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EURUSD only

  • #220,441
  • Jan 9, 2026 4:16pm Jan 9, 2026 4:16pm
Quoting purdoy81
{quote} {image}
Hi Purdoy
Thank you!
Exactly... It does look like a clean structure. Very legit. Thank you for this comment.
Thats exactly what I mean: When I get into much of geopolitics - I get wicked ideas, like to long when it's clearly bearish..
  • #220,442
  • Jan 9, 2026 5:02pm Jan 9, 2026 5:02pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
Any H1 candle closes above 1.1650 and I switch to buying... until then only selling!
you are a wonderful friend. Thanks to your insights.
  • #220,443
  • Edited 3:46am Jan 10, 2026 2:58am | Edited 3:46am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} Common sense alone suggests that macroeconomic factors set the framework within which the chart operates. If one follows the argument through to its logical conclusion, it would otherwise make no difference whether an NFP release comes in far off expectations or whether the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Anyone who, in such situations, insists on relying exclusively on technical analysis will discover the limits of that approach very quickly — and usually painfully. Technical analysis is a valuable tool for structure and timing, but it does...
With the message now pinned by Donald Trump, I am genuinely curious to see how the market will behave on Monday.

Signaling a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10% is not a marginal comment — it is a direct intervention into consumer credit pricing and, by extension, into the monetary transmission mechanism. Whether one agrees with it politically or not, it is macro-relevant.

For context: current average credit card APRs in the US are around 22–23%, with many cards — including those issued by major banks — charging 20–30% or more, depending on credit quality. A statutory cap at 10% would therefore not affect a narrow segment of the market, but would materially impact the entire consumer credit landscape, including large incumbents.

I am particularly interested to see how purely technical traders will navigate this environment. This is exactly the type of situation where macro sets the framework and technicals have to adapt.

For my part, I will most likely position aggressively long EUR/USD, as I expect this announcement to weigh on the USD via expectations around policy interference, real rates, and longer-term credibility.

Markets will decide — but dismissing this as “just noise” would, in my view, be a mistake.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,444
  • Jan 10, 2026 4:33am Jan 10, 2026 4:33am
D1: As simple as it gets... I am marking 1.16375 as Monday resistance.. While below, only selling!

If I see H1 and H4 candles closing above 1.16375, I might switch to buying. Intraday on Monday will tell more.

My 2 cents... Keep enjoying your weekends..
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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,445
  • Jan 10, 2026 6:40am Jan 10, 2026 6:40am
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} Common sense alone suggests that macroeconomic factors set the framework within which the chart operates. If one follows the argument through to its logical conclusion, it would otherwise make no difference whether an NFP release comes in far off expectations or whether the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. Anyone who, in such situations, insists on relying exclusively on technical analysis will discover the limits of that approach very quickly — and usually painfully. Technical analysis is a valuable tool for structure and timing, but it does...
Hi, technical analysis isn't guess work. It is about understanding order flow- understanding where the smart money is entering and exiting the market. I am not a market maker but rather a sheep who jumps on the "money's" coattails.

That said I fully respect fundies and I do have have a peripheral view of fundamentals. Personally however, there are always too many unseen elements in the news... the same can be said of TA too which is what makes trading very difficult.


Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} I'm looking at the falling TL for the completion of this correction. It may bounce in this zone for a while and may take some time to hit my TP level. Have a good weekend. {image}
If you follow my current trade back, you will notice I have mentioned area's of interest- they signify supply and demand zones that are visually represented in the charts.
Following TA prior a news release can sometimes feel like precognition but it is simply following smart money that knows things that I don't.
Don't get me wrong this is no holy grail system but just hard work that holds my winning trades above 50% W/L ratio (often with a 2:1 ratio).

Just thought I'd put this in so newbie technical traders don't lose heart, study hard there are answers out there.

Sorry Ata, don't mean to ramble on the EU thread but hey it's sat night and if any1 is reading this they need to get a life.. heh kidding (putting my whiskey glass away now).
As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #220,446
  • Edited 9:20am Jan 10, 2026 7:04am | Edited 9:20am
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hi, technical analysis isn't guess work. It is about understanding order flow- understanding where the smart money is entering and exiting the market. I am not a market maker but rather a sheep who jumps on the "money's" coattails. That said I fully respect fundies and I do have have a peripheral view of fundamentals. Personally however, there are always too many unseen elements in the news... the same can be said of TA too which is what makes trading very difficult. {quote} If you follow my current trade back, you will notice I have mentioned...
I didn’t mean to discourage newer technical traders. My intention was simply to put things into perspective.

We’ll see how the market digests Trump’s post on Monday. Until then — the Grey Goose is calling.


@JennyJet: I hadn't seen your second post before my post about Trump. Hope that clarifies.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
  • #220,447
  • Jan 10, 2026 10:53am Jan 10, 2026 10:53am
Alex Geuta (FOREX) is awesome at Elliott wave analysis. EURUSD H4/Day/Week. What do you think?
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  • #220,448
  • Jan 10, 2026 2:05pm Jan 10, 2026 2:05pm
Quoting Matts Micro
{quote} Hi, technical analysis isn't guess work. It is about understanding order flow- understanding where the smart money is entering and exiting the market. I am not a market maker but rather a sheep who jumps on the "money's" coattails. That said I fully respect fundies and I do have have a peripheral view of fundamentals. Personally however, there are always too many unseen elements in the news... the same can be said of TA too which is what makes trading very difficult. {quote} If you follow my current trade back, you will notice I have mentioned...
I am really happy I triggered the dinosaurs of trading with my little innocent girly market understanding. And yes, thank you Moderator to let us chat a little bit. We still chat about EUR/USD, current course.
Trading is not guessing, I never said that. But credit card interest on Moday, or d*** sentence of Maduro for dr*g traff***g, or whatever it is that is supposed to "happen" will not cancell the fact that chart itself clearly shows a shirt term bullish bias to form so called "shoulder" to this micro mountain...
I know, I know, it imight not be a "shoulder" and please, correct me! Please tell me what you think about this formation of TA!

I dont mean to offend anybody here. I respect all the intelligent narrative on economical politics.
All I was trying to say is: Chart does have logical structure. The news on Monday can be about extraterrestrials in pentagon. The chart will pick up bullish temporarly..

If I offended anyone - I apologise.
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  • #220,449
  • Jan 10, 2026 2:54pm Jan 10, 2026 2:54pm
Quoting jonasdao
{quote} With the message now pinned by Donald Trump, I am genuinely curious to see how the market will behave on Monday. Signaling a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10% is not a marginal comment — it is a direct intervention into consumer credit pricing and, by extension, into the monetary transmission mechanism. Whether one agrees with it politically or not, it is macro-relevant. For context: current average credit card APRs in the US are around 22–23%, with many cards — including those issued by major banks — charging 20–30% or more,...
The "noise" strictly is noise FOR ME.
I survived Soviet Union breakdown as a kid, "building independence in Ukraine" and finally the war. I am done taking this s***. It is all noise for me ever since.
So I figured: every morning I will check Dollar index, USD/JPY, few other charts to see how USD is doing any given day. For the order flow: it is obvious that if you trade Asian session - they are only doing clearence for NY and preparing the books for London. The main flow is London session from 9.30 till noon. Then NY is a trickster... Can pick the trend up from London, but a lot of the times - tricks it and goes the opposite direction.

I do like to study hard. Thank your for support guys.

I just can't take much of b***t anymore, so Techical Analysis is a pure comfort for me now.
Again thank you for tolerating me these couple of days - I will switch to scalping insted of swing trade.
  • #220,450
  • Jan 11, 2026 4:09am Jan 11, 2026 4:09am
It's the weekend and I therefore let some off-topic comments slip but not that I am fond of...

Just make sure to return back to strict EURUSD talk on Monday...

Enjoy your weekends.. Peace
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #220,451
  • Jan 11, 2026 4:17am Jan 11, 2026 4:17am
Inserted Video
  • #220,452
  • Jan 11, 2026 9:06am Jan 11, 2026 9:06am
My expectations for the coming days.
The DXY is being mounted on 1D and H4.
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  • #220,453
  • Jan 11, 2026 5:22pm Jan 11, 2026 5:22pm
Last Friday's NFP led to mixed movements in the EURUSD pair, although the US dollar index remained bullish despite a slight dip. There are no crucial news releases scheduled today, and expected price movements to follow technical trends.
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I trade at FXOpen
  • #220,454
  • Jan 11, 2026 5:52pm Jan 11, 2026 5:52pm
No news...... best time to manipulate the market.........just waiting for the buy signal......
  • #220,455
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:05pm Jan 11, 2026 6:05pm
Quoting purdoy81
No news...... best time to manipulate the market.........just waiting for the buy signal......
buyers starting to test the market ....
  • #220,456
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:06pm Jan 11, 2026 6:06pm
Quoting purdoy81
{quote} buyers starting to test the market ....
here they are .....
  • #220,457
  • Jan 11, 2026 6:07pm Jan 11, 2026 6:07pm
Quoting purdoy81
{quote} here they are .....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #220,458
  • Jan 11, 2026 7:54pm Jan 11, 2026 7:54pm
Imo I think it is risky buying at these levels. I have multiple charts that suggest the bears are coming in for the long (or short) haul.

The weekly has a little malaligned H&S though still a good indication. The 3 candles I have sort of circled are for me a very good signal that the current bull trend is ending.

As always these are just my thoughts but be sure to apply your own analysis.

Cheers.
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As the lights go by so too do the shadows move
  • #220,459
  • Jan 11, 2026 7:56pm Jan 11, 2026 7:56pm
Pump and dump?
  • #220,460
  • Jan 11, 2026 8:37pm Jan 11, 2026 8:37pm
I have a sell limit at 1.16645
Sl 50 pips and tp @ 1.16130

Reason being that price wants to retest weekly pivot after almost hitting weekly 3rd support last week which should act as resistance and the first sell signal for the week.
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
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