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EURUSD only

  • #221,021
  • Jan 24, 2026 5:25am Jan 24, 2026 5:25am
Quoting jerryd5
I really don't know what to say, LoL This week was something. I didn't expect it to skyrocket. I'll love if someone can explain what happened or the exact news that caused this. Have a lovely weekend.
I think it's because metals are trading almost 24/7 now and China injects liquidity massively, Asia is no longer the quiet one anymore, they set the trend now. And trade a lot. The reality of 1 super power above all is gone now... It's more regional, the world has changed. Of course US is the strongest among all, but trades are more situational now..

Well, I am only a beginner in trading, but I am trading nights (scalping while Asian sessions. I kind of understand candles, not much of macro, so..). I've noticed Asia is a beats now. So volatile... If you are a master in scalping - try Asia. wow...

The flows are non-stop now.

EUR/USD is in ascending consolidation on my opinion.
Again: I am only a beginner. But I will be happy if Ata lets me throw my little technical analysis here on weekend, like once a month.

Although I really have no language like you guys do: You all speak like a Bloomberg Desk analysts
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  • #221,022
  • Jan 24, 2026 10:48am Jan 24, 2026 10:48am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Quick study of my latest loser trade... (We always have to analyze our mistakes to improve!) I had the idea to short at point 0 trusting the channel... Some distraction came in and I had to handle things. During that time candles broke out and above of that channel. I came back and noticed that I now can get a better price than I planned and opened a sell order at 1.1727 (because I was also relying that my H4 Gartley pattern idea can add additional resistance at 1.1758. That gave me extra confidence.) But since candles broke out in a bullish way...
Thank you for sharing this so openly. Posts like these are much more valuable than "perfect winner" screenshots. I really appreciate how clearly you separated idea and execution. You showed the psychological side of being “invested” in a bias. Your description of the structural shift after the channel break, and how it slowly turned into a hope-based hold, reflects what every trader experiences. Very few articulate this honestly. Your point about candles staying above a major trendline shows true experience. That single line is worth more than many strategy threads. The part about using scalps to relieve pressure while the core position was still underwater is particularly relatable. It shows how easy it is to treat symptoms rather than the root problem. This post is a great reminder that the real advantage isn’t in patterns but in managing our biases when the market contradicts our narrative. Taking the -28 pips, changing perspective, and continuing to trade is a sign of professionalism. There is a lot to learn here. Thank you for documenting the entire thought process. These posts actually help traders improve.
“Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
  • #221,023
  • Jan 24, 2026 11:47am Jan 24, 2026 11:47am
More tariff news
EURUSD currently up even more at 1.18427
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Consistency is key
  • #221,024
  • Jan 24, 2026 11:59am Jan 24, 2026 11:59am
Quoting arjunansh
{quote} Thank you for sharing this so openly. Posts like these are much more valuable than "perfect winner" screenshots. I really appreciate how clearly you separated idea and execution. You showed the psychological side of being “invested” in a bias. Your description of the structural shift after the channel break, and how it slowly turned into a hope-based hold, reflects what every trader experiences. Very few articulate this honestly. Your point about candles staying above a major trendline shows true experience. That single line is worth more...
I must say brother, you have an extraordinary eye that is able to catch every little detail hidden in that post. I am truly impressed and highly surprised how one could interpret each and every one of the given statements in such a precise manner, as if you were directly accessing my brains. I couldn't explain it this well. One big applause for that Arjun. Bravo!

Now, based on your feedback I will make sure to share posts like this more often, because you just convinced me that this way of documentation helps.

Thank you
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #221,025
  • Edited 1:05pm Jan 24, 2026 12:32pm | Edited 1:05pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I must say brother, you have an extraordinary eye that is able to catch every little detail hidden in that post. I am truly impressed and highly surprised how one could interpret each and every one of the given statements in such a precise manner, as if you were directly accessing my brains. I couldn't explain it this well. One big applause for that Arjun. Bravo! Now, based on your feedback I will make sure to share posts like this more often, because you just convinced me that this way of documentation helps. Thank you
Thanks to you both for sharing. The deepest lessons are in the losses and mistakes. The longer I'm at this, the more I realize that humans are programmed to be optimistic to endure the rigors of life. Great for survival, but it leads us astray when trading. Overcoming the bias with facts is key. I wish more folks would share these lessons in terms of growth and experience (weekends only, of course, to not violate thread rules). I think it not only makes us better traders, but better human beings.
Welcome to the Chess game....this is not the Olympics
  • #221,027
  • Jan 24, 2026 4:35pm Jan 24, 2026 4:35pm
Quoting Polleczko
Wow, thats was hell of the move. Too bad I jumped off with 30pips only.
Much better this time
Direction is pretty clear, just watching for proper pullback.
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youtube.com/@pantherfxt
  • #221,028
  • Jan 25, 2026 2:25am Jan 25, 2026 2:25am
Quoting bigforex04
From my ML analysis we might see a slight further up tick on the eur/usd and gbp/usd 35-70 pips ( max ) and then USD should strengthen based on the data we see here. Again I would trade this selling Eur/usd and seliing Gbp/usd in small chunks of 20-30 pips distances and let it ride, and you'll also collect daily interest on your Eur-usd sell I also expect a decent sized Gap down on the Eur.usd and Gbp.USD Sunday night open Lets see what happens.. Good luck people!
This is likely because according to my calculations the average price of EURUSD from 1995 until now is 1.18465 which represents a very important zone because below this the dollar remains strong and above it the dollar becomes weak.
  • #221,029
  • Jan 25, 2026 8:42am Jan 25, 2026 8:42am
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
{quote} I must say brother, you have an extraordinary eye that is able to catch every little detail hidden in that post. I am truly impressed and highly surprised how one could interpret each and every one of the given statements in such a precise manner, as if you were directly accessing my brains. I couldn't explain it this well. One big applause for that Arjun. Bravo! Now, based on your feedback I will make sure to share posts like this more often, because you just convinced me that this way of documentation helps. Thank you
That really means a lot, thank you. I didn't see anything extraordinary in myself here, I just recognized the same inner dialogue I've had in my own trades. That "maybe it will turn" phase is something we all know too well.
What made your post powerful is that you didn't just show a chart, you showed the thinking behind it. Most of us only post outcomes. Very few are honest enough to post the process, especially when it becomes uncomfortable.
If you keep sharing like this, a lot of people will recognize themselves in those moments and learn faster from them than from any textbook example. That kind of transparency is rare and extremely valuable in trading communities.
I'm glad my feedback encouraged you, because your way of documenting trades is exactly the kind that actually helps traders grow.
“Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
  • #221,030
  • Jan 25, 2026 10:52am Jan 25, 2026 10:52am
Quoting bartholemew
Most of today's EURUSD run seems to be from USD selling based on rumors of BOJ intervention. These episodes tend to blow over quickly because for one, BOJ does not have the firepower to overpower the markets, and two, they are more concerned with fx volatility than absolute levels. If they can persuade UJ to trade sideways, they will dial back intervention threats.
However, it may be "different this time." There are some stories here and there claiming that there may be coordinated intervention, which is a different situation altogether than just the BOJ all by its lonesome bringing a strongly-worded letter to a gunfight.

And as for geopolitical risk-on/risk-off, I've seen some commentary this weekend that a US strike on Iran may have been waved off by the Saudis, Turks, Qataris and others due to complicated political realities on the ground throughout the Middle East.

All of which makes things much riskier for both longs and shorts.
  • #221,031
  • Jan 25, 2026 12:41pm Jan 25, 2026 12:41pm
if no other major geopolitcal news occour, I am expecting monday to turn bearish, up until at least the 1.1762-1.1769 zone gets filled, since there is an imbalance there, and above (1.179 - 1.181) in the 1hr chart.
From there on, it will depend on the market conditions. Time will tell, so I guess see you in a couple of hours...

1.1764 is also a respected area, which has now turned to support.
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2000 elo sometimes...
  • #221,032
  • Jan 25, 2026 1:51pm Jan 25, 2026 1:51pm
why the pump on eur
  • #221,033
  • Edited 2:38pm Jan 25, 2026 2:14pm | Edited 2:38pm
1,1878 gap?
  • #221,034
  • Jan 25, 2026 3:06pm Jan 25, 2026 3:06pm
Quoting graciousfx
why the pump on eur
Sell America Trade due to tariff threats
Consistency is key
  • #221,035
  • Jan 25, 2026 3:11pm Jan 25, 2026 3:11pm
Quick H4 Outlook

  1. No matter at what price market opens, I have a yellow area marked as my most crucial range for Monday!
  2. Many know that I don't trade Asian session, but those who do must first check if bulls are willing to continue higher than 1.1845..That's the first barrier sitting nearby based on the most recent slope angle. Inside the first 2 hours right after London opening bulls might try to reach ~1.1870 area but upper-slope-resistance will always be present whenever price is rising.
  3. Once or if bulls enter the yellow triangle area at some point, it will get interesting, because assuming that more and more blind-sellers will jump shorting those highs without confirmation, banks could use this as rocket fuel to push price even higher. Therefore, careful with counter-selling! Too risky while bull channel is intact!
  4. Based on the active bullish channel, it seems like our main support will be around the 1.1780-ish levels but this level will keep shifting higher as time passes. So we must check every 4 hours to see if the channel is intact or not. As long as it is, trend on this timeframe is bullish!

Anyway, I am wishing you all a happy new trading week in advance folks...

See you after London opening

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #221,036
  • Jan 25, 2026 3:13pm Jan 25, 2026 3:13pm
Gapped up and opened at 1.18716 just now
Consistency is key
  • #221,038
  • Jan 25, 2026 3:29pm Jan 25, 2026 3:29pm
Too much UJ talk... Next time, please stick to EURUSD... Thanks in advance
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #221,039
  • Jan 25, 2026 3:36pm Jan 25, 2026 3:36pm
Quoting bartholemew
{quote} One other thing: geopolitical risk-off events and market volatility tend to unwind the UJ carry trade, but that's because it's a carry trade, not because USDs suddenly become less desirable to market participants. If for example US goes kinetic in Iran and things go sideways and dicey from there with uncontrolled escalation, you could see simultaneous decline in UJ and a decline in EU, something that would negate the need for fx intervention in UJ, at least for a time, until whatever conflict unfolds gets resolved.
I think geopolitcal issues have become the norm for us, and we've learnt to adapt to it (kinda). Additionally, it's got too many variables behind it, you would have to essentially create an outcome for every scenario; meaning it's nearly impossible to "accurately" depict what will happen...
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #221,040
  • Jan 25, 2026 4:08pm Jan 25, 2026 4:08pm
Quoting TomIsTheGoat
{quote} I think geopolitcal issues have become the norm for us, and we've learnt to adapt to it (kinda). Additionally, it's got too many variables behind it, you would have to essentially create an outcome for every scenario; meaning it's nearly impossible to "accurately" depict what will happen...
Sure, well, I was describing the bank shot and push-pull relationship for USD between two looming scenarios, but ...
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