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  • #220,661
  • Jan 15, 2026 11:59am Jan 15, 2026 11:59am
A retrospective of larger fibs/swings playing out
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while the objective is profit, the job description is risk management
  • #220,662
  • Jan 15, 2026 12:07pm Jan 15, 2026 12:07pm
Wake up bulls!
  • #220,663
  • Jan 15, 2026 12:16pm Jan 15, 2026 12:16pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote} On the contrary, there's a hole to be filled below till we hit 1.15080. There's no visible support on 4hrs till that zone. Bull will have to wait a while.
Could be, but I definitely don’t see any gap down to 1.15 that would need to be filled, at least not with my data provider. Either way, I clearly see a support zone between 1.16 and 1.1590, which raises the key question of how strong that support will be. I believe this zone will almost certainly be tested at least once more before any meaningful upside move can unfold. Judging by the current price action, that test may very well happen again today. As I’ve mentioned before, price never moves in a straight line. It always progresses in a zigzag fashion, whether up or down.

Right now, we’re moving lower, but so far there hasn’t been any meaningful counter-move. Last Monday’s spike was a one-day wonder, purely politically driven, and therefore had little chance of being sustainable, something I already pointed out earlier. Of course, there are never any guarantees, only probabilities, and that’s exactly what I trade. Based on the current probabilities, a bounce should occur on another test of the 1.16–1.1590 zone. No one can predict the future, at least I certainly can’t. Good luck.
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  • #220,664
  • Jan 15, 2026 12:28pm Jan 15, 2026 12:28pm
Quoting Leser
{quote} Could be, but I definitely don’t see any gap down to 1.15 that would need to be filled, at least not with my data provider. Either way, I clearly see a support zone between 1.16 and 1.1590, which raises the key question of how strong that support will be. I believe this zone will almost certainly be tested at least once more before any meaningful upside move can unfold. Judging by the current price action, that test may very well happen again today. As I’ve mentioned before, price never moves in a straight line. It always progresses in a...
The last zone, in my opinion, is around 1.154.
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  • #220,665
  • Jan 15, 2026 12:39pm Jan 15, 2026 12:39pm
Quoting Leser
{quote} Could be, but I definitely don’t see any gap down to 1.15 that would need to be filled, at least not with my data provider. Either way, I clearly see a support zone between 1.16 and 1.1590, which raises the key question of how strong that support will be. I believe this zone will almost certainly be tested at least once more before any meaningful upside move can unfold. Judging by the current price action, that test may very well happen again today. As I’ve mentioned before, price never moves in a straight line. It always progresses in a...
Just a little tip from my experience over the years, a price action support is a zone where there are bearish and bullish candles and then a bounce. On daily and weekly, that zone sits at 1.15131-14909.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #220,666
  • Jan 15, 2026 2:00pm Jan 15, 2026 2:00pm
Calling it a day.
Just closed the remaining position to be flat overnight.
Finished with a total of 40 pips.
Peace out.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,667
  • Jan 15, 2026 2:56pm Jan 15, 2026 2:56pm
Quoting Austyno
{quote} Just a little tip from my experience over the years, a price action support is a zone where there are bearish and bullish candles and then a bounce. On daily and weekly, that zone sits at 1.15131-14909.
i think we are on the same phase....my friend...but for me 1.1453 is the area that is not tested yet...also another observation in my experience that i could add is ... the first or second day of the week move is usually the opposite of the intended move.
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  • #220,668
  • Jan 15, 2026 4:21pm Jan 15, 2026 4:21pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Watching for price to re-enter the green and blue TL falling wedge. Currently challenging the 1.1625 zone where there is open air below that could cause a swift drop. The 61.8% fib line (my TP line) could get interesting. I expect the bulls to come in hard for one final push topside to liquidate their positions before the bears come in for earnest. The bears on the other hand may not wait for them for a hard drop from that level, I will be watching closely if level reached. {image}
Trade complete.
All happened to plan though the bounce l predicted was a little more violent than expected and put me under water for a sec (trade fully logged in following quotes back).

From here looking at a BO on either side of falling wedge TLs. I am a little biased for bulls to come back in to liquidate their positions topside up to around 61.8fib of current bear move.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #220,669
  • Jan 15, 2026 4:47pm Jan 15, 2026 4:47pm
The US dollar index rose yesterday, from a low of 99.086 to a high of 99.492, in line with lower-than-expected US jobless claims data. If this sentiment persists, EURUSD may seek further support if it breaks through yesterday's low.
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I trade at FXOpen
  • #220,670
  • Jan 16, 2026 12:58am Jan 16, 2026 12:58am
...
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  • #220,671
  • Jan 16, 2026 1:20am Jan 16, 2026 1:20am
Inserted Video
  • #220,672
  • Jan 16, 2026 1:24am Jan 16, 2026 1:24am
Just opened a short from 1.1614, which currently seems to be magnetic to me, with a stop-loss at 1.1640.

I may add to the position either on a break below 1.16 or on a retest toward ~1.1625, depending on price action.

The goal is to be flat going into the weekend
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,673
  • Jan 16, 2026 1:37am Jan 16, 2026 1:37am
Quick H4 Outlook

Today I will watch my fib 66.6% level (fib 666) if it causes a full bounce or not...

Scenario 1: Mild pullback to 1.1651 area and then back to latest bearish movement.
Scenario 2: Full bounce up and breakout from main bearish trendline. Based on angle projection: the break would happen roughly at 1.1651...

Let's see how it goes... Happy Friday folks
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,674
  • Jan 16, 2026 1:56am Jan 16, 2026 1:56am
I have a sell limit @ 1.16160
Sl 50 pips Tp open
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
  • #220,675
  • Jan 16, 2026 2:22am Jan 16, 2026 2:22am
For me, the trigger line for flip trades is the daily level at 1.1609 .
  • #220,676
  • Jan 16, 2026 2:54am Jan 16, 2026 2:54am
I think price should drop once more into the 1.16–1.1590 zone to test whether it holds. If it does, we should then see the expected upside move. How far that rally can extend remains to be seen. However, if this zone breaks to the downside, a fast move toward 1.1560–1.1540 would be likely. From a purely technical perspective, though, there isn’t much room left to the downside, which is why I consider a rebound to be the more probable scenario. That said, price could also turn higher straight away. In that case, 1.1625 would need to be taken out decisively to confirm that a short-term bottom is in place.

This are the scenarios for me today and for now it’s simply a matter of waiting to see which scenario triggers first.
  • #220,677
  • Jan 16, 2026 3:05am Jan 16, 2026 3:05am
Quoting jonasdao
Just opened a short from 1.1614, which currently seems to be magnetic to me, with a stop-loss at 1.1640. I may add to the position either on a break below 1.16 or on a retest toward ~1.1625, depending on price action. The goal is to be flat going into the weekend
Plan refinement: below 1.1600, SL moves to 1.1617. No further add-ons planned.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,678
  • Jan 16, 2026 3:30am Jan 16, 2026 3:30am
For me.. i will wait for the price to reach the 1.16300 area to look for a sell.....reason... the big downward move of the week price needs a pullback.
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  • #220,679
  • Jan 16, 2026 4:27am Jan 16, 2026 4:27am
H1: For the rest of the day (and this week) I focus on 1.1620/26 area... and I have 2 main resistance levels:

1) 1.1623 area... (based on H4)... and if that doesn't stop bulls then also:
2) 1.1651 area... (based on H4)

I stay bearish but I want to sell high.. so I keep watching... For me, nothing to trade here for now!
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,680
  • Jan 16, 2026 4:35am Jan 16, 2026 4:35am
Quoting Austyno
I have a sell limit @ 1.16160 Sl 50 pips Tp open
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Risk comes from not knowing what to do
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