Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

JP 225 forecast: the index resumes growth

The JP 225 stock index has bounced off the support level within an uptrend. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan's inflation rose 3.00% year-on-year in October 2025
2. Market impact: moderately negative for the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s core Consumer Price Index showed an annual increase of 3.0%, in line with the forecast and slightly above the previous 2.9%. For the market, this indicates that inflation remains above the Bank of Japan’s 2.0% target but is not accelerating more than expected. In other words, the economy is no longer stuck in chronic deflation, but we also see no signs of runaway inflation that would force the regulator to sharply tighten policy.

For the JP 225 index, the impact is mixed as it includes many export-oriented companies, for which the key factors are the yen’s exchange rate and borrowing costs. If the market decides that with this level of inflation, the Bank of Japan may afford to slightly raise rates or further loosen its yield-curve control, this could strengthen the yen.

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Falling inflation in Germany breaks EURUSD forecasts

The euro, attempting to regain lost ground, has slowed its upward momentum, with the EURUSD pair trading near 1.1580. Find out more in our analysis for 28 November 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 0.3%, projected at -0.2%
2. Markets await the Fed’s interest rate decision
3. EURUSD forecast for 28 November 2025: 1.1540

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD forecast takes into account that today the euro, after attempting to regain lost ground, is forming a correction, with the pair trading near 1.1580.

Germany’s Consumer Price Index reflects changes in the cost of goods and services for consumers, helping to assess purchasing trends and the degree of economic stagnation. A lower-than-expected reading will have a negative impact on the European currency.

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDCAD hits a four-week low after strong GDP

The USDCAD pair dipped to 1.3980 as the market fully priced in strong Canadian data. Discover more in our analysis for 1 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: the USDCAD pair fell to a four-week low after Canada’s GDP release
2. Current trend: the Canadian dollar appears strong thanks to active oil exports
3. USDCAD forecast for 1 December 2025: 1.3937

Fundamental analysis

The USDCAD rate fell to a four-week low after stronger-than-expected quarterly GDP data. These figures reduced expectations of additional easing from the Bank of Canada. Over the past week, the CAD gained about 0.9%, marking its best performance since May.

The recent weakening of the US dollar also supports demand for the CAD, as markets are betting on a Fed rate cut in December.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index resumed growth but correction risk remains high

US 500 has shifted into an uptrend, but the likelihood of a slight pullback remains high. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US manufacturing PMI for November came in at 52.2
2. Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The US manufacturing PMI in the latest release came in at 52.2 points versus a forecast of 51.9 and the previous reading of 52.5. This means the manufacturing sector remains in expansion territory (readings above 50.0 indicate growth), but the pace of expansion slowed slightly compared to the previous month. At the same time, the higher-than-expected reading suggests that business conditions are somewhat better than the market anticipated.

For the US 500, the impact is cautiously positive. Since the index includes industrial, technology, and consumer companies, a moderately strong PMI supports the soft landing narrative: the economy continues to grow, but without excessive acceleration that could force the Fed back into tightening. Within the index, stocks of real-sector companies sensitive to manufacturing activity may perform slightly better under such conditions.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

The market holds its breath: one report can change the fate of USDJPY

Positive US fundamental data may trigger a rally in USDJPY towards 157.50. Discover more in our analysis for 3 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Japan’s services PMI in Japan: previously at 53.1, currently at 53.2
2. US services PMI: previously at 54.8, currently at 55.0
3. ADP US nonfarm employment change: previously at 42 thousand, currently at 7 thousand
4. USDJPY forecast for 3 December 2025: 154.85 and 157.50

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for 3 December 2025 considers that the USDJPY pair continues its correction, trading near 155.80.

Japan’s services PMI covers multiple industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, information technologies, hospitality, and food services.

The USDJPY forecast for today appears moderately optimistic for the Japanese yen, with the PMI up to 53.2 from 53.1 previously. At the moment, the PMI is above the 50.0 threshold, which may add support to the yen.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

Brent prices stuck in a sideways range

Brent quotes show moderate growth, rising to the 63.00 USD area despite an increase in US crude oil inventories according to EIA data. Discover more in our analysis for 4 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: US crude oil inventories rose by 0.57 million barrels last week
2. Current trend: moving within a sideways range
3. Brent forecast for 4 December 2025: 65.00 or 61.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices climbed to 63.00 USD per barrel on Thursday, extending gains from the previous session. The move was supported by Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and stalled peace negotiations, which reduced expectations of a recovery in Russian supply.

The US has also increased threats against Venezuela’s oil sector, adding to the geopolitical risk premium. However, crude prices remain capped by weak demand and potential oversupply. This is confirmed by EIA data showing a 0.57 million barrel increase in US crude inventories last week, along with rising gasoline and distillate stocks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

Gold enters a new rally phase, XAUUSD may soar towards 4,300 USD

With markets awaiting US economic data and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, XAUUSD may test the 4,300 USD level. Discover more in our analysis for 5 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. US core PCE price index: previously at 2.9%, projected at 2.9%
2. Markets await the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025: 4,300

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price forecast shows that gold is undergoing a correction, with prices currently trading near 4,210 USD per ounce. The core PCE price index is a key inflation gauge in the US, tracking changes in prices for goods and services excluding food and energy. It reflects underlying inflation trends and serves as the primary benchmark for monetary policy decisions. The core PCE helps measure real consumer purchasing power and overall economic stability, as it is less affected by short-term volatility.

The XAUUSD forecast for 5 December 2025 assumes that the index may remain unchanged at 2.9%. However, it should be noted that this is only a forecast value, and the situation will become clear only after the actual data is published. A weaker-than-expected result would negatively impact the US dollar and trigger XAUUSD growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index continues to rise, with conditions for a new all-time high in place

The DE 40 stock index has formed a strong uptrend, which may enter a correction after reaching a new all-time high. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s factory orders grew by 1.5% m/m
2. Market impact: this data creates a mixed background for German equities

Fundamental analysis

Factory orders in Germany increased by 1.5% m/m, far exceeding expectations of 0.3%, although slowing from the previous 2.0%. For the market, this is a signal that the industrial sector remains active: companies continue to receive new orders, meaning future revenue and capacity utilisation. The result is significantly better than forecast, so it is a positive surprise for the stock market, despite a slight slowdown compared to the previous month.

For the DE 40 index, such data is a supportive factor. Strong orders typically push index futures higher and create a favourable backdrop for growth on the day of the release, especially if external news from the US or China does not interfere. Within the index, movement will likely be uneven: the strongest contribution to growth may come from major industrial and export-oriented companies – the core of the German economy.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index is once again heading towards a new all-time high

The US 500 may enter a correction, but the medium-term uptrend remains intact. The US 500 forecast for today is negative.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US core PCE came in at 2.8% year-on-year
2. Market impact: these figures are generally positive for the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The published core PCE figure came in at 2.8% year-on-year, below the forecast of 2.9% and the previous reading of 2.9%. For the market, this is an important signal, as the core PCE remains the Federal Reserve’s key inflation gauge. The decline shows that inflationary pressure continues to ease, reducing the need for the Fed to maintain a tight monetary stance and increasing the likelihood of a more dovish rate path in the coming months.

For the US 500, such data is a moderately positive factor. The market reaction is likely to tilt upwards, as expectations of further easing in inflation reduce uncertainty around the Fed’s decisions. However, the rise is unlikely to be sharp: the figure declined by only 0.1 percentage point, and inflation is already close to the range the Fed considers sustainable.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

GBPUSD holds above 1.3300 ahead of the Fed decision

The GBPUSD pair has stabilised above 1.3300 ahead of today’s Federal Reserve rate decision. Discover more in our analysis for 10 December 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: the market expects the Fed to lower rates by 25 basis points today
2. Current trend: moderate upward momentum
3. GBPUSD forecast for 10 December 2025: 1.3400 and 1.3250

Fundamental analysis

Today, market participants expect the Federal Reserve to deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut. Investors will also focus on comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who may take a cautious stance regarding further policy easing amid persistent inflationary pressures.

Expectations for next week’s Bank of England rate decision remain largely unchanged, with the likelihood of a rate cut around 84%, despite signs of accelerating wage growth in the UK.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index continues to rise

The JP 225 equity index trades within a narrow corridor between resistance and support. The forecast for JP 225 today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s GDP contracted by 0.60% quarter-on-quarter
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s GDP decreased by -0.6% quarter-on-quarter, which came in weaker than forecasts and significantly below the previous expansion. The result shows a clear slowdown in economic activity: consumer spending, investment and exports all weakened. This increases investors’ concerns about the pace of economic recovery and the resilience of corporate profits. For Japan’s equity market, such numbers act as a restraining factor. Market participants usually treat a weak GDP print as a signal of elevated risks for companies.

JP 225 faces short-term pressure due to concerns about economic momentum. However, further dynamics depend on the stance of the Bank of Japan. If the regulator signals a readiness to support the economy, this could limit the index’s decline and soften the negative effect.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

EURUSD surges above 1.1700

The EURUSD rate has risen above the 1.1700 level. The euro received support from the Fed’s rate cut and slowing inflation in the eurozone. Details — in our analysis for 12 December 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: Germany’s consumer inflation for November remained at 2.3%
2. Current trend: an upward impulse is observed
3. EURUSD forecast for 12 December 2025: 1.1800 or 1.1650

Fundamental analysis

The US Federal Reserve implemented an expected 25-basis-point rate cut, while simultaneously signaling a likely pause in January as policymakers await additional data to assess the economic outlook.

Meanwhile, investors have reduced expectations for further policy easing by the ECB after officials indicated that additional rate cuts may not be necessary in 2026.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index reached its target level and corrected

The DE 40 stock index has corrected, but the support level has held and the trend remains upward. The DE 40 forecast for today is positive.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s CPI declined by 0.2% m/m
2. Market impact: the data creates a mixed backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany reported a monthly CPI change of -0.2% m/m. The figure matched market expectations (-0.2%) but was significantly lower than the previous reading (+0.3%). In practical terms, this indicates a short-term decline in consumer prices and easing inflationary pressure compared with the previous month. For the German equity market, the key transmission channel is expectations for interest rates and bond yields. Lower inflation generally reduces the likelihood that the euro area will need to maintain high interest rates for an extended period.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent: prices fall to support at 60.00 USD

Brent prices have dropped toward the 60.00 USD area amid peace talks on Ukraine and concerns over excess oil supply in global markets. Details — in our analysis for 16 December 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: today the market awaits US employment data for November
2. Current trend: a downward move is observed
3. Brent forecast for 16 December 2025: 58.50 or 64.00

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are declining, falling toward the psychologically important 60.00 USD level, supported by renewed negotiations over a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.

On Monday, US officials signaled that an agreement between Russia and Ukraine is closer than ever, as Washington has agreed to provide security guarantees to Kyiv, although territorial issues remain unresolved.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY: the pair has risen above 155.00

USDJPY is showing an upward correction, rising above the 155.00 level after mixed US employment data. Details — in our analysis for 17 December 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: US unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021
2. Current trend: an upward correction is underway
3. USDJPY forecast for 17 December 2025: 156.00 or 154.35

Fundamental analysis

US labor market data for November showed that the unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, although job growth slightly exceeded expectations. Markets currently estimate the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its January meeting at around 75%.

Investors are preparing for the Bank of Japan meeting scheduled for this week. The central bank is expected to raise its interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75% on Friday. Market attention will be focused on comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda after the meeting, as they may provide guidance on the regulator’s monetary policy outlook for the coming year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index entered a downward trend

The JP 225 stock index shifted into a downward trend after falling by 4.5%. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan Industrial Production MoM increased by 1.5%
2. Market impact: the effect for the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Japan Industrial Production MoM printed at +1.5% for the month, compared with a forecast of +1.4%, following +2.6% in the previous month. This means industrial output grew slightly faster than expected, although the pace of growth slowed compared with the prior period. Rising production usually signals stronger order inflows, higher capacity utilisation, and an improved chance for companies to deliver solid revenue and profit growth in the coming quarters.

For the JP 225 index, the current data is generally positive. The index includes many large companies linked to industry, technology, supply chains, and exports. For these firms, higher production signals that demand and output remain intact, meaning the baseline profit outlook stays relatively healthy. This can support the index, especially if there is no simultaneous deterioration in orders or foreign trade data.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD loses ground ahead of the regulator’s minutes release

The AUDUSD rate has resumed its decline amid investor uncertainty over the RBA’s next policy steps. The current quote is 0.6604. Details — in our analysis for 19 December 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The Australian dollar remains under pressure ahead of the release of the RBA’s December meeting minutes
2. The market is looking for signals on the future direction of monetary policy
3. AUDUSD forecast for 19 December 2025: 0.6515

Fundamental analysis

The AUDUSD rate resumed its decline after yesterday’s corrective rebound. The currency pair is moving lower as part of the implementation of a Head and Shoulders reversal pattern, with the nearest downside target located in the 0.6530 area.

The Australian dollar remains under pressure ahead of the publication of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s December meeting. Market participants are hoping to obtain clearer signals regarding the future outlook for monetary policy. The document, due to be released next week, is expected to reveal the nature of the board’s discussions on the possibility of policy tightening, as well as the regulator’s level of concern about inflation risks.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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USDCAD: the pair attempts an upside reversal

USDCAD has halted its decline and is attempting to reverse higher, having received buyer support near the 1.3730 area. Details — in our analysis for 22 December 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: Retail sales in Canada rose by 1.2% in November
2. Current trend: an upward correction is observed
3. USDCAD forecast for 22 December 2025: 1.3730 and 1.3870

Fundamental analysis

According to data released on Friday, retail sales in Canada increased by 1.2% month-on-month in November 2025. This marked the strongest growth in five months, rebounding after a 0.2% decline in October.

Meanwhile, oil prices are attempting to recover as markets assess the risk of additional U.S. sanctions against Russia and potential supply disruptions linked to the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers. These factors provide support for Canadian oil exporters.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
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New XAUUSD high: U.S. macro data weighs on the dollar

The U.S. dollar continues to lose ground against gold, with XAUUSD setting another record after testing the 4,497 USD level. Details — in our analysis for 23 December 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. U.S. GDP Q3: previous value — 3.8%, forecast — 3.2%
2. U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index: previous value — 88.7, forecast — 83.4
3. Current trend: moving upwards
4. XAUUSD forecast for 23 December 2025: 4,550 or 4,440

Fundamental analysis

Today’s XAUUSD price outlook shows that gold continues its upward trend. At this stage, prices have updated another all-time high and are trading around the 4,480 USD per ounce level.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) represents the total value of all goods and services produced in a country, calculated based on final output without including the cost of raw materials.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

BoE interest rate and weak USD: triggers for GBPUSD growth

Rising unemployment in the US is putting pressure on the USD. Against this backdrop, GBPUSD may continue to rise toward the 1.3590 area. Details — in our analysis for 24 December 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Primary Jobless Claims in the US: previous value — 224K, forecast — 227K
2. Current trend: moving upwards
3. GBPUSD forecast for 24 December 2025: 1.3590 and 1.3472

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD forecast for December 17, 2025 is favorable for the British pound, as prices have strong potential for further growth following a minor correction.

US Initial Jobless Claims show the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator reflects labor market conditions, and an increase signals rising unemployment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team