What the f is wrong with this pair just consolidation
3
I don’t rule out one last attempt by the bears to push prices lower. It could very well be pushed briefly towards 1.1640 again, but it must not fall below 1.1638. That might actually be helpful to see how strongly the 1.1640 level is being defended. If we then get an hourly close back above 1.1640, that would be a very strong bullish signal. In that case, I would definitely add to my long position on another successful test. Of course, it wouldn’t be strictly necessary anymore, as the current position would already be sufficient, which is why I’m already considering adding to my long now but I’m still waiting, no rush. 
- #220,584
- Jan 14, 2026 3:18am Jan 14, 2026 3:18am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #220,585
- Jan 14, 2026 3:45am Jan 14, 2026 3:45am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #220,586
- Jan 14, 2026 4:30am Jan 14, 2026 4:30am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
I'm Aayush.j
- #220,592
- Jan 14, 2026 7:21am Jan 14, 2026 7:21am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Choppy choppy... bulls are happy 
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #220,593
- Edited 7:33am Jan 14, 2026 7:23am | Edited 7:33am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Stepping down to M5 to once again look for long opportunity... Red data is around the corner... fasten your seatbelts
*I will try to buy as close as it gets to 1.1639 (based on H4 idea)
*I will try to buy as close as it gets to 1.1639 (based on H4 idea)
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #220,595
- Jan 14, 2026 7:40am Jan 14, 2026 7:40am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,111 Posts
Come on bulls, smash that 1.1655 level for me... 
Focus only on what truly matters!
Long at 1.1659
The euro is trying to move higher, and the US data is supporting that view, meaning there is currently no real reason for further downside. Back to the charts: as expected, price dipped once more into the 1.164xx area, but crucially did not break below 1.1640, which was and still is key. The decisive question now is whether price can take out 1.1650 and then 1.1663 or not. If it does, I would expect a short squeeze toward the 1.17xx area over the next few hours and potentially into Friday. However, if it fails and price drops below 1.1630 the entire bullish sentiment would be invalidated. Then I'd switch to short.
{quote} ... That being said, it feels like the EUR/USD has been looking for a bottom yesterday and today. To be honest, feels like about to be up from here. But yesterday also felt that way and was a lotta chop WOAH It feels like if it would have moved lower on the news woulda already happened though and sort of feels like this "proved" an exhaustion of move lower - but who knows.
In the bigger picture, EURUSD is clearly in a downtrend, no doubt about that. On the daily chart this is obvious, with price trading within a descending channel (purple). But as always, markets never move in a straight line. Price action unfolds in a zigzag fashion, up and down, unless there is a major geopolitical shock on a large scale, like 9/11.
At the moment, it looks like there is plenty of upside room, with a potential target in the 1.17xx area (green box). The indicators are supporting this scenario as well. Around that zone, price would likely meet the upper boundary of the descending channel, where a renewed move to the downside could occur.
So, no certainty that this will play out, but based on current conditions, this is my preferred working scenario.
At the moment, it looks like there is plenty of upside room, with a potential target in the 1.17xx area (green box). The indicators are supporting this scenario as well. Around that zone, price would likely meet the upper boundary of the descending channel, where a renewed move to the downside could occur.
So, no certainty that this will play out, but based on current conditions, this is my preferred working scenario.
- #220,600
- Jan 14, 2026 8:37am Jan 14, 2026 8:37am
{quote} Inflation and labor market data are the most important releases. Of course, one could argue that parts of the data may favor the dollar in detail, but in the end only one thing matters: how the market interprets it and what expectations it sets going forward. Since I cannot predict how the numbers will turn out, I stick to technical analysis, which tells me almost everything I need to know. And right now, the chart is simply telling me that price wants to move higher until it doesn't. Hope that helps.
From a technical perspective, one might describe the current situation as consolidation. However, to me it resembles a calm before the storm. The 1.1650 level is still holding, but only narrowly, while the broader macro backdrop—most notably strong U.S. retail sales (+0.6%)—should exert clear opposing pressure. In this context, I find it more compelling to align with fundamental energy and geopolitical considerations.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.