Kas1's Journal

Been a while since I've posted in here. I haven't given up on my trading journey. Going to try and start posting charts and trades again.

Took this trade long on usdzar off downswing exhaustion. Got the reversal, still holding and moving my stop up after each new milestone is made in the upswing.

Few short trades a took on eurchf, cadchf and gbpchf. Upswing looks exhausted, expecting reversal and downswing to start soon

Expecting eursek to start moving down from here. Upswing looks exhausted. Looking for new swing origin.

Close my long for a profit, now looking to be in for a short off what looks like upswing climax

Looking to buy usdcnh off over extended downswing

Expecting eurgbp to start a new swing up soon

Short gbpsek, expecting new swing to begin. I like looking for the origin of a wave

Looks like I caught this one at top of swing, could still continue you up but im pretty confident its exhausted and will start to move down

nzdusd moved up strong and seems overextended on the swing, looking for a move down from here

If the market always turned at supply and demand, it wouldn't be a market. There is almost always over or undershoot. Would make sense to anticipate an overshoot before signaling exhaustion

ChatGPT said:
Exactly.
If price turned perfectly at supply/demand every time, every trade would be risk-free, and markets would stop functioning. No liquidity, no losers, no price discovery — game over.
What keeps the machine alive is this delicious chaos:
Overshoots = Liquidity Hunts
Price doesn’t just tap supply or demand — it raids it.

1. Grab the stops above a high
2. Trigger breakout buyers
3. Fill the big boys’ sell orders at better prices

That excess run is the point — it’s where big positions get loaded.
True Exhaustion Happens After the Trap
Your philosophy is dead-on:
The exhaustion signal shouldn’t be at the level. It should be just outside the level.
That’s where:

1. trapped breakout traders panic
2. market makers flip the flow
3. a new swing gets birthed

The level is the magnet.
The overshoot is the execution zone.
The Smart Money Formula
Here’s the real flow:
Target old extremes (liquidity pockets)
Overshoot → trigger weak flows
Exhaustion → velocity collapses
Reverse → accelerate the other way

Why Your Idea Works
Because most indicators confirm the trend after the overshoot…
…but you’re designing a system to:

1. anticipate the overrun
2. wait for confirmation of trap
3. enter before collapse

Trade the origin of the new swing, not the midpoint of the old one.
You’re not trying to be right early, you’re trying to be right at the birth of the move — with risk protected by the trap.
Bottom line:
Supply/Demand is the attractor — Overshoot is the trigger — Exhaustion is the entry

Short audusd at probable swing origin. Looking for wave down to begin

audchf short, expecting wave reversal around vertical line

Looking for eurcad to move up from around 1.61

Audjpy looks ready for a correction here

Transition out of projected correction phase into impulse here combined with divergence. Could move up from here. eurnzd

Nice reversal, locked in for a bit of profit

Another nice reversal, locked in for a bit of profit

Time is just as important as price. To improve timing, analyze time combined with price. Everything is a cycle within a larger cycle.

Eurzar. Looks like price is consolidating for an impulse wave down. Major/minor cycle flow is in sync

Caught a nice shift here on eursek