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  • #20,101
  • Jan 15, 2026 5:17pm Jan 15, 2026 5:17pm
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,102
  • Jan 15, 2026 9:28pm Jan 15, 2026 9:28pm
Quoting The Fool
VIX dropping pretty low so I could see fishing spikes on a monthly basis {image}
I copied this trade and got out yesterday with profit
  • #20,103
  • Jan 15, 2026 11:42pm Jan 15, 2026 11:42pm
Quoting ngson99
{quote} I copied this trade and got out yesterday with profit
hey I closed it on a dip day not long ago and made 2x. I will wait for another VIX run below 15 and do it again. Cheers.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,104
  • Edited Jan 16, 2026 12:11am Jan 15, 2026 11:57pm | Edited Jan 16, 2026 12:11am
I think the VIX spike trap winners are out there as long as DJT is in office. Doesn't even have to be much of a spike , IF

a) you are patient and enter the spread after VIX has dropped below 15, and
2) give yourself enough time, I'd say at least 30dte.

I will probably stick with a 20/30 bull call vertical, but of course you could start lower and not as tall for something that might have a little better PoP...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,105
  • Jan 16, 2026 3:15pm Jan 16, 2026 3:15pm
Another week, another SCOTUS tariff ruling fantasy
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,106
  • Jan 18, 2026 8:22pm Jan 18, 2026 8:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Another week, another SCOTUS tariff ruling fantasy
helped along by yet another Trump tariff scare.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,107
  • Edited 2:15pm Jan 20, 2026 1:44pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}helped along by yet another Trump tariff scare.
with SPX sitting on the 6800 put calendar mid, I might take a few off near the close, will hold more for better yield later in the week.

...took a couple off at $8.00. a $5.50 gain. Will take more tomorrow if SPX near the mid, as I have no hedge on this. Was waiting til today from last week to fix that. Pays to have shorts in place for weekend risk these days.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,108
  • Jan 20, 2026 6:01pm Jan 20, 2026 6:01pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Pays to have shorts in place for weekend risk these days.
or long VIX. But, you can always count on VIX to revert - play flys for that, will put this on for a xperiment...

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,109
  • Jan 21, 2026 1:50pm Jan 21, 2026 1:50pm
entered this combo an hour or so ago, before the latest news spike...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,110
  • Jan 22, 2026 10:36am Jan 22, 2026 10:36am
Quoting The Fool
entered this combo an hour or so ago, before the latest news spike...
with SPX sitting dead on the 6920 mid of the fly, I cashed out the whole combo for nearly 3x net

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,111
  • Jan 23, 2026 5:43pm Jan 23, 2026 5:43pm
everything but the kitchen sick for Snowmageddon (to enter Monday ... maybe)

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,112
  • Jan 23, 2026 8:37pm Jan 23, 2026 8:37pm
there are no more SCOTUS announcement day in Jan, none scheduled until the last week of Feb...

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  • #20,113
  • Jan 23, 2026 10:21pm Jan 23, 2026 10:21pm
wide flys on the put side looking quite cheap. The iv increase lowers the peak return but it also extends the b/e points. So, if cheaper, increase size. And flys can be a good bridge towards cheaper time spreads or bear put verts. I'm not convinced, but looking for a negative reaction to the Wed FOMC, with no hike and a hawkish outlook on the year. I will play some RUT for that, also.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,114
  • Jan 25, 2026 12:49am Jan 25, 2026 12:49am
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  • #20,115
  • Jan 25, 2026 11:19am Jan 25, 2026 11:19am
Quoting The Fool
wide flys on the put side looking quite cheap. The iv increase lowers the peak return but it also extends the b/e points. So, if cheaper, increase size. And flys can be a good bridge towards cheaper time spreads or bear put verts. I'm not convinced, but looking for a negative reaction to the Wed FOMC, with no hike and a hawkish outlook on the year. I will play some RUT for that, also. {image}
I think the Spx is going to cross 7020 this week by FOMC Wednesday, or by Jan 30 2026
lets see what happens
I have some ES calls in play
  • #20,116
  • Jan 25, 2026 11:36am Jan 25, 2026 11:36am
Quoting Vowwow
{quote} I think the Spx is going to cross 7020 this week by FOMC Wednesday, or by Jan 30 2026 lets see what happens I have some ES calls in play
yep big fat 7000 will be hard to pass up. Lots of bigcap earnings this week and if they all (or mostly) beat big, we can see yet another Mag7 buying frenzy lift the indices. I will have some call flys for a rally, but I will put those on @ shorter dte's.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,117
  • Jan 26, 2026 2:11pm Jan 26, 2026 2:11pm
bear case SPX put spreads for the week
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,118
  • Jan 26, 2026 9:02pm Jan 26, 2026 9:02pm
any short idea an uphill slog against the crashing USD....at least put them on at low/no cost
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #20,119
  • Jan 28, 2026 7:16am Jan 28, 2026 7:16am
Quoting Vowwow
{quote} I think the Spx is going to cross 7020 this week by FOMC Wednesday, or by Jan 30 2026 lets see what happens I have some ES calls in play
- how the week started
vs
how trades ended on Tuesday
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  • #20,120
  • Jan 28, 2026 7:18am Jan 28, 2026 7:18am
Let’s see what fomc brings today
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