade 10 pips above or below the previous days high.

ive back tested from december07, 2005 untill may07,2005 and my results were amazing.

it only came up with a 38.5% success rate;however, by cutting our loses short and letting our profits ride i was +3005pips in only 5 months

600pips a month

no joke.

we just need to find a filter to better perdict the the movement of the market after a stoped out trade rather then the opposite directing and we will be laughing

im going to start my own tread, unless you steviet dont mind me also posting my trade with yours?

im only goin to trade the cable.
  • #63
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:24pm Dec 7, 2006 10:24pm
i should add, with one pair the maximun i will trade is 3%.

my trades will start tomorrow after the nasty NFP
  • #64
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:33am Dec 8, 2006 1:33am
Quoting itme
I like this system. I had a system once somewhat like this that performed amazingly when I backtested it. I don't know whether I could remember it now, but it might have been quite similar.

Question: according to your backtesting, approximately what do you expect the ratio of wins to losses to be, the average size of a win and the average size of a loss, and the maximum loss? I assume you expect to make about 500 pips per month, which is excellent.

Congratulations on finding or developing an apparently winning system, that is simple too boot! I pray that you have the faith, patience, confidence and clarity to follow your system accurately, and find peace in the process.
Hi itme,

Thanks for your comments - by the way, I love your thread

According to my backtesting, we should be looking at a win ratio of 40-50% - a lot does depend on how accurate we are the bar after we get stopped out. To be honest I haven't even looked at average win or loss size - all i do know is it appears to be profitable long term. Cable seems to be the best pair to trade purely because of the large range and often you get clearer reversal signals than other pairs.

500 pips a month is my goal - some months will be less I'm sure so I need to make the most of months like we've just had.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #65
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:39am Dec 8, 2006 1:39am
Quoting jth
Hi Steve<o></o>

You have a very interesting system; I have a few questions if you don't mind<o></o>

<o></o>

1 Is there any other indicators that you use?<o></o>

2 Do you use candle sticks of the previous day to tell you the trend?<o></o>

3 Is there a particular time that you enter a trade in a day?<o></o>

4 I live in the <st1:country-region><st1lace>UK</st1lace></st1:country-region> as well.<o></o>

<o></o>

I am definitely going to try this system for I like to have a system that gives me free time during the day. <o></o>


Regards
JTH
Hi,

1. The only indicators I have on my chart that you can see are time series forecast 15 & triple ema 12. I don't trade on the cross or anything like that though.

2. I use candlesticks to look for classic reversal signs or where I think the market is going next.

3. I enter a trade at 10pm our time if my current trade was stopped out earlier that day - thats the only time I enter.

4. Welcome fellow UK'er

Kind regards
Steve
  • #66
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:43am Dec 8, 2006 1:43am
Hello peeps,

My UJ short from 115.79 has just been stopped out at 115.41 for a gain of 38 pips . Will enter a new trade just before close tonight.

December total now stands at 1190 pips for closed trades.

Current positions are 147 pips to the good but not counting my chickens as it's NFP day

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #67
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:48am Dec 8, 2006 1:48am
thanks allot.
At a later time i will post some of my reports.
At the moment i am trading 5 pairs of which 3 are in profit 2 in loss and one of those two is close to being cancelled.
we will see how it goes.
Regards
JTH
  • #68
  • Dec 8, 2006 1:48am Dec 8, 2006 1:48am
Quoting ronhickey
amazing i had to see it for myself and do some number crunching but it was well worth it.

i backtested the cable with steviets method but instead of a random 50/50 guess in what way the market will go after a loosing trade i choose the opposite direction. so say for example we were long and then our stop was hit my new order would be short from the close of the candle that stoped out our trade. i then places the s/l for my new trade 10 pips above or below the previous days high.

ive back tested from december07, 2005 untill may07,2005 and my results were amazing.

it only came up with a 38.5% success rate;however, by cutting our loses short and letting our profits ride i was +3005pips in only 5 months

600pips a month

no joke.

we just need to find a filter to better perdict the the movement of the market after a stoped out trade rather then the opposite directing and we will be laughing

im going to start my own tread, unless you steviet dont mind me also posting my trade with yours?

im only goin to trade the cable.
Hi Ron,

I'm not entirely surprised at your results - thats great

The thing about this like any other system, we will have poor weeks but you just have to keep with it and not break ANY rules EVER

I'd prefer if you started your own thread purely because I'd like to keep this one for my trades as a record.

Kind regards
Steve
  • #69
  • Dec 8, 2006 5:20am Dec 8, 2006 5:20am
Hi Steve,

Could you share your experience on which candlestick formations you use and/or have so far found to be the most reliable in determining whether you decide to reverse or stay with a trend after being stopped out of a trade?

I guess I'm asking which ones 'leap off the chart' for you and leave you in no doubt as to what to do.....

TIA
  • #70
  • Edited 6:20am Dec 8, 2006 5:42am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting steviet
Hi,

1. The only indicators I have on my chart that you can see are time series forecast 15 & triple ema 12. I don't trade on the cross or anything like that though.

2. I use candlesticks to look for classic reversal signs or where I think the market is going next.

3. I enter a trade at 10pm our time if my current trade was stopped out earlier that day - thats the only time I enter.

4. Welcome fellow UK'er

Kind regards
Steve
Hi Steve,
Intersting system and something I may want to checkout...I have a job too. My question are:
1. How do you decide to go long or short for the day?
2. When you open a position, say today, do you enter another position the next day on the same pair?
3. Can you explain the "time series forecast 15 & triple ema 12" and does MT4 have these indicators?
4. Why not moving your Stop on Previous days Low or High +/- 10?

Thanks in advance,
Rick
I'm a disciplined trader and that's the only way I trade.
  • #71
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:25am Dec 8, 2006 6:25am
Quoting Xerof
Hi Steve,

Could you share your experience on which candlestick formations you use and/or have so far found to be the most reliable in determining whether you decide to reverse or stay with a trend after being stopped out of a trade?

I guess I'm asking which ones 'leap off the chart' for you and leave you in no doubt as to what to do.....

TIA
Hi,

Once I'm in a trade I just stick with it by moving my stop loss each day regardless of the candlestick formations. However, there are certain things I may look out for as the trend looks like it may be exhausting.

For example, on GU a trend often will end with a doji. I take note of that and keep with the system because its the next bar that's important. At the top of a trend I will look for a doji or double top followed by a bearish candle. At the bottom I'm looking for a doji or double bottom followed by a bull candle.

There are others that you can quickly pick up simply by googling 'japanese candlesticks' but to be honest, you just get a feel for it the longer you use the system on different pairs.

The difficult days to trade are when the market is undecided - my system still requires me to make a call so I do based on what the chart is showing me. As with all systems this is by no means perfect but it is bringing in pips at the moment and I'm going to stick with it for a full year to analyse results.

Hope this helps.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #72
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:32am Dec 8, 2006 6:32am
Quoting drick008
Hi Steve,
Intersting system and something I may want to checkout...I have a job too. My question are:
1. How do you decide to go long or short for the day?
2. When you open a position, say today, do you enter another position the next day on the same pair?
3. Can you explain the "time series forecast 15 & triple ema 12" and does MT4 have these indicators?
4. Why not moving your Stop on Previous days Low or High +/- 10?

Thanks in advance,
Rick
Hi Rick,

1. Big question - I have to use a 'best guess' from the information I see before me on the chart. I am getting better but anything over 50% correct is good for me especially if the market is undecided.

2. No, the position stays open until it gets stopped out - it could be a day, a week or longer.

3. I don't use MT4 so am not sure but you can google both for a full explanation.

4 I'm not sure I understand your question. My stops are placed there because 10 pips below the previous days high/low often provides good support/resistance as the pair didnt trade beyond that level the day before. The reason it's not tighter than 10 is to cover the spread & try not to be stopped out by a random spike.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #73
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:43am Dec 8, 2006 6:43am
Yes tks Steve, you are right in saying practical hands-on doing/observing is a great teacher, and as you say each pair will have different nuances.

I shall blow the dust off my JJ Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, chapter 12 on candlesticks and get to work....

regards

Xerof
  • #74
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:47am Dec 8, 2006 6:47am
Quoting steviet
Hi Rick,

1. Big question - I have to use a 'best guess' from the information I see before me on the chart. I am getting better but anything over 50% correct is good for me especially if the market is undecided.

2. No, the position stays open until it gets stopped out - it could be a day, a week or longer.

3. I don't use MT4 so am not sure but you can google both for a full explanation.

4 I'm not sure I understand your question. My stops are placed there because 10 pips below the previous days high/low often provides good support/resistance as the pair didnt trade beyond that level the day before. The reason it's not tighter than 10 is to cover the spread & try not to be stopped out by a random spike.

Kind Regards
Steve
Hi Steve,

Number 4 question is answered in post #4. Sorry for the confussion. I like your trade management rule on moving your stop loss. I can see now that this is a good simple system and using a daily chart I can see big and small trends. I'm going to forward test this with a demo account and see if I can get similar results.

Thanks for sharing,
Rick
I'm a disciplined trader and that's the only way I trade.
  • #75
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:48am Dec 8, 2006 6:48am
Quoting Xerof
Yes tks Steve, you are right in saying practical hands-on doing/observing is a great teacher, and as you say each pair will have different nuances.

I shall blow the dust off my JJ Murphy, Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, chapter 12 on candlesticks and get to work....

regards

Xerof
You're more than welcome

Anyhow, back to work for me - happy nfp all

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #76
  • Dec 8, 2006 6:49am Dec 8, 2006 6:49am
Quoting drick008
Hi Steve,

Number 4 question is answered in post #4. Sorry for the confussion. I like your trade management rule on moving your stop loss. I can see now that this is a good simple system and using a daily chart I can see big and small trends. I'm going to forward test this with a demo account and see if I can get similar results.

Thanks for sharing,
Rick
You're welcome - best of luck

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #77
  • Dec 8, 2006 7:12am Dec 8, 2006 7:12am
Stevie, thank you for sharing your strategy.
If you have a signal indicating a possible reversal like a doji, double top or a hammer, etc., do you wait for the next bar for the confirmation of the new trend or you just enter at the high or the low of the new candle pattern?

thank you

frank
  • #78
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:30am Dec 8, 2006 11:30am
Quoting milan47
Stevie, thank you for sharing your strategy.
If you have a signal indicating a possible reversal like a doji, double top or a hammer, etc., do you wait for the next bar for the confirmation of the new trend or you just enter at the high or the low of the new candle pattern?

thank you

frank
Hi Frank,

Chances are if its in a trend I'm already in a position & the bar after the djoi will stop me out automatically & give confirmation at the same time

Kind regards
Steve
  • #79
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:37am Dec 8, 2006 11:37am


OK,

All positions stopped out today after a crazy afternoon in the markets.

USDCAD picked up a gain of 23 pips but lost out on GBPUSD short (minus 58), EURUSD short (minus 50 pips) & UCHF long (minus 61 pips).

Total pips in profit for December is now down a little to 1044 pips but still way ahead of my monthly target

Shame as now all my positions would be well in profit but thats the system I'm trading and it does work overall.

So, no open trades at the moment - will re-open all 5 pairs on Sunday 10pm when the market re-opens. For now can have a break and relax

Kind Regards all & hope today went well for all
Steve
  • #80
  • Dec 8, 2006 11:43am Dec 8, 2006 11:43am
Quoting steviet
Hi Frank,

Chances are if its in a trend I'm already in a position & the bar after the djoi will stop me out automatically & give confirmation at the same time

Kind regards
Steve
thank you.One more question if you don't mind . When the trend is over I assume that you will wait for a new candle pattern to enter. Will you wait on a confirmation of that candle or is there something else to trigger you entry?" I apologize if the question sounds stupid.

Thanks again.
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