The Swamp

Overall Thesis – Why This Matters Beyond Florida
Written by Gatorinla
Florida looks a lot like ground zero for the next real estate squeeze. It may not be a copy-and-paste of 2008, but it rhymes: this time the danger is built on high costs and thin margins rather than exotic mortgage products alone.
The chain is simple:

1. Property values are softening.
   1. Condo prices are falling across most of Florida, with some markets down 15–30%.
   2. Key Gulf Coast metros—Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Naples, St. Pete—are already giving back previous gains and are forecast to weaken further.

2. Ownership costs are exploding.
   1. Insurance premiums have risen dramatically in many parts of the state, sometimes several hundred percent over a few years for some homeowners.
   2. HOA fees, especially for condos, are rising to meet stricter reserve and safety requirements.
   3. Construction and repair costs are up due to tougher building codes, material inflation, and reduced cheap labor.

3. Households are stretched thin.
   1. Across the U.S., credit card balances are high, and delinquencies have climbed as interest rates rose.
   2. Families are carrying larger debts at higher rates, with less room for error.

4. Income shock is spreading from layoffs and AI.
   1. Over a million job cuts in a year, concentrated in government, tech, logistics, and retail.
   2. AI is now openly cited as a reason for some layoffs and will likely remove or reshape many white-collar jobs over time.
   3. Even people who keep their jobs feel less secure and pull back on big discretionary spending.

5. Tourism and second homes are the first to get cut.
   1. When times get tight, people do not stop buying food—they stop buying vacations.
   2. Trips to Disney World, Orlando, Tampa, Miami, and beach towns become “optional.”
   3. Canadian snowbirds and overseas visitors cut back too, as their own economies soften and their currencies weaken.

6. Feedback loop into Florida’s housing.
   1. Fewer tourists and seasonal renters hurt local businesses and jobs.
   2. Owners of condos and second homes face higher carrying costs with less rental income and fewer buyers.
   3. As some owners fall behind, short sales and foreclosures rise, putting more pressure on prices and local banks.

A family that bought a $400,000 home that is now worth $370,000, with much higher monthly costs from insurance, HOA fees, and interest, is far more likely to:

1. Tighten all spending,
2. Fall behind on payments, or
3. Walk away from what feels like a money pit.

When this happens often enough in Florida, it does not stay inside Florida’s borders. Banks, builders, insurers, and investors across the country feel the hit. Other Sunbelt markets with similar structures—high temperatures, high growth, and high dependence on cheap money and tourism—can follow the same path.
Each single factor—insurance, HOA fees, credit cards, layoffs, AI, Canadian unemployment—might only shave a few percent off demand. But all together, they point in the same direction: less slack, less resilience, and more risk that a local squeeze in Florida real estate becomes a broader Sunbelt and national problem.
That is the core of this thesis and the story these three maps—property decline, credit and job stress, and the combined “Ground Zero” risk—are meant to show.
– Gatorinla

I got stats to go with it.. More detailed and boring. I left it out.

To your point, many people retired early during covid (earlier than they would had). The influx to Florida drove prices up 50% in that short time. That created a bubble. The retired population is now about to face cuts in Medicare and Medicaid. Along with their current inflated equity dropping. They will be getting service cuts or/and raises in medical cost thanks to "The big Beautiful Fucking". Many will seek a new address. /retirement homes will at a loss for paying patients. Hospitals will be burdened with sicker, older patients with out medical insurance. But like Billy Blank said. "but wait there is more". No matter how you slice it. A big change is coming for the retires.. Hospitals and nursing homes may/will close doors. No business stays open long losing money. Less workers needed means more forecloses. Old people with money leave to a place with better affordable healthcare. More houses hit the saturated market.

I cleaned it up some..


Florida’s Retiree Time Bomb
By Gatorinla
Florida is different from most states because roughly one out of every five residents is retired. That matters when you look at what happened during COVID.
To your point, a huge number of people retired earlier than they planned during the pandemic. They didn’t quit because they were financially ready; they quit because COVID pushed them out of the workforce—health fears, layoffs, burnout, or age discrimination. A lot of them took their smaller-than-planned nest eggs and moved to Florida right as prices were exploding. That wave of early retirees helped drive home prices up 40–50% in just a couple of years, turning Florida into a textbook bubble.
Now those same people are about to get squeezed from both sides:

1. Their inflated home equity is starting to deflate as prices cool.
2. At the same time, they’re staring at potential cuts or cost shifts in Medicare and Medicaid, plus rising premiums and out-of-pocket costs—the “big beautiful bill,” as the politicians like to call it.

So you’ve got a large, aging population that:

1. Paid peak prices for housing,
2. Retired before their savings were truly ready, and
3. Is now facing higher medical costs and thinner coverage.

When that hits, a lot of retirees will go looking for a new address. Retirement homes and assisted-living facilities will be stuck with fewer paying patients and more residents who can’t keep up. Hospitals will be dealing with sicker, older patients with weak or no insurance, and they won’t get fully paid for the care they’re forced to provide.
And like the old infomercial line says: “But wait, there’s more.”
Hospitals and nursing homes are still businesses. If they’re losing money, they cut staff or close doors. Fewer healthcare jobs means more local foreclosures. Older people who still have some savings will leave for states with more affordable healthcare and lower costs. That dumps more houses back onto an already saturated market, pushing prices down further.
Put all of that together and you don’t just have a housing story—you have a retiree, healthcare, and real-estate time bomb, with Florida sitting right on top of it.

Anyway Merry Christmas.

Just know Scrooge, family and friends are filling their sack at your expanse. I know it hard to admit or say you were conned. But its the only way to move on. Your crazy fucking uncle was wrong and now he will pay. If you are the crazy fucking uncle. Enjoy what you built.

As long as this rising channel entact, bull can carry on. Bear would like a retest to 1591 first

Spit-balling here. What would happen to Texas. If the U.S. invaded, and took the oil from a country with more oil than Saudis Arabia? I wonder who the Orange Cancer would give all the contracts to? Does it make sense now? Guess who has decent amounts of rare earth deposits. Ray Charles could see this. The Putin wannabe wants Venezuela for his kids.

I think pa is rising.. weakness 1627/47 may be a buy shorter term. 1606 may be stronger support. I held out for it last week with no luck
big FOMC week

1 adr last week and this week keeps popping up 1692 ish..
above 1660 sustained looks like a b/o. below 1639/34 sustained a drop. The 6h to me said bulls.
At 1692 it may run back to 1659/60.. or attracted to 1647 to.. or at 1659/60 first. If the 12h closes above 1659, that a stronger bullish sign
Buying 1639 ish atm looks good.. But it may not retrace to it.

A nice pop.

Lets see if she sustains above

Its still bullish on the left 5m+.. 1659 supporting don't look bad atm

..clunck

reject. I still want to long near 1606.. Maybe if the 12h closes below 1647 or 53. It don't look promising. But bulls did not keep 59.

she looks to be trying.. but it may run to 47 again too. I may get a shot at 1606 again after all. she looks to be trying.. but it may run to 47 again too.

If I get a long signal 1606 area. I have to buy. My stops will not be deep.

1616 has a chance to support. I just think its larger players seeking 1606 area. 1616 is reasonably close.

If it ends up using 1639/40 as a support later, it may try to b/o break 1659 again. I expect 1737 0r 1749.. for the years end. I may be wrong. Its got the entire month left to do it.. Its only the 8th. So sideways may be the trend. I think 1606 area can be the lower end of a range. I can be wrong about that too.

1.1639/40 is the R bulls need to take back to start. Its also where the bearish b/o was/is. So it can fall here also.

so far it has bounced from 1616.