Overall, GBP/JPY remains in a consolidative phase below its multi-year peak, with traders watching whether yen demand intensifies or if sterling’s policy-driven tailwinds can reassert control.
Carl Dupion
U.S. TREASURY YIELDS EDGE HIGHER AS INVESTORS PREPARE FOR HOLIDAY-SHORTENED WEEK
U.S. Treasury yields ticked up on Monday as investors prepared for the holiday-shortened week which includes a number of major note auctions.
The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was up by 1 basis point, reaching 4.1647% by 4:00 a.m. E.T.
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note remained largely unchanged at 3.4898%.
The 30-year bond yield, meanwhile, rose almost 2 basis point to 4.8435%.
One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
U.S. Treasury yields ticked up on Monday as investors prepared for the holiday-shortened week which includes a number of major note auctions.
The 10-year Treasury yield — the benchmark for U.S. government borrowing — was up by 1 basis point, reaching 4.1647% by 4:00 a.m. E.T.
Yields on the 2-year Treasury note remained largely unchanged at 3.4898%.The 30-year bond yield, meanwhile, rose almost 2 basis point to 4.8435%.One basis point equals 0.01%, or 1/100th of 1%, and yields and prices move inversely to one another.
Carl Dupion
- #23
- Edited 3:51pm Dec 22, 2025 3:20pm | Edited 3:51pm
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BOJ Rate Outlook
Ex-BOJ member Makoto Sakurai expects 
three more rate hikes, taking Japan’s policy rate to 1.5% by early 2028 under Governor Ueda.
First hike to 1.0% likely around mid-2026, depending on US growth, wage momentum, and inflation staying above 2%.
BOJ views 1.75% as neutral, so even 1.5% remains supportive for the economy.
Rate hikes may happen once every six months, but political pressure could slow the pace.
Despite recent hikes, the yen remains weak, with markets more worried about Japan’s fiscal spending than monetary policy.
In short: BOJ is slowly exiting ultra-easy policy, but normalization will be gradual, cautious, and politically sensitive, keeping the yen volatile in the near term.
Ex-BOJ member Makoto Sakurai expects
First hike to 1.0% likely around mid-2026, depending on US growth, wage momentum, and inflation staying above 2%.
BOJ views 1.75% as neutral, so even 1.5% remains supportive for the economy.
Rate hikes may happen once every six months, but political pressure could slow the pace.
Despite recent hikes, the yen remains weak, with markets more worried about Japan’s fiscal spending than monetary policy.
In short: BOJ is slowly exiting ultra-easy policy, but normalization will be gradual, cautious, and politically sensitive, keeping the yen volatile in the near term.
Carl Dupion
