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  • #221,121
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:02pm Jan 27, 2026 3:02pm
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} Another headline came from Trump on the dollar. Even though runs like this happened in the past they aren’t very common which makes them abnormal.
I agree. But we have to take into account the scenario.

It would be abnormal for my food to get warm on it's own but if I turn the oven on it's suddenly a likely thing to happen.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #221,122
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:03pm Jan 27, 2026 3:03pm
Quoting GainingBucks
{quote} Another headline came from Trump on the dollar. Even though runs like this happened in the past they aren’t very common which makes them abnormal.
BenWarburton was referring to a breakout from a range, not to a seven-day move — at least that’s how I understood him.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #221,123
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:07pm Jan 27, 2026 3:07pm
Quoting Lhelene
Trump > FOMC. The man is real antagonist.
lmao
  • #221,124
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:09pm Jan 27, 2026 3:09pm
I will keep watching, until the bear, dive to 199 or 1988,then I can be sure to do something.
  • #221,125
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:11pm Jan 27, 2026 3:11pm
The beginning of divergence will present opportunities for long-term traders in the future.
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  • #221,126
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:19pm Jan 27, 2026 3:19pm
Big move means high Historical Volatility and a real big peak. The largest spike on the 1m timeframe for the past 3 years (as far back as my chart can go).

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Price point to watch out for: 1.20486

If I were biased short I would place an entry next time it touches.
I am biased long so I will wait for a breakthrough and retest.
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #221,127
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:28pm Jan 27, 2026 3:28pm
Just some food for thought: the Eurozone economy is largely dependent on exports worldwide, which make up or used to make up the bulk of its prosperity. A significant portion of that has always been business with the U.S. With the new high tariffs and now an excessively strong euro on top of that, exports are bound to decline sharply. That won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. At the same time, a weak dollar isn’t exactly great for the U.S. either. So the real question is: how high are they willing to push EURUSD before it starts to seriously hurt the Eurozone?

One thing is clear: today’s Eurozone is not the same as it was 10–15 years ago. The only real locomotive has always been Germany and Germany is economically on the brink. I won’t go into details here; everyone can inform themselves about Germany’s situation. The largest net contributor is struggling, and if that pillar weakens, the Eurozone weakens with it. That’s why the current level of the euro is, frankly, a joke. And then there’s the clown overseas, whose statements can irrationally move markets at any time. Which raises another question: who’s the bigger clown — Trump or the markets themselves?

As long as this environment persists, economic data, central banks, interest rate decisions, chart analysis, and the like are largely meaningless. Right now, it’s nothing but a casino with manipulated tables and stacked cards. Crazy. This is no fun anymore, and that’s exactly why I’m staying out and won’t even watch the market until things hopefully “normalize” again at some point. Until then, take care.
  • #221,128
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:37pm Jan 27, 2026 3:37pm
Quoting Leser
Just some food for thought: the Eurozone economy is largely dependent on exports worldwide, which make up or used to make up the bulk of its prosperity. A significant portion of that has always been business with the U.S. With the new high tariffs and now an excessively strong euro on top of that, exports are bound to decline sharply. That won’t happen overnight, but it will happen. At the same time, a weak dollar isn’t exactly great for the U.S. either. So the real question is: how high are they willing to push EURUSD before it starts to seriously...
So what would the true and fair price be, in your opinion?

Have you read the forecasts of the major banks for the euro this year?

Take care.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #221,129
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:47pm Jan 27, 2026 3:47pm
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} So what would the true and fair price be, in your opinion? Have you read the forecasts of the major banks for the euro this year? Take care.
It doesn’t matter at all what I personally consider a fair price or not. What matters is that markets should discover prices on their own, based on facts, data, fundamentals and so on, not because someone is spewing verbal nonsense. There’s nothing more to add. That’s why I’m out and will stay out. Good luck.
  • #221,130
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:54pm Jan 27, 2026 3:54pm
Quoting Leser
{quote} It doesn’t matter at all what I personally consider a fair price or not. What matters is that markets should discover prices on their own, based on facts, data, fundamentals and so on, not because someone is spewing verbal nonsense. There’s nothing more to add. That’s why I’m out and will stay out. Good luck.
I see your point.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #221,131
  • Jan 27, 2026 3:59pm Jan 27, 2026 3:59pm
Quoting Risk2Reward
Just waiting for 1.20 to tap and then we go short short term
This man trump always causing chaos smh
  • #221,132
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:01pm Jan 27, 2026 4:01pm
Quoting Leser
{quote} It doesn’t matter at all what I personally consider a fair price or not. What matters is that markets should discover prices on their own, based on facts, data, fundamentals and so on, not because someone is spewing verbal nonsense. There’s nothing more to add. That’s why I’m out and will stay out. Good luck.
It's a good point but we do have to take into account that this someone is THE PRESIDENT
Do or do not, there is no try - Master Yoda
  • #221,133
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:07pm Jan 27, 2026 4:07pm
Phew, what a day. On the weekly, on a technical basis, it looks like price finally hit it's target, it's now a question of if it breaks it or not
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Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #221,134
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:38pm Jan 27, 2026 4:38pm
I think we haven’t realized yet how volatile the past week has been, we were all expecting a 1.14x tap soon, and nowadays we’re wondering if 1.21 is the next target. Even at the start of the year, we were practically all expecting 1.19, but price went bearish again. The market is truly moving like crazy, especially this week, and what I fear will happen, (i lowkey experienced it at the start of the bull trend, but thankfully I’ve come to that conclusion very soon) is that many people will lose confidence, start doubting their strategy, stress etc, when it’s just a bad period for all. Don’t know who this may help, but don’t let a bad period influence you
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #221,135
  • Jan 27, 2026 4:43pm Jan 27, 2026 4:43pm
The US dollar continued its decline. The DXY index plummeted due to several factors, including rumors that Japan would intervene in the currency market. There were rumors that the Bank of Japan would intervene to pull the yen back from its lows. Since the yen holds a significant weight in the DXY index basket, a stronger yen automatically pushed the DXY down.
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I trade at FXOpen
  • #221,136
  • Jan 27, 2026 7:19pm Jan 27, 2026 7:19pm
Quoting fxpipper
{quote} I think we'll see 1.20 soon. If not before this session ends then definitely during Asia. I think 1.20 will be the high of the week. Watching divergence building on lower time frames as well, which is an early indication of a reversal coming soon. I've been slowly but steadily accumulating shorts throughout this rise. New week opening gap between 1826-1861 is the downside target. {image}
Wow…my shorts got slaughtered by Trump opening his fat orange mouth. But…I wasn’t there to see it. Shorts are still active. I don’t use stop losses with the way I trade now, which is mostly a mean reversion style on bigger time frames, with very small positions that accumulate to a decent size. Only use SL if I’m doing ICT inspired surgical trades that are sizable relative to my account size. Obviously at some point I have to have a mental stop in mind. This up move was way beyond my mental stop, but by the time I noticed it, it was back within acceptable parameters.

I expected 1.20 to be hit today, and had a pending sell order near there, in addition to few other shorts already in play. Around 4:00 I got the email from my broker that the order was fulfilled. Cool, I thought. About ten minutes later I quickly looked at TradingView on my phone and saw price was at 1.204 and thought ok, it just overshot it by four pips. No big deal and then closed the app. Something didn’t feel right so I looked at it again. 1.204 I thought…hmm. Then I looked closer and thought whoa what the f-ing hell am I looking at here? Four pips above 1.20 should be 1.2004. This is 40 pips above 1.20!!! Then I looked at the chart and was horrified to see it had gone all the way to 1.2080. But it happened in a matter of minutes and quickly dropped down into the 40’s. I got caught up on the news and thought ok, this is a manipulation candle and quickly entered a new short at 2044. Now the price has dropped and I am breathing easier. I expect it to continue dropping over the next few hours. But damn what a ride. If I was there to witness the sudden rise to 2080 I would’ve freaked and probably closed everything.

I’m targeting 1915 or so, but that might not be realistic…and incredibly greedy. I think getting out close to BE or with a small profit might be a more prudent idea.
  • #221,137
  • Jan 27, 2026 7:24pm Jan 27, 2026 7:24pm
Quoting fxpipper
{quote} Wow…my shorts got slaughtered by Trump opening his fat orange mouth. But…I wasn’t there to see it. Shorts are still active. I don’t use stop losses with the way I trade now, which is mostly a mean reversion style on bigger time frames, with very small positions that accumulate to a decent size. Only use SL if I’m doing ICT inspired surgical trades that are sizable relative to my account size. Obviously at some point I have to have a mental stop in mind. This up move was way beyond my mental stop, but by the time I noticed it, it was back...
I feel you - and I would close BE.
1915 never.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #221,138
  • Jan 27, 2026 10:42pm Jan 27, 2026 10:42pm
Yo, I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want
IS to buy US dollar but with trump around
I dont know is whether I really, really want
is to buy US dollar.
  • #221,139
  • Jan 27, 2026 11:50pm Jan 27, 2026 11:50pm
Quoting keyc
Yo, I'll tell you what I want, what I really, really want IS to buy US dollar but with trump around I dont know is whether I really, really want is to buy US dollar.
We've have have come to a junction where he intentionally makes the market erratic with his tweets.
The Tarrif clown
You can be wrong half of the time and still make a fortune
  • #221,140
  • Jan 28, 2026 1:01am Jan 28, 2026 1:01am
In my opinion, today's FOMC meeting will determine whether to continue trading EUR/USD. My hope is that interest rates will rise. If that happens and the market doesn't fall, then I'll have to stop trading EUR/USD because it would be like gambling, which is not my goal. If interest rates do fall slightly, the price should stabilize because it's already significantly overvalued by about $0.04. If the rate doesn't move, then the market should fall. If EUR/USD still doesn't follow the fundamentals, I'll stop trading this asset for a while and switch to EUR/GPB to see if that's a rational move.
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