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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #6,301
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:07am Aug 21, 2007 7:07am
Hey my girls are back!!! Hey Donna and Nadia...I've been sitting on my hands with the $yen and e$, just don't see anything. Thanks for the head's-up on that meeting this morning pips...you know I've been thinking...I just might start to clean my room.....nahhhhhhhhhhhh.

For the new faces that haven't met Phillip, here he is...

The Master himself....
Attached Image
  • #6,302
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:19am Aug 21, 2007 7:19am
In the most high respect that i have for Phillip, i always imagined him in my head as Albert Einstien. working hard on charts.But this is close enough. Yes Donna thanks for the heads up,and mike for reminding about it, I opened the long position as mentioned above but now having second thoughts. I think i need to refocus. And try not to over trade and make rookie mistakes as taking EVERY SIGNAL. Thanks,
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,303
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:47am Aug 21, 2007 7:47am
Quoting BIL2205
Hello Mikewong,
I took the same euro short as u did, however i closed it - 10 pips. i dont think there is a set rule for how many cadles to wait for, BUT the general idea is to wait 3-4 candles,If anyone has a different opinion please feel free to share. That is what i did for euro, also i think i should have paid more attentin to the positive divergence on the daily chart for euro. If i had to plan my trade differently i would have closed my short and posititioned myself for a long breakout which is happening right now. Price was moving in a channel showing signs for a breakout coming up. Oh well, another lesson learned. Good luck with your trades,
Nadia.
Thanks Nadia.
Positive divergence on the daily, as in like a bullish divergence?
I only see a not-smooth round bottom on the daily ...care to share?
  • #6,304
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:07am Aug 21, 2007 8:07am
Quoting mikewong
Thanks Nadia.
Positive divergence on the daily, as in like a bullish divergence?
I only see a not-smooth round bottom on the daily ...care to share?
Hello Mike, That is a good point, I hope Phillip or someone expert can shed more light on this. What i had observed was that macd moving up making a round bottom like you said, where as price was only moving side ways. Maybe there is another name for such a movement other than divergence. In my limited knowledge this is what i perceived. Currently price is struggeling to break the 1.3500 mark. I hope it does break it for the sake of my long position. HOPE however does not have a place in forex. Lets see how it plays out.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,305
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:20am Aug 21, 2007 8:20am
Are you guys referring to the 4hr or the daily???
  • #6,306
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:21am Aug 21, 2007 8:21am
Quoting Palmer
Are you guys referring to the 4hr or the daily???
Daily for euro
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,307
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:24am Aug 21, 2007 8:24am
Quoting martaroony
Hey Hipster, I see you got out of the Usd/Cad, I set my SL just underneath the 200 ema, thankfully, hopefully we're on our way back now, upwards.
In the immortal words of Agent 86,
"Missed me by that much" 3 pips to be exact.

Marty
Good Job with the stop, I hope your r:r is good and that you made some pips per your rules.
  • #6,308
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:36am Aug 21, 2007 8:36am
Nadia..."Currently price is struggeling to break the 1.3500 mark."

Maybe that is some of the answer right there....along with that 10am meeting today, and price is still around two support lines, and the 8/21/89 ma's are all converging. Price seems to look for direction when all things line up like this...may hands are starting to hurt from sitting on them. I'm on the sidelines until things get going..
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  • #6,309
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:54am Aug 21, 2007 8:54am
Waiting for confirmation.
  • #6,310
  • Aug 21, 2007 9:13am Aug 21, 2007 9:13am
Quoting BIL2205
Hello Mike, That is a good point, I hope Phillip or someone expert can shed more light on this. What i had observed was that macd moving up making a round bottom like you said, where as price was only moving side ways. Maybe there is another name for such a movement other than divergence. In my limited knowledge this is what i perceived. Currently price is struggeling to break the 1.3500 mark. I hope it does break it for the sake of my long position. HOPE however does not have a place in forex. Lets see how it plays out.
yeah...you're right...i didn't notice that...round bottom forming but prices are moving sideways.

for a moment it went to 1.3519 but closed below 1.3500 mark...

well the news should be officially out by now...according to FF's official time and calendar. well...we'll see what happens
  • #6,311
  • Edited 12:04pm Aug 21, 2007 11:33am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting shauny
I thought the stoploss should be placed at the previous 2 bars? Why did u put ur stoploss at 21ema? Mine is GMT -5..
Hi Shauny. I haven't seen any one rule on placing stops, but, when you have two moving averages near each other, there is a tendancy for the price to fluctuate between the two, when it isn't trending. Therefore, in a situation where price seems to be consolidating, I would, personally look to the nearest MA's to decide whether R:R was worthwhile, either that or a well tested trend line or a meaningful price level, where price failed in the past. What I am trying to look for in a stop loss is an area where price has been rejected with authority or (in the case of a moving average) is likely to be rejected or stalled. I'm sorry about the time confusion. I'm GMT-6 during daylight savings time. I currently don't trade GBPUSD, but, when I looked at my chart and tried to compare with yours, I never got a bearish signal like you did. I am trying to teach myself, as a cardinal rule, that I don't take a trade unless I feel there is a solid place to place my stop with a good possibility of profit. I still have problems with that, so that's why it stands out so strongly in my mind. Also, don't forget what Palmer said about the bullish divergence on the MACD. The best to you!

Incidentally, I took EURUSD long this morning and placed my stop below the previous bar's low of 1.3456, at 1.3451, because that candle had a fairly long lower shadow with a substantial bullish body. I waited for a pullback to enter just above the 21 ema, at 1.3490, hoping that the m.a. would give me some stop protection. Currently, it's not clear whether I'm going to have to take a loss or not, but I hope I won't wait for price to hit my stop to decide that. This is probably the hardest part of trading for me.

Forgot to mention my target level. It was 1.3540, just below the price high of 1.3447. I'm thinking of that in past tense now because it keeps looking like I may have to cut my losses, as price keeps playing with today's main pivot level, 1.3481 and the 21 and 8 ema's. That's it. I'm out, so now price can start going back up again.
  • #6,312
  • Aug 21, 2007 11:49am Aug 21, 2007 11:49am
Quoting benniardi
How do you determine your time format?
I'm in Vancouver, so I'm using PST, and while most of you guys are in North America? because I see my chart at 20:00 candle today and it is closing at 1.9869 and the 21 ema was at 1.9832.

Thank you in advance =)
Hello benniardi. I'm sorry about causing time confusion. My platform is GMT-6 during daylight savings time, but I try to refer to my candles in GMT on the thread. Using that as a guideline, my four hour candles change at 0:00 GMT, 4:00, 8:00, 12:00, 16:00, and 20:00, etc.
  • #6,313
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:32pm Aug 21, 2007 12:32pm
Phillip's motto is: "I would rather miss a good trade than be in a bad one.

As a dog, my motto is: If I am in a pile of garbage, I would rather be out. If I am out of a pile of garbage, I would rather be in.
  • #6,314
  • Aug 21, 2007 2:33pm Aug 21, 2007 2:33pm
Quoting OldDog
Phillip's motto is: "I would rather miss a good trade than be in a bad one.

As a dog, my motto is: If I am in a pile of garbage, I would rather be out. If I am out of a pile of garbage, I would rather be in.

Ok i got stopped out on my euro long, WHY WOULD I BUY OR SELL WHEN IT WAS TIME TO REST. Maybe we all need to read our mottos again. I might be out until there is some clear direction. HOnestly when i entered the trade it seemed like a valid setup , price had been channeling and then a breakout, But then price came back as fast as it had gone up . Volatility. i wonder who warned earlier to stay out today. Was it PIPS. why was i not listening. Maybe i should have taken care of the THINGS TO DO list. anyways, all trades cannot be perfect. I had one short from yesterday and one long from today not working out. So maybe it is time TO REST.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #6,315
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:24pm Aug 21, 2007 4:24pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Frank,

This is in response to a post Days ago...re: short swissy. I said to use 365 as TP & you thought I meant 200. I would have targeted 365 b/c it was above the 200 (and a bit below the 21 which was a bit risky)....so I would have closed half of positions there and moved remaining to BE w/trailing 30 pips stop.

As it turned out....You were right on w/the 200 getting hit! Boy! My beloved Swissy moved far fast!!! Hope you took the trade and made the pips!!!!

Happy trading,
Pips
Yes, Pips I was in the trade when I posted, and targetted the 200MA. I am in Australia, and it reached it during sleeptime, but I woke and thought I would just check where it was, and it was bouncing off the 200 MA with about 10 pips away from my target, so i closed. It had looked a cert so I loaded a few more lots than I would and ended up with c.90 pips for the move, which was good. (Bad practice, I know). So I went back to bed and slept well, with pips in the bag.
Frank
FrankieB
  • #6,316
  • Aug 21, 2007 4:54pm Aug 21, 2007 4:54pm
Frank: there's nothing wrong with taking money off the table.

Not sure who exactly said it but, "You can't go broke taking a profit."
  • #6,317
  • Aug 21, 2007 5:46pm Aug 21, 2007 5:46pm
Quoting OldDog
Hello benniardi. I'm sorry about causing time confusion. My platform is GMT-6 during daylight savings time, but I try to refer to my candles in GMT on the thread. Using that as a guideline, my four hour candles change at 0:00 GMT, 4:00, 8:00, 12:00, 16:00, and 20:00, etc.
Hei,

Thanks for the reply.
My four hour candles showing at 0:00, 4:00, etc.. does it mean it's in GMT? because it doesn't say anything.
Also, I'm still having trouble with MACD chart, as the ratio (0.0015, 0.0030, etc) is stacking in one line on some currency pairs. How do you make adjustment?
I read some thread on earlier page, and they calculate the percentage based on ATR ? What is ATR.. (sorry if it's more like 'noob' question, I'm still learning) =p

Thanks
  • #6,318
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:00pm Aug 21, 2007 7:00pm
benniardi:

The ATR is the Average True Range, from the high to the low, for x number of bars back. If your ATR is set to 1 the range is just the high to the low. If it is set to 5 it is the average of the range of each of the last 5 bars. Your MACD level might be stacked close due to all the recent high ranging bars in some of the pairs. My USDJPY MACD levels are very tight just because of that...
  • #6,319
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:53pm Aug 21, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey my girls are back!!! Hey Donna and Nadia...I've been sitting on my hands with the $yen and e$, just don't see anything. Thanks for the head's-up on that meeting this morning pips...you know I've been thinking...I just might start to clean my room.....nahhhhhhhhhhhh.

For the new faces that haven't met Phillip, here he is...

The Master himself....

...but...that really is Phillip! Who knew that Obi was real, eh?

Yes...I'm sitting out of the market at the moment too...nothing looks very interesting. After all the volatility lately, guess a rest is in order.

Happy trading all!!! Hope you all caught many pips over the last few weeks!! Looking forward to the next leg when it starts.....
  • #6,320
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:58pm Aug 21, 2007 8:58pm
Quoting BIL2205
In the most high respect that i have for Phillip, i always imagined him in my head as Albert Einstien. working hard on charts.But this is close enough. Yes Donna thanks for the heads up,and mike for reminding about it, I opened the long position as mentioned above but now having second thoughts. I think i need to refocus. And try not to over trade and make rookie mistakes as taking EVERY SIGNAL. Thanks,
Nadia.
Hi Nadia,

Looks like my "warning" was for naught. Totally understand the "rookie" move....but, the way the markets have been running, it has been very difficult not to get caught up in the moves and want to be part of it. I was totally engulfed in G/J and E/J for the last few weeks...living completly around their actions. Soooo....the moral of the story is....there are a few times to trade aggressively (in a defensive manner) and make hay while the sun shines...the last few weeks have been one of those times . The overtrading only applies if you are flipping positions from long to short w/every signal...that is rookie move...and deadly to account balances....It doesn't apply to well thought out plans executed dilligently and managed per your proven trading rules.

Hope you made lots of pips & traded well!
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