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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #641
  • Aug 17, 2007 1:43pm Aug 17, 2007 1:43pm
Quoting camptrader
Jacko does the fact that we had a 59 pip retrace 1.3546 to 1.3483 hold any significance in your trading style since the trailing stop is 50 pips?
too soon for me no clear direction
  • #642
  • Aug 17, 2007 1:53pm Aug 17, 2007 1:53pm
i know it's early days but i think this whole sub-prime fiasco is running out of steam. it looks like the master could be right. however one day is too short to confirm.

i think this level is good but there could be several more retests of weekly support on the majors - even the dow is exhibiting similar price action - and a break back up to confirm it's all over.

weekly/monthly support should provide stiffer resistance to any more downside breaks.

Quoting SeekingLight
I was eyeing 1.3440 but we went too much below it for me to think this is only a retrace. But looking at my and your chart - 1.3600-1.3650 is looking very appetizing to look for a short setup
HEY THAT'S ALSO THE 50%! ;D

Hehehehe...let's see.
  • #643
  • Aug 17, 2007 3:23pm Aug 17, 2007 3:23pm
4H trendline is down.
Daily trendline is down.
Weekly trendline is up.

I have faith in the weekly trendline
So I have buyed the EUR/USD at 1,3500. Stop loss is at 1,3350.

If this trade failed, then i go check the monthly uptrend. I will buy it somewhere at the monthly uptrend using the Jacko anti-hedging methode

Jacko, you said the trendline easy to draw. A kid can do that. Oh cmon, I dont think 90% failed traders have never heard a mighty trendfollowing methode. They are not that stupid.

Trading Forex is 100% Mathematics. If you dont have a great Math you will fail this business. But hey this my theory. I could be wwwwwwrrrong!!
  • #644
  • Aug 17, 2007 3:31pm Aug 17, 2007 3:31pm
well there seemed to be a lot of different charts posted the past few days, price bounced just above my 23 fib on the monthly chart, also right around my trend line... everybody was looking at 1.3450 or 3500 to start long... well i decided it would have to go through 3400 to get to that level, so took a shot and went long at 1.3409.... worked out pretty well...
  • #645
  • Aug 17, 2007 4:14pm Aug 17, 2007 4:14pm
1.3375 entry http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1541680&postcount=611

stopped out at 1.3497 (trailing 50pts or 2 below round numbers if close).
  • #646
  • Aug 17, 2007 10:14pm Aug 17, 2007 10:14pm
were you short @ 3375 ?
why not long considering all the price action.
  • #647
  • Aug 18, 2007 1:08am Aug 18, 2007 1:08am
Quoting rustyjeff
were you short @ 3375 ?
why not long considering all the price action.
"(trailing 50pts or 2 below round numbers if close)" He was long and stopped out on the retrace back under 3500.
  • #648
  • Aug 18, 2007 4:47am Aug 18, 2007 4:47am
Yes, TraderKGB is right. It was long and felt a little risky at the time with everyone talking about changing to shorts at prices somewhat above my buy order. But 50% is 50% and round number and channels all add to probabilities.
  • #649
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:44pm Aug 18, 2007 10:44pm
Quoting 59fender
too soon for me no clear direction
Thanks 59fener, it makes sense that until we are moving with the trend we could be in for a little turbulence especially at an important number as 1.3500. 1.3650 will also likely be an area where we hit resistance and pause again.
Camptrader
  • #650
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:41am Aug 19, 2007 4:41am
Previously I also used to put a 50 pip trailing stop on my orders. I also used to get stopped out because the price would go up 30 or 40 pips and my trailing stop would follow. When the price retreated and went below my order I would only have a 10 or 20 pip spread until it hit my stop loss. In a post by Jacko, I cannot find the number, he said he manually puts in the stop loss and also change it manually. I think this is very important. I also started to put the stop loss manually and only after I would break even on my stop loss I put the trailing stop. This method ensures that there is always a 50 pip spread between order price and stop until you reach break even.
  • #651
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:33am Aug 19, 2007 7:33am
for those of use that are not able to monitor trades all day due to jobs or school, etc... if i know i am not going to be at the computer, i set half my position to tp at 30 pips. the remaining stays at the 50 pip trailing stop. so if you reach 30 pips profit, and then price falls back down, which would stop you out at -20, you at least grab 10 pips (+30 on position 1, -20 on position 2). then you still have the option to anti-hedge if you want, but always get some profit, as long as price moves at least 30 pips in your favor.
  • #652
  • Edited 9:16am Aug 19, 2007 8:52am | Edited 9:16am
Hi everyone

First post on this site after spending many hours going through this and the other Jacko threads. I love this system and thank you to Jacko for posting it and continuing to help others with their trading. I look forwards to continuing to follow this thread and hopefully contributing something worth while..!


Quoting vinnie99
4H trendline is down.
Daily trendline is down.
Weekly trendline is up.
Regarding the above, I would say that the trend on the daily at the minute is still up. Who would agree/disagree with this? If you draw a trend line from the 26th Jan and touching the 13th June on the daily then is seems the price is bouncing of this up line at present.

(Vinnie, not trying to have a go at you at all mate, am just curious as to weather I am right about this)

Am I correct in thinking that because weekly and daily are up, we are looking to go long despite the fact that the 240 and 60 charts are down..?

Cheers
  • #653
  • Aug 19, 2007 4:19pm Aug 19, 2007 4:19pm
Some are trying to guess EXACTLY when and what direction the trend is GOING to be?? The price will trend and then you will know. Indicators lag, and know one can perdict the future....Let it come to you. You know,
"your 5 year old will tell you if you can't figure it out!"

"It is great fun to guess, but do not invest until committed". We are not Jacko!! Most will probably need to see a trend then invest. Bet, Jacko would endorse this as a potential very profitable entry.

generalz
  • #654
  • Aug 20, 2007 12:20am Aug 20, 2007 12:20am
First, I would like to say I am enjoying this thread and I am only up to page 12

Well after a year of struggling with day trading I finally got frustrated and gave up with that and finally moved over to position trading with my entry off the daily chart. This happened two weeks ago and it is the best thing that has ever happened to my trading! Then one of my trading buddies points me to this thread and things get sweeter. I love your anti-hedging idea! I never really saw a solid benefit to hedging but your anti-hedging is gold

I just wanted to take a moment and give appreciation to you and to thank you. I have certainly enjoyed reading this thread and hopefully in the near future when I caught up reading on it I will be able to contribute like all the fine folks that have done so already!
  • #655
  • Aug 20, 2007 12:42am Aug 20, 2007 12:42am
Quoting jacko
Well, the Market didnt rise up to 1.3500 for a second touch. However, I have left the 1.3500 stop buy in place.

ANOTHER BIG CALL !!!!!!!!!

I haven't gone "short"...and don't intend to go "short"...for a couple of reasons:

1. I think the opportunity passed me by, firstly when I didnt go short on the break of the 4 hr trend line at 1.3700 and secondly when I didn't go short at the break of the daily trend line at 1.3450. (Aaah but.... 20 / 20 hindsight is a beautiful thing).

2. I dont want to "chase" the opportunity and be hustled by the "irrational (negative) exuberance" of the current market.

3. My instinct/experience/gut feeling is that we are closer to the bottom of this fall than everyone thinks. I get the feeling that we were at the brink of something very serious but we have now pulled back from it.

4. Unless those smart-ass Wall St idiots have set off a truly financial nuclear weapon of mass destruction bomb, then I consider that this market may be getting close to its bottom.

5. I am not trying to say that now is a good time to buy (1.3400 is too uncertain a risk for me, but I may lower my Stop Buy to 1.3450 later)....or that the market won't go lower in the very short term...but what I am thinking is that the MAIN danger MAY have passed.

If that is the case, the relief rally (when everyone sighs a big sigh of relief and cheers each other), will be quick and intense.

6. In light of the above, I don't, at this stage, intend taking any "shorts" but will be looking to lower my Stop Buys if this market goes lower

7. Put bluntly, I didn't react quick enough to "short" the correction at worthwhile levels. However, I think that this downward correction is dying.


PLEASE NOTE I could be wwwwwrong !!!!
To everyone,


This is one of those awful, and most dreaded, posts. It is a post AFTER I have done a transaction.

For those of you who are cynical of such posts, Please stop reading as I do not want, or need, a barrage of complaints.

For anyone who wants to read on, please feel free to treat this post from an informational point of view only.

I also want to emphasise that no bragging rights attach to these trades.

OK.....

As outlined above, I was NOT a short and I thought that the market was close to a turn.

We then watched the market have an "exhaustion spike" (from experience, I have noticed that when a fast moving market has approached a top or a bottom it will have an extreme spike which usually is a sign that a turnaround is in place).

If you look at any of the short term time frames (eg 15 mins) you will see a quick and deep spike down to 1.3359. At that point, I "thought" that maybe we were seeing a bottom. But we decided to stay out until more proof was available.

Twenty one hours later, Mark called me to say that another spike had occurred to 1.3367. (in other words, a spike...but not as low as the previous one). That to us, was the sign of market strength that we were looking for. We bought at 1.3400. (As I was away from my computer, Mark placed the trades and I didn't have the opportunity to post it here).. . Anyway, the point is NOT to try to get bragging rights....this post is just intended to explain what I did and why.

Having said that, lets see what then happened with this trade.

Market went to 1.3500 ... I added more
Market peaked at 1.3545...Trailing stop loss placed at 1.3495 (1.3545 - 0050 = 1.3495)
All trades stopped out at 1.3495

I am now flat with no market positions.

As I have said, I apologise for not posting at the time of the trade but it was not possible. Also, I know that it invites scepticism of my trading integrity. However, I consider that my "approach or reasons" for the trade is of some value, especially to some of the more experienced traders here.



.
  • #656
  • Aug 20, 2007 12:52am Aug 20, 2007 12:52am
To everyone,

Even though this is not a live trading thread I will try to outline, in advance, what I trade.

This week, I am looking to go long on the euro again.

However, I think that I can buy them cheaper than the current price of 1.3500. (I don't think that we will see a lower low than than 1.3370...but I can see a possible small retracement)

But....I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

But I am a buyer at 1.3450.
  • #657
  • Aug 20, 2007 1:17am Aug 20, 2007 1:17am
Quoting jacko
To everyone,


This is one of those awful, and most dreaded, posts. It is a post AFTER I have done a transaction.

For those of you who are cynical of such posts, Please stop reading as I do not want, or need, a barrage of complaints.

For anyone who wants to read on, please feel free to treat this post from an informational point of view only.

I also want to emphasise that no bragging rights attach to these trades.

OK.....

As outlined above, I was NOT a short and I thought that the market was close to a turn.

We then watched the market have an "exhaustion spike" (from experience, I have noticed that when a fast moving market has approached a top or a bottom it will have an extreme spike which usually is a sign that a turnaround is in place).

If you look at any of the short term time frames (eg 15 mins) you will see a quick and deep spike down to 1.3359. At that point, I "thought" that maybe we were seeing a bottom. But we decided to stay out until more proof was available.

Twenty one hours later, Mark called me to say that another spike had occurred to 1.3367. (in other words, a spike...but not as low as the previous one). That to us, was the sign of market strength that we were looking for. We bought at 1.3400. (As I was away from my computer, Mark placed the trades and I didn't have the opportunity to post it here).. . Anyway, the point is NOT to try to get bragging rights....this post is just intended to explain what I did and why.

Having said that, lets see what then happened with this trade.

Market went to 1.3500 ... I added more
Market peaked at 1.3545...Trailing stop loss placed at 1.3495 (1.3545 - 0050 = 1.3495)
All trades stopped out at 1.3495

I am now flat with no market positions.

As I have said, I apologise for not posting at the time of the trade but it was not possible. Also, I know that it invites scepticism of my trading integrity. However, I consider that my "approach or reasons" for the trade is of some value, especially to some of the more experienced traders here.



.
Hi Jacko!

I bought at 1.3450 and am also stopped out at 1.3495. But what I wanted to say, please keep on posting, it is not important for me if you are posting before or after a trade, because I want to see every step you do and that is possible for me also after you made a trade. If everybody read your posts carefully there would be a Lot to learn.

Thanks again and keep on posting, I learn from every post you write.
I am no newbee, and I earn money by trading but it is very important for me to analyze every step you do, because if everybody would do that, there could bee seen a lot of answers to our trading.

I thank you once again for your help, because you don't have to do that, please keep on posting.

Kind Regards Erkro
  • #658
  • Aug 20, 2007 3:40am Aug 20, 2007 3:40am
Quoting jacko
We then watched the market have an "exhaustion spike" (from experience, I have noticed that when a fast moving market has approached a top or a bottom it will have an extreme spike which usually is a sign that a turnaround is in place).

If you look at any of the short term time frames (eg 15 mins) you will see a quick and deep spike down to 1.3359. At that point, I "thought" that maybe we were seeing a bottom. But we decided to stay out until more proof was available.

Twenty one hours later, Mark called me to say that another spike had occurred to 1.3367. (in other words, a spike...but not as low as the previous one). That to us, was the sign of market strength that we were looking for. We bought at 1.3400..


Hi all,
just wanted to add a chart to help illustrate. These "spike lows" often do signal exhaustion as jacko said and I know these formations as pin bars, candlestick users would say hammers or some doji variation probably.

If you look to the "left" on the 4h chart, you can see 1.3370 was/is s/r.
The 1h PBs occured at/near that level, showing us there were some buyers trying to push back here.


Whether this was "it"(no more drastic new lows) or whether we are simply moving up to my watched 1.3600 for now I can't tell before it happens either.
Personally I'm staying bearish until proven wrong.

Find chart below.

Take care,

SeekingLight
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #659
  • Aug 20, 2007 3:41am Aug 20, 2007 3:41am
As someone who's trading their own discretionary strategy (on Hang Seng) successfully I would like to say:

1. Jacko, yes, please post before or after ... its the thinking that will help me or a newbie to learn.

2. Anyone who doubts Jacko's veracity should sit on it. What he's doing is simple and realistic. Its a very valid strategy.

3. Be aware if you're new that even though its simple and valid there are a lot of internal issues one has to overcome before one can trade a system successfully. If you start to suspect that you have problems doing as well as you should look up Denise Shull on the internet and work thru her free video downloads (she provides good assistance to implementing the recommendations of Mark Douglas).

My 2c worth
  • #660
  • Aug 20, 2007 5:19am Aug 20, 2007 5:19am
Quoting jacko
To everyone,
This is one of those awful, and most dreaded, posts. It is a post AFTER I have done a transaction.
..............................................
.
A big to THANKS to you Jacko,
It does not matter if the post is well after the trade. Nobody can doubt your read the market after the posts around the time of the last top.
I would hope that nobody is looking for a free ride on your trades here - that is a dangerous thing to try.

What we really appreciate the way you are so generous with your thoughts on the market and the little details as to how you formulate your views. These are so valuable to even the more experienced of us. I know that there are a lot of people out there charging big bucks for systems or signals which barely break even over the longer term.

Thanks once again,
Ian
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