Waiting at the Riverband

so far i had indicated on the charts my thinking from the htf right down to the lower time frames using engulfings and riverbank ce.
easily 1 buy during asia and 1 buy during frankfurt.
could be 2-3% profit and stop trading already.
if you have insatiable appetite, then trade safe.

First trade of the day

Took the buy during frankfurt but got out in partial profit, could have let it run but later got a more safer sell entry

your marking not wrong but problem is you enter before the set up

I saw the liquidity sweep at the orderblock and since I did not get a closure yet I entered upon 1 mins engulfing I saw

LO first trade

edit :close one 70 pips.

I was taken out here

hi, thanks for your reply to my previous post.

im curious why your looking for a buy after the big bearish push we have had on HTF. Newbie to this thread and looking to learn. When you say m5 eg, is eg just meaning example? Thank you.

test of m30 eg buy. m15 riverband ce.
interesting zone now.

out and add one stop uut,
overall -30 pips

Recovered my loss and made profit on this my network provider hanged so I could not take profit at 15 mins bullish engulf

some additional condition
30 eg buy , 15m eg buy
cover back that 30 pips and net 70 pips,
keep one BE
overall 4H almost 6 candles sideway, range top 4111 , bot 4032

GU
4H closed EG buy and 30m bos and pullback discount.
this pair daily outlook target Daily bear push premium ,
4H uptrend but last Friday PA sideway.
weekly outlook

i close it for 120 pips.
sideline for gold

We have CAD CPI in 30 mins guys, will wait after the CPI got a bit chopped up on gold,

Gold took me out now headed in my direction. I might have to be using a 1min CE before entry this limit entry isnt good for me at all

this week has a lot of data at thursday and Friday
i have gained some and give back some at gold,
it seem a lot of pairs sideway.
i may stop now

btw gu all closed

Medium-to-Long Term Analysis: The Inevitability of Fiscal Dominance and Gold's Structural Revaluation

Analysis of the Macroeconomic Regime: A Transition from Monetary to Fiscal Dominance
The current correction in gold is not a simple episode of "data-dependency," but the symptom of a deeper regime transition. The market is attempting to resolve the fundamental contradiction between the short-term monetary cycle (restrictive) and the long-term fiscal cycle (expansive and unsustainable).
Reference to Economic Law and Historical Precedent:
This dynamic closely resembles the post-World War II period, when the Fed was forced to keep Treasury yields low ("pegging") to facilitate the financing of war debt—a textbook case of "Fiscal Dominance" (Sargent & Wallace, 1981). Today, with US public debt/GDP exceeding 120%, we are approaching a similar tipping point. Lerner's Theory of Functional Finance suggests that in such contexts, fiscal policy becomes primary, and monetary policy becomes accommodative out of necessity, not choice.
Technical and Forward-Looking Proposition:
My thesis is that the market is underestimating the "Fiscal Dominance Premium" in gold, focusing excessively on the Fed's forward guidance mechanism. This premium is not currently visible because it is masked by the data lag and the cyclical strength of the dollar.
Proposed Pricing Mechanism:
The spot price of gold (P_gold) can be decomposed as:
P_gold = f( [r_real - g_debt], σ_fiscal, DCB) + ε
Where:

1. r_real - g_debt = Real interest rate - Nominal debt growth rate. When debt growth persistently exceeds real interest rates (r_real < g_debt, a condition of "fiscal dominance" according to Blanchard's dynamics), the premium for currency devaluation risk (σ_fiscal) soars.
2. σ_fiscal = Fiscal volatility (a proxy for debt sustainability risk).
3. DCB = Central Bank Demand (an inelastic and structural variable).

Concrete Historical Case Study:
The "Volcker Shock" of the early 1980s represents the antithesis of the current context. At that time, the debt/GDP ratio was low (~30%), and the Fed could apply an authentically restrictive monetary policy (high positive real rates) to crush inflation, suppressing gold for two decades. Today, a similar rate hike would accelerate the cost of debt servicing, plunging the economy into a fiscal crisis—making a Volcker-style policy mathematically and politically impossible.
Operational Conclusion and Proposal:
The window for a structurally strong dollar and sustainably high real rates is closing not by choice, but due to a Government Budget Constraint. The current weakness in gold is therefore a temporary optical illusion, a mispricing created by the market's blindness to the fiscal trajectory.
The proposal is this: Traders should use any strength in the dollar or rise in rates—driven by seemingly solid economic data—as a signal to accumulate gold, not to sell it. Why? Because such data only delays the inevitable: the moment when the "Fiscal Dominance Regime" becomes plain for all to see, forcing the Fed to capitulate, suppress real rates, and monetize the debt, triggering the next—and likely more violent—bullish phase for monetary metals. This is not a cyclical trade; it is a positioning for an epochal regime change.

there was a h4 eg sell to eg buy move.
asia open m30 eg sell confirmation entry / m3 riverbank ce.

now we monitor whether there will be a h1/m30 eg sell conf or a eg buy conf.