- #220,104
- Jan 3, 2026 9:31pm Jan 3, 2026 9:31pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2025 | 2,637 Posts
A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
First of all, wishing everyone a Happy New Year and successful trades.
Last week, EURUSD failed to close below 1.1720 on a daily basis, despite strong attempts to push it lower. That is an initial positive signal, though not yet confirmed. Still, it shows that the bears lacked the strength to drive price further down, even though technically and fundamentally the odds were largely in their favor. Since the bears failed to follow through, the market is showing an underlying willingness to move higher although it remains to be seen whether that will actually materialize.
For now, I’m cautious when it comes to shorting, although short-term scalps are still fine. I have no idea what price will ultimately do; at the moment, the indicators are neutral, and on the higher timeframes they are also mostly neutral again, with some still slightly overbought. That implies the path of least resistance could be to the upside, as there is once again more room to move.
However, and this is a big “however”, what happened in Venezuela over the weekend leaves many open questions. Will it have an impact or not? And if so, what kind?
From my experience, such events usually have only a short-lived effect, but they shouldn’t be ignored entirely. That said, I believe this will hardly affect EURUSD and that price will ultimately trade in a more “normal” manner.
With the first full trading week of the new year starting tomorrow, it should be far more meaningful than the last two shortened holiday weeks. Good luck.
Last week, EURUSD failed to close below 1.1720 on a daily basis, despite strong attempts to push it lower. That is an initial positive signal, though not yet confirmed. Still, it shows that the bears lacked the strength to drive price further down, even though technically and fundamentally the odds were largely in their favor. Since the bears failed to follow through, the market is showing an underlying willingness to move higher although it remains to be seen whether that will actually materialize.
For now, I’m cautious when it comes to shorting, although short-term scalps are still fine. I have no idea what price will ultimately do; at the moment, the indicators are neutral, and on the higher timeframes they are also mostly neutral again, with some still slightly overbought. That implies the path of least resistance could be to the upside, as there is once again more room to move.
However, and this is a big “however”, what happened in Venezuela over the weekend leaves many open questions. Will it have an impact or not? And if so, what kind?
From my experience, such events usually have only a short-lived effect, but they shouldn’t be ignored entirely. That said, I believe this will hardly affect EURUSD and that price will ultimately trade in a more “normal” manner.With the first full trading week of the new year starting tomorrow, it should be far more meaningful than the last two shortened holiday weeks. Good luck.
Well, tomorrow will be a very interesting day thanks to previous events, but I want to remind you that the price has its own trajectory; the news only delays or accelerates the price movement. Something like what happened in Venezuela was to be expected; it was only a matter of time... Now let's focus on the coming week. The price is around 1.17188, where the bullish support on H4 remains unmitigated, but let's see how the market starts, whether above or below. If the opening price is lower but strengthens upwards, I will take it as a possible buy...
- #220,108
- Jan 4, 2026 6:25am Jan 4, 2026 6:25am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2025 | 2,637 Posts
Well, tomorrow will be a very interesting day thanks to previous events, but I want to remind you that the price has its own trajectory; the news only delays or accelerates the price movement. Something like what happened in Venezuela was to be expected; it was only a matter of time... Now let's focus on the coming week. The price is around 1.17188, where the bullish support on H4 remains unmitigated, but let's see how the market starts, whether above or below. If the opening price is lower but strengthens upwards, I will take it as a possible buy...
A red weekly candle can still move green until Wedesday, before a catalyst event or news slams it down.
Manipulation(opposing order flow to run stops), consolidation(accumulation of longs/shorts) and expansion(moving toward intended target)
According to ICT, which I have studied(and confirmed through studying charts) and the only one who write/talk sense on this matter, these are the three models the market makers use - You never know which mode will be triggered during a high impact news events, obviously you can guess - but then the skills are removed and we start going into the gambling section.
I honestly still have some kind of PTSD from my younger days, when I traded crypto in 2016, therefor I am way more cautious than most traders, because I have been manipulated and hurt way too many times, its one of the reasons I stopped trading crypto, almost 8 years ago
- a crypto cycle(4 years) is like 15 years in the legacy market
, you start getting gray here after the first bear market! A fool prays for an easier road, a wise man prays for stronger legs
- #220,109
- Jan 4, 2026 6:41am Jan 4, 2026 6:41am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,335 Posts
Quick H1 Outlook for Monday
Market could open with a gap.. but avoiding that possibility for now, these are my thoughts with current picture in mind:
Market could open with a gap.. but avoiding that possibility for now, these are my thoughts with current picture in mind:
- Sellers are grinding lower inside a channel. We are at the lower half nearing the lower edge of it.
- Bears must break below 1.1709 first to open path for deeper levels... a bounce up seems to be more likely!
- Bulls must first break above nearest resistance: 1.1727.. While candles open below it, I stay away from buying! Even trying to buy the lower edge of channel feels too risky. Therefore I stick to selling for now!
- Overall: while candles open inside this big channel, market is moving sideways on some bigger timeframe and that's why we are facing this choppy zigzag movement lately. Let's hope it gets better once markets get rid of this lazy holiday mode. Patience!
Anyway, that's my two cents.. Happy Sunday folks 
Focus only on what truly matters!
{quote} Well, I bought at 1.16860. I didn't have an automatic order placed. I hardly ever use them, but anyway, I hope you bought too! Now I'll wait two hours to continue buying more or close the order I have. {image}
- #220,120
- Edited 10:34pm Jan 4, 2026 9:32pm | Edited 10:34pm
{quote} triggered at 1.16839
1.16640 I will buy again
UPDATE: 1.16730 is good resistance for bears, I will start buying at this point
Don't fear risk; fear your ignorance.