EURUSD only

sl hit?

Just a dead cat bounce in my opinion. Especially with this thin market, there's just no real bull power enough to overcome the current bearish retracement until at most 1.1745-ish.

Nice bearish thrust... All bears can finally have a relief.. I am too switching to bearish...

On H4: 1.1777 is my potential resistance now...

I opened a second short position at 1.17760 with TP 1 at 1.17670 and another possible TP 2 at 1.17579 four hours ago. However, there will probably be no bearish movement down to TP 3 today. TP 3 is at 1.17489.
Bingo! The wait paid off. But it was close. Today, I climbed and fell twice from the same position to the same position, and even gained momentum up to TP 2. I am satisfied with today.

The lines below are taken from a German-language interview published by DER SPIEGEL (Spiegel.de) on 23 December 2025 (issue DER SPIEGEL 1/2026) with economist Daron Acemoğlu (MIT; Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences 2024). The interview discusses AI, U.S. policy, and institutional stability; the excerpts selected here are only the parts where Acemoğlu explicitly mentions confidence in the U.S. dollar.

USD-relevant excerpts (partial, translated from German)
Acemoğlu argues that U.S. policy is weakening key institutions and thereby harming confidence in U.S. markets and the dollar:
He is “destroying the institutions” that enable innovation and debt-financed stabilization.
With attacks on “the central bank and the securities regulator,” he is damaging “trust in the financial center—above all in the U.S. dollar as a reserve and leading currency.”
On a longer time horizon, he links this institutional weakening to higher crisis vulnerability:
If this course is not corrected quickly, the economy could weaken “over the next five to ten years,” possibly gradually or via a larger shock; and the government may then be “much less able” to respond because institutions have been weakened.

Transparency note
Selective excerpting and English translation were assisted by ChatGPT. Quotations are partial and kept short.
Source: Spiegel.de (DER SPIEGEL 1/2026), interview “Daron Acemoğlu: Warum der Nobelpreisträger ein turbulentes Jahr 2026 erwartet” (23 Dec 2025).

in 1 min I am locking for entry

One should keep in mind that Der Spiegel was once a serious magazine many years ago, but it has long since become an extended mouthpiece of the German government, promoting woke propaganda, climate propaganda, Corona panic-mongering, Zelensky flattery and so on in the german government's interest, while on the other hand doing everything it can to make the current US government – especially D.Trump – look bad.

Daron Acemoğlu, the 2024 Nobel Prize winner in Economic Sciences and professor at MIT (USA), is the source of the statements cited here.

Your criticism of Der Spiegel misses the point in this case. The passage referenced is not an editorial opinion, but a direct interview with Daron Acemoğlu. The remarks about institutional erosion and the U.S. dollar are his own assessments (not Spiegel commentary).

Disagreeing with Acemoğlu’s conclusions is entirely legitimate. Dismissing them by attacking the outlet that published the interview is not. The argument stands or falls on the credibility of a current Nobel laureate and the substance of his claims — not on one’s view of Spiegel’s broader editorial positioning.

Btw: your only two posts since registering on this forum were replies to my comments, both with a clearly negative framing of Germany. That context is at least worth keeping in mind when accusing others of propaganda.

Fundamental Outlook for the next year and recap for the past year
Forgive rule breaking once a year

Let's party boys! The sherrif is outa town! Plus it's the last weekend of 2025 yoo-hoo!

I think we are bullish overall up until the first week of january. We haven't tapped yet into a previous OB, and the upward trend is closer to supply than demand, I may be wrong tho

My guess since the last Fed rate cut is 1.185.
That level was strongly revisited after the post–rate-cut spike above 1.19.

DXY: Dollar Index - USD have been in a month + downward trend, since it topped on 21th November, by barely sweeping the high(liquidity run), after that, we had controlled demolition. During this period, we have had no liquidity runs on the opposing side, beside some gap filling. Last week, Monday(22/12) started very aggressive attacking previous weeks low(Tuesday 16/12), this low is important IMO because it closed a previous untouched gap(Daily) and we had a relative good reaction, which indicate this is an important level. Wednesday(24/12) was the day we attacked this low and again saw a strong reaction: 1: by puncturing the low, which provides at least temporary a strong low in my analysis, 2: by sweeping liquidity. What we are left with, short term wise is indication towards upward movement, 1: First gap close to the 50% encroachment, based on the daily(gap from Monday-Tuesday 22-23 Dec) Secondly: Right below, there is a double top on the 4h(liquidity) Thirdly: an inverse gap from the week earlier + fair value gap that tops OTE sweet spot(70.5% marked in yellow)



Euro/USD(Fiber): Obviously, Euro have followed the opposite movement to the USD Index, by moving controlled, ladder wise upward, with no liquidity runs opposing the trend and a bunch of relative equal lows that are left untouched. On Tuesday(16/12) Euro swept a wick from October 1st and had a very good rejection, that week closed actually red, although some brokers had it as indecisive doji candle, while others had upside down hammer(/hanging man?) but come last week, even in pre-market on Sunday evening, market did not run the equal 4h lows(although price was inside daily fair value gap) nor did it properly run NY midnight low, before going higher and attacking the prev weeks high(16/12) - However, we saw a narrow sweep of liquidity before rejection, which indicates this whole run was liquidity grab, which points to a strong local high. Last week was not a full trading week due to holidays, this week is the same, meaning we will not trade a full week, however, on Friday, although wick wise, we did break the 4h structure toward the bearish side, aligning with what we see on the dollar index. I expect we reach the 50% encroachment and at least touch the fair value gap as shown in the green box, which coincide with first dollar index gap + above 4h double top(usd index)

Notes: FOMC meeting on Tuesday, Un empl. claims on Wednesday + early close, before we open again on Friday, which closes multiple monthly candles and opens a new calendar year, this can provide challenges in terms of technical analysis as markets move less fluid, especially considering the Geo-political situation world wide, therefore caution is advised and for me personally, dont have open positions over weekends/holidays due to fear of gaps in case of war etc.

Well, guys, I'm hoping for a bullish London and a bearish New York. Let's see how this plays out. 1.17630 above is good for me to sell, but I want to sell above my range, since the price came out below my range. It's still touching the daily bullish resistance.

H4 opening 1.1756 while price is above is good for bulls.

So far every M30 candle with unbroken low - uprange

Magnesium pulls the price up, go bulls go

Bearish trap after bearish trap

D1: Freeze bears for a while because 1.1755 is good support...

Today, it looks like bulls want to retest ~1.1808 area.... Only after it fails we can unfreeze bearish plans...