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Forex - A negative sum game for losers

  • #981
  • Dec 12, 2025 3:53am Dec 12, 2025 3:53am
Quoting pescador
Hi Hudi, So you have established the reasons why 95% (or more) of all traders fail ... nice. What does your consequence lead to? Or what should it lead to? Trading avoidance by the large population? By the way, the large majority of people, the average (mediocre) Joe unfortunately sucks with whatever they do, not just trading. Even with doing "their" analysis. Do you also have any evidence or analysis of the reasons, why those belonging to the 1-5% minority of successful traders are successful? IQ, psychological traits, methodology, pure luck or...
The about 1.9% successful retail forex traders over a periode of 5 years is pretty much about what you can mathematically expect to be successful by pure luck considering retail forex is a zero sum game, apply average spread costs, commissions, overnight costs, very high costs in the daily conversion of your daily profit / loss into your account currency if you trade pairs other than your account currency. All of these traders apply a proper risk management and trade with consistent rules and a reasonable low leverage, otherwise they would never ever survive 5 years. If risk managment isn't applied or leverage is too high retail forex traders blow up their accounts typically < 3 months.

Data shows that those profitable over a 5 year time span do as a group not have a higher probablity to be more profitable over the next 5 years. This confirms that almost all of it was because of luck. All elements in retail forex trading are working against the success of a retail trader. That's how all brokers, banks, etc providing such services make billions in a year globally. They don't do it because they are better in predicting the future. They achieve it with a risk neutral approach letting spreads, commissions and yields and overleverage of their customers do the job. This works and their gross profits are all paid for by their customers trading retail forex. Beside that, in each trade you compete against professional market participants that beat you in regards to speed, statistical data, non public data streams, real time positioning data, insider knowledge.....etc. etc. If retail forex traders wouldn't lose against these groups, they wouldn't exist anymore.

This thread can help you to make the right decisions how to invest your time and your money. I hate to see people getting fleeced by lies and propaganda. However, most ignore my advice and decide to learn it the hard way. I don't have a problem with that. The freedom to make mistakes is part of the personal freedom everybody should have. Use it wisely.

Instead of retail forex, a negative sum game for losers, do something productive, something that adds value, that solves a problem, that provides a service, that makes the world a tiny bit better. Every job pays off better than the time you waste with retail forex.
  • #982
  • Dec 12, 2025 4:12am Dec 12, 2025 4:12am
Quoting spzd
{quote} You are very limited in your resources...
Well, does it hurt? Please don't unload your frustration in my thread.

Quoting spzd
Admission: I have concluded I can't trade naked price action.....
Ok...so you are almost on my page and thank your interest in my thread..... but I still fear you are in denial:

Quoting spzd
The next pic should be the final completed system. But not likely today.
Still waiting, spzd. Still waiting.....

Ok, my next prediction is your system has a probability of less then 2% to be profitable over the next 5 years if you trade it using a retail forex broker plattform. Let's see how this one ages. If I am wrong, I am so happy for you.
  • #983
  • Dec 12, 2025 8:12am Dec 12, 2025 8:12am
Quoting W0lfram
{quote} ...says the oligophrenic miscarriage with politically motivated denial of reality Cletus, you're a mess. What do Europeans have to do with any of this? Try using the remnants of your brain and read your country's intelligence reports. Then come back and tell us what conclusions you managed to scrape together
You mean those reports done by questionable people for questionable reasons.

Please. You just committed one of the biggest fallacies there are.

You claim to be intelligent. Think about it.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #984
  • Dec 12, 2025 8:14am Dec 12, 2025 8:14am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Well, does it hurt? Please don't unload your frustration in my thread. {quote} Ok...so you are almost on my page and thank your interest in my thread..... but I still fear you are in denial: {quote} Still waiting, spzd. Still waiting..... Ok, my next prediction is your system has a probability of less then 2% to be profitable over the next 5 years if you trade it using a retail forex broker plattform. Let's see how this one ages. If I am wrong, I am so happy for you.
You went through a lot of trouble in an attempt to do whatever the fuck you are doing.

Sorry, your games are as lame as your ideology.
Mark ... Everything you have been told is a LIE
  • #985
  • Edited 1:10pm Dec 12, 2025 12:05pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting spzd
{quote} You mean those reports done by questionable people for questionable reasons.
I see... Foreign actors broke multiple federal criminal laws targeting the integrity of elections which are protected by the Constitution's framework.
Our narrative addict fact-resistant citizen Cletus doubts FBI, CIA and NSA (questionable people) and considers their work questionable (questionable reasons*). --see the 1st link in my first post. But you can find more documents of course.
Why investigate such things, really?
*well, the questionable reasons are apparently the US laws that regulate these agencies.


Later the Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee issued its 5 volume, 1313 pages long report. - https://www.intelligence.senate.gov/...tive-measures/
Marko Rubio, acting committee head, said that "no probe into this matter has been more exhaustive"
Quoting spzd
{quote} That was almost funny. I assume you still buy into all that Russia BS from 2016.
Let me guess, you only believe Orangutan's tweets and no evidence are the matter for you?
Can you actually point where the BS from 2016 is? Who and why hacked Hilary, etc?

p.s.
The only questionable thing right now is: did Donnie blew Bubba?
oh, one more: when all Epstein files will be released?
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Air force
  • #986
  • Dec 13, 2025 8:57am Dec 13, 2025 8:57am
Honestly, the whole “Forex is a negative‑sum game for losers” argument feels like a half‑truth that gets repeated without context. Yes, retail traders lose at a high rate -nobody is denying that. But blaming the market instead of the behavior is like blaming a gym because most people don’t get six‑pack abs.

The reality is simple:

- Trading has always been hard.
- Most people jump in with zero preparation.
- Leverage amplifies stupidity.
- And the industry happily profits from that combination.

But none of this magically turns forex into some cursed arena where success is impossible. If that were true, we wouldn’t have funds, banks, prop firms, and independent traders who’ve been consistently profitable for years.

The internet didn’t replace traders- it empowered the ones who knew how to use it. AI will do the exact same thing.

The people who lose will still lose, because tools don’t fix mindset, discipline, or risk management. The people who win will win faster, because tools amplify skill, not luck.

Calling forex a 'negative‑sum game for losers' is basically saying:

“I couldn’t make it work, so nobody else can.”
That’s not analysis -that’s projection.

If someone treats trading like a casino, the outcome will be identical to a casino. If someone treats it like a profession, the outcome will reflect that too.

At the end of the day, the market doesn’t care who wins or loses. It just rewards the few who actually put in the work according to the right trend!
For Gold, NY session offers superior tradability compared to London.
  • #987
  • Dec 14, 2025 3:27pm Dec 14, 2025 3:27pm
Read page one on this thread. What you claim are not even half truths, it's snake oiler gospel:

  1. 99% of retail forex trader start end end the game with far too low capital (average account size about 2500 USD)
  2. If you trade 2500 USD without leverage in a market that is more or less flat over a year despite yield differences and you have daily moves of about 1% max you can invest all your time you want to gain what? 25 USD on a perfect day?
  3. So what they do.... they apply leverage and that's where they get screwed mathematically

Banks, hedgefunds, prop firms are not retail forex traders, dummy.

Show me the retail traders making money significant amounts of money by trading currencies through speculation and a prediction about the future over a time span of 10 years and over several economic cycles.... despite about 10 mio active retail forex traders globally, almost zero of them make significant money...and those who do can be explained by luck in 99% of the cases.

Calling retail forex trading a negative game for losers is exactly saying what it says:

  1. Taking spread, commissions, overnight swaps, account costs, transfer fees etc into consideration, the mathematically proven zero sum game becomes a negative sum game for a retail forex trader. That is a 100% fact. No room for your uninformed opinion.
  2. Since it is almost impossible to overcome this disadvantage, the claim that this is a game for losers is also 98.1 % true over a 5 year periode. Over a 10 year periode it is > 99% and for longer periods it appoaches 100%.

10mio active traders and even if 99.9% lose, 0.1% would mean there are about 10 000 000 / 1000 = 10000 traders at least theoretically could be making a profit. I think the reality is even much lower, but yes, it is unlikely to be 0, because the stats allow for truely lucky traders over a long periode of time.

10000 will try and lose massive amounts of money - 1 might make some profit.... but he will only win a very tiny percentage of the losses from all others, because the rest is syphoned by brokers, banks, hedgefunds, etc based on how this market is organized. These successful traders are sure traders with high enough capital trading unleveraged or with very little leverage and then if you make 10 - 15 percent per year you are grand master doing everthing right. If you are on that level you would need at least a trading capital of about 1 mio USD to make 100000 - 150000 / year before all other costs and taxes. Retail forex is not abou traders with 1 mio trading capital, or hedgefunds or banks or brokers... Sorry, we are talking about 2500 USD average trading capital. And even if you bring 50000 or 100000 to the table.... forget it, you won't achieve a reasonable profit compared to the time you invest, even if you are the grand master personally. This is the lie they sell to you.... and most believe it. That's bullshit and an can be proven beyond reasonable doubt.

So you decide to participate under these odds. Well, good luck. You will lose and I will be proven right with a probablity of almost 100%. So all those who come here to offload their snakeoil... one half are shovel sellers who profit from selling teaching, systems, affiliate marketin to channel new losers to brokers. etc without really trading themselves. I made this thread to make their live a bit harder, because the suffering they cause goes far beyond those who get fleeced personally. It stretches to their family, friends, workplaces...and finally burdens the social systems and tax payers like me.

The other half are uninformed newbies swinging for the fences, or addicted gambers still in denial till they are financially destroyed.....so I really see no need to punish the second group. They will punish themselves over time and that doesn't provide the smallest amount of pleasure to me.

However, if they invest their time into reasonable productive actions maybe I am the lucky one who can buy one of their great services or products in the future that I love to use and that makes my life simpler and better. Yes, this is what this is all about. Making us better as a group by redirecting our energy to things that actually make sense.

Now it is up to you to do the right thing.

  • #988
  • Dec 16, 2025 1:05am Dec 16, 2025 1:05am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Well, does it hurt? Please don't unload your frustration in my thread.
Well, casinos work. Some people go there from time to time for fun.
But the guys who keep coming back with the hope to beat the game are sick addicts.
Now, it's impossible to talk sense to an addict.
So your thread here attracts like a magnet the worst possible idiotic characters, a collection of the most angry losers...
A real menagerie full of weird animals but all with the same rabid illness
What! There will always be a small percentage of people sick with greed and stupidity.
After all, everything's fine. A perfect world, Hud
Member
  • #989
  • Dec 16, 2025 1:32am Dec 16, 2025 1:32am
Quoting TudorIoan
{quote} Well, casinos work. Some people go there from time to time for fun. But the guys who keep coming back with the hope to beat the game are sick addicts. Now, it's impossible to talk sense to an addict. So your thread here attracts like a magnet the worst possible idiotic characters, a collection of the most angry losers... A real menagerie full of weird animals but all with the same rabid illness What! There will always be a small percentage of people sick with greed and stupidity. After all, everything's fine. A perfect world, Hud ...
afternoon mate i see you full exuberance and doing well ,
people leave, but this thread will go on for ever
  • #990
  • Dec 16, 2025 4:39pm Dec 16, 2025 4:39pm
Everthing is fine indeed. I mean even Aussi is here to learn something.....
  • #991
  • Dec 17, 2025 1:19am Dec 17, 2025 1:19am
Hehe, most of the Forex Factory folks are smart people... I'll give them that, WTF, it's Christmastime
Even libertarians, anti-Americans, anti-institution crazy fucks, anarchists, trading gurus and their victims the trading addicts ...they all have a point somehow or at least a half-point
Take Aussi, he's too smart to be that stupid! I awlawys thought he's just fkn playing us Hi, mate, luv ya!

But they maybe lack moral compas. Too much Black they see as White... And that's the only thing that can make a smart guy look stupid

Peace, ya'll!
Member
  • #992
  • Dec 18, 2025 2:27pm Dec 18, 2025 2:27pm
One question I ask myself regularly is why fake news and propaganda aren't adressed by regulators far more rigorously. Combined with AI it has reached a level that is absolutly toxic and causes maximal harm. To our children, to our brains, to our societies and democracies, to common sense and likely also to peace and prosperity in the long run. The world is flooded with lies and bull shit like never bevor.

The same tatics used to spit out the endless gospels of profitable retail trading since decades are now destabilizing democracies by spreading fake news of any kind at such a high rate, are enabling to create alternative realities (fake and untrue) of any kind for a significant portion of the population (MAGA, right wing movements in Europe, but also extreme left wing movements and environmental extremist movements, extreme animal protection movements), the list goes on and on. Even flat earthers or evolution deniers floorish in some corners. It doesn't just affect the stupid and uneducated - it goes far beyond that. It starts to alter common sense and damages the brains of hundreds of millions consuming newsfeeds of global propaganda outlets financed by state actors (like Russian propaganda) or billionaires (like X by Musk) or other US social media tech billionaires by offering insentives for clickbaits and advertising while spreading the fake news. Large parts of the internet becomes not just worthless, it becomes harmful and toxic. The real information gets buried under endless AI nonsense content.

Here is an article that sheds some light on one kind of fake news spreader and their motivation - make money with the help of the Russian propaganda departement. It got much worse since then.

https://english.elpais.com/elpais/20...09_000141.html

Merge clickbaits, propaganda, manipulation with the ability to make money because of how todays revenue models of US tech concerns like X, Google, Facebook, Microsoft etc. work and you will get an idea how it will destroy us if we don't stop them with laws and fine those who do and profit from it out of business. The incentives have to be changed quickly. Better yesterday then tomorrow. It should never pay off to distribute fake news.

I think this is the most urgent global problem to adress these days, because it hinders to solve every other big problem we have to solve as a global community. It destroys our ability to make reasonable decision as a society and shifting the power to the few billionaires and dicators who control the propaganda machines. Some seem to know in Silicon Valley. That's why the spend like crazy to stay ahead in this race.

The EU fines on X are a tiny first step adressing one of the worst propaganda hellholes, but Alphabet with Google and Youtube, Facebook and Microsoft and many other are doing and enabling the same thing and making huge profits by doing so. Can you see the reaction of the US tech billionaires when we start to adress that problem? Yep, they immediately openly attack EU institutions and all democracies who dare to regulate them. They think they are entitled doing whatever they want becaused they bought Trump and own the US army. Since these companies reach the economic power of whole countries and are internally organized less democratic than dicatorships, this might grow to a serious problem. I wouldn't be surprised if the start to act more and more like private state actors and try to build an own or undermine and take over an existing country where they can rule without any restrictions afterwards and can install their technocracy. El Salvador gives such vibes already.....
  • #993
  • Dec 18, 2025 3:07pm Dec 18, 2025 3:07pm
BTC 85k again and some guys might get a reality check soon:

https://i.redd.it/sciok8tcjz5g1.png

Why should the market go to 130k when it can destroy Strategy and other copy cats with going down to 40K and then slowly continue to sell off till investors force them out of their digital nothing burgers, while almost all leveraged retail crypto traders are forced yout of their positions? When will all these BTC etf buyers realizse banks just did what they always do? It is a negative sume game ^2 for retail etf investors. They just helped the whales to get out at higher prices....and probably will help them re entry at lower prices.

At some point some whales pump BTC again but that works better from levels like 20k, 10k or even 1k.
  • #994
  • Dec 18, 2025 4:18pm Dec 18, 2025 4:18pm
Quoting HudithePfupf
One question I ask myself regularly is why fake news and propaganda aren't adressed by regulators far more rigorously. Combined with AI it has reached a level that is absolutly toxic and causes maximal harm. To our children, to our brains, to our societies and democracies, to common sense and likely also to peace and prosperity in the long run. The world is flooded with lies and bull shit like never bevor. The same tatics used to spit out the endless gospels of profitable retail trading since decades are now destabilizing democracies by spreading...
Must admit reading this for a few secs there i beacame quite hopefull.

Then the usual anti right rhetoric filtered in.

You will learn, by then then though it'll be too late and trading a negative sum game will be the least of your worries.

A war is coming.

The left are hell bent on it.
  • #995
  • Dec 19, 2025 2:10am Dec 19, 2025 2:10am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} .... A war is coming.....
Moody.... you are either a part of the problem I just described or a victim. Reflect for a moment. Are you played by your news feed?
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Do the following experment. Cut off your typical news feed and switch 100% to a center or center left leaning news source for 1 month. You'll survive it. Then return to a pure right wing news source and compare. If you do this rapidly, you should start to spot the game they play with you. Same method works for ultra left wingers.

“The fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy" - Elon Musk.
If the currently richest men is internalising Jordan Peterson like pseudo intellectual trash and feels entitled to act accordingly and a president putting himself first in every single issue acting above the law, doesn't this has a far higher probability to lead us to a next war if we just let them?
  • #996
  • Dec 19, 2025 2:18am Dec 19, 2025 2:18am
And here a must read summary I found today for all interested in the problematic. Highly recommanded to read this.

Exactly my point:
President Donald Trump's 23 July 2025 executive order on 'Preventing woke AI in the federal government' urged federal agencies not to procure services that 'sacrifice truthfulness and accuracy to ideological agendas'. The document alleged that chatbots had distorted facts to meet diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, and included the explicit principle that LLMs 'do not manipulate responses in favor of ideological dogmas such as DEI'. At the same time, while escalating negative rhetoric about EU digital regulation, the White House is seeking to prevent states from regulating AI, including via a special federal taskforce, according to an 11 December 2025 executive order.

In this field, a war isn't coming, it is already ongoing and it's time to fight the aggressors.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf EPRS_BRI(2025)779259_EN.pdf   349 KB | 159 downloads
  • #997
  • Dec 19, 2025 5:44am Dec 19, 2025 5:44am
Quoting HudithePfupf
{quote} Moody.... you are either a part of the problem I just described or a victim. Reflect for a moment. Are you played by your news feed? {image} Do the following experment. Cut off your typical news feed and switch 100% to a center or center left leaning news source for 1 month. You'll survive it. Then return to a pure right wing news source and compare. If you do this rapidly, you should start to spot the game they play with you. Same method works for ultra left wingers. “The fundamental weakness of Western civilization is empathy" - Elon Musk....

Biggest con in history happening right now for those who did believe in leftwing BS.

UK will recover from the damage, but with Starmer and his leftwing hate mob cancelling local elections it’s going to take time.

Starting a war is the only way he’ll stop a general election.

The Nazis cancelled elections.

And they started a war.

There will be a war, it’s inevitable, and it won’t be the right who are responsible for it.
  • #998
  • Dec 21, 2025 5:53am Dec 21, 2025 5:53am
Oh boy, war is so much forced upon poor right wingers these days by nice upper cuts in pink gloves.....

Your last post is a cullmination of basic, unspecific propaganda snippets programmed into your brain. You validate my claims providing a real world example and I feel sorry for the mental state your in. Go reflect with someone in your family outside the information bubble you trust. Not me, not another anonymous stranger on the internet. Try to socialize outsight your circle. Be kind, honest, reliable, open and see what is comming back. Todays world is (mostly) a pretty good one and you can make it even better. Small things count.

The thought that a war is inevitable should be banned out of your head. No war is inevitable. Stop the persons who want to drag you into a war by reading the pdf document I attached in the last post. Education is helpful.
  • #999
  • Dec 21, 2025 6:52am Dec 21, 2025 6:52am
Quoting HudithePfupf
Oh boy, war is so much forced upon poor right wingers these days by nice upper cuts in pink gloves..... Your last post is a cullmination of basic, unspecific propaganda snippets programmed into your brain. You validate my claims providing a real world example and I feel sorry for the mental state your in. Go reflect with someone in your family outside the information bubble you trust. Not me, not another anonymous stranger on the internet. Try to socialize outsight your circle. Be kind, honest, reliable, open and see what is comming back. Todays...
I travelled up to Sydney. Do you know where that is?

I saw the culmination of left wing denial laid out in flowers and wreaths.

Let me know once you have visited there.
  • #1,000
  • Edited 3:29pm Dec 21, 2025 11:03am | Edited 3:29pm
Quoting moodybot
{quote} I travelled up to Sydney. Do you know where that is? I saw the culmination of left wing denial laid out in flowers and wreaths. Let me know once you have visited there.
Do you really think the Bondi beach terror attack is a left wing problem?
The right certainly wants to brand it this way. The question is why?

I think, based on what is known so far, this is a religious extremism problem. 2 men misled through constant lies by extremist religious leaders and preachers start to become radicalized up to a level where they start to be actually violent and spread terror. Again, the lying and in this case religious propaganda is the very core of the problem to be adressed. The final terror act is a result of the former. They are tools indoctrinated and used by others who understand this game, much like MAGA voters are manipulated by others who know this game as well. Likely these terrorists live in an alternative reality. They completely believe that what they do is fully justified in their alternative reality.

Now check for parallels if you are a right wing ideologies supporter. Aren't the methods used very similar? Don't you think most Jan 6ers where completely convinced to be doing the right thing? The MAGA movement, Trump and all right wing broadcasters built up this alternative reality that let them finally do what they did. Some got it in hindsight that they where used and played. Some will never get it.

But what you should take home is that there are ways to radicalize a certain percentage of the population with existing propaganda techniques. This is reality and we see the results all over the place these days. You can scientifically proven hack brains and manipulate people. That's why we have to reasonably regulate the access to our brains through social media, news, tv, radio etc.

Especially the combination lying with reach must be adressed. 50 years ago the ability to spread lies was limited to state actors, the church or big media companies. Today a single idiot can reach 30 mio followers 24/7 through social media and push the message directly in front of their eyes. Instead of paying lots of money for doing so, he even earns money doing so. And even worse the incentives are set that the most ridiculus click bait, emotional manipulating bs content is paying off best.

Can you follow my thoughts? Where am I wrong?
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