Pivot Trading

But the market is not in "risk off" mode, the stock indices are flirting with all time highs day after day, the correlation of the strong USD and stocks at all time highs is simply because the country is actually being run properly.

just look at BTCUSD why its selling when USD news is bad?
Why do you see a strong USD, markets is selling everthing to keep their hopes up. You do not see the cracks, well I do
Why the fed cut rates and stopped QT? We just need bad numbers on NFP then ....

"In light of the rapid and material deterioration in both the economic outlook and the functioning of financial markets, we are ceasing the reduction of our balance sheet, effective immediately. This action is necessary to ensure the smooth transmission of monetary policy and to maintain stability in critical funding markets. Our primary focus remains on our dual mandate, but we must first ensure the financial system itself remains robust."

buying the USD as a safe haven, "dash for cash"

More traditional safe-haven currency (JPY), there is no conflict. It is a pure, clean expression of the "risk-off" theme. It removes the paradox of the USD strengthening on bad US news.

The market is playing catch-up to a reality

Hmmmm....chart looks kinda bullish to me....just went down to fill a gap and then boom, look at that hammer developing today.



The USD strength COMBINED with stocks flirting with all time highs is not safe haven.....it's the USA kicking ass!!!!

I'm trading what I see - price action - long tech100 this morning and will probably hold.

Wow, another name, also Egbert, from when this thread was active every day. I've moved to futures, however, pivots are still a huge part of my strategy.
On futures, I use the daily pivots, they are freaking magnets....combined with VWAP and PA.........pretty amazing.

I switched to MT5 now, does anyone have a pivot indicator or I need to make one?

Short EURGBP, rejection around R61.

The indicator is made and attached.

And USDCAD long, reaction at S100.

A truly strong economy that is attracting genuine investment would be accompanied by a dovish Fed and a weaker dollar, as capital flows out to seek higher returns elsewhere. The current strong dollar is a symptom of a crisis, not a sign of strength.

People making this argument are looking at the beautiful scenery in the rear-view mirror. They do not see the cliff that the "Weekly Pivots" tells us is right in front of the car

The belief that "all-time highs mean a strong economy" is the peak of retail thinking. It is the final, euphoric gasp before a downturn

You are correct that stocks were strong and the dollar is strong. However, you are mistaking a reflection of the past for a prediction of the future. The indicators are telling us the future is weak. The Fed's own policy is guaranteeing that the future will be weak. And the strong dollar is a temporary illusion caused by a political crisis, not a sign of fundamental economic health. I do not drive by looking in the rear-view mirror."

I'm not a rear-view mirror driver. I'm a forward-looking strategists. This is my greatest protection and my most significant edge

Our calendar is our strategic guide. It tells us what matters, when it matters, and how to interpret the outcome through the disciplined, objective lens of our road map—the Weekly Pivot

Monday, Nov 10

1. Indicator: Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations
   1. Importance: Low. This is a minor, forward-looking inflation gauge.
   2. Our Action: Monitor for context, but no trading action. It will be overshadowed by the official CPI data later in the week.

   
   

Tuesday, Nov 11

1. Indicator: NFIB Small Business Index
   1. Importance: Medium. This gives insight into the health and confidence of small businesses, which are a major driver of employment.
   2. Our Action: A significant miss here would add further validation to the "Weak Economy" narrative ahead of the major data on Thursday.

   
   

Wednesday, Nov 12

1. Event: Multiple FOMC Member Speeches (Barr, Williams, Waller, etc.)
   1. Importance: High. This is our chance to "read the Fed's mind" post-UoM data.
   2. Our Action: We will listen intently for any acknowledgement of the weak data or any hints about their reaction. We are especially listening for any mention of "balance sheet," "funding stress,".

   
   

Thursday, Nov 13: THE MAIN EVENT (Part 1)

1. Indicator: Core CPI & CPI (Consumer Price Index)
   1. Importance: MAXIMUM. This is the first major test.
   2. The Market's Expectation (Priced-In): The market is positioned for a weak (lower) CPI reading, confirming that the economic slowdown is successfully cooling inflation.
   3. Our Action: We will not trade the number itself. We will trade the market's verdict, which is rendered at the Weekly Pivot.
      1. If CPI is weak as expected, and price remains BELOW the pivot: The bearish structure holds. Mission: SELL RALLIES.
      2. If CPI is surprisingly strong (hot), and price remains BELOW the pivot: The bearish structure holds. Mission: SELL RALLIES.
      3. If the news, regardless of what it is, causes a decisive break ABOVE the pivot: The structure has flipped. Mission: BUY DIPS.

      
      

   
   

2. Indicator: Unemployment Claims
   1. Importance: Medium. A higher-than-expected number would add to the "Weak Economy" narrative.

   
   

Friday, Nov 14: THE MAIN EVENT (Part 2)

1. Indicator: Core Retail Sales & Retail Sales
   1. Importance: MAXIMUM. This is the second major test, directly measuring the "Weak Consumer" narrative.
   2. The Market's Expectation (Priced-In): The market is positioned for a very weak Retail Sales number, confirming the story told by the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.
   3. Our Action: Same as CPI. The Weekly Pivot is the only verdict. We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction.

   
   

2. Event: FOMC Member Lorie Logan Speaks
   1. Importance: High. As a key voice on market operations, her speech is the final event of the week. We will listen for any reaction to the week's data and any clarification on the "funding stress" issues.

   
   

The Weekly Pivot is the only verdict. We obey the structure that results from the market's reaction
We trust the structure above all else

Just sharing a bit of my experience with pivot trading after using it for quite some time.

One thing I’ve learned — always take note of the pivot width compared to the previous week.
Having a rough idea helps a lot in understanding potential volatility.

If you notice the pivots are too squeezed, be cautious.
That’s usually a sign the market is building up for a breakout volatility week.

During these weeks, price action often doesn’t respect the usual pivot levels like SR78, SR100, or SR200 — it can blow right past them.

The market behaves like a runaway train, moving aggressively either direction — from R200 to S200 or the other way around — without much pause.

So, when you see a narrow pivot range, don’t expect a calm market. Instead, prepare for fast, high-momentum moves — both up and down.

Just my thoughts — trade safe everyone.

Another observation I’d like to share today — something I’ve noticed repeatedly over time.

Always keep Wednesday in mind as a key reference point in the week.
There’s a reason why we have a 3x swap on Wednesday and why FOMC events often fall on Wednesdays too.
It’s not random — Wednesday tends to act as the pivot day of the trading week.

If price makes a strong move before Wednesday and reaches significant pivot levels like SR78 or SR100, then statistically, the probability of a pullback increases by Thursday or Friday.

It’s almost like the market “resets” midweek — liquidity shifts, and traders reposition.

As for SR200, that’s a different story. Moves to that level usually involve high-impact fundamentals or big macro events
so it’s less predictable from a pure technical point of view.

Jheeze, I see all the OG's have returned to post this November!

On a side note, Nittohanns, thank you for all your posts over the years.
I went through your profile and a years worth of forum posts/ images you posted on this a while ago - helped me learn a LOT from analysing your entries - so thank you. Davit helped me build my foundation and you helped me hone my skills a lot.

Going further from what I shared earlier, I want to offer an additional piece of education for anyone using pivots seriously.

Most traders only look at pivots as price levels, but pivots are also formed by time(Daily, Weekly, Monthly)

If you pay attention long enough, you’ll notice that Wednesday often acts as a time pivot of the entire week.
This is where price and time align.

Just as the weekly pivot levels create a structure on the chart, the market also forms a distribution curve over the trading week.
And that distribution often shifts left or right / up or down depending on how price behaves before Wednesday.

When you place a vertical midweek line (Wednesday) and overlay it with your pivot zones, you will often see:

1. A buildup → midweek expansion → end-week retracement,
   or
2. Early breakout → midweek reversal → end-week compression.

This is the “distribution curve” shifting.
If the market makes a strong move before Wednesday and hits deeper pivot levels like WR78 / WR100 or WS78 / WS100, you’ll notice that by midweek the distribution “leans” to one side.
This is usually the point where the market decides whether:

1. it will continue the trend,
   or
2. it will begin a mean-reversion / pullback, often on Thursday or Friday.

This pattern repeats more often than many traders realise.
When you combine:

1. price pivots (WR78, WR100, WR138, WR200, etc.)
   and
2. time pivot (Wednesday)

you begin to understand the weekly rhythm of the market. You can literally watch the distribution shift and rebalance itself.

Think of Wednesday as the axis of the weekly curve — the market rotates around it.

Of course, deeper levels like WR200 / WS200 involve strong fundamentals and can break this rhythm, but in normal weeks, price respects this time-price structure surprisingly well.
Hope this gives you a new perspective to study.

The more you observe it, the more you’ll begin to “feel” the weekly cycle.

Everything I post is based solely on my own theory and understanding.
Please always refer back to Post 1 from Davit as the main idea.

What I share is additional information to support that concept.

One very useful thing is to always watch and remember where the price closes, especially the weekly close.
If the price closes high, anywhere above SR138 up to SR200, there is a very good chance that the price will go to SR61 or SR78 first before moving back toward the pivot.

Many traders think that because the market moved too much last week, it should now go straight back to the pivot.
But this can be dangerous.

When the week ends very high, the market often needs to grab liquidity, so it pulls the trigger first.
That quick move to SR61 or SR78 can catch people by surprise.

So in simple terms:
If the week closes very high.
Be careful not to enter too early.

Hi SMD,

Very valuable insights. Highly appreciated.

Best regards, AG