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  • #220,701
  • Jan 16, 2026 11:03am Jan 16, 2026 11:03am
Great end to the week.
Wishing everyone a peaceful and refreshing weekend.
Use the time to reset, review, and come back sharper next week.
Markets will still be here. Our discipline should be too.
“Fall seven times, stand up eight.”
  • #220,702
  • Jan 16, 2026 11:16am Jan 16, 2026 11:16am
Trump made us miss a great opportunity for next week.
I like to hold my positions for a few days, but given the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's future, I prefer not to stay in the market too long. Trump wants low interest rates, while the Fed seems to have the opposite view, and this situation is likely to continue until the appointment of the next Fed chair (in May).
  • #220,703
  • Jan 16, 2026 11:39am Jan 16, 2026 11:39am
Quoting Lhelene
Trump made us miss a great opportunity for next week. I like to hold my positions for a few days, but given the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's future, I prefer not to stay in the market too long. Trump wants low interest rates, while the Fed seems to have the opposite view, and this situation is likely to continue until the appointment of the next Fed chair (in May).
In my view, Trump will do everything possible to secure strong results in the upcoming midterm elections.

The fact that Senator Thom Tillis has announced he will not support new Fed nominations as long as the legal investigations are ongoing, combined with the prosecutor later walking back her initial stance, suggests to me that the Fed is still being treated as institutionally untouchable for now.

I therefore assume Trump will primarily pursue other channels, such as measures like a credit card interest rate cap or escalation toward Iran. A further direct escalation with the Fed itself seems less likely to me, although, of course, one can never fully rule it out.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,704
  • Jan 16, 2026 12:15pm Jan 16, 2026 12:15pm
m15
the tick signals are for downside trend
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  • #220,705
  • Jan 16, 2026 2:17pm Jan 16, 2026 2:17pm
Market wasn't very generous today for me lol, got stopped out and price dumped to my original TP, I'll analyze what could've been done better, but still I am happy of the progress I made this week, I completely removed all of the mistakes I was doing because I was destroying myself psychologically...

Anyway, price is now likely targeting 1.152x, with a very strong bearish displacement, so we"ll see how it progresses in the future!

Have a good week all and stay safe!
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #220,706
  • Jan 16, 2026 4:17pm Jan 16, 2026 4:17pm
Quoting Lhelene
Trump made us miss a great opportunity for next week. I like to hold my positions for a few days, but given the uncertainty surrounding the dollar's future, I prefer not to stay in the market too long. Trump wants low interest rates, while the Fed seems to have the opposite view, and this situation is likely to continue until the appointment of the next Fed chair (in May).
Anyway, I’ve noticed that fundamental views don’t seem to add much value in this thread.
If anyone wants to discuss fundamentals in more depth, feel free to PM me.
For this thread, I’ll stick to posting entries and results only going forward.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,707
  • Jan 17, 2026 3:08am Jan 17, 2026 3:08am
For daily analysis According to me
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Hi I'm Aayush.j
  • #220,708
  • Jan 17, 2026 4:26am Jan 17, 2026 4:26am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Trade complete. All happened to plan though the bounce l predicted was a little more violent than expected and put me under water for a sec (trade fully logged in following quotes back). From here looking at a BO on either side of falling wedge TLs. I am a little biased for bulls to come back in to liquidate their positions topside up to around 61.8fib of current bear move. {image}
I am short again on EU with another 2:1 trade. I got left deep waiting for my confirmation candle to complete. Though this zone looks to have bullish implications the bearish PA is telling me it will go lower before another rebound.

If my trade does fail however I will be looking at the filled blue triangle to enter long. If successful I will likely be looking to long at the filled blue box.
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On the weekly there is a bit of a misfit H&S. Even though the small unfilled blue box is lower than the magenta box (should be higher for a true H&S), it is only a tail that suggests there is little support built on the spike downside. The magenta box however has a lower structure than there is above the blue box meaning PA was being forced downside. The red box is a personal indication and a swing trade setup that signals this could potentially turn into a bear trend.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #220,709
  • Edited 5:38am Jan 17, 2026 4:57am | Edited 5:38am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I am short again on EU with another 2:1 trade. I got left deep waiting for my confirmation candle to complete. Though this zone looks to have bullish implications the bearish PA is telling me it will go lower before another rebound. If my trade does fail however I will be looking at the filled blue triangle to enter long. If successful I will likely be looking to long at the filled blue box. {image} On the weekly there is a bit of a misfit H&S. Even though the small unfilled blue box is lower than the magenta box (should be higher for a...
Triangl, not blue box!
We probably won't have data like we did on December 10, but I expect some déjà vu, which is why I mentioned the blue triangle as a likely option. But as Galileo Galilei said, "and yet it spin" ...
  • #220,710
  • Jan 17, 2026 10:48am Jan 17, 2026 10:48am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} Anyway, I’ve noticed that fundamental views don’t seem to add much value in this thread. If anyone wants to discuss fundamentals in more depth, feel free to PM me. For this thread, I’ll stick to posting entries and results only going forward.
That's true, and I think it's a shame because fundamental analysis is the basis of financial markets.
  • #220,711
  • Jan 17, 2026 10:51am Jan 17, 2026 10:51am
Quoting aayushjaiswa
For daily analysis According to me {image}
Same analysis, only I'm aiming for 1.154
  • #220,712
  • Edited Jan 18, 2026 8:10am Jan 17, 2026 12:40pm | Edited Jan 18, 2026 8:10am
Quoting Lhelene
{quote} That's true, and I think it's a shame because fundamental analysis is the basis of financial markets.
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} Anyway, I’ve noticed that fundamental views don’t seem to add much value in this thread. If anyone wants to discuss fundamentals in more depth, feel free to PM me. For this thread, I’ll stick to posting entries and results only going forward.
My friends.. know the distinction: "Fundamentals" tell you "what to buy" and "Technicals" tell you "when to buy"...

That said, for us EURUSD traders, choosing between 2 things isn't complicated at all, especially when compared to stock traders who love fundamentals, because they have to make a basket of carefully selected stocks by going into the details of tens and hundreds of stocks. For us it is "should I buy US-Dollars" or "should I buy "Euros"? Simple.. Therefore we mildly talk about fundamentals. 2 or 3 sentences around major news already tells us what to buy. If you love fundamentals go trade stocks. Here we do 80% 90% technicals and tiny miny fundamentals. This will never change and it is not a loss but a gain to stay focused!

I hope it answers!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,713
  • Jan 18, 2026 3:44am Jan 18, 2026 3:44am
Inserted Video
  • #220,714
  • Jan 18, 2026 6:47am Jan 18, 2026 6:47am
Nice, clear diection so far. Warching 1.1576.
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youtube.com/@pantherfxt
  • #220,715
  • Jan 18, 2026 8:46am Jan 18, 2026 8:46am
Quick Monday Plan (H1)

  1. First, I am noticing the MACD divergence forming, which hints to me that bulls could definitely try to attack and break above 1.1612.. That's what I would watch first on Monday...
  2. Main plan is to keep selling as high as it gets BUT also to stay alert in case I see that 1.1612 level is getting violated. Any candle closes above it and I would switch my bias on this timeframe to bullish.
  3. If market opens with a bearish gap or a new bearish breakout occurs right after market opening I would suggest to stay with bears. With current chart, no breakout yet, so waiting for pullback would be my starting point.

See you on Monday... Peace out...

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,716
  • Jan 18, 2026 8:55am Jan 18, 2026 8:55am
EURUSD was on the verge of pushing up toward 1.1640 after already trading above 1.1625. Then, out of nowhere, Trump hit the wires and the market sold off sharply after comments suggesting he might refrain from nominating Hassett as a potential future Fed Chair — someone perceived as dovish — even though this isn’t confirmed at all.

In my view, the market reaction was completely overdone. But that’s how political markets behave — they have short legs, and in this case the half-life of this headline is probably even shorter than previous ones on the same topic.

That said, price still did what I had already expected beforehand: it tested the 1.1600–1.1590 support zone. It briefly dipped below to around 1.1585, but importantly, it only stayed below 1.1590 for a matter of minutes. From that perspective, the zone has held — at least for now.

Next week will show how strong this support really is. If it continues to hold, EURUSD should stage a fairly strong rebound, as the market is technically heavily oversold and has plenty of room to the upside. That doesn’t mean further downside is impossible, but short- and medium-term downside momentum is already very limited. Under normal circumstances, I would consider the probability of a deeper sell-off to be quite low. However, given the current political backdrop and rising tensions around Greenland, nothing can be ruled out entirely. During the Asian session tonight (CET) and later in European trading, we should get more clarity on which direction the market ultimately wants to take. As long as price does not break and hold sustainably below 1.1590, I will stick to my longs based on the technical picture and look to add on confirmation. Good luck!
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  • #220,717
  • Jan 18, 2026 10:12am Jan 18, 2026 10:12am
Quoting Leser
EURUSD was on the verge of pushing up toward 1.1640 after already trading above 1.1625. Then, out of nowhere, Trump hit the wires and the market sold off sharply after comments suggesting he might refrain from nominating Hassett as a potential future Fed Chair — someone perceived as dovish — even though this isn’t confirmed at all. In my view, the market reaction was completely overdone. But that’s how political markets behave — they have short legs, and in this case the half-life of this headline is probably even shorter than previous ones on the...
Good luck
  • #220,718
  • Jan 18, 2026 12:43pm Jan 18, 2026 12:43pm
I think Trump made market to open lower
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  • #220,719
  • Jan 18, 2026 12:59pm Jan 18, 2026 12:59pm
Quoting Chicago-Greg
I think Trump made market to open lower {image}
could that be where the ask is currently placed? Not really sure of that, just what I saw from yahoo finance… if that could help in any way.
2000 elo sometimes...
  • #220,720
  • Jan 18, 2026 1:41pm Jan 18, 2026 1:41pm
My plan for Monday:
If Frankfurt continues the direction set by Tokyo, I’ll look to join the move with a tight stop-loss. If not, I’ll wait for London to provide clearer direction.

On a higher timeframe, my overall bias remains bullish, but due to recent events and rising uncertainty, I may reduce my activity regarding EUR/USD until February.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
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