The Swamp

you may see this off 1636, than up to 1692 and 1 adr.

If it remains above 1606. I think its going up. I cant say 1606 will not be tested again. I know it broke above it 2 days back. Today it has 1636 to possibly protect it.
I think 1737 and 1749 have a year end target. Its only Dec 4. Those 2 can resist too.
Those employment numbers cant be good. That does not favor down. On the other hand a war in Europe don't favor up. But since we have a new sheriff crapping on Ukraine. here we are.

Its getting colder as winter sets in. If the Russian people took back their country this month. Where would the euro go, if Putin was erased? We may walk into this one day. If would be a hell of a gap. Or any other leader removed.

That last pa.. may set up 1652 to bounce to 1692
1652 may become a support.

sadly I didn't take it.. It did hit 1636 on a gap open in IC market,,
I will see if it comes back

It hit the support earlier and bounced.. Today may be opposite. When it runs back to 1670/92.. If unable to sustain and continue above 1677.. It may drop again.. If sustained below 1652 may be bearish.. It may not bounce to 70.. its testing 52 now..

I changed 1672 to 1670.

Its trying to break 1652 in this shot. It may or may not be able this time. Its already been to 1670. If unable to break it. It should return to 1670+. The 12h did suggest it would drop today. So it may get the attraction back to 1670 first. On that attraction, it may set up a new short chance at 1670, or the b/o R area.
It had to break it, and hold below 1652, not just a poke.

ic market shows the gap went to 1636. I had a pending there. but the spread was too wide to hit the entry at roll over.
Another chance may occur. The problem today being 1636 is below the b/o 1652. It would need to recover after. The sustain would need to fail.
The 12 close looks to favor another shot at 1636. It would need to reject bears to work. A fail to sustain below 1652 has a better chance at 1636
1636 has a bounce chance to 1692.

I personally don't see where inflation eased. If inflation is up the may help the usd.. bringing the eu to 1636 or 1606. With it holding below 1652 atm. A short chance may not occur from 1670 atm

1652 held as R this shot.

The attraction to 1670 ends in 3.5 hs. Its just a r area then

I'm on the sideline. If it goes to 1606ish. I will buy. I don't think the s/l needs to be too deep.
I think sentiment will suck, but the inflation may drop it to 1636 or 1606.

Amazing.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/DRqPB...RyNDk1cnUwd3B3

Its Friday, if it don't make a move now to 1672.. It would likely end up back below 1652, and deeper. Just 30 minutes left. The news didn't do much. After the 30 min, the attraction will end. It will lose that pull

I have confluence in the 1606 area.
adr 1618x

Florida is showing cracks like it did in 2007. Florida may be in trouble with high insurance costs, higher taxes, higher HOA fees. The American Dream in Florida looks to be slipping away. Some of it is caused by global warming, like it or not (yeah "global warming is not real", I heard that dumb shit before, and I heard the new dumbshit "man didn't cause it". tell the insurances actuaries this dumbshit), which forces your insurance costs higher. Insurance companies are in business to make money. In some places, insurance has increased in the last decade by 400%.
That, along with the property tax increases and the HOA fees, is crushing people. The higher insurance costs are not only reflected in more powerful storms hitting Florida, but also in the removal or deportation of a lot of construction labor. So now when you get labor, it costs more. Inflation has also caused building materials to rise. And the recent storms have also caused tougher building standards.
All of that together has put people who bought houses in the last two or three years on the edge of losing their homes. They may now owe more than the home is actually worth, because property values normally will depreciate. This will snowball as more and more people become underwater.
When the property you paid, say, $400,000 for is now worth $370,000, on a modest middle-class income that’s a higher percentage of your monthly wages going toward living expenses and housing. Add in the inflation on food and everything else—that puts people underwater and more likely to lose their home or simply walk away from the money pit.
The removed labor from the state—either voluntary or told to leave—also leaves empty spaces that are not rented. In other words, less housing is needed. Pretty much the same signs that started around 2007, last time, before the 2008 housing crisis. Florida is one of those states that may see a reduction in housing values.
Now once these people turn in their keys or lose their homes because they’re unable to pay the notes, these houses all go to banks. The bank keeps a book on these houses, and the banks don’t sell them until after a long legal process of taking the house back, etc., which then allows them to put them back on the market. Usually, even then, the banks hold these houses for years so they don’t flood the market and reduce prices even further.
Meanwhile, these houses sit empty. They’re boarded up, and they become vandalized. The banks have to pay to get the grass cut, pay taxes, HOA fees, and so forth. In other words, it puts a great burden on these banks, and many of them in a saturated local market tend to become insolvent.
At some point, another bank will come in and buy all these houses up from many local banks, and it will be sitting with a large portfolio of hundreds or thousands of houses, or tens of thousands of houses. Meanwhile, these houses are not lived in, and they’re sitting next door to the guy who did everything right, cuts his grass, pays on time. The house the bank owns next door is worth half or less.
This upstanding guy then decides to turn his keys in when he can buy the house next door for half the price.
Anyway, I think you’ll see something like this in the next few months if it accelerates. It would take years to unwind all of this. Meanwhile, more hurricanes will hit, insurance premiums will be higher, and it’s not a good-looking picture.
Have a good weekend. If you think I’m full of shit, do what I did in 2008 on my vacation. I was in Fort Lauderdale. I walked the beach at night and looked at the condominiums and noticed most of them had less than 10 percent of the lights on in the summer, the weekend before the 4th of July. A week or two later, the markets crashed.
If you live in Fort Lauderdale or any beach town, this is not the prime time for that, but if you go walk the beach and you see very few lights on early after dark, beware of what’s coming in the upcoming months. If it takes a year, I’m okay with that too—but it is coming to Florida. Texas, California, Nevada, and Arizona have some cracks too. I didn't include all Gulf, or East coast states.

Seen this anecdotally. Some friends moved to Boca Raton less than 4 years ago. They sold Cali house and took the profits to put kid through Georgetown and buy a smaller FLA home. Their plan was to move back after kid finished school, but got antsy as they noticed properties in neighborhood for sale were sitting on the market for a long time. One of them works in real estate, said the time on market has doubled from last year. They lucked out when a developer bought a property next to theirs with a plan to demo/rebuild. So they offered the guy their house at the same price, all cash non-listing deal. They saved money on fees and essentially broke even. 4 years in a very desirable place, block and a half from the beach, with no appreciation in price.

Florida leads nation with highest foreclosure rate, and the top 3 counties for foreclosure are in Florida.

1. Foreclosure starts, which are the initial phase of the process, rose 6% for the month and were 20% higher than the year before.
2. Completed foreclosures, the final phase, were up 32% year over year.
3. Florida, South Carolina and Illinois led the nation in state foreclosure filings.

To me, looking at the data, alarm bells should be ringing. No one's really talking about it, just whistling past the graveyard.

What I did was basic.. I have another coming with what tariffs/deportation/layoffs will do coming. Its much less rosy on Florida housing prices. Even Naples and Miami. When you have a tourist state, less tourist mean less money. The Orange guy was the nail in the coffin.
I looked at Florida credit card defaults and late. They are bright red. Meaning they are eating/house note with the credit card. When those get cut off more defaults and food banks empty. The peasants will be protesting at the Orange home
CC trouble over the entire country is reddening.. Less discretionary spending affect tourism greater. It turns out Florida needed Canada and the other visitors worldwide too. It all adds up to a 2008 type reduction in prices. Like the famers, its not welfare when your on the receiving end. Only when its the other guy.
The sad part is, food stamps directly helped the farmers. When it was not famers using them. Now that the farmers need them to eat. Its harder to get them

I have have watched the cycles before. When the credit cards are starting to max. Less people are visiting places like Florida/Nevada less. Texas has cracks too. Those new congressional districts. May dilute the GOP enough to bite them on the ass. I think they fucked-up. I don't think its a sure thing. People tend to hurt themselves with over levering. In this case instead of them giving the people advice. They should of no overleveraged themselves. After 1929 it took them a while to get back in the seat.
I'm trying to make a Florida map and thesis with world, national and local Florida info to show the decline.

The lowest in 30 years