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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #1,061
  • Dec 31, 2025 8:17am Dec 31, 2025 8:17am
Quoting Danger-Mouse
{quote} Yeah we're all Euro trash aren't we? Here's a nice song for you to enjoy and chill out with. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ee_uujKuJMI
Truth is, yes you are.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #1,062
  • Dec 31, 2025 4:45pm Dec 31, 2025 4:45pm
Quoting turnip15
{quote} The point is this , I think: The average ( working man/woman -carpenter, bricklayer or nurse etc) are fed up and disillusioned with the status quo and litany of broken promises from whomever was currently in power. Like him or loathe him as a personality, these people saw in Trump an alternative to the drudgery, corruption and impoverishment of the current crop of politicians or political groups. Instead of exercising a degree of empathy ( concerns about jobs, immigration and living costs etc) or a study of the Trump "phenomenon" they simply...
Yep. that's where we're at.

UK at the moment, and other countries under woke Marxist clap trap have not bottomed out and still have a fair way to go.

It's clear that across the 5 eyes the ideology has decided to bring to an end the successful union of white established countries where the population largely is uncontrollable through religion and Government sponsored spin and the decision was made to dilute and destabilise them to once again gain full control over the population.
This will take us back to a stoneage shithole as demonstrated in large parts of the UK where the invaders have decided to settle and make it look like where they came from.

If this post pisses someone off i couldn't careless, they either live in a shithole or soon will do.
  • #1,063
  • Jan 21, 2026 11:18am Jan 21, 2026 11:18am
Sometimes you just let them vent and waste their most precious asset: Time.

The good thing is Moody, spzd and GEfx and all the basement keyboard warrior MAGAfuckers document their stupidity for future social science studies. Glad to provoke them to confess and document.
  • #1,064
  • Edited 4:20am Jan 22, 2026 4:10am | Edited 4:20am
What studies for future? History check, we've already been there, we know what fascism is and how it works.
MAGA is fascism, essentially.

BTW, ICE agents have power now to enter homes without a judge’s warrant
Pathetic radical morons, America becomes a fascist hell day by day
Member
  • #1,065
  • Jan 22, 2026 10:14am Jan 22, 2026 10:14am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Division is a tool. Did you ever think that there will be a day when the tool(s) has served it's purpose? What do you think will happen after that day? You confused value with strategy.
I see Ferna has been on a deleting frenzy. I wonder why anyone would need to go back and delete all their contentious posts? Hmmmm.. Anyone think of a REASON? Screenshots are screenshots baby!
  • #1,066
  • Jan 27, 2026 10:59am Jan 27, 2026 10:59am
Quoting TudorIoan
What studies for future? History check, we've already been there, we know what fascism is and how it works. MAGA is fascism, essentially. BTW, ICE agents have power now to enter homes without a judge’s warrant Pathetic radical morons, America becomes a fascist hell day by day
Personalized social media feed algos deliverd 24/7 via mobile phones work as a kind of digital brain interface for mass public programming. What has changed in regards to 90 years ago and the cold war is propaganda is delivered much more effective through an individually adjusted, tailored news feed and the dramatic drop in costs to scale and optimize it. AI further accelerates this dramatically. Easy to put about 30% of the population into the place where you want them to be on almost every topic. Today I literally can see this everywehre, even on people very close and probably in some aspects I am personally a victim of it es well, if I don't question and rationalize my believes constantly, which is very burdensome and time consuming.

You can mass spread lies for almost nothing but you have to pay for verified, truthful and useful information and facts. The war is asymmetric and as long as regulation doesn't hinder the mass spreading of lies and make it expensive to do so, the liars have a serious advantage in this game, as we withness daily.

Forexfactory is a good place that documents how these lies are successfully planted into brains and how hard it becomes after a while to bring those affected back into reality. Similar to cult victims. Good thing is that more and more can't ignore the consequences and regulation starts in some places. But in America, billonaires selling this service and personally benefitting from it are successfully undermining significant regulation efforts so far. What the whole world outside America sees in disbelieve is the direct result of it, while a lot of American really need reality to it them directly in the face before they finally get it.
  • #1,067
  • Jan 27, 2026 12:31pm Jan 27, 2026 12:31pm
Trump. You can't have guns... Huh?
What about the 2nd amendment?

Inserted Video
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #1,068
  • Jan 29, 2026 9:48am Jan 29, 2026 9:48am
If I would own Butcoin I would start to get nervous.... just saying.

Strategy (ehem. MicroStrategy)MSTR 712.647 BTC~76.037 USD

MARA HoldingsMARA 46.376 BTC~45.000 - 55.000 USD

Metaplanet3350 (JP) 35.102 BTC~85.000 - 95.000 USD

Price might soon test the business model of these "HODLer treasury" nothingburgers..... one day, they run out of suckers and a rinse is required to repeat from a much lower level with new suckers....
  • #1,069
  • Jan 30, 2026 1:19am Jan 30, 2026 1:19am
81000 - so Metaplanet share holders and creditors lose money with BTC... they learn being late to a negative sum game is stupid^2.

Only 5000 to go till Strategy and the strategy bubble pumping will run into more and more problems.... a purely speculative strategy based on a ponzi is not sustainable.

A drop to 40000 combinened with rising energy costs should cause MARA to rethink whether their money couldn't be better allocated on things that are actually productive. They probably already do and thank the retail traders to buy their coins at ridiculusly high prices.

A drop below 20000 and then some whales will try to pull off a new pump...

Looks like the precious metal hodlers have won this round and the crypto hodlers will hold the bag.
However, I can't predict the future so I don't make bets predicting future.
  • #1,070
  • Feb 1, 2026 10:48am Feb 1, 2026 10:48am
Bitcoin and other cryptocoins have reached over $3 trillion in aggregate value with several hundred millions of people owning one or more crypto coins. For what exactly?

All this happens without crypto being a productive asset, only negative cash flows, very little to inexistent, truely usable services and little to no improvement if you use it as an alternative to fiat money. It is pure speculation that drives all of it.

Similar to Ponzi schemes, every single early investor who cashed out or will cash out money from crypto was able to do so because of a late investor buying in at a higher price and holding the bag in the future.

Cryptos themselves cannot or don't have to collaps to zero in a run like a real ponzi. However, the system is built that you surely can lose everything when crypto exchanges, crypto lenders or borrowers go out of business, are getting hacked or just steal your coins because they can. Unlike zero sum Ponzi games, Crypto games are highly negative sum games ^2 for losers, because the infrastructure needed is very expensive to build, to run (IT equipement, electricity, security, IT support), to mine new coins, facilitate transactions, store and secure blockchains.

Bitcoin is therefore more kind of (decentralized) pump and dump scheme, resulting as a negative sum game over all participants but with a high potential to make profits for those who actually control price. They sell it as decentralized product, but looking at the gini factor behind crypto, it is rather a highly centralized solution and controlled by few. Still far to less regulated in most parts of the world, so ideal for all kind of financial manipulations you can think of.

Let say you built and still control a crypto currency that has grown to a significant market cap. A part of the gains you achieved in the run up can be set aside to build a reserve to stabilize a certain floor, at which you can theoretically buy all coins available back at a certain price. The floor can be low, but it is not zero. This point will never be reached, because there will always be some hodlers out there not selling their coins no matter what. The closer you come to a certain level you are able to certainly defend for a time, supply dries and demand increases. As long as you find enough new suckers, it creates the impression the game can be turned around again and continued forever, which is obviously not possible. It creates the impression, that since the max amount of coins is limited, the value of the crypto currency will grow with the amount of people owning, using and hording it.If you are the one who is able to move the price by dominating supply / demand, it becomes a money printer and a negative sum game ^2 for all suckers participating in your game. Many lose even in the run up (leverage), they lose as a group in a sideway markets and they lose their shirt in a down market.

Traditional finance and big money started to dominate every relevant crypto coin years ago. They use it as a profit pump machine till regulators contain the fallout or they run out of suckers because of the damage they caused. This is how cryptos will likely vanish into irrelevancy one day. However, as long as the profit pump still generates profit for those in control, rinse and repeat will continue till it doesn't anymore. Currently some of them seem to switch and try to corner the precious metal marekt with a similar approach.

One thing is pretty sure. If you participate in this game as a retail trader, only an insane amount of luck will let you overcome the edge of those who control these individual coins. It is in their interest to lure you in, to hook you with some profits, to create an addiction and to finally slaughter you financially. That's how they play and they are getting better every year.

Do you?

Why don't you invest in your family, in your friends, in your job, in your hobbies, in things that are productive, make you happier or healthier, more productive that solve problems or improve a service? Wouldn't that make so much more sense? If yes, stop wasting your time with negative sum games.
  • #1,071
  • Edited 4:51am Feb 2, 2026 2:28am | Edited 4:51am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Personalized social media feed algos deliverd 24/7 via mobile phones work as a kind of digital brain interface for mass public programming. What has changed in regards to 90 years ago and the cold war is propaganda is delivered much more effective through an individually adjusted, tailored news feed and the dramatic drop in costs to scale and optimize it. AI further accelerates this dramatically. Easy to put about 30% of the population into the place where you want them to be on almost every topic. Today I literally can see this everywehre,...
Come on, Hud! You almost nail the definition of life there. Hierarchy is everywhere. It's normal. There will always be fools.
Yeah, people should live and work together in harmony... because we are blessed with reason and empathy. But no, we choose to fiercely compete for everything. So those 30% dummies are needed and they are needed even by you. Sometimes it's painful to admit that dummies are necessary for our own standard of living.

So I started on FF promoting FX hard ...because I was aware that I need someone to pay me. Spread them lies and masses will cheer you on. It's easy to be a FX guru in a sea of stupidity, greed and madness. We need them. How can I get my money on the counter table if all of them are smart?! We don't sell meat, we speculate volatility.
Sure, in time I realised it's a 50-50 game no matter how smart you are. Even less than 50-50 game, as you say.
So now I'm a piker, a small bet gambler playing 3K only for fun, as you can easily guess.

But we always need those 30% morons for ...life!
I mean, fuck Trump, but we all know we will never be equals. The strong will take advantage. yes, sure, just because it will always be like that it doesn't make it right... but that's the way it is.
Are you aware that we can't keep the same living standard without having a fool born at every two minutes? Whatever you think about that, nobody will ever be able to stop it. People working hard for my fancy sport shoe for $2 wage ?!?
Can you say about football that is a 'manipulation' to keep the crowd in check and avoid them from being violent in the real life?! Bread and Circus?!
Forex? Casino?
It's just ...life.
And the cynical billionaires exist because fools exist. Why blame only one party?

But time to time the fools will have their revenge. War propaganda, rasist, isolationist, traditionalist, nationalist propaganda, mercantilism, religion, crazy cults, ...all of that catches immediately on them. So periodically, fools will tear apart the current order and turning it into chaos ...and pretty much the same system will automatically reboot.
Hopefully, we will come out better each time. From the Athenian democracy to contemporary democracy...yeah, maybe too many flaws, but always better.

So you see 'that' all around you, even at you and your folks? Hehe, chill out, this is your curse forever ...because you seem smart beyond the average, bear it!

And never cry for them falling for "Personalized social media feed algos deliverd 24/7 via mobile phones work as a kind of digital brain interface for mass public programming" ..it would be like crying for the MAGA members as victims ...you are not Jesus, are you?

'Burdensome and time consuming'? Bear it! Ultimatelly, this is a form of fight for your ...life.

Never cry for the fallen. Never warn them, ...it makes them angry. Teach them nothing. Never mock them either.
Sometimes, to live is to let die.

But still, ...thanks to a few moral people we don't need to do that every day ..the world can be better
Member
  • #1,072
  • Feb 2, 2026 6:02am Feb 2, 2026 6:02am
Quoting HudithePfupf
I can't predict the future so I don't make bets predicting future.
.
We know, we know
9 years dude. What you doing for the 10 year anniversary of this thread? Writing to the SEC?
  • #1,073
  • Feb 4, 2026 11:47am Feb 4, 2026 11:47am
Quoting triphop
{quote}. We know, we know 9 years dude. What you doing for the 10 year anniversary of this thread? Writing to the SEC?
The SEC won't help. But increasing the costs to lure in new victims does help...... and so it's worth the effort. Retail forex traders loose hundreds of millions dollars, if not billions, combined each year..... based on the lie that they can become profitable, while the system is built the way they certainly don't.

So far this thread aged very well and there is no reason to think the world will work differently over the next 10 years.

The day this thread is no longer correct, Retail Forex Brokers went all broke and no company is offering retail forex trading anymore to anybody, because they lose money doing so.

However.... let's remind that crypto trading is a negative sum game for losers^2

Looks like Strategy will soon have to rebrand to NANO Strategy.

Tick Tock.....
  • #1,074
  • Feb 4, 2026 11:57am Feb 4, 2026 11:57am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Come on, Hud!
Well, civilisation still exist because luckely there are many good souls out there who want to do the right thing.... yes, you can prey on the stupid and the weak, but his is not a goal to aim for and won't make you happy in the long run.

Now I would like to go back to see BTC real time breaking through 72000 and teaching a lesson.
  • #1,075
  • Edited 11:16pm Feb 4, 2026 11:00pm | Edited 11:16pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} The SEC won't help. But increasing the costs to lure in new victims does help...... and so it's worth the effort. Retail forex traders loose hundreds of millions dollars, if not billions, combined each year..... based on the lie that they can become profitable, while the system is built the way they certainly don't. So far this thread aged very well and there is no reason to think the world will work differently over the next 10 years. The day this thread is no longer correct, Retail Forex Brokers went all broke and no company is offering...
but you need to see also the reality: most trading people are gamblers , so possible to compare it to players in a casino. They gamble and so have negative expectation value. and gambling vs trading is an extrem important part to unterstand (there are much more points than have an positive expectation value to be a trader, thats only the basic to top the rest on this ).

so because most trading people are gambler and not really trader you are correct with a lot you say (and when you look from the point you calculate the average trading person result and calculate the whole market result ... there is one part missing a lot speak about, the individual trader result - hard to understand maybe the difference, but this difference change a lot because here its different calculation models ) , but you need to see also that casino is a game by luck (dont let count card counting as example in casino, that has different marketing edge for casino when they allow it until abused to much and would be different topic) because of negative expectation value (and nobody is closing it because its for entertainment, you pay to get entertained!), its not so with trading if you play it not like gambling (it is really hard work and for many a fulltime job by math!) - the gambling part inside the trading people is also most of time just entertainment (so same area like trading) .... and often trading in many places only work because of this entertainment gambling people exist ... its a full circle to understand.
if you have question to this part ( i know its harder to understand from some words) you can ask more in detail about the why (and always the why to understand is the most important part).

where you are very correct is when people sell dreams and wrong information's, 99,99% in trading industry is not what it looks like in first place (often a lot of selling dreams, fake Trader , fake Coaching, Scammers, Liars, ...). and because of this LLM will get more and more, because faking and writing big amount of text is much more easy now.
  • #1,076
  • Feb 5, 2026 2:43am Feb 5, 2026 2:43am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} but you need to see also the reality: most trading people are gamblers , so possible to compare it to players in a casino. They gamble and so have negative expectation value. and gambling vs trading is an extrem important part to unterstand (there are much more points than have an positive expectation value to be a trader, thats only the basic to top the rest on this ). so because most trading people are gambler and not really trader you are correct with a lot you say (and when you look from the point you calculate the average trading person...
Hey, sure there is a negative expectation! But what are the procetages ? There is always a 2% chance for you to not reach the other side of the street in a very busy crossing. But if they charge you $2 to put your $100 bet on the red, your game is no longer a 50-50 game. It's a House Always Wins Game. Mathematically, is just a matter of time. So if you think you can beat the odds and the House you are a fool.
But if you go there to play for fun is like going for a skydive with the gang and after that pour some nasty 12 year old liquids in your stomach. Dope, huh!
Hm, why did the chicken crossed the street? For more adrenaline, that's for sure.

"This and that shit is a negative sum for losers", ad litteram it's a little bit of a redundancy. I mean any game is a negative sum for losers ...because they are not just players, they are already qualified as losers in the first place. Losers always hold the bag, the negative part of any game. It's like saying this shit is a positive sum for winners.
Maybe a negative sum for the stupid who think they can be profitable from speculating some shit forever, sounds better.

On crypto, it doesn't matter what you trade as long as they are on the market. Tulip bulbs, dog poop, penny stocks, Melania coins... the market is always right about <value>. Ultimatelly, there's no real intrinsec value in anything, financial assets, currencies, derivatives, solid metals ...not even in stocks, I'd say. All people's conventions. The real thing must be human labour, ...I guess. But who cares in an ocean of derivatives?! Fuck labour, we are not communists!
So we got this big arena where we bet on everything.
So I hate crypto, ...but why not trading crypto ?
Member
  • #1,077
  • Feb 5, 2026 2:46am Feb 5, 2026 2:46am
Quoting Trader191
{quote} but you need to see also the reality: most trading people are gamblers
Exactly this. Retail FX is no different to retail stocks, commodities, rates etc, it's all trading but the sales push was harder, and entire youtube industries sprung up telling people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear, aided and abetted by brokers.
As an asset class, institutionally it's seen as 'harder' than others, mainly because there's little long-term drift compared to S&P for example but that alone isn't reason to ban it.
If you want to 'protect' the masses, it's knowledge, not bans that are way more effective. The most recent intervention - capping leverage - left retail @ 30:1 but those with £500k+ liquid assets with 500:1. Hardly 'levelling the playing field' is it?
Still, since I started, the industry has matured. Spreads are tighter, execution is better, and save the Bahama's bucket shops, it's become way more tradeable than it used to be, and of course, ironically even with all these advantages , way less popular because crypto has entered the frame.
Knowledge > bans, every time
  • #1,078
  • Feb 5, 2026 3:00am Feb 5, 2026 3:00am
Quoting triphop
{quote} Exactly this. Retail FX is no different to retail stocks, commodities, rates etc, it's all trading but the sales push was harder, and entire youtube industries sprung up telling people what they want to hear, not what they need to hear, aided and abetted by brokers. As an asset class, institutionally it's seen as 'harder' than others, mainly because there's little long-term drift compared to S&P for example but that alone isn't reason to ban it. If you want to 'protect' the masses, it's knowledge, not bans that are way more effective. The...
The odds are stacked against you being a successful stock picker. You know who Warren Buffett or Peter Lynch is because they're such outliers.
The rest of us, we're playing the loser's game. We get emotional. We overtrade. We don't pay attention to costs. We ignore taxes. We make all of these mistakes that if only we avoided them, we would do so much better.
You are going up against every other investor and trader who similarly thinks that they can outsmart the markets.
History tells us we are simply terrible at playing that game.

Barry Ritholtz
Member
  • #1,079
  • Feb 5, 2026 4:15am Feb 5, 2026 4:15am
Overtrading is the number one reason people have a hard time in this business. The second reason, generally, is being a jackass.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,080
  • Feb 5, 2026 4:19am Feb 5, 2026 4:19am
Quoting HudithePfupf
If I would own Butcoin I would start to get nervous.... just saying. Strategy (ehem. MicroStrategy)MSTR 712.647 BTC~76.037 USD MARA HoldingsMARA 46.376 BTC~45.000 - 55.000 USD Metaplanet3350 (JP) 35.102 BTC~85.000 - 95.000 USD Price might soon test the business model of these "HODLer treasury" nothingburgers..... one day, they run out of suckers and a rinse is required to repeat from a much lower level with new suckers....
I'll be very curious to see how they fair on the break. The losses are where you earn your stripes..... as far as I can tell.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
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