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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #661
  • Aug 20, 2007 7:59am Aug 20, 2007 7:59am
Some of us are here to read and gather "nuggets of wisdom" from a successful trader; that's enough to keep me coming back AND 'make my day'.......
  • #662
  • Aug 20, 2007 8:04am Aug 20, 2007 8:04am
Quoting BeachBum
Some of us are here to read and gather "nuggets of wisdom" from a successful trader;
LOL - so true...

Jacko throw the corns here. We put the oil and boil and it's sure popcorn in the end of the day...
  • #663
  • Aug 20, 2007 10:17am Aug 20, 2007 10:17am
Quoting jacko
To everyone,

Even though this is not a live trading thread I will try to outline, in advance, what I trade.

This week, I am looking to go long on the euro again.

However, I think that I can buy them cheaper than the current price of 1.3500. (I don't think that we will see a lower low than than 1.3370...but I can see a possible small retracement)

But....I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

But I am a buyer at 1.3450.


The euro is sliding s l o w l y down.

I am waiting for it to go through 1.3450, then will buy as it is heading back up. (I don't want to catch a falling knife). I am still a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price).

Really fuzzy thinking: It may fall to 1.3510-15 then rise up. If it hits 1.3400 again I will buy it even on the way down (I will take the risk on the falling knife at that price)

(I don't believe that this market will fall below the two spike lows of 1.3359 or 1.3367...if it does then I will re-evaluate this whole market move)


PLEASE NOTE: Having said that I think the market may fall, I STILL would not short this market at the current time. I STILL believe the upside far outweighs the downside.

However, as always, I could be wwwwrong !!


.
  • #664
  • Aug 20, 2007 10:25am Aug 20, 2007 10:25am
Quoting jacko
The euro is sliding s l o w l y down.

I am waiting for it to go through 1.3450, then will buy as it is heading back up. (I don't want to catch a falling knife). I am still a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price).

Really fuzzy thinking: It may fall to 1.3510-15 then rise up. If it hits 1.3400 again I will buy it even on the way down (I will take the risk on the falling knife at that price)

(I don't believe that this market will fall below the two spike lows of 1.3359 or 1.3367...if it does then I will re-evaluate this whole market move)


PLEASE NOTE: Having said that I think the market may fall, I STILL would not short this market at the current time. I STILL believe the upside far outweighs the downside.

However, as always, I could be wwwwrong !!


.


Sorry. The above post wasn't very clear...will try again...

1. I am a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price)
2. so, when (or if) market hits around 1.3420, I will activate a stop buy at 1.3450

3. If market continues to fall to 1.3400 I will buy at 1.3400 (and then cancel stop buy at 1.3450). Trailing stop loss will initially be set at 1.3350 (which is below previous lows).


.
  • #665
  • Aug 20, 2007 4:13pm Aug 20, 2007 4:13pm
Jacko, great post from your first page. Good lesson for the beginners, but I am a little bit confused at some point of your comments.
You said:
Smart Money is the Central Banks. They actually determine the trend by sheer weight of money. (Central Banks turn the long term currency markets to accomodate the relevant government's trade requirements). Then following them are the huge hedge funds.

Can you tell us what is the difference between a smart money and retail money? If the smart money can turn the trend, why canīt we do that too and trade with them at an excactly same price where they have traded?

In my opinion the Smart money change the trend only with a fundamentally reason. When this happens, they wait for the hidden cheap price actions that most retail traders dont see it. Retail traders dont like a hidden price actions from the smart moneys because it is too difficult to follow. They like the trend because it is soo easy. Even a 5 years old boy can "predict" it LOL.

Trend Trading seems to be easy in Forex Exchange World. But it is not!
  • #666
  • Aug 21, 2007 11:06am Aug 21, 2007 11:06am
Quoting ianf0ster
A big to THANKS to you Jacko,

.................

What we really appreciate the way you are so generous with your thoughts on the market and the little details as to how you formulate your views. These are so valuable to even the more experienced of us. I know that there are a lot of people out there charging big bucks for systems or signals which barely break even over the longer term.

Thanks once again,
Ian


I give it for free.......because nobody would pay for it.


.
  • #667
  • Aug 21, 2007 11:38am Aug 21, 2007 11:38am
Quoting jacko
I give it for free.......because nobody would pay for it.
It's all about marketing. If you really wanted to, you could, and make a killing in the process.

I do appreciate your giving it for free though. Guys like you make this forum rock!
  • #668
  • Aug 21, 2007 1:30pm Aug 21, 2007 1:30pm
Jacko:

You have, no doubt, read this with a smile:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=43631

Thank you for helping all of us.
  • #669
  • Aug 21, 2007 1:32pm Aug 21, 2007 1:32pm
Hello Jako,

Interest rate differential has been the prime focus of the market for quite some time, under the current situation (Fed having cut the discount rate by 50 points) the Fed is likely to cut the interest rate by 25/50 basis points in September FMOC meeting, which obviously will weaken the dollar.

What you think about this situation?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Fed__September_Rate_Cut_1187715410756.html
(http://www.forexfactory.com/US%20Fed:%20September%20Rate%20Cut%20In%20the%20Cards%20-%20Will%20It%20Be%2025bps%20or%2050bps?)
  • #670
  • Edited 12:28am Aug 22, 2007 12:11am | Edited 12:28am
Quoting FXHolic
Hello Jako,

Interest rate differential has been the prime focus of the market for quite some time, under the current situation (Fed having cut the discount rate by 50 points) the Fed is likely to cut the interest rate by 25/50 basis points in September FMOC meeting, which obviously will weaken the dollar.

What you think about this situation?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Fed__September_Rate_Cut_1187715410756.html
(http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/US_Fed__September_Rate_Cut_1187715410756.html)

Hi FXholic,

This is my fundamental overview that colours my thinking about the long term USD market.

I definitely believe that the $USD is going to weaken over the next few months. As I have stated before, my long term target over the next 12 months is 1.4500.

I have also just read an article which mirrors my own thoughts on what I believe is the big-ass "wild card" for currencies in the near future. (I was actually wondering when someone else would see the parallels in the current situation)
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Contagion_is_the_Worry_1187720474353.html

After the trashing of the Asian economies by the US led World Bank and IMF some ten years ago, the situation has totally turned around. China and Asia have truly awesome financial muscle which they have never flexed. However, they haven't forgotten all the enormous economic devastation that the US banks did to all the Asian economies


As I said in my initial posts (see post 8), I believe that there has been a seismic shift in the "strength" of the US dollar as the worlds primary currency.
This seismic shift moved the USD from 1.2000 to 1.3800.

I now believe the next step in this seismic shift will move the US dollar from its current figure of 1.3400 to 1.4500 within 12 months

Our foolish politicians have irresponsibly squandered the enormous wealth of the US on stupid follies (Can anyone put their hand on their hearts and say that the people of Iraq are better off today than before we went in chasing "mythical" weapons of mass destruction? We have totally destroyed a country for no "justifiable" reason and sent their people back to the stone age living standards. Congratulations, George W....the rest of the world salute you.)

Also, due to the Asian meltdown, the Iraq situation, and also now the Credit meltdown caused by dishonest US bankers, the US is fast losing the trust and "good faith" of the world's political elite and the worlds major business players.

When the sh*t hits the fan, don't expect the rest of the world to want to bail us out.

The USD is going to get into trouble sooner and worse than people think.


But....I could be wwwrong !!!


.
  • #671
  • Aug 22, 2007 2:27am Aug 22, 2007 2:27am
Jacko,
have you been wrong anytime?
Thanks for sharing.

P.S.
You do not need to probe anything.
We the silent audience do not mind if you write after the fact.
We are learning, as much as possible, your thoughts flow.
Again, thanks for sharing.
  • #672
  • Aug 22, 2007 5:57am Aug 22, 2007 5:57am
Jacko
I have also just read an article which mirrors my own thoughts on what I believe is the big-ass "wild card" for currencies in the near future. (I was actually wondering when someone else would see the parallels in the current situation)
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...047 4353.html (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Contagion_is_the_Worry_1187720474353.html)

I read this article and wondered whether the action on the [US] currency is clear based on parallel "fundamentals". It seems that the only clear implication is that the Yen appreciated, which we have seen again recently. I am not convinced by the rest of the logic.

Regarding US economic fundamentals I agree with your basic analysis and that should lead to a weakening dollar, especially when you throw in other factors like sovereign wealth funds. However, perversely*, it seems the dollar will benefit during a flight to safety and global markets are definitely nervous at the moment. This seems to provide a counterbalancing force to the dollar and over the next twelve months it seems that the key is whether the "US contagion" gets worse or better. My own personal view is that this will get worse before it gets better and market psychology trumps fundamentals in the short term...

*Perverse because US sub-prime defaults are the epicentre of the contagion but US has safe haven status as the world's largest economy
  • #673
  • Aug 22, 2007 10:40am Aug 22, 2007 10:40am
Quoting rnl16616
Jacko
I have also just read an article which mirrors my own thoughts on what I believe is the big-ass "wild card" for currencies in the near future. (I was actually wondering when someone else would see the parallels in the current situation)
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...047 4353.html (http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/US_Contagion_is_the_Worry_1187720474353.html)

I read this article and wondered whether the action on the [US] currency is clear based on parallel "fundamentals". It seems that the only clear implication is that the Yen appreciated, which we have seen again recently. I am not convinced by the rest of the logic.

Regarding US economic fundamentals I agree with your basic analysis and that should lead to a weakening dollar, especially when you throw in other factors like sovereign wealth funds. However, perversely*, it seems the dollar will benefit during a flight to safety and global markets are definitely nervous at the moment. This seems to provide a counterbalancing force to the dollar and over the next twelve months it seems that the key is whether the "US contagion" gets worse or better. My own personal view is that this will get worse before it gets better and market psychology trumps fundamentals in the short term...

*Perverse because US sub-prime defaults are the epicentre of the contagion but US has safe haven status as the world's largest economy
Fundamentals give the big picture about the direction of the currency in long term. Me as an currency investor, I dont care about the fundamentals. I "feel good" only when the fundamentals meets my trading system. Thatīs all.

I think the EURUSD will go up too, because the EU might raise interest rates and the US might lower their rates in a good healthy economie. But if the credit crisis still continue in the EU zone, then the EURUSD will fall again.
  • #674
  • Aug 22, 2007 1:38pm Aug 22, 2007 1:38pm
Hi everybody , below is the good link to view the rate cut debate .
http://forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=43789.

Regards
  • #675
  • Aug 22, 2007 2:35pm Aug 22, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting vinnie99
Me as an currency investor, I dont care about the fundamentals. I "feel good" only when the fundamentals meets my trading system. Thatīs all.

I think the EURUSD will go up too, because the EU might raise interest rates and the US might lower their rates in a good healthy economie. But if the credit crisis still continue in the EU zone, then the EURUSD will fall again.
Well actually, if you were a currency investor, you'd care primarily about fundamentals, and little about swings up and down. Maybe as a short-term currency trader, you don't care. But there are really no investors on this site--just traders like us :-)

And I'm no fundamental expert, but in a "good healthy economy," interest rates have a tendency to be raised, not lowered. Rates are lowered in part to stimulate spending in a stagnant economy.
  • #676
  • Aug 22, 2007 4:59pm Aug 22, 2007 4:59pm
Here is my long EUR. I would of never considered this trade before I read this Journal. I would of been trying to trade against the trend and short. Which I did do previously for a few hundred pips, but then I would be looking for another short position when obviously I should of been going long. Thanks for getting things straight in my pea sized brain of mine.

Ill probably continue to trade against the trend if I think there will be what I considered a decent move, but I will defiantly be more aware of the trend and not try to trade against it too often

This trade is currently +50 so stop has been moved to Break even

And my bad for not getting in at 1.35 I was off a few pips :/
Attached Image
  • #677
  • Aug 22, 2007 5:26pm Aug 22, 2007 5:26pm
Quoting jacko
Sorry. The above post wasn't very clear...will try again...

1. I am a buyer at 1.3450 (from a lower price)
2. so, when (or if) market hits around 1.3420, I will activate a stop buy at 1.3450

3. If market continues to fall to 1.3400 I will buy at 1.3400 (and then cancel stop buy at 1.3450). Trailing stop loss will initially be set at 1.3350 (which is below previous lows).
It's funny, it almost seemed like the market read your plan and acted against it, trading down to 1.3450 but never below it (to active the buy stop above). What's your strategy now that we've rallied?
  • #678
  • Aug 22, 2007 5:32pm Aug 22, 2007 5:32pm
Quoting JoshDance
Well actually, if you were a currency investor, you'd care primarily about fundamentals, and little about swings up and down. Maybe as a short-term currency trader, you don't care. But there are really no investors on this site--just traders like us :-)

And I'm no fundamental expert, but in a "good healthy economy," interest rates have a tendency to be raised, not lowered. Rates are lowered in part to stimulate spending in a stagnant economy.
No you are wrong. I care about great swings up and down, because in this market like Forex you cannot expect what could happen next. U cannot predict the future if know a lot about the fundamentals. Everyone trade their own ways. They have their own "stoploss and limit orders" rules. This could explain why the market moves like a "Trend".

I called myself as an currency investor (in real I am a swing trader LOL) because i dont trade much and I analyzed the market 4 hours a week. No more, no less. I analyze the price actions only.

I mean a "good healthy economy" is the economy that are running according the rules. If this happens, you can do a little predict the market what could happens next. But even this, the price actions will tell you only when to buy and where to buy.

  • #679
  • Aug 22, 2007 6:04pm Aug 22, 2007 6:04pm
Quoting Trader KGB
It's funny, it almost seemed like the market read your plan and acted against it, trading down to 1.3450 but never below it (to active the buy stop above). What's your strategy now that we've rallied?
Hmm.. I'm trying to read Jacko's mind... Wish I could download his experience and intuition into my brain like in the matrix...

Now that 1.3500 area has shown to act as resistance for two days, I wonder if Jacko will wait until the price drops below 1.3550 to around 1.3525 and then bracket price with orders at 1.3500 and 1.3550. This would assume:

1) - 1.3500 is now decent support and will bounce fairly quickly if price reaches this area
2) - 1.3550 would be good on the second touch on the way back up
3) - When either of these orders gets filled then he cancels the other

Now... Let's see how wrong I am

Johnny
  • #680
  • Aug 22, 2007 9:23pm Aug 22, 2007 9:23pm
Quoting vinnie99
No you are wrong. I care about great swings up and down, because in this market like Forex you cannot expect what could happen next. U cannot predict the future if know a lot about the fundamentals. Everyone trade their own ways. They have their own "stoploss and limit orders" rules. This could explain why the market moves like a "Trend".

I called myself as an currency investor (in real I am a swing trader LOL) because i dont trade much and I analyzed the market 4 hours a week. No more, no less. I analyze the price actions only.

I mean a "good healthy economy" is the economy that are running according the rules. If this happens, you can do a little predict the market what could happens next. But even this, the price actions will tell you only when to buy and where to buy.

Not that any of that makes much sense (economy is "running according to the rules" ... ) , but.. okay. :-)
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