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DOW - PA, Stops and hedging

  • #921
  • Dec 8, 2025 12:19pm Dec 8, 2025 12:19pm
Quoting 2be
DOW MTFs WRB the last session close ect WRB and fibs, I have drawn fibs to illustrate, usually I see the harmony without physically drawing the fibs. years of chart exposure{image} Few weeks ago I have added MACD to DOW charts, on short TF and for scalping they are very useful I also closely monitor VIX USD index and Bitcoin while trading DOW {image} went both ways shorts aimed at fib levels, will consider longs above 750 levels, with caution if at all
Done for the day, under 30 trades during the US session, no my usual larger number of trades, but I have not got a single looser today, possibly I have been too cautious. Have actively traded over 3 hours, and I am loosing focus, feeling more interested in keeping the profits versus taking more risk for the day.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #922
  • Dec 10, 2025 4:18pm Dec 10, 2025 4:18pm
DOW MTF
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW MTF 2025-12-10 221501.png Size: 363 KB

Very busy day on DOW
good diversions and the PA channel helds well
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #923
  • Edited 2:06pm Dec 11, 2025 12:29pm | Edited 2:06pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Done for the day, under 30 trades during the US session, no my usual larger number of trades, but I have not got a single looser today, possibly I have been too cautious. Have actively traded over 3 hours, and I am loosing focus, feeling more interested in keeping the profits versus taking more risk for the day.
It is a good idea for the market to come to the area that trades are more likely to become profitable.
For the DOW it often is in the area outside the last session close
Flat longs now, 750 quarter still a possible target.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MTFs and diversions, plus the expected rally
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #924
  • Dec 11, 2025 2:06pm Dec 11, 2025 2:06pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} It is a good idea for the market to come to the area that trades are more likely to become profitable. For the DOW it often is in the area outside the last session close Flat longs now, 750 quarter still a possible target. {image} {image} MTFs and diversions, plus the expected rally
750 quarter has been achieved
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #925
  • Dec 11, 2025 4:19pm Dec 11, 2025 4:19pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} It is a good idea for the market to come to the area that trades are more likely to become profitable. For the DOW it often is in the area outside the last session close Flat longs now, 750 quarter still a possible target. {image} {image} MTFs and diversions, plus the expected rally
clear channels of adversely correlated charts both set to M30
observe PA on the DOW in relation to the session closes, PA before US open, divergencies
At times one needs to wait for the market with all its activities to come close to the scenario allowing to take risks, risks are always part of trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW VIX 2025-12-11_221317.png Size: 78 KB
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #926
  • Edited 12:47pm Dec 12, 2025 10:02am | Edited 12:47pm
Shorting DOW, Nasdaq and S&P500 hammered much more than DOW
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW Gold 2025-12-12_160533.png Size: 185 KB

Out just below the D pivot - just in case
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #927
  • Edited 4:44pm Dec 12, 2025 12:54pm | Edited 4:44pm
at the start of US session there was a gap, which has been filled below that last session close was R blue doted line, initial shorts closed
Reestablished shorts at 750 quarter and below target D pivot and ADR L, once ADR has been reached I stopped trading
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW ADR Low 2025-12-12_184627.png Size: 80 KB


It is profitable to pay attention to different levels and gain practical understanding as to when and which levels have chance to prove significant.
As the market runs and is busy one never knows for sure, but by printing and observing these levels one eventually on gains experience to utilise them, that is so unless one is bent not to learn and enjoys losses and complaining about them, while gaining a lot of sympathy and understanding from others.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #928
  • Dec 15, 2025 5:16am Dec 15, 2025 5:16am
No time to post charts of the DOW, the gap is being printed, nothing new - that same strategy
Shorting scenario is developing, starting to build a short position on DOW, PT round 48000, we shall see, nothing is certain 48680 at the moment
48750 if it gets there will be a sweet spot to enter a larger position depending on PA and market structure on lower TFs.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #929
  • Dec 15, 2025 8:33am Dec 15, 2025 8:33am
Quoting 2be
No time to post charts of the DOW, the gap is being printed, nothing new - that same strategy Shorting scenario is developing, starting to build a short position on DOW, PT round 48000, we shall see, nothing is certain 48680 at the moment 48750 if it gets there will be a sweet spot to enter a larger position depending on PA and market structure on lower TFs.
good hunting ground
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #930
  • Dec 15, 2025 8:37am Dec 15, 2025 8:37am
Quoting 2be
No time to post charts of the DOW, the gap is being printed, nothing new - that same strategy Shorting scenario is developing, starting to build a short position on DOW, PT round 48000, we shall see, nothing is certain 48680 at the moment 48750 if it gets there will be a sweet spot to enter a larger position depending on PA and market structure on lower TFs.
taken the first well over 100 points at the DP
poss M5 rotation
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #931
  • Dec 15, 2025 8:45am Dec 15, 2025 8:45am
Quoting 2be
{quote} taken the first well over 100 points at the DP poss M5 rotation
only shorts
M1 and lower TFi direction of M30
Well over 20 trades since US open - all shorts
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #932
  • Dec 15, 2025 8:56am Dec 15, 2025 8:56am
Quoting 2be
{quote} only shorts M1 and lower TFi direction of M30 Well over 20 trades since US open - all shorts
taking short break, closed all shorts below 48500
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #933
  • Dec 15, 2025 9:00am Dec 15, 2025 9:00am
Quoting 2be
{quote} taking short break, closed all shorts below 48500
DOW gap closed, lets see the reaction
The more statically validated short to the last session close has happened
Next short target W Pivot and ADR L
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #934
  • Dec 15, 2025 9:08am Dec 15, 2025 9:08am
Quoting 2be
{quote} DOW gap closed, lets see the reaction The more statically validated short to the last session close has happened Next short target W Pivot and ADR L
looks like a down day on DOW, nothing goes in straight lane, patience is required, sell on PB on lower TF like M5, M15 and M30
I am done with posting for a while, just posted few things to note the market created opportunities.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Charts below Gold (white)
VIX and DOW (black)
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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #935
  • Dec 15, 2025 10:42am Dec 15, 2025 10:42am
well over 100 points on DOW short from LSC and rotation on M5 in the direction of PA channel on M15 and M30
48250 - wander if that quarter will be reached
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #936
  • Edited 1:41pm Dec 15, 2025 11:42am | Edited 1:41pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gold DOW APP 2025-12-15_173259.png Size: 151 KB

FIB extension or Alternative Price Projection (APP), (Robert Miner preferred term) which I find less confusing

Done for a while. It has been interesting day, with good shorting opportunities on DOW and Gold.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #937
  • Edited 5:44am Dec 16, 2025 4:45am | Edited 5:44am
establishing Longs on DOW from 48300 towards the last session close
Well defined diversion on DOW

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Later on will go long on Gold toward the last US session close too providing the divergence holds and DOW plays to the long side
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observing the diversion on GOLD printing between the yesterdays L and todays L
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #938
  • Dec 16, 2025 6:14am Dec 16, 2025 6:14am
Quoting 2be
establishing Longs on DOW from 48300 towards the last session close Well defined diversion on DOW {image} Later on will go long on Gold toward the last US session close too providing the divergence holds and DOW plays to the long side {image} observing the diversion on GOLD printing between the yesterdays L and todays L
closing longs on Dow just above last session close over +130 points
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #939
  • Dec 16, 2025 6:22am Dec 16, 2025 6:22am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: VIX Seasonality 2025 2025-03-06_100220.png Size: 53 KB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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just a reminder
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #940
  • Dec 16, 2025 11:30am Dec 16, 2025 11:30am
Quoting 2be
No time to post charts of the DOW, the gap is being printed, nothing new - that same strategy Shorting scenario is developing, starting to build a short position on DOW, PT round 48000, we shall see, nothing is certain 48680 at the moment 48750 if it gets there will be a sweet spot to enter a larger position depending on PA and market structure on lower TFs.
DOW is getting there, the round big number is close.

Remember the Triple Witching Friday is near.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
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