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FXTradepro: Strategy using a “Semi-Martingale” Position Sizing

  • #121
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:05pm Aug 20, 2007 11:05pm
FXTradepro,

Do you trade this system full-time? Also, which brokers do you use?
  • #122
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:09pm Aug 20, 2007 11:09pm
HI Kermut,
I think you will find this method will return exceptional profits if you get your entry part of the strategy plan correct.

Reason:
1/ Dan has already stated that he is doing between 4-10 trades per week using this method. This seems very realistic to me.
2/ He also stated that he averages a close in profit after 8 trade sequences of his martingale risk management system. This also sounds very realistic to me.

So at 8th close he will make $190 per trade and if you assume an average number of trades per week as 7 (half his range mentioned above) = $1330 per week.

This equates to $69,160 per annum!!!!!

Now if you are a risk freak you may choose to trade this approach with a 400:1 leverage which means you will need $47,525 per standard account.
This gives you a net return of 145% per annum.

If you choose to trade this approach with a 200:1 leverage which means you will need $63,900 per standard account.
This gives you a net return of 108% per annum.

If you choose to trade this approach with a 100:1 leverage which means you will need $96,650 per standard account.
This gives you a net return of 72% per annum.

Please explain why you consider these as 'modest' returns.....???

Tim
PS All this information has been provided by Dan.... when you piece it together like this, I think his trading plan and returns are excellent.
  • #123
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:12pm Aug 20, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting jones247
FXTradepro,

Do you trade this system full-time? Also, which brokers do you use?

I Trade Full-Time - about 90% this system and a bit of scalping/short term Trading, mostly for kicks. I also have other sources of income but I make the vast majority of my Living Trading FX. I am not sure if I am able to discuss which Brokers I use but if you email me I would be happy to share some information.

Regards,

Dan
  • #124
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:23pm Aug 20, 2007 11:23pm
Since the discussion seems to have turned to Profits and Returns, I would like to caution readers that whatever claims anyone makes on these Public Forums (myself included) should be taken "with a grain of salt".

The best way for people to understand the potential of this is to Trade the System on Demo at first, and then on a "smallish" Mini/Micro Account with a suitable Broker. Only over time can one really establish was can be done. I have Traded and "tweaked" this Strategy for some time and have found what I feel is a good way to Trade that fits my personality and goals.

As I stated in my first Post - "The FXTradepro Forex Trading Strategy will not make anyone a millionaire overnight or provide the ridiculously high annual returns that many Traders are hoping for, however, I have been able to make consistent gains using a method that I AM COMFORTABLE with."

Dan
  • #125
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:31pm Aug 20, 2007 11:31pm
Quoting FXTradepro
kermut.......The problem with most people wanting to get into Trading the FX Market is that many think they can Trade for Living starting with very Small Accounts. Perhaps some can. I have not been able to accomplish that. True, I am not boasting about 1% a day or more as many systems claim, however, in any other Market annual returns of 50%-100% would be considered fantastic.

Also, there are ways to trade this Strategy/Method with alternate Lot Sizing, a smaller Account and Larger Profits but there is MORE RISK in doing so. One could change the parameters so that a Sequence of Trades does not last as long as the 24 Levels I am discussing and work out calculations that are acceptable to them.

Just my opinion........And thanks for your contributions.

Dan

Totally agree with you Dan. I was infact one of them. thought I could start with 5K and make that into 100k (absolutely possible, over a longer period of time) quickly and then just trade full time off the resultant profits. Lol, like they say, "If only I knew then what I know now". It is like anything new, got to either learn the hard way, or from the mistakes of others. Usually it is the hard way, as can't relate to the mistake until it is personally made.

You are correct, making variations to get a bigger return, would entail more risk, and in this business, risk = reward. I love auslanco's quote " a person who enters the market 10 times to make his 100pips" has more risk than the person who enters the market once to make his 100pips. Quite correct to an extent. Trading is so dynamic and fluid, there is a timeframe and a system for every personality. It is just a matter of being honest with oneself and deciding what sort of personality you are. It has been said time and time again, systems don't make the equity curve grow, the trader does. I guess, one thing that could be incorporated into the trade management is a trailing stop, or close partial position at 40 pips and bring the remainder to a net positive pip position such that if it is hit, it will still yield a profit greater than the loss. But this is all something that a individual trader would have to experiment with.

I like this system, but feel it would be more suited to a larger account size, with modest returns. I know traders make more than 100%/yr every year. And they are not all using the same strategy!!

Still looking forward to using your ea in the near future.

Regards,
K.
  • #126
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:39pm Aug 20, 2007 11:39pm
Quoting kermut
Totally agree with you Dan. I was infact one of them. thought I could start with 5K and make that into 100k (absolutely possible, over a longer period of time) quickly and then just trade full time off the resultant profits. Lol, like they say, "If only I knew then what I know now". It is like anything new, got to either learn the hard way, or from the mistakes of others. Usually it is the hard way, as can't relate to the mistake until it is personally made.

You are correct, making variations to get a bigger return, would entail more risk, and in this business, risk = reward. I love auslanco's quote " a person who enters the market 10 times to make his 100pips" has more risk than the person who enters the market once to make his 100pips. Quite correct to an extent. Trading is so dynamic and fluid, there is a timeframe and a system for every personality. It is just a matter of being honest with oneself and deciding what sort of personality you are. It has been said time and time again, systems don't make the equity curve grow, the trader does. I guess, one thing that could be incorporated into the trade management is a trailing stop, or close partial position at 40 pips and bring the remainder to a net positive pip position such that if it is hit, it will still yield a profit greater than the loss. But this is all something that a individual trader would have to experiment with.

I like this system, but feel it would be more suited to a larger account size, with modest returns. I know traders make more than 100%/yr every year. And they are not all using the same strategy!!

Still looking forward to using your ea in the near future.

Regards,
K.

Intelligent comments kermut.....I'm glad you came aboard.


Dan
  • #127
  • Edited 11:43pm Aug 20, 2007 11:42pm | Edited 11:43pm
Quoting FXTradepro
Since the discussion seems to have turned to Profits and Returns, I would like to caution readers that whatever claims anyone makes on these Public Forums (myself included) should be taken "with a grain of salt".

The best way for people to understand the potential of this is to Trade the System on Demo at first, and then on a "smallish" Mini/Micro Account with a suitable Broker. Only over time can one really establish was can be done. I have Traded and "tweaked" this Strategy for some time and have found what I feel is a good way to Trade that fits my personality and goals.

As I stated in my first Post - "The FXTradepro Forex Trading Strategy will not make anyone a millionaire overnight or provide the ridiculously high annual returns that many Traders are hoping for, however, I have been able to make consistent gains using a method that I AM COMFORTABLE with."

Dan
I apologize Dan, it seems that I may have contributed to this thread taking a course that you did not intend it to. Since I actually do like this trade management system, I shall not post on any other tangents and concentrate on the actual system itself.

Ok, now lets get back on track and make some pips!!!

Regards,
K.
  • #128
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:47pm Aug 20, 2007 11:47pm
Quoting kermut
I apologize Dan, it seems that I may have contributed to this thread taking a course that you did not intend it to. Since I actually do like this trade management system, I shall not post on any other tangents and concentrate on the actual system itself.

Ok, now lets get back on track and make some pips!!!

Regards,
K.
No Problem kermut........Your comments are well thought out and appreciated.

Dan
  • #129
  • Aug 20, 2007 11:58pm Aug 20, 2007 11:58pm
What would be a less risky position... GBP/USD with a SL-10 & TP-40, or GBP/JPY with a SL-20 & TP-80 or GBP/JPY with a SL-30 & TP-120. Although they're all on a 1:4 ratio, I assume you may have a feel for the number of sequences before a break-out occurs. I assume that the spread simply reduces the TP accordingly (for example, with a TP of 80, having a spread of 9 pips, then the net profit would be 71 pips minus the SL sequences)...
  • #130
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:03am Aug 21, 2007 12:03am
Hi FXTradepro can you tell me who your programmer is i have a system that has to be programmed so pls send the details to my pm

leon
  • #131
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:24am Aug 21, 2007 12:24am
Quoting jones247
What would be a less risky position... GBP/USD with a SL-10 & TP-40, or GBP/JPY with a SL-20 & TP-80 or GBP/JPY with a SL-30 & TP-120. Although they're all on a 1:4 ratio, I assume you may have a feel for the number of sequences before a break-out occurs. I assume that the spread simply reduces the TP accordingly (for example, with a TP of 80, having a spread of 9 pips, then the net profit would be 71 pips minus the SL sequences)...

jones247..........I don't trade GBP/JPY so it is difficult for me to respond to your question. I use the 40/10 set-up on 7 pairs, as I indicated in a previous Post, because this is what has worked for me and also I know, based upon the Average Daily Range, that I will normally be out of the Trade in a few hours to a day at most. All of this is based upon entering under the conditions I like, of course. I never enter blindly.

I am not sure that I am following your question about the Spread reducing the TP or if that even needs to be a concern. You might take a look at the FXTradepro Manager Calculator that I Posted earlier and run some of the numbers on GBPJPY if you are interested in that Pair. Another good idea would be to run the EA on GBPJPY on a Demo Account using the various parameters that you mention and see what you can determine by WATCHING. Experience is the best teacher in my opinion and there are no real shortcuts. Remember to use the Calculator to assist you in determining Lot Sizing and Account Size and let me know if I can help.

Regards,

Dan
  • #132
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:36am Aug 21, 2007 12:36am
Ive read the entire thread, and find aspects of this method very positive. I did download and run the EA, on EURAUD and the first trade ran 12 stops before a margin call happened. That was my fault, for not being able to pick entries.

Right now (asian session) there seems to be a lot of consolidation, so i guess its not a good time to start using this method.
  • #133
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:52am Aug 21, 2007 12:52am
Quoting easyforex
Ive read the entire thread, and find aspects of this method very positive. I did download and run the EA, on EURAUD and the first trade ran 12 stops before a margin call happened. That was my fault, for not being able to pick entries.

Right now (asian session) there seems to be a lot of consolidation, so i guess its not a good time to start using this method.
You need to review everything again....If you got a Margin call at the 12th level then your Account was not large enough. These are important concepts so don't take any shortcuts. Consolidation can be ok so long as you set the Initial Entry OUTSIDE of the consolidation. Reread everything....

Dan
  • #134
  • Aug 21, 2007 12:58am Aug 21, 2007 12:58am
Quoting easyforex
Ive read the entire thread, and find aspects of this method very positive. I did download and run the EA, on EURAUD and the first trade ran 12 stops before a margin call happened. That was my fault, for not being able to pick entries.

Right now (asian session) there seems to be a lot of consolidation, so i guess its not a good time to start using this method.
Easyforex,

What is the spread on eur/aud. From memory on mt4, it is usually more than 5 pips. As stated earlier, the entire sequence is based on pairs with spread less than 5 pips. Anything higher, would require lot size to be re-calculated.

Cheers,
K.
  • #135
  • Aug 21, 2007 8:08am Aug 21, 2007 8:08am
Quoting FXTradepro
jones247..........I don't trade GBP/JPY so it is difficult for me to respond to your question. I use the 40/10 set-up on 7 pairs, as I indicated in a previous Post, because this is what has worked for me and also I know, based upon the Average Daily Range, that I will normally be out of the Trade in a few hours to a day at most. All of this is based upon entering under the conditions I like, of course. I never enter blindly.

I am not sure that I am following your question about the Spread reducing the TP or if that even needs to be a concern. You might take a look at the FXTradepro Manager Calculator that I Posted earlier and run some of the numbers on GBPJPY if you are interested in that Pair. Another good idea would be to run the EA on GBPJPY on a Demo Account using the various parameters that you mention and see what you can determine by WATCHING. Experience is the best teacher in my opinion and there are no real shortcuts. Remember to use the Calculator to assist you in determining Lot Sizing and Account Size and let me know if I can help.

Regards,

Dan
Thanks, Dan...
  • #136
  • Aug 21, 2007 11:54am Aug 21, 2007 11:54am
To further clarify how I trade this System - Here is a Trade that I set-up last night which triggered and closed in profit overnight.


EURUSD - at around 11 PM EST last night I set the EA to enter using the PRICE ENTRY option, setting the price parameter to 1.3459 to start a Sequence Of Trades with a BUY Entry - 1.3459 looked to me like a SUPPORT Area.

The EA opened the BUY Entry once 1.3459 was reached at 5:29 AM EST and the Initial Entry was filled.

The Sequence closed in Profit on the INITIAL Entry at 6:59 AM

Initial Entry - .10 Lots - TP hit at +40 Pips Gain = +$40.
NET GAIN = +$40.

http://aycu33.webshots.com/image/230...6878257_rs.jpg
  • #137
  • Aug 21, 2007 6:44pm Aug 21, 2007 6:44pm
It seems a bit quiet on this Thread today. Does anyone have any questions?

If things remain quiet I will likely close the thread, so let me know what you think.

Dan
  • #138
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:05pm Aug 21, 2007 7:05pm
if you close this thread how will we get the current version of your EA? i love it! I'm continuing to demoing and eventually go live. Will there be an EA version with no time limit?
  • #139
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:12pm Aug 21, 2007 7:12pm
Quoting criss73
if you close this thread how will we get the current version of your EA? i love it! I'm continuing to demoing and eventually go live. Will there be an EA version with no time limit?
I was just getting cranky criss.....Not gonna close it. If you are interested in some more in depth discussion email me or PM me.

Thanks,

Dan
  • #140
  • Aug 21, 2007 7:25pm Aug 21, 2007 7:25pm
the ea work like a charm. We have nothing to say exclude thanks for all the nice work you have done. You answer question rapidly with an well detailed explanation.
Personally
I set the ea to open a trade each night just before london open on eur/usd and I trade usd/jpy when I see an good oportunity
.
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