Auction Market Theory and Market Profile

Hello
This is a classic.

There are better markets with consolidation and trending; that's what I look for when I trade CFDs.
I'm not familiar with your market, and your chart is also very cluttered with indicators.
I would also recommend the M30 chart; just a suggestion.

If you don't want to read 1300 pages or watch lots of youtube videos, give this prompt to chatgpt or any other ais chats along with the picture of the chart you want to be analyzed and it gives you an analysis of your chart with entry, exit, etc:
“You are an expert in Auction-Market Theory and Market-Profile analysis. I will supply you with an image of a chart (e.g. TPO profile, volume profile, or price-volume chart).
Your task is to interpret and explain the market’s structure and intent strictly using Auction-Market Theory / Market-Profile logic, based solely on what you see in the chart image. Provide a structured and detailed analysis including:

1. Value Area & Point of Control (POC, VAH, VAL): Identify where value appears accepted, rejected, or shifting.
2. Profile Type / Session Structure: Determine the session type based on the shape and volume/price distribution (balanced/normal, trend, double-distribution, neutral, etc.) and explain why.
3. Order Flow & Buyer-Seller Activity: Highlight indications of initiative vs responsive trading — e.g. aggression (breakouts, fast moves), absorption, single-prints or low-volume extremes, rejections, tails.
4. Value Shifts, Overlaps, and Rejections: Note if value overlaps prior value areas (if visible), or shifts higher or lower, or is being rejected.
5. Key Reference Levels / Zones: Mark important zones such as unaccepted highs/lows, volume nodes (high or low), single-print zones, rejection wicks, previous POC or value extremes — zones that could act as support/resistance or reference for future auctions.
6. Market Context & Auction Narrative: Describe the likely narrative — e.g. accumulation/distribution, imbalance, market probing for value, directional conviction or uncertainty — and who (buyers or sellers) appears to control the auction at that time.
7. Scenarios & Trade Hypotheses: Suggest 2–3 possible near-term scenarios (e.g. value re-entry, breakout continuation, fade/rejection) based on the structure and auction-logic; also clarify what would invalidate those scenarios.
8. Assumptions & Limitations: If some information is unclear (e.g. incomplete data, ambiguous volume, partial session), state explicitly that assumptions are being made and which data is missing.

Do not use external context (news, fundamentals, macro bias) — base your entire analysis only on the chart image (price, volume/profile shape, distribution). If something is not visible, say “not visible / insufficient data.”
Output your analysis in a structured, clear, logical format, suitable for further review or discussion.”

By the way make sure to follow this about your picture for better result:
A clear, high-resolution TradingView screenshot showing the profile indicator (TPO/Volume Profile), visible VAH/VAL/POC, 1–3 full sessions of context, readable price/time scales, and a clean chart with no extra indicators or clutter.

Your words are completely logical and correct. Right now I’m in the process of migrating all my indicators from MetaTrader to Sierra Chart, and in the near future most of those indicators will be removed because I’ll have a proper dashboard.
I’m planning to build an intuitive dashboard based mainly on TPO / Volume Profile / VWAP / Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) that shows things like:

1. Inside Day
2. Balance / Imbalance areas
3. Overlap Values (Previous Day High/Low/VAH/VAL/POC)
4. VWAP and standard deviation bands location vs current price
5. CVD divergence with price
6. Poor highs / poor lows
7. SinglePrints
8. Absorption / exhaustion signals
9. Delta divergence, etc.

I really want to move toward quantitative analysis and optimization of intuitive systems in the future, but right now I have literally zero academic or practical knowledge in this field. I’m just at the very beginning of the road.
So let’s take it very slow, step by step, and see if what I have in my mind can actually be implemented or not.
In the long term I came to the conclusion that I should run away from commissions as much as possible and only trade indices. Commissions are deadly in the long run on forex pairs, and fortunately on my broker (Opofinance) the commission on indices is zero per lot, which is a huge edge.
Thank you bro!

I completely agree.
simple chart

Im just reposting a post from my thread here..As I think many members and viewers dont look at all threads.
It is pertinent to this AMT thread And Initial Balance comes from Pete Steidlmayer's development of AMT MP etc,,,


Some useful stats on the 1hour Initial Balance for the ES S&P500 indice futures
and some other timbits

The 1hour initial balance is the period from 930am-1030am in otherwords the first
hours trading activity of the New York Open.

The probability of price breaking out or breaking down from the IB is extremely high.
Some say 70+%... my studies tell me 80-95% of days the IB will break. Keep in mind the
range of the IB is important... From narrow to wide... narrow tends to lead to breakouts and
price hitting IB extensions.. Wider IBs tend to stay more in range or extending to the 127% or
150% level.

The highest probability time for these IB breakouts is 1030am -1130am..This is the Golden Window.
IF price has not broken the IB by 1130am/2hours after the Open the probability of a successful trend days drops significantly.

Single sided Breakouts occur 75-85% of trading days
Dbl sided Breakouts occur 10% of trading days
Full range days occur 5-10% of trading days

On Single sided breakout days price will retrace 10% back within the IB range 70% of the time.
It will retrace 25% of the IB range 40% of the time.

On single sided breakdowns price will retrace 10% back within the IB range 80+% of the time.
It will retrace 25% of the IB range 70% of the time.
It will retrace 50% of the IB range nearly 50% of the time.

Big difference on the short side Hint

When we have a 5minute bar close outside of the IB, regardless of distance from the IB.
Price will hit the 127% extension of the IB 90% of days.
Price will hit the 161.8% extension of the IB 70% of days.

The days of the week all trade differently yet certain days vastly outperform the others.

Breakout Success by Days of the week:

#1 Thursdays by far are the highest probability of a successful BO and trend day
#2 Tuesday ..Quite often Mondays are inside days and Tuesdays generally breaks Mondays range.
#3 Friday Fridays can be hit or miss...think NFP
#4 Wednesday This is often a trap day,,,ex waiting for FOMC Breakouts frequently fail on Weds.
#5 Monday,,, is frequently an Inside day Lowest probability day of a successful IB Breakout


Some other Tidbits or Timbits as we have in Canada

Average daily Volume of the ES is 1.5-1.8 million contracts
RTHs compromise 75-85 % of that volume
Globex is 15-25 % of that volume.
I say this in context of using Volume Profile...Globex volume does matter and its VAH VAL levels etc.
But one needs to always pay attention to NY RTH levels.

And the Micro contracts are a different beast. It can be 50-50 the RTH volume and Globex.
So if your trading Micros my suggestion is use Emini Volume Profile.

Now with Gold futures the Volume is distributed much more evenly across both the GC and MGC contracts during RTH and Globex.

Another tidbit is when using Anchored VWAP trading ES... I always always always have a AVWAP to the prev days NY RTHs...anchored to the 930am NY Open and I Observe those levels going into the next days NY session... of course along with Session weekly etc...

Again its due to the volume... Globex ES is more retail based NY is more institutional thus the difference in volume and importance of NY RTH levels. And another reason why IB levels are pertinent thru Globex

Anyways hope some find some usefulness to the above in some way

Cheers !

Adding to the topic of the IB/Initial Balance
COMEX pit trading hours historically determined the RTHs/thus the IB
For AMT/Market Profile purposes, these "Cash Open" times below are still the critical start of the main daily auction
as it's generally when institutions will begin their trading.

They are normally what starts that particular asset/commodity/instrument Initial Balance period.


Coffee: 8:00 am
Cocoa: 8:00 am
Dollar Index: 8:00 am
Aus dollar: 8:00 am

Copper: 8:10 am
Sugar: 8:10 am

Gold: 8:20 am
30-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
5-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
10-Year Bonds: 8:20 am
Euro: 8:20 am
GBP: 8:20 am
JPY: 8:20 am

Silver: 8:25 am

Crude oil: 9:00 am
Heating oil: 9:00 am
Natural Gas: 9:00 am
Unleaded: 9:00 am

Indices : 9:30 am

Wheat: 9:30 am
Soybeans: 9:30 am
Corn: 9:30 am

Cotton: 10:30 am


For example when trading Gold the IB period is 820-920am NYT
Aussie dollar is 800-900am NYT
Oil is 900-10am NYT

Does it make a difference using these times ? In my view it does..main thing is whatever time you choose stick with a repeatable process .

GBPAUD Short from last week closed earlier today.

How do you determine SL and TP level?

It can vary. TP can either be the next VA or POC or just the next high or low. It depends on each set up.

Can't win 'em all

Hello
CHFJPY
It's a bit difficult; there's a nice trend formation on the H1 chart.
The rejection of the several POC levels of the past few days was to be expected.

USD/CHF
H1
trend trading

GBPCAD
VWAP trading m5

Friends, I'd really appreciate it if anyone has the CVD indicator for MetaTrader 5 with automatic divergence detection—please share it here or send the link. I've searched and downloaded so many, but either they weren't the right ones or they didn't have divergence detection... If someone can add divergence to them so I can post it here... but I think something like that must exist! Why can't I find it?! Thanks to everyone.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...0#post15500180

Hello
Here's the room; with a bit of luck, someone might be able to code it for you according to your wishes.

GBPCHF SHORT
vwap m5 TRADE

BTCUSD

VWAP m5 handel

See video