EURUSD only

Daily perspective 1.1659 With price below bears have the upper hand

H4 flip lvl 1.1651

H4: still no breakout.... resistance sitting around 1.1653/59 area... Waiting for London opening...

Happy Friday folks

I’m holding the long and may look to add, potentially around the 1.1635 area, where the daily 200-MA is located. The rationale is that price has already moved into oversold territory on both the short- and medium-term timeframes and was even heavily oversold in parts yesterday. This opens the door for the first bullish divergences to form, which would imply that downside potential is likely limited for the time being. That’s my working assumption, and we’ll see how it plays out.
In any case, I’d expect a rebound first before the market could attempt to move lower again.

Until price is below 1.1651 we are in strong bearish zone. I expect new Lower Low.

All the time, it's just bull traps. The only thing left to do is to sell every rally and join the strong downward momentum.

Looks like the market might react mainly around the red folder news.
EUR feels stuck in a bit of a dead zone right now.
On 1D, 4H, and 1H, structure is clearly bearish, and price is sitting near a strong support area. There's a good chance of a liquidity sweep of early buyers before any real move happens.
Overall bias is still bearish, but at the same time, if price wants to move higher, it needs clear confirmation first. Without that confirmation, I'm staying out.
For now, this is a no-trade zone for me. Patience over prediction.
Different traders, different plans.

USD-bullish jobs data at 8:30am EST could result in a bearish weekly candle close, however the weekly chart has significant support around 1.1500. But here's the problem for technical traders: the idea that "the market assimilates all data in real time and so all you need to pay attention to are the technicals" dangerously ignores that new facts on the ground *make* new technical developments happen. The fundamentals literally bend, kink, and break the charts, at a time and place of their choosing. And we are fraught with geopolitical event risk going into this weekend.

One hour to go. After staying on the sidelines for the past two days, I’m quite curious to see the upcoming numbers and the market reaction.
If the labour market shows clear signs of cooling, I’m ready to go aggressively long right away. Otherwise, I’ll wait for the market reaction and decide later.

NFP DAY!!! Good luck to ALL!!!!!

When there are several upcoming USD red-folder events, I typically rank their impact as follows: NFP > Average Hourly Earnings > Unemployment Rate.
Consumer sentiment and UoM inflation expectations tend to act more as secondary drivers.
Rather than trading the initial spike, I prefer to stay cautious during the release window and wait for structure and confirmation once volatility has subsided.
For me, risk management matters more than trying to predict direction.

Once again, it’s one of those interesting days where the technical picture and the fundamental backdrop may not align. From a technical standpoint, the dollar is clearly overbought, at least short term, in parts even heavily overbought. Fundamentally, however, the picture could suggest that the US economy is in much better shape than the eurozone, which would naturally support the dollar.

The key question, though, is what the market will actually do with this setup. Normally, I focus almost exclusively on the charts; fundamentals rarely concern me much, as everything ultimately gets reflected in price action and can be read there. Today is one of those rare days where I do pay some attention to the fundamentals even though I don’t particularly like doing so.

That leaves me with essentially one question: how far will EURUSD still drop before the market resolves the technically very likely extreme oversold condition by turning higher? Will that happen already around 1.1630, or at 1.1615, or 1.1600, or perhaps not until 1.1570, etc.? Or will price turn higher straight away, regardless of how strong the data may be, because it’s already priced in?

I don’t know but the market will show it, and that’s all that matters. I’m prepared to close my current long position from 1.1662 at a loss if the picture starts to deteriorate. In any case, I won’t react immediately after the release, as that would likely lead to erratic price swings. Things need to settle first before making any informed decisions. Good luck.

I think NFP data will pump this up... I am waiting on sidelines to catch best moment to buy deep... No rush!

Real decision comes at 1.1655.... Watch that level!

I expect EURUSD to fall at the release of the NFP Data and will enter a short position if there is confirmation

I could jump in long at 1.1634... Let's see...

And there we are - anemic job creation but a (USD-bullish) downtick in the thing the Fed pays primary attention to - U3. Basically a continuation of the story that Powell has been narrating as not giving good reason for rapid cuts. The machines will be having their usual digital food fight for the next few minutes/hours. Then the humans can venture near the table for a bite to eat.

Moving stop immediately to break even.. zero risk...

aaaand took profit at 1.1651.... all good... was nice quick catch...

After this NFP numbers I'll keep my long from 1.1662 and looking to add up.

Now will wait on sidelines for a while, and switch back to selling based on H1... 1.1652 is key!