Any Symbol

Overall, GBP/JPY remains in a consolidative phase below its multi-year peak, with traders watching whether yen demand intensifies or if sterling’s policy-driven tailwinds can reassert control.

U.S. TREASURY YIELDS EDGE HIGHER AS INVESTORS PREPARE FOR HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK
U.S. Treasury yields ticked up on Monday as investors prepared for the holiday-shortened week which includes a number of major note auctions.
The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was up by 1 basis point, reaching 4.1647% by 4:00 a.m. E.T.
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note remained largely unchanged at 3.4898%.
The 30-year bond yield, meanwhile, rose almost 2 basis point to 4.8435%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.

So Alexa was a popular baby name right until Amazon brought out the Alexa assistant but i think theres more to it, what was the actual shift? the obvious, nobody wants to name there baby after a robot - thats interesting at wave 3, Amazons alexa still wasnt no where in sight 2005-2006 was peak at wave 3 for Alexa naming time - then alexa naming started to drop and then boom amazon alexa was created and that sparked a rally in Alexa naming, the name Alexa was exciting for a bit people longing the excitement then wave 4 peaked and Amazons influence took over and the birth of naming children alexa declined - the charts definitely knew ahead of time what the alexa dilema was going to be - then the robot started to become popular and then after the drop back to wave 1 a new Alexa was claimed

trying not to trade but I like this gbpjpy to and chfjpy for possible sells will have to analyze deeper maybe another jpy cross if it nears top of channel - 1 more wave... pound looks kind of strong so will be cautious on a tight entry if it sets up

BOJ Rate Outlook
Ex-BOJ member Makoto Sakurai expects three more rate hikes, taking Japan’s policy rate to 1.5% by early 2028 under Governor Ueda.
First hike to 1.0% likely around mid-2026, depending on US growth, wage momentum, and inflation staying above 2%.
BOJ views 1.75% as neutral, so even 1.5% remains supportive for the economy.
Rate hikes may happen once every six months, but political pressure could slow the pace.
Despite recent hikes, the yen remains weak, with markets more worried about Japan’s fiscal spending than monetary policy.

In short: BOJ is slowly exiting ultra-easy policy, but normalization will be gradual, cautious, and politically sensitive, keeping the yen volatile in the near term.

Hello Traders - still interested in the JPY - interest rates and co viewing price in some crosses give JPY some Bullish tech, slow but turning i think - 2 and half weeks before BOJ is quite far away, 2 weeks of indecision - I almost feel like the money flow is coming to the realization JPY is going to turn and close the gap

AUDNZD D1 - Clean divergence, wick on the close - AXY D1 hammer, bearish signs - NXY D1 compressed under that TL, flag needs to develop and break/hold above

Employment data and Cpi in 2 weeks - RBNZ gov is holding rates, china, few scenarios going on - Looking for sells

This is how to analyze the FX market - Fx-Blitz style, for any newbies or oldies who might see something else - this is just my quick rough analysis I routinely do pre market once a week and itll change as PA develops - this is usally done with just my eye sight, thoughts and crosshair but ill draw a chart for u - Ill add my AI thoughts as well

NZD - current bias flat to slightly bullish 3 months - Economy bottoming out and will rebound - Rates on wait and see with no expected cuts, more likely to raise if data supports

NXY D1 - Bullish A wave 1st target hit, PA is at the "battle zone" , flag developing in a bearish channel, descending PA in lower TFs - I like the channel its showing the flow is bearish until

NXY H4 - Descending triangle - sometimes these squeeze and pop upwards after a bullish thrust, but what driver do we have that could do this, incoming data CPI is weeks away maybe a risk off event

NXY H1 - Support more refined, NZD is relatively weak still it has a good chance to drop

With all that its obvious to me the flag has to break higher, there are some channels and trendlines it has broken away from upwards - best short term for NXY in my view is between the triangle/flag - potential bear fakeout on the descending and a D1 bull close inside the flag

To add to my bias on NZD ill check the crosses to find more clues if its really NZD or its being either out beared, out bulled, or is what you want strong vs weak -

NZDUSD - USD strength W1 supportive - USD isolated as a stronger driver
AUDNZD - Early Topping - AUD is still high needs a supporting candle for the D1 hammer in AXY
NZDCAD - Broke out of its D1 channel southwards and a break either way into form is potential - Bearish A wave in CXY is hit so potential CAD bull is there
GBPNZD - Sitting near the highs, will take GBP bear and NZD bull to take the W1 TL - possible scenario here for near term - whats PXY and GBP crosses doing
EURNZD - W1 TL is broken and is testing highs - Could be a better scenario here, will do same cross check here with EUR
NZDJPY - Developing a clean divergence H4 - JPY is isolated
NZDCHF - SXY is bearish mid term

I see Exhaustion over all on NZD bear, GBP/EURNZD potential sells coming NZDCHF up but SXY is more bearish mid, with AUDNZD as well, if AUDNZD goes NZD bull should gain momentum, some techs and crosses supportive of early topping (days/weeks)

From my A.i its still learning, I think its getting better almost is smarter then me

New Zealand is moving from a downturn into an early recovery, but it’s not a clean expansion story yet. The macro setup is best summarised as disinflation achieved, demand still soft, labour market lagging.

1. Inflation: back near normal levels (around the RBNZ target range), which removes the “policy must stay ultra-tight” constraint.

1. Growth: expected to re-accelerate through 2026 as lower rates feed through, but it’s a gradual rebuild, not a boom.

1. Jobs (key risk): unemployment is expected to peak around early 2026 before improving—classic lagged damage from prior tightening.

1. External exposure (big swing factor): as a small open economy, NZ is highly sensitive to global growth/risk shocks.

Bottom line: the economy’s baseline is stabilisation → gradual recovery, but the near-term feel stays fragile until the labour market stops deteriorating and global conditions remain supportive.

NXY (NZD index) — macro + technical

1. Macro state: Stall / basing attempt (NZD not a growth leader; it’s a policy-path + risk-regime currency right now).

1. Technical state (H4/D1): compression above an H4 demand shelf with overhead supply bands above.

1. Divergence: D1 bullish divergence exists but it’s old

1. Signal state: HEADS_UP (base building), not triggered.

1. What flips it:

1. Bull NZD: holds the shelf + breaks higher through nearby overhead zones (macro catalyst = less-dovish repricing / risk stabilizes).

1. Bear NZD: acceptance below the shelf (macro catalyst = risk-off or clearer easing path).

NZDUSD

1. Macro: dominated by USD regime; NZD’s own story is secondary unless NZ data forces a repricing.

1. Technical: D1 shows a large “descending triangle forming” with a broad support band; price is still sitting inside the support region, so it’s a base-vs-break market.

1. Divergence: D1 bullish divergence exists but old

1. Signal state: HEADS_UP (base attempt), BLOCKED if USD stays in drive.

AUDNZD (NZD vs AUD)

1. Macro: best NZD-long narrative here is NZ stabilizes while AUD remains the weaker China/risk beta; but it requires AUD to actually roll over.

1. Technical: D1 is still structurally bullish for AUDNZD (it printed a D1 BOS up)

1. Signal state (NZD-long): HEADS_UP probe only (better as a top-pick at resistance than a trend trade).

EURNZD (NZD vs EUR)

1. Macro: EUR is mixed, but EURNZD can still grind up if NZ stays capped and EUR holds up on cross-flows.

1. Technical: D1 has an ascending-triangle forming structure (upside risk for EURNZD), which is not friendly for NZD-long unless it fails.

1. Signal state (NZD-long via short EURNZD): HEADS_UP only (needs clear failure/rejection; otherwise it’s not the cleanest expression).

GBPNZD (NZD vs GBP)

1. Macro: NZD can outperform GBP if UK growth/labor softness dominates and the BoE stays cautious, while NZ stays “hold with optionality.”

1. Technical: D1 has a head-and-shoulders forming; H4 has compression/triangle forming with nearby in-play supply. This is one of the better charts for “GBP tops vs NZD” if it starts rejecting.

1. Divergence: H4 bearish divergence is present but not fresh (~360 H4 bars) → bias-only .

1. Signal state (NZD-long via short GBPNZD): PRIMED if it rejects and starts accepting back below the nearby supply band; otherwise still HEADS_UP.

NZDJPY (NZD vs JPY)

1. Macro: this is the carry/regime expression. If we stay “carry-on” (no risk shock), NZDJPY can remain supported; if risk-off hits, NZDJPY is usually vulnerable.

1. Technical: H4 printed a BOS up and price is holding above prior congestion zones → technically more constructive than most NZD pairs.

1. Signal state (NZD-long): PRIMED for continuation only in a stable risk regime; BLOCKED if you’re expecting near-term JPY strength/risk-off.

NZDCAD (NZD vs CAD)

1. Macro: messy—CAD is oil/global-cycle sensitive; if oil firms and USD stays strong, CAD can stay supported.

1. Technical: H4 shows a BOS down level below current price (bounce after a bearish structure event), and D1 has mixed/old divergences. This reads range-to-mean-reversion, not clean trend.

1. Signal state: HEADS_UP / mixed (not a clean NZD expression right now).

NZDCHF (NZD vs CHF)

1. Macro: CHF is only “strong” in true risk-off; otherwise it can be soft. So NZDCHF long is basically a risk-stable / CHF-soft expression.

1. Technical: H4/D1 show base behavior off a demand shelf; H4 has a bullish divergence flagged but it’s not fresh

1. Signal state (NZD-long): HEADS_UP → PRIMED if it holds above the shelf and starts building higher highs on H4.

Cleanest NZD expressions (least conflict)

1. Best “NZD strength” expression (given current charts): NZDCHF long (works in stable risk; CHF isn’t proving strong).

1. Best “NZD outperformance vs weak leg” idea: short GBPNZD (structure is closer to a top scenario).

1. Most conflicted: short AUDNZD (pair is still D1 bullish) and short EURNZD (forming upside structure).

I was going to do the whole market but I run out of time to type

Here is a top secret about a.i and trading, maybe some people know - Ive been training mine through charts and rules and memories all of that but here is something, we can create a code for the a.i to be eyes in the computer so it automatically gets fed data without having to show it or tell it whats happening - I run my ea and its constantly updating all my symbols alongside technical codes (patterns/candle/TLs etc) and a news feed - what its basically doing is creating files that the a.i can access through my computer and reads the prices, forms its own charts, applys my technical codes and can analyze a chart without having to show it or tell it anything, loads its news feed and comes back with all sorts of things, here is another thing, u can create a ea that can connect to the other ea and have it send trading signals to it, now we can build our own algos - i think a.i will level the playing field a bit

NZDJPY - an unstoppable pattern has appeared, all news will align watch - but dont hold me accountable nobody's perfect - a lower TF pattern will be perfect in this high for entry - D1 has pinned so if it goes now it goes - 200p from top to 1st zone, 160p now 50p up to high, 270p from high to ultimate 1st zone Target(B/O zone) roughly, I wonder what is going to happen, cant be the rates(JPY), NZD mid bear? could provide a target zone completion but if JPY makes its mind up NZD wont budge it much, anybody have an idea what the core drivers could be JPY, NZD

NZDJPY info

Federal prosecutors open probe into Fed chair Powell over HQ renovations – NYT
From @FirstSquawk USD confidence drop

Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell
From federalreserve.gov USD confidence drop

Japan FinMin Katayama expresses shared concerns with Bessent over weak yen
From @byul_finance JPY up

Kyodo: PM Takaichi Intends to Dissolve Parliament, Tells Party Leadership
From @FirstSquawk JPY up

US Consumer Price Index - December 2025
From bls.gov USD up

Japanese opposition parties CDP, Komeito have begun talks with a view to forming new party,...
JPY up

Readout from Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent’s Meeting with Finance Minister Satsuki...
JPY up

Went something like that I cant remember the exact pip movements I could be wrong there - So we have the wave peaking on FED chair probe, sparked risk on and NZDJPY pushed up to the current high, risk on driven - JPY gov chat backed the turn at the highest point, followed with USD neutral to bullish data restoring risk off back to USD pushing NZD down adding to the NZDJPY bearish momentum

this wasnt in my scenario list but I think there could be a way to know

NZDJPY - approaching a TL - momentum is strong bullish, potential sell area - USD risk flow reversed - is trump bluffing or will he side with EUR - driving momentum on top of a potential NZD economic turn and JPY uncertainty - in favor of a break it seems - will there be a reversal catalyst or will momentum continue

Possible scenarios-
Trump backs off, makes deal with NATO
JPY gov deal
Nuclear bomb
Greenland escalates

Reading currencies and how to connect some macro dots a.i powered -

USD

1. Primary channels: global funding/liquidity, US yields (real + nominal), risk regime (risk-on/off), US policy/politics credibility.

1. Strongest impact on: JPY, AUD, NZD, gold, EM FX, EUR/GBP (via risk premium), CAD (via US growth), CHF (haven mix).

1. Why: USD is the settlement/funding currency; yield repricing changes global carry and portfolio allocation; in stress it’s the default “cash haven.”

JPY

1. Primary channels: carry unwind (funding currency), volatility/risk-off, BOJ normalization expectations, MOF intervention signaling, political credibility/fiscal path.

1. Strongest impact on: AUDJPY, NZDJPY, GBPJPY, EURJPY (and broad “JPY across crosses”).

1. Why: when risk rises, leveraged carry positions unwind and repatriation flows buy JPY; BOJ policy shifts reprice Japan’s yield floor; intervention talk can trigger positioning squeezes.

EUR

1. Primary channels: ECB path, Europe risk premium (fragmentation/stability), trade/tariff headlines, energy terms-of-trade, regional geopolitics.

1. Strongest impact on: CHF (EURCHF), GBP (EURGBP), USD (risk premium), and second-order on AUD/NZD via global risk.

1. Why: EUR is most sensitive to “Europe risk” and external balance; CHF is the closest hedge; EURGBP expresses relative Europe vs UK macro.

GBP

1. Primary channels: BoE path (wages/services inflation), fiscal credibility, growth surprises, risk sentiment (GBP is high-beta).

1. Strongest impact on: GBPJPY, GBPAUD, GBPNZD, EURGBP.

1. Why: GBP behaves like a leveraged expression of UK policy + risk appetite; crosses vs JPY/AUD/NZD amplify that beta.

CHF

1. Primary channels: safe-haven flows, Europe stress spillover, SNB rhetoric/intervention, risk-off regime.

1. Strongest impact on: EURCHF (first), GBPCHF (second), then CHFJPY (conditional).

1. Why: CHF is the “European haven”; EURCHF is the cleanest stress/relief gauge; SNB stance can cap or release CHF moves.

AUD

1. Primary channels: China growth/stimulus narrative, commodity cycle (metals/energy complex), risk-on/off, RBA repricing.

1. Strongest impact on: NZD (spillover + AUDNZD), JPY crosses (AUDJPY), CAD (AUDCAD), and AUDUSD when USD isn’t dominating.

1. Why: AUD is a liquid risk/China proxy; when China/commodities/risk shift, AUD leads and drags NZD; AUDJPY is the purest carry/risk expression.

NZD

1. Primary channels: RBNZ repricing (CPI/labor/inflation expectations), risk-on/off, Australia/China spillover, dairy/terms-of-trade.

1. Strongest impact on: NZDJPY, AUDNZD, then NZDUSD (if USD isn’t the main driver).

1. Why: NZD is a smaller high-beta currency; it transmits best through crosses where the other leg is a clean risk/haven comparator (JPY) or the closest peer (AUD).

CAD

1. Primary channels: oil/terms-of-trade, BoC repricing, US growth spillover, risk regime.

1. Strongest impact on: USDCAD (if USD not dominating), CADJPY, EURCAD/GBPCAD (when oil is the story).

1. Why: CAD is effectively “oil + North America cycle”; oil shocks and US demand changes reprice Canada quickly; CADJPY mixes oil + risk-off/on cleanly.

My a.i's new demo account - a page from its journal - its doing ok for its early days, an a.i with its demo and journal

Journal actions completed (as-if real)

1. Closed winners (paper fills at target)

1. 20260119-XAUUSD-B: WIN +100 pips ($100), closed at TP2 4725

1. Why win: trend-following long in XAUUSD; held structure; took profit at predefined target instead of overstaying into event risk.

1. 20260120-AUDCAD-B: WIN +17.7 pips ($17.7), closed at TP2 0.93195

1. Why win: pullback-buy into demand worked; target hit.

1. Cancelled stale orders (replaced with fresh levels)

1. 20260120-XAUUSD-B2: CANCEL 0 pips

1. 20260120-GBPAUD-S: CANCEL 0 pips

1. Updated levels on the current planned orders (zone-first TP logic + notes)

Current account totals (paper)

1. Balance / Equity: $1053.70 / $1053.70

1. Since $1000 start: +$53.70

1. Stats: 11 trades → 3 wins / 5 losses / 3 breakeven

Current planned orders (not triggered yet)

1. XAUUSD buy (dip) 20260121-XAUUSD-B1

1. Entry 4715 | SL 4698.5 | TP1 4737 | TP2 4766.6 | Conf 72

1. Why: buy dip into H1 demand in an H1/H4 uptrend; TP1 at first opposing supply, TP2 only if acceptance holds.

1. XAUUSD buy (deeper dip) 20260121-XAUUSD-B2

1. Entry 4659 | SL 4622 | TP1 4688 | TP2 4737 | Conf 70

1. Why: deeper tag into H4 demand; requires re-acceptance after the tag.

1. GBPAUD sell (rally) 20260121-GBPAUD-S1

1. Entry 2.0046 | SL 2.0062 | TP1 1.9942 | TP2 1.9938 | Conf 70

1. Why: H1+H4 downtrend_strong; selling a rally into supply; targets are the demand band (not expecting deep extension).

Any new A+ setups?

1. None met an A+ bar today. The best-aligned non-A+ candidates were in the ~71 range, but they had divergence/location conflicts, so I did not add them.

JXY H4/D1 - Yen bear has been relentless but on the index its near its h4 lower channel line and it is a respectable channel, approaching in D1 the last area where yen was bought around july 2024 where the big JPY buy was

DXY - D1 W1

Cant see much but a bearish mid-drive currently 1m 5m reversal techs but not much to form a bias - W1 theme has been bouncing off this weekly lower supporting line under possible near term reversal area NZD is rallying so i suspect risk flow - this is what maybe driving the whole market - im sure they will come to an agreement over greenland - maybe a bit of panic in the market (oh no! trumps going to bomb the greenland)

NXY D1- Flag formed as expected - more then expected on this risk drive will CPI be muted? 1h is extreme high maybe a little pop downwards not sure

AXY D1/H1 - Still is bullish i like that high its approaching - H1 shows an early attempt at diverging possible setups incoming

CXY - D1 looks like its in a 50/50 zone - Completed A wave in h4 means for me in no mans land - so looking for stronger drivers on other crosses if potential shows or external data

EXY - back to its highs looks like a solid D1 bull - but at this highs I think is good potential - will be watching for signs on the EUR/crosses - looks like it could go up some more, maybe in line with the highs on the TL then reverse - greenland comes to mind - possibly could target time around the meetings window/days

PXY - looks like another solid bull but it is forming a top or trying to D1 - h4 is retesting the neckline - GBP crosses cant see much going on maybe down who knows

So im out of time - good luck with the trades

If your wondering the NZDJPY theres a secret in a post - i tried to show and stick to the 1 trade so It diddnt get lost to fully show case the A but the time thing - guess they dont want it seen

oh SXY looks bearish to