FXD Harvesting Strategy

[quote=varun76;15536349]{quote} I had outlined to have a bare minimum system to produce 3-7% monthly gain.

Hi Varun,

The 3 to 7% per month figure certainly should grab everyones attention. You certainly have my attention.

These trades have come to profit, but I'll anticipate at least Weekly Resistance for the risk I have taken. Yet 47 pips is a good return to close, so is the entry, hence the suffering of waiting for the price to reach Weekly Resistance 1, It's a good example of setup and entry happening in real time. A higher low on H4, there is no divergence, but an oversold 60 stotchasting trend being long on H4, On hourly TF, there is another Higher Low and a divergence can also be observed acting as support as well. Let's observee how this one plays out!

[quote=ozziedave;15537432] HAHA lol. But that's what I was hoping to design around 2018/19, a strategy to deliver 3-7% montly return, but then what if achieving over 50-70% is even easier!

The 379% return closed on Achievable TE with net closed profit of $3.2 Milliion was achieved under 35 days in the month of July. Towards the end, the equity did touch $6+ mill (SOMO not closing it at that moment) without any confirmation of entries and execution, which I have taken some effort into putting it all together and improving over the years. It was a pure assumption back then, but doing exactly what I am sharing on this thread.

So I am not sure what this System/strategy/methodology can deliver, but I can definitely share the working and caution of where not to go wrong! Let's just say that before I started this thread, it was still incomplete. So I am as curious as anyone visiting this thread to see what happens next, but I was never at ease handling an ongoing account. Now I'm thrilled after eliminating all the worries I can think of. I have tested the depths to figure out how it can be avoided. Now I want to test the limits of the SKY if it has any

3-7% still sound great to me!!!

Yes, to me as well, it's a phenomenal return in the world we live in, but the concept of return in trading and real world are two different things imo.

EA & GA Exit

Total number of open trades atm 107/200. Let's call it a day, see ya'll tomorrow!!

GBPNZD UPDATE

Price did reach the first target, i.e., the upper Donchian channel average, 150 pips in total, but I did not close the trades to illustrate this part. An entry criterion was met, i.e., divergence on a lower high created by stochastic 60, and the price has touched or is near the upper donchain channel. Now it is a healthy practice to close the trades and re-enter limits/stop. Now I did not close this trade as I knew it would happen, so as to demonstrate something important. On a swing trade,, the minimum target I am expecting the price to touch is Weekly Resistance 1 but it did not, as on the higher TF, we have a higher low, and monthly resistance 1,, where the potential is a 250 pip move. So, for one, the market wanted me to close the profits and might open sell trades to catch the counter move happening perfectly on the hourly TF Sure, if only I could close it on time somehow if I'm away from computer these counter trades would keep me trapped either to close at cost or to keep holding expecting to add more short for price to revesse but are longs are alligning with upper TF with perfect setup of Higher Low on 4hr TF while price at monthly pivot and entry criteria is being met on hourly TF.

Hence, the price is trying to trap counter trades as much as possible. I call this Friday Saga, most of the counter trades almost all happen towards the end of the week, like this one or if there has been a solid move last week, then throughout the week, like GBPJPY. leveraging Sat/Sun for doubts and confusion in the virtual Trade TE, you can see it's not always possible to close the counter trades, but in case of trades that are in accordance with trend, there's nothing to worry if a few trades remain not closed after catching the move, as the price is just creating another Higher Low opportunity. The trend will never reverse without penetration. Monthly Resistance 1 on Daily TF vreating a Divergence on H4.

There is nothing to worry about when trading along the trend, even if it goes against, add mor,e but at any point, the total number of trades cannot go beyond 200, A drawdown flux between 1 - 15 % is normal at any point.

EURNZD

Daily TF is forming a new higher low 380 pips potential towards Monthly Resistance 1 on 4 HR TF Since the last opportunity on Daily TF there were many long/higher low on stochastic 10 opportunities the appeared on 4H TF that I have highlighted with aqua rectangle, on hourly TF all opportunities can be verified on the current one I have entered way too early and the previous move wasn't caught anyway! with current trades could give another Lower High (Counter Trades) might be to form a divergence. Let's see how this unfolds!

Hello Everyone, today I'm going to evaluate my Virtual Funds TE. This might be jaw-dropping. Hope you appreciate the effort in sharing this with everyone.

The reason this trade recovered throughout the week is that most of the trades were counter. To demonstrate the illustrations below, it was important to know how far they could be stretched when holding trades in accordance with the trend and against it. It's worth noting that there are two trades combined at any level, instead of one. I have tried to harvest mostly counter trades, still holding the negative position. Even after all this, the equity of my account is 14k, and as of this moment, the total invested balance is 17k. Through this,I want to highlight a few important things I have observed.

The current total number of open trades is 165/200


GBPNZD

No Counter trades, entered way too early with no entry criteria met, and to top it off, on the Daily TF, it took some time, still all are closed with profit, and only if I had not closed the immediate profit on the Near 200 SMA on 4hr, where the divergence was being created! SOMO

Coming back to the open trades.

EURUSD

All counter trades with 6 trades remaining, no trades in accordance with the trend were executed. Counter trades often reach BE, like here in the EU, so it's no biggie to hold one or two counter trades; it can be used as an advantage to prepare for a new opportunity, as one has presented on D TF, with divergence being formed on 4 HR TF

GBPCHF

After the previous Lower High on the Daily TF, the price moved in favour of the down trend, with the potential of 120 pips to be captured in accordance with SMA (34,55,200), and as the stochastic reached oversold area on the D TF, Divergence can be observed on 4hr that was broken, and a new higher low on 4hr appeared the previous higher low on 4h had a potential 80 pips to be captured.

To Be Continued!

Hi Varun,


Really enjoying the chart analysis. Keep up the good work.

Thanks for the kind compliment, Ozzie. Sometimes I get overwhelmed sharing the work of my lifetime. Words like this keep me Motivated!

NZDCAD

Monthly TF: I don't use Bar up and Bar down colours. If you change it to None, the spike will not be visible on the chart, providing more clarity. Price is forming a Lower Low and a Lower High, on the Monthly TF Stochastic is not visible as it is not needed to identify (HL, HH/LH, LL). MACD is sufficient to identify Highs and Lows of the past few candles, determing an major direction price is headed towards!

Weekly TF: Price is moving in accordance with the SMA, establishing a downtrend

Daily TF: There is a divergence at the (200,000,800) level. Price went to the previous (800,000,200) level and retested back to (200,000,800) to form a higher low, where the stochastic is oversold there is a divergence on 4 HR, but another LL is createdin these areas for manupulation but changing the bar up/down colour to None gives clarity, price only broke the previous LL on 4 hr to respect the previous LH formed on H4 in accordance with SMA. The market is always fair.

4 Hourly TF: Where I entered sell is where one would ask why it did not create a Lower Low and moved back right when I entered, as a valid opportunity had been presented, Lower High + Divergence, but these trades are still valid as price is headed towards upper (800,000,200) where weekly might print a Lower High. 4 HR Tf indicating an uptrend with new weekly levels targest can be estimated.

Hourly TF: Entry is only when the creteria is met. Price has to be near/touching Lower donchain channer aligning with stochastic 60 exactly where I entered sell!

I have not crafted this for intraday trading nor as a complete swing trading approach. What's important is to have a system I can certainly rely on for execution based on my SOP and entry criteria in accordance with 4hr Trend only, even now if I exit with -40 pips average and enter long when the market opens tommorow not just I'll cover these losses but also gain some extra pips for sure!

On ECAD, there are only 2 trades open atm.

EURNZD also has two trades open atm on Virtual Fund TE, and I've harvested some along the way. The hourly TF chart is of the TE attached to this thread, marking the recent entries. I entered very early, hence more unnecesesorry DD, but as long number of trades are bellow 200 and if the focus is only on catching Lower High & Higher Low, results will be amazing eleminating overindulgence on trading to a great extent, every day there are ample opportunities to get on the right once and just waiting 9-16 hours of active market sesson the trades would usually be ready to be harvestd.

EURAUD has only one trade openhaving while harvested some counters!

GBPCAD

Monthly TF: Price can be seen heading towards the previous Higher High resistance area.

Weekly TF: price in accordance with SMA creating Higher Lows.

Daily TF: Price has created divergence and a new Higher Low has been printed, indicating price is headed back upwards. Here I have entered way too early just because stochactic dippied bellow 80 and also where I should have executed that I have already harvested, but since it's not a counter trade holding these trades while the total number of open trades remain bellow 200 is completely fine!

4 HR TF: A new opportunity has appeared

1 HR TF: Entry criteria are met! Stotch 60 oversold. A divergence can be observed, and the price was near/touched the donchain lower band while aligning with the Stotch oversold area. When the market opens, limits and stops can be executed!

GBPAUD

Monthly TF: There is a divergence, and the piece is creating new highs and lows!

Weekly TF: Price is creating new Higher Lows in accordance with SMA (34,55,200)

Daily TF: Price is creating Lower Highs oppourtunities therefore, if the 4hr Trend is in accordance with SMA towards south, there might be some opportunity to be captured.

4 HR TF: An opportunity was presented the previous week that I executed on the TE attached to this thread. while only 2 trades are open on virtual TE

Hourly TF: Entry Criteria were met, i.e., Stochastic overbought price touched/near donchain upper band aligning with stochastic 60 overbought.

EURCAD

How to trade an opportunity in accordance with the Higher TF.

Daily TF: There is a divergence on Daily TF in accordance with the SMA. I'm only interested in buy trades.

4 HR TF: However, the trend is down in accordance with SMA, and there is a divergence, but still, if there is a valid long opportunity presents itself, I will enter like one has though it looks more likely on H4 price is creating Lower High on Hourly TF as well! and it looks more logical to enter sell I'll still enter long and harvest the Lower high now price obviously can't break the Previous High on 4 HR at a go it might come close to fibo level 786 are (Swing Zone) as a new lower high opportunity is created on H4,

1 HR TF: On hourly TF, my target would be the upper band always of the donchain channel, and I'll not enter until a new entry criterion is met, i.e., price near the lower donchain channel aligning with the stochastic 60.

On next post, I'll illustrate the importance of Active Harvesting.

Importance of Active Harvesting

GBPNZD & AUDNZD

Daily TF Is in accordance with SMA indicating long entries I did executed the trades but did not close it when it touched upper donchain band on 1 hour TF, letting go trades of 70,60,40 etc pips averaging 250-300 in both but since we still in accordance with trend where price is heading Monthly R1 now would be a nice time to re enter longs only after it is near or touches Lower Donchain channel that it is.