Short now on 1,16691 with TP 1 1,16587, TP 2 1,16473
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- #220,142
- Edited 7:44am Jan 5, 2026 7:28am | Edited 7:44am
Price has now reached the support zone, and this is where we’ll see whether it holds or whether we drop one level lower. Given the currently oversold conditions, this area should hold and trigger a bounce to the upside to allow the market to reset. That said, price could also simply continue to bleed lower, in that case, 1.1638 would come into play. At the latest around that level, I would expect a more meaningful upside reaction. For now, however, it’s all about observing how 1.1660 is defended. If this level holds multiple times over the next couple of hours, I’ll go long. 
If 1.1659 is supposed to be the provisional low, we still need confirmation. Either the 1.1660 zone gets retested and successfully defended, or price needs to squeeze straight back above 1.17. I’d clearly prefer the former, as it would be the more sustainable setup. One-off tests like the current one are rather rare anyway. But we'll see what market has in mind.
- #220,149
- Jan 5, 2026 8:43am Jan 5, 2026 8:43am
If 1.1659 is supposed to be the provisional low, we still need confirmation. Either the 1.1660 zone gets retested and successfully defended, or price needs to squeeze straight back above 1.17. I’d clearly prefer the former, as it would be the more sustainable setup. One-off tests like the current one are rather rare anyway. But we'll see what market has in mind.
However, my two cents on why a single test might already be sufficient:
Since the last Fed rate cut, price has been moving upward from that area.
In addition, the recent developments in South America could further undermine trust in the US dollar as a reserve currency. Therefore, I see it as at least possible that we only had a one-time test.
When the trumpet sounds, you won't be able to hear the techno anymore.
- #220,150
- Jan 5, 2026 8:55am Jan 5, 2026 8:55am
- Joined Oct 2018 | Status: Risk comes from not knowing what to | 2,233 Posts
Risk comes from not knowing what to do
- #220,156
- Jan 5, 2026 10:32am Jan 5, 2026 10:32am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,096 Posts
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #220,160
- Jan 5, 2026 11:24am Jan 5, 2026 11:24am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,096 Posts
H4: So far, Asian bears did a good job... and momentum is also intact... I marked ~1.1718 area as my nearest resistance... and I want to keep selling while H1 and H4 candles open below! Happy new trading week folks{image}
Stepping down to M5, to look for short opportunity...
Focus only on what truly matters!