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Never Lose Again

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 20, 2025 3:13am Nov 20, 2025 3:13am
All right, all right, all right, here we go again, well, not doing a trading system ever again, but if you ask nicely, I can give clues how to do this.

The thread title is a huge reminder for me, keep focus, stick to the plan, it can be done!

I was going to wait until 100 trades but as it's looking good, let's make a start. I have completed 2 weeks, data below.

This a swing trade method, based on breakouts of last week's high or low, generally with the prevailing trend.

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All the usual, basic risk management criteria apply, e.g. never risk more than 2% per position, use Risk to Reward of 1 to 1 or 1 to 2 and higher when conditions allow.

Let's go.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #2
  • Nov 20, 2025 3:23am Nov 20, 2025 3:23am
Quoting Erebus
All right, all right, all right, here we go again, well, not doing a trading system ever again, but if you ask nicely, I can give clues how to do this. The thread title is a huge reminder for me, keep focus, stick to the plan, it can be done! I was going to wait until 100 trades but as it's looking good, let's make a start. I have completed 2 weeks, data below. This a swing trade method, based on breakouts of last week's high or low, generally with the prevailing trend. {image} {image} All the usual, basic risk management criteria apply, e.g. never...
Ahh… an Erebus special on the cards, will be checking in.

To save 10 pages of the same questions, where’s the EA, Indicator, will they repaint and what’s for sale??

Now that’s out the way good luck mate
  • #3
  • Nov 20, 2025 4:51am Nov 20, 2025 4:51am
Quoting moodybot
{quote} Ahh… an Erebus special on the cards, will be checking in. To save 10 pages of the same questions, where’s the EA, Indicator, will they repaint and what’s for sale?? Now that’s out the way good luck mate
Welcome, and thanks for your interest.

Okay, let's go with the FAQ's

1. EA - not required, method is so slow, you can't miss an entry.

2. Indicators - some, but they mainly show where the PRICE is, so more of a utility really.

3. Repaint - no, never happen, unless your broker is that shonky and will manipulate the actual PRICE.

4. Selling - just common sense, logic, price action

Trade analysis for entry:

1. Establish a weekly bias.

2. Plot the previous weekly high and low.

3. Enter at break or above / below those levels.

4. Stop Loss at recent swing point. Calculate position size according risk plan and stop loss distance.

5. Take Profit initial set at 1 to 1, move daily IF trade progresses, using daily ADR targets.

6. Manual intervention at trader's discretion. Always protect yourself.

7. All positions closed by Friday close of trading day.


Here are the 2 best results, one from each week, all the details are there, click on the chart to open larger size in a new tab to make reading easier. And don't forget to check for photocopy skills!

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Bring on more questions, comments, complaints, suggestions, criticisms, praise, etc.

PS: Trade Explorer has been added for reference and fact checking.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #4
  • Nov 20, 2025 4:44pm Nov 20, 2025 4:44pm
According to my logic thus far, there would be no trades on gold on the higher timeframes for this week.
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The indicator used is found here ->

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15470727

Be sure to thank fellow Aussie jeanlouie - find all his content here ->

https://www.forexfactory.com/jeanlouie

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #5
  • Nov 20, 2025 4:58pm Nov 20, 2025 4:58pm
And when you trade Gold, you should also watch the US Dollar / DXY.

Here we see that weekly bias was down but reversed from the start of the week and continued; should bode well for the US cross pairs, that how I use that information.

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #6
  • Nov 23, 2025 9:38am Nov 23, 2025 9:38am
Hi Erebus,

nice thread! I like your approach since it is easy to focus and follow. First I wish you good luck with your approach. I like breakouts too, especially on higher time frames, since there is less noise and less stop hunting.The big moves will cover many losses. I have a few questions to your approach since I think about to follow your approach and to make a own test:

  1. Do you enter directly at the break or do you zoom in maybe to h1 or M15 and do you observe there the price before you enter?
  2. Stop Loss at recent swing point: Can you make an example? Why I ask is: Often at the end of a trending week there is only a very small last swing point. The sl at this point would be most likely taken out next week after the break of the high or low. So what is in your eyes a save last swing point?
  3. You worte: Take Profit initial set at 1 to 1, move daily IF trade progresses, using daily ADR targets. I dont understand how you do this. If I set tp at 1:1, than price moves in my favour at which point do you move your tp further away before it hits 1:1?
  4. Do you think it would be wise to open always 2 positions and close one at 1:1 risk or higher and let than the second one run to not miss big runners?

Thank you again for your great idea, and all the best for your journal! I will follow you closely.

  • #7
  • Nov 23, 2025 6:50pm Nov 23, 2025 6:50pm
Quoting kleybenny
Hi Erebus, nice thread! I like your approach since it is easy to focus and follow. First I wish you good luck with your approach. I like breakouts too, especially on higher time frames, since there is less noise and less stop hunting.The big moves will cover many losses. I have a few questions to your approach since I think about to follow your approach and to make a own test: Do you enter directly at the break or do you zoom in maybe to h1 or M15 and do you observe there the price before you enter? Stop Loss at recent swing point: Can you make...
Thanks for the interest. As I mentioned in the 1st post, not presenting this as a system with hard entries, someone will shout EA immediately. Therefore, we must use individual discretion to judge who, when, where, and how to enter. We know the WHY.

1. About entry, much is covered in Post # 3 - https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...7#post15478257 and you can see there are multiple times that both of those trades can be entered at those levels, sometimes it depends on the trader's time zone and opportunity. But yes, of course, I do look at lower time frames, currency strength, what day it is, what session it is, any news, many variables can apply.

2. If and when there is not obvious swing point for stop loss, I will just go with the Take Profit target and the initial 1 to 1 will give the SL.

3. Keep watching and I will point this out during this week's trades; hint, you need an ADR indicator.

4. No, not much on multiple positions, keeping it simple, if you win 5 trades at 1% you have beat most traders for the week already.

Hope that helps, stay tuned.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #8
  • Nov 24, 2025 11:55pm Nov 24, 2025 11:55pm
Wow, 22-hours without power, and I didn't miss anything in the market, amazing, usually it leaves without me!

EURJPY has the most move on weekly range at 59% and it's still stuck in the middle, as are most pairs, patience, might be all inside weeks.
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  • #9
  • Nov 25, 2025 12:12am Nov 25, 2025 12:12am
On second look thru the pairs, seems GBP is gaining strength about 6 am London, and GBPCHF is breaking out.

Here is how I set this up, target the daily range high, 50 pips, and that makes the stop at the recent low, convenient.

What's the worst that could happen?
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #10
  • Nov 25, 2025 2:36am Nov 25, 2025 2:36am
Quoting kleybenny
Hi Erebus, nice thread! You wrote: Take Profit initial set at 1 to 1, move daily IF trade progresses, using daily ADR targets. I don't understand how you do this. If I set tp at 1:1, than price moves in my favour at which point do you move your TP further away before it hits 1:1? I will follow you closely.
Here is a case exactly, placed with 60 pips S.L. and 60 pips T.P. at 1 to 1, now it is looking good, so I will drag the T.P. higher to the projected daily range high.

It may not hit, it could totally reverse, but I probably have B.E. set by then, review tomorrow, it could be even higher.
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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #11
  • Nov 25, 2025 6:01am Nov 25, 2025 6:01am
Closed all positions:

1. Always protect your account.

2. Didn't like the price action.

3. More storms tonight, possible loss of power again, it was 22-hours yesterday.

4. Big USD news coming soon, and I will be in bed.

5. Booked 1% for the day, so there is that. You can check the Trade Explorer (TE).

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #12
  • Nov 25, 2025 6:20am Nov 25, 2025 6:20am
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Here is a case exactly, placed with 60 pips S.L. and 60 pips T.P. at 1 to 1, now it is looking good, so I will drag the T.P. higher to the projected daily range high. It may not hit, it could totally reverse, but I probably have B.E. set by then, review tomorrow, it could be even higher. {image}
Thank you for explaining. I like your approach. Always protecting profits.

Why did you choose first 60 pips sl and tp? Do you orient towards the daily fib pivots?
  • #13
  • Nov 25, 2025 2:09pm Nov 25, 2025 2:09pm
Quoting kleybenny
{quote} Thank you for explaining. I like your approach. Always protecting profits. Why did you choose first 60 pips sl and tp? Do you orient towards the daily fib pivots?
Yeah, didn't work so great this time, bit embarrassing actually, my GBP feeling was correct, it was strong as anything, oh well.

Why 60 pips? It just looked about right, no hard and fast rules, experience I guess, last few weeks it has been trying to go long.
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And it did go up.
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  • #14
  • Nov 25, 2025 2:17pm Nov 25, 2025 2:17pm
How strong the GBP? Right on top, and USD the weakest.

But this is trade that I wasn't interested in, stop too far away, watch next week if current conditions prevail.
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  • #15
  • Nov 26, 2025 1:47am Nov 26, 2025 1:47am
I see nothing to trade, NZD cuts interest rate and it skyrockets on all pairs; GBP lost all steam, probably nothing until next week.
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All JPY pairs like this:
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Patience.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #16
  • Nov 26, 2025 2:16am Nov 26, 2025 2:16am
Quoting Erebus
I see nothing to trade, NZD cuts interest rate and it skyrockets on all pairs; GBP lost all steam, probably nothing until next week. {image} All JPY pairs like this: {image} Patience.
NZD/USD was a great trade for me... patience was required tho
  • #17
  • Nov 26, 2025 2:45am Nov 26, 2025 2:45am
Quoting T721
{quote} NZD/USD was a great trade for me... patience was required tho
Definitely opportunity was there for all kinds of traders, I was away from the screen, but nothing for this method, but it could be a setup next week.

Have a good one!
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #18
  • Dec 2, 2025 6:43am Dec 2, 2025 6:43am
looks like its a rough week
  • #19
  • Dec 2, 2025 2:16pm Dec 2, 2025 2:16pm
Subscribed!
It is always a pleasure to see a profitable trade explorer.
  • #20
  • Dec 2, 2025 2:46pm Dec 2, 2025 2:46pm
Quoting notabdullah1
looks like its a rough week
My fault, got caught up with price and emotional whipsaw on GOLD, you know, when you get the direction right, but market has other ideas?
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Last few weeks of the year, should know better.
It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
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