EURUSD only

In the current state of the German economy, at this price German exports will cease to exist.

I'm long on the support in the smaller square H1 chart...

Based on fundamentals and principle logic, Euro should at max be at parity with USD, if not lower, however currencies are manipulated to achieve certain objectives, in the case of USD, due to being a reserve currency of the world,

Consider the natural resources North America(excluding canada) have vs EU, the whole continent, even population wise, not a big gap.

Biggest oil exporter in the world - USA
Biggest natural gas producer(LNG) USA
Biggest agriculture producer - USA

Before the 80s, a huge industrial base was in USA as well, before that got shipped out, for the simple reason of keeping the USD as reserve currency of the world.

After Nord stream was bombed, cheap natural gas is not available for EU industries anymore, even renewable energy, steel and panels for renewable construction is imported, ironically from China, boosted by cheap Russian natural gas. If somehow, by a miracle, USA manages to stop its current wars and not start new ones, the Euro against the USD will show its true face. currently LNG is being imported from USA at 4x the price of piped Russian gas, pre-Ukraine war. Qatar is offsetting USA burden of energy provider to EU mediterrean countries, by shipping its own LNG, however that shipping route is navigating through vulnerable choke points, like Bab-El-Mandeb in the red sea and the Sueze Canal crossing into the mediterrean, with transit fees and insurance spiking due to wars, this is not exactly helping the situation. Europe will manage to feed its people, but thats it, thus the facade of keeping a strong Euro will diminish.

I put emphasis on industrial production, energy resources, geopolitical situation/strategy and economic strategy.

The British pound is backed by overseas colonies rich in natural resources, in the Indian ocean, Latin America, while EU(france) is getting kicked out of its former colonies in Africa.

If you compare price action, between gbp/usd vs eur/usd you will notice the gbp pair is much more fluid and consistent the past 2-3 years, while the euro pair is erratic, almost a "search & destroy" mode, I have no proof this is all connected to trading, however after the 2020 scam and the Ukraine war, I noticed fundamentals play big role, compared to the 2014-2020 period which were relatively "quite" and no big events. But these things take time to manifest, there is luckily no black-swan events, beside the 2020 scam. As a day trader, you just hope there nothing happening while you have an open position. I also worry about my EU based broker, but this seems safer then trusting a US based broker, as I trust the EU regulators/bureaucrats more then US.

Personally I trade Euro/usd and GBP/USD pairs due to fitting into my time zone, if I would trade aussie or the yen, I would need to put emphasis on the asian session, which is middle of the night for me.

Technical view
Price is coiling on M15 between 1.1738 to 1.1755 with repeated rejection near 1.1760 to 1.1766. Bands are tight and the mid-band is sloping gently up, which often precedes an expansion. Higher-timeframe momentum reads are still supportive on M30 to H4, while M15 is range-bound. That leaves two clear levels to trade around.
Primary plan: continuation long
• Confirmation is an M15 close above 1.1758 to 1.1760.
• Entry on the retest of 1.1758.
• Invalidation 1.1747.
• Targets 1.1766 first, then 1.1778 and 1.1790 if momentum expands.
• Trail under each new M15 higher low once price clears 1.1766.
Alternate plan: scalp fade of the range top
• Only if M15 prints a clear bearish rejection at 1.1748 to 1.1752.
• Invalidation 1.1769.
• Targets 1.1739 first, then 1.1732.
• This is countertrend and should be sized small.
Key levels
Support 1.1732 to 1.1740.
Resistance 1.1760 to 1.1770, then 1.1790.
Fundamental context
Near-term direction still pivots on US yields and risk sentiment. A rise in front-end Treasury yields or a risk-off tone tends to support the dollar and cap rallies in this zone. Softer yields and a risk-on tone usually favor upside continuation toward 1.1780 to 1.1790. For catalysts, watch US data prints such as CPI, PCE, ISM and weekly claims, along with Fed-speak for any pushback on easing expectations. On the euro side, Eurozone CPI and PMIs are the main drivers; weaker growth signals or more dovish ECB rhetoric are a headwind for EUR, while upside surprises can help sustain a break above 1.1760.
Trade management
Keep risk per attempt small. Take only one side at a time. If the market stays trapped between 1.1738 and 1.1755, wait for a clear M15 close outside the box before engaging.
Not financial advice. Trade your plan and manage risk.

In 1 hour and 20 minutes, this will start moving in one direction. This is my plan, well, my plans, but only focused on my current bearish sentiment, nothing that can go both ways. The price is currently below 1.17500, which broke the bullish resistance. I was expecting a sideways price, but that didn't happen, so I'm opting for a deep pullback. Let's see, my plans are as follows: as I mentioned, in about 1 hour and 20 minutes, the price will start to move. If the price moves towards 1.17300, I will opt to make a purchase only if the price continues to fall without stopping. I will keep you informed if I make the purchase. Now, if I make the purchase, it will be a micro-purchase, since at 1.1760/50 I expect the price to reverse and continue falling in the long term. I want to clarify that this is my plan A, as I have attached in my images. Now, plan B is that if it goes up instead of down, I will focus solely on selling and only selling, without making any purchases. I wish you luck, although you don't need it!

see this m30 if it helps.

Partials at 1.17333 +70 pips will wait for london now

Thank you!

Additionally, EUR has not just its congenital defects dating back to its inception (when it indeed traded below parity for >2 years), but also the taint from its "distinction" of having imposed haircuts on bank depositors during the European debt crisis. While it's the only currency that could really be entertained as a USD global trade alternative, due to liquidity issues for everything else (except JPY, which is a no-go reserve currency due to chronically high gov't debt), displacing USD does not seem likely.

The long-term trend in EURUSD, since the '08 GFC, is down. Prior to that crisis, EUR/USD started the biggest run of its life around the time that USA ran up a huge debt for the Iraq campaign. It remains to be seen how the current debt reduction talk in the USA pans out, and given the EUR debt-hiding that was exposed during Europe's crisis, it's a fair question to ask whether that problem got solved or if its practitioners just got better at concealment.

As I mentioned, I would let you know whether or not I would buy. Well, my range tells me I shouldn't buy, so I'll focus on continuing to sell, and that's what I'll do. See you at 1.17000. Sell from 1.17433 and above.

My Final D1 Outlook for 2025

1. Bears were more eager to break below most recent support areas... and so they did... Intraday wise we are bearish now!
2. Therefore, based on H1, if I was trading, I would try to sell bullish spikes and attacks toward ~1.1778, which is my main resistance level for today! But I am in holiday mode and only watch the flow!
3. For bears, there is the dashed line area on chart, that still could act as support, currently around ~1.1731, which you must also watch if you are a seller, because if that area is the median line on some bigger timeframe channel, then a close below the median line could trigger sudden bull power! Beware of ~1.1731 area! It could sucker-punch traders.
4. Long story short: staying a seller while below ~1.1778 is better for now. The new bearish mission is to break below 1.1731.

My two cents

Yes, but only if my "Bearish Gartley" theory on W1 plays out... Bulls are still able to ram the doors of 1.1840... Nothing for sure yet if we will go lower or not, but the "Bearish Gartley" is still valid. That's why I mentioned "June" 2026 for 1.30xx... Because yes, a strong drop can happen first.. not a guarantee but it is possible.

The price reacted below my range, which leads me to believe that it could reach 1.17500 and then fall again.
Update: 1.17381/390 is the closest buying resistance.

Unbelievable, TP 1.17297 and bounce up. Thanks to the market!

Limit placed 1:2 trade

Inserted Video

Euro Fundamentals: US exporters are enjoying a weak dollar and Trump/bessent will make sure it remains weak. They don't care about the long term effects of dollar decline as they will bow out after three years.

TP 3 1,17130?
A New Year's miracle?
Bin Glueck- oder Pechvogel?

technical: The orderflow is Bullish on D1 and bearish on H1. I will go with the order flow as long as it works. 1.166 is potential buy zone. I believe Euro will hit 1.19