Blue's Clues to Trading: Timing Levels and Behaviour of Price

Something came up that I want to address..Huge topic as it can go deep and it does go deep into our
personal psyche...

How do we get into a trade ? What kind of confirmation do we need/have?
If THIS then THAT scenarios.....

I want to make clear we need rules we need guidelines and principles.. All I say is just my opinion
and how I see things...We are all different

Total 100% mechanical systems vs. Discretionary.... Now it is my opinion both can thrive.
In fact I know that as fact from my own experience and from others that I know.
Discretionairy doesnt mean gambler either If THIS then THAT applies.

Ive been on Youtube alot the last few days as Ive been laid up sort of...
A torn MCL from months ago is given me crippling grief..and then I put my back out the
otherday ..Sciatica popped.. and to top it off I cant take any pain meds due to the several blood
thinners im currently on... I digress lol...

My good friend Stacey Burke put up a post that I will copy and paste in here and as well
a Volume profile kid I follow. Cam..Cammy capital I think he calls himself.. a kiwi.
Put up a post and video that I will link in here.

Watch the short read the posts.. If you get it you get it.. I know I get it..and what it all leads back to
is Vidvads PriceBob thread,,,,,EXECUTION...

You see we are going to lose over and over and over..forever you me them will lose.
But our losses we can control..and the OUTCOME if we have EDGE will be positive IF IF IF
we control our losses and let our edge play out,,The wins come... Now here’s where I differ from some,
I believe in pressing our winners always...Thanks Tom Hougaard.....

I actually always have been the type to press my winners ..but my problem was for years letting them go and get some big ass trades..huge trades and I would let many come back and take me out at BE..
A personal psych problem that I have overcome with RULES and learning the hard way ..

So accepting loss..executing our edge and pressing our winners...I have to agree with my friend Driven (ya I know hes on my ignore list lol) but yes its a mindset to press...Its not for everyone. But I think everyone can learn something from pressing winners...and perhaps just that extra little press over time really adds to your bottom line.

Which leads me to Gamblers...Now I dont look at trading as gambling but I do see them as cousins
Alot can be learned from successful professional gamblers.. Vidvads thread and the Epiphany are a great example..

So these posts and short video got me to thinking about the questions I have received in private....
In regards to how do you pull the trigger Blue ? What Confirmation are you looking at,,,,

So first read these, think on these ,,watch the video...

And here and now to the World.. I get stopped out alot executing...But I will get back in..you see we are dealing with/trading with LIMITED INFORMATION and the market can do whatever it wants...
BUT as the market session develops we CAN gather more INFORMATION that CAN HELP make better informed decisions... So we have to give ourselves breathing room to make mistakes,,
to be early and get stopped out.. BUT BE PREPARED TO EXECUTE AGAIN.
AND LET YOUR EDGE PLAY OUT.

Anyways enough rambling...I will post these gems up from 2 good guys...and then I will get into some charts and what I am looking at.and maybe some ideas that will help anyone who is interested !

Cheers !
Blue

[attach]FireShot Capture 093 - Post from Cammy Capital - YouTube - [www.youtube.com].jpg;5125262[/attach]
[attach]FireShot Capture 094 - Stacey Burke Trading - YouTube - [www.youtube.com].jpg;5125263[/attach]

Long time Bluesteele.

Sucks getting older and always a catch 22 with the pain meds.
You’ll have to scale out of the hockey a little and scale into the trading until you’re better.

Good to see you back

I have watched some vids from Trader Dale, he has a handful of free books and vids..
might be of interest.



cheers

Thanks DPM ! Where does the time go eh ! It's sobering at times when the old body just aint what it used to be.
I have really delved deeper into my own personal development lately....Something Ive always done but now I just
feel the need to grow further...And I think a big reason is just dealing with health and mortality..not only from myself
but family members and loved ones.

It would be so easy to let many of lifes tribulations drag one down..and with trading I cant have that and with just plain
old life I cant have that...So I have joined a group that focuses on development and mindset etc,,, Already feeling better
both mentally and physically...so a big win ....

And Trader Dale YES ! he has some excellent material... I quite like him..and for the FX traders he does alot of that.
The decentralized market of fx trading can be traded using data and using Vol Profile VWAP order flow etc..
It's all possible !

Thanks for sharing that DPM... If someone lives in the USA you can get those books free from Trader Dale.
I have the pdfs and if I was in the States I would most definitely have the hard copies...Available on amazon too for us that
dont live in the states...

And with that said and Trader Dale above I shall post this:
[attach]FireShot Capture 095 - Cammy Capital - YouTube - [www.youtube.com].jpg;5125304[/attach]


Cheers !

I have Dales book in pdf too; thanks for pointing out that US citizens can get the paper books easier than non-US citizens; I forgot.

Vivad pointed out about reading a good ole paper book again over on his thread..

Some good paper books does the mind good too along with the good and helpful group you joined. An excuse to take a trip with the family to town and the bookstore. We have indigo here; good store.️

Marcus Aurelius, the Roman Emperor from nearly 2000 years, authored one book (compilation of notes really) that we know of: Meditations. This collection of 12 books consists of personal philosophical reflections serving as notes for his own Stoic self-improvement.
Miyamoto Musashi, the legendary undefeated Japanese swordsman has words on self-discipline and self improvement.

As a flawed being, I struggle to follow the advice I read in these books, but they do help raise self awareness and thought….

see you on the charts..

Gold has been quite volatile. Looks like it may move down to VWAP… but using a little fundies surrounding all the uncertainty, the talk of Greenland, Venezuela, Cuba etc…. Gold may work its way up to $5000 at some point after some ‘liquidity’ grabs near the big gap up near 4518-4527… which is also at VWAP. I’m not trading for a bit, just watching (mindset reset thingy)..

Confirmations... Smart traders
Using data back to levels

I will tie all of this together but this video fits my trading to the tee.

I may have suffering from a really bad "Smart Trader Sindrome" as my brain seeks a way to be "secure" about confirming a trade.

Let´s analyze in hindsight and from my humble wortless brain the possible trades of today Gold market if I tried a more gambler mindset without confirmation signal.

Trade 1: Realizing I´m caught in the middle of IB trend, but returning from outside to the VAL/VPL line, if tried entering short at VAL touch would be a loss, not enough confluences maybe.

Trade 2: As seen VWAP line supported price before, would try to enter at touch to see if I could run price to the downside again. Trading at middle of IB range still poor judgement, if took the trade I would loss it too because price crossed it to continue up.

Pause....I agree trade 1 and 2 is poor judgement of the context as not enough confluence presented, but we are going to a better positive scenario with trade 3 and 4.

Trade 3: Price crossed IBH and returning back to it, would enter at touch, trade would run in my direction for a few ticks, not arriving at my goal of touching VPH and probably doing a BE when returning back.

Trade 4: I would enter again at touch of IBH, this time price would get to VPH so success!.

Trade 5: How to enter a trade like this? I can´t know if price will touch 50% IB and reverse or continue UP. If entering a short trade at touch of 50%IB line would be like tossing a coin, may go up or down...would be maybe a wise thinking to enter short as price is outside VP value area and outside 1SD of yesterday Globex Vwap.

Trade 6: Again would bet in touching VWAP and going up so entering at VWAP touch, the next bearish candle closed down VWAP so probably I would close the trade for a loss. Also all this price action happening in the middle of IB, VP, and Globex VWAP, so taking this trade along trade 2 would be poor judgement.

Realistically, Trade 4 and Trade 5 would be the only ones working out if lucky to watch them in real time as good as in hindsight now. Rest would be losses acording to how I viewed the context.

Excellent summation Tradernurse !!!!!

Let me have a look see !

One thing that is always on my radar is the Weekly Vol Profile and the Weekly VWAP...As for monday and Tuesday and sometimes Wed..I will use the previous weeks data to carry into the new week... Otherwise for ex...The Monday Weekly VWAP is the same as the session or daily.. Not much data..

I do the same with the Monthly Vol Pro and VWAP ..new month I carry last months fwd... and one other point before some charts and examples is I also do the same
say from Weds 820 gold cash open...Anchored VWAP to that to carry fwd into Thurs session... It's just my way of drilling down where is fair value ? Are we balanced etc. What is price being responsive too? Sometimes its the Globex open Vwap sometimes its the prev days session... I trade whats most reasonable and responsive,
Other key point is this... Is Value Overlapping..If so for how many seesions...THen as well A vwap and vol pro get anchored to the beginning of the Fair value overlapping starting point... Ive eluded to that here in past posts... Not real important at this moment... But worth mentioning...

Anyways Weekly Vol Pro and Weekly VWAP are mainstays for me on ES and GC which are my main 2 mkts of late...Its's where I always start my analysis and then I go up and down from there gauging WHeres Value and Balance.

Heres what I saw this morning on Gold.

One other point to hammer home :
The market tends to persist in its current behavior rather than
abruptly changing direction. Instead of predicting shifts, we align
with prevailing market conditions. Trade based on what you see, not
what you hope

Which makes me think of how markets spend more time Ranging(fair value) then trending(Price discovery)
whether its 80-20 doesnt matter ...But it tends to persist in its current behaviour on a fractal basis.

OK Gold this morning first chart with a weekly comp Vol Pro drawn to 819am for the 820 cash open.
Second chart with Vol Profile and Weekly VWAP
First thing we know this morning is Price is Opening in VALUE..Price tends to persist in its current behaviour.
If we know that principle,,,,Perhaps we should be looking to FADE the Edges of Value...Not that other setups arent present
which the opening provided.... But looking to trade the edge of value if it presents..

One thing I have repeatedly gone on about is pay attention to the Open..
That is the Cash Open for the market your trading.. Gold 820 Silver 825 Oil 900 equities 930 etc.

So on Gold today price opens and holds above the open for 4 or 5 minutes then a nice reversal candle
down..WHere does price go ? To the EDGE OF VALUE then retraces...

Remember.....
The market tends to persist in its current behavior rather than
abruptly changing direction. Instead of predicting shifts, we align
with prevailing market conditions. Trade based on what you see, not
what you hope

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OK carrying on with the principle...

The market tends to persist in its current behavior rather than
abruptly changing direction. Instead of predicting shifts, we align
with prevailing market conditions. Trade based on what you see, not
what you hope


When Price Is BALANCED / in FAIR VALUE.. POC VAH VAL... price will mean revert back to the most popular
price that is both POC and VWAP...Data tells us that...and when price MOVES thru the POC/VWAP price
will generally test the other side of Value... Its simply the Auction playing out..Auction Market Theory 101.

So Gold Opens in Value today.. Gold tests the Weekly(lots of data)VAL rejects and moves back up thru POC thru VWAP.
Wheres the next stop ? Probability tells us the other edge of Value. VAH and almost to the tick it hits it...

Now where to enter ? dont get caught up in the details... Play the odds..the probabilites... The VAL tag first thing this a.m.
may have stopped some out.,,thats where you need to have confidence in your trading and see what is the market doing ?
It then makes a double bottom... Give the trade some room ..enter lighter..if thats what it takes.

OK

VAL TO POC TO VAH AND BACK.... a very balanced market on the larger TF.....Weekly.


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Heres another example from the ES earlier this week that encompasses so much
it was a gem of a trade.

News printed 830 and pushed price out of balance....again Weekly Vol Profile and Weekly Vwap
Price comes quickly back into balance and with all sorts of levels at play 5 actually inc the Open
that engulfing candle was the same from the 5m to the 3 2 1 etc.

Where does price go To POC VWAP pushes straight thru to the other side of Value.
A 10-30pt ES trade depending on your entry and target..not too shabby.

ES load the boat trade
Weekly Vol Profile and monthly VWAP as well as prev day NY Vol Profile

Apply the 5 minute ORB and "Mebob with Roadmap, all worked well. Good stuff Blue and glad you are back aboard

Cheers T !!!

The 5m ORB and RoadMap are always on my radar. RoadMap has given me so many great setups for yearsm. Nothing has changed except that I'm taking trades with other setups.

And there are many times where my other setups align with roadmap.., and I continue to use the eight EMA Channel as a momentum indicator.
Looking generally from the one minute to 5 minute Channel.

Laura was so wonderful to share the roadmap method along with all of her other contributions..
I've saved hundreds and hundreds of roadmap charts and always thinking I'm going to share on Laura's thread and they just sit in my hard drive lol..

Perhaps I'll put a little bit of time to sharing some road map charts on Laura's thread and maybe it gets the thread a little bit more attention and help somebody out as it's a very viable method.. the only variable is the trader .

Hi Blue!

Great analysis as always, for sure there has been levels that I didn´t check at that time, and something important that I should remenber every minute "
"The market tends to persist in its current behavior rather than
abruptly changing direction."

But as someone who is initiating to analyze the market with this logical framework I find many levels that I need to focus on that I don´t know how to proceed.
- Initial Balance.
- Vwap from globex, from session open daily, weekly, monthly.
-VP from Globex, from session open daily, weekly, monthly.

It´s uncertain to know from advance to what levels price will react to or just cross, so entering sometimes just when touching may seem uncertain at moment.

Is there any order in the process of analyzing the market? Like you have a chart with everything enabled on and just look for multiple confluences or reactions, or you maybe go activating and deactivamente the different VP, VWAPS and just letting on the ones that seems more close to the price?

"The only variable is the trader" Hard truth!

Happy sunday everyone!

Hi TraderNurse,,,

I generally start with a Weekly outlook...and that weekly outlook can be longer than a week...and the reason I say that is this....
Where's Value ? In particular do we have overlapping value ? That to me is just days where the Vol Profile overlaps another days...by 50% ++

With the ES or any other US indice I generally just look at RTH's vol Profile...Or if I have globex up( I normally have a screen for that)
But ES im Looking at RTH VP...or RTH+Globex VP as one...and grenerally the 2 combined are similar to RTH...Because RTH is where the majority
of the volume is with US Indices...

Now with Gold a different beast...I have Vol profile set for Globex and then For NY 820am onwards... (charts will show)
Prev days VP levels generally play out in the following session....

So I start looking on a weekly basis or so at Value..both with VWAP and VP.... It is always different which levels come into play.
I will take trades around vwap and POC but prefer trading from the edge of value.. will give some examples of this.

Starting then with the weekly and then to the session/daily is about it....I always toggle the monthly levels on/off to see where
price is in relation to the monthly...and it goes without saying when monthly weekly levels line up pay attention.

I have referenced Chris Drysdale numerous times and he does a good job explaining setups... I trade very similar but I am not a
scalper..its only a few trades a day for me and thats it... But Price Discovery Continuation...VWAP bounces...Fade Value area extremes etc.

Anyways lets look at some charts and see if I can illustrate Overlapping value etc...and When I find overlapping value I am anchoring VWAP to it
and start a Vol Profile..and as each day/session ends I am checking that days value(VP >VAH-VAL 70% area )
I only need 2 days or sessions(gold) to start that process and monitor then price behaviour as it unfolds.

OK some charts....



Now add a VWAP and VOL pro to the start of your overlapping value.

Gold a much more global mkt than the ES for ex... especially this past year with China alone tearing up the globex
with I think near 30Tons of gold added this past year to their reserves...while decreasing their US treasuries.
14 straight months of purchasing gold for China... Anyways I digress...We all know GOld is on a terror as is Silver.

SO Gold I use Globex Vol Profile and NY...sometimes I will combine the entire day...but Generally 2 seperate VPs.
Wheres Value...Wheres Balance

Just using the Previous Sessions VP levels VAH VAL POC has given tremendous trades by themselves.
Adding a composite Volume profile either on a M-F weekly basis or following OVerlapping value can be a
great addition to just daily levels....

Here's some charts of Gold...and one other thing is I love RoadMap (Lauras thread) and will use that in conjunction
with VP levels and VWAP setups.... Banger confluence setups.

Did I mention RoadMap ? From Lauras RoadMap thread

Always on my charts in the background...It either sets up in my timing window or not.
Its a simple 8ema H/L channel and a 200sma....
Gold and ES the 1min is the TF for entries (generally) I will
use the 2 3 and 5 as well... Moreso to see they align...
For simplicity the 1 and 5 lined up are normally gold

It basically evolved with me where I use Vol Profile and VWAP in conjuction with RoadMap.
THe other thing is I can have a setup say a Price Discovery long that has not used RoadMap
for entry at all,,, BUT I will use RoadMap as guide... THat involves using mostly the 8ema channel.
I am simply looking at where is priced opening and closing in relation to the channel..
Inside outside etc... Strong momentum=Candles completely opening outside of the channel
in the direction of your trade.... Anyways I digress as usual...Will post some charts up in another post
about that,,,,,,,

But heres the past week Gold RoadMap a number of good opportunities...excellent opportunities actually.

Check out Lauras thread . ( plus she has a journal to check out)
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...o-read-markets











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