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FXTradepro: Strategy using a “Semi-Martingale” Position Sizing

  • #61
  • Aug 18, 2007 7:49pm Aug 18, 2007 7:49pm
Quoting jones247
I don't know what happened to my post... Did I do something wrong???

hello again jones247,

I am not sure I understand what you are talking about above? Did you Post something that was removed?

Dan
  • #62
  • Edited 10:21pm Aug 18, 2007 8:39pm | Edited 10:21pm
Hello Dan,

Thank you for your presentation and sharing your EA with us. Keep up the good work!

Questions:

1) When EA gets to the 24th sequence, the lots would be 65.5. However, with a mini account @ InterbankFX, they do not allow to trade more than 50 lots, and hence EA will get "invalid trade volume" error when it gets to 24th sequence and will not be able to place that trade. How do we handle this situation?

2) When I trade GBPJPY, the spreads = 9 at IBFX. What should TP & SL be set to?

3) With a mini account and leverage 1:400, what are the sequence of lots to be set in the Multi-lots section of EA?

4) When EA stops trading after hitting TP, how do you activate EA again for the next trade entry?

Thank you.
  • #63
  • Aug 18, 2007 8:51pm Aug 18, 2007 8:51pm
See the thread "Martingale EA. Almost Can't Lose. Read post # 39, 50 & 52 (especially #52). I think that BurgerKIng & FXTradepro understand the opportunity for this strategy. Although his EA doubles up, which demands greater money management. I will e-mail BurgerKing and invite him to this thread, as I believe he will add excellent value to it.

Quote
Quote:
Posting #52
This is a visual:
http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/8623/hedgecj3.gif

The above is made with TakeProfit = 20, HedgeGap = 20 and BreakEven = 0.

The BreakEven was intentionally to decrease the Lottage. However, I find that BreakEven is a curse. It lengthens the duration of the trades so much so that I eventually end up with more lots than necessary.

Be noted that TakeProfit and HedgeGap should be in multiples of each other. BUT If your broker allows 0.01 lots, then you can trade with multiples of 10 assuming you trade 0.1 lot initially. Dont make the HedgeGap small. 20 is an optimal size for GBPUSD.

A wider HedgeGap will increase the lot sizes.
A smaller TakeProfit will increase the Lot sizes too.
So tweak your trades accordingly.

I suggest you to take a position a few minutes after your broker awards swaps. But if your broker dont charge you swaps nor commission, you can take positions anytime of the day nonstop...

Margin is your primary concern; as long as you have the margin to keep going, you will win. This is why I only trade 0.1 lot per 50K 100:1 leverage. But if you have a 400:1 leverage, you can trade with just 10K earning 20~60 daily. Again the profit isnt much but sure beats putting the money in the bank.

Second concern is Swap and Commission. Dont trade if your account is charged commission. and dont open new positions after 12nn EST to avoid swaps.
  • #64
  • Aug 18, 2007 9:58pm Aug 18, 2007 9:58pm
Hi FxTrade, your idea is very nice and i think most people think about doing this but they didn't improve the system, so let's try to make this workout.

I think that 10 pips SL is too little, i think we might let the trade run setting like 25 SL and 60 TP for G/U since we have a 100+ ATR.

Did you tried a bigger SL and TP?

I'm waitting to Sunday open so i can test your EA.

BTW, thanks for the EA and Indicators and congrats for the professional presentation.

Regards
No Brain, no Gain.
  • #65
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:19pm Aug 18, 2007 10:19pm
Quoting EATrader
Hello Dan,

Thank you for your presentation and sharing your EA with us. Keep up the good work!

Questions:

1) When EA gets to the 24th sequence, the lots would be 65.5. However, with a mini account @ InterbankFX, they do not allow to trade more than 50 lots, and hence EA will get "invalid trade volume" error when it gets to 24th sequence and will not be able to place that trade. How do we handle this situation?

2) When I trade GBPJPY, the spreads = 9 at IBFX. What should TP & SL be set to?

3) With a mini account and leverage 1:400, what are the sequence of lots to be set in the Multi-lots section of EA?

4) When EA stops trading after hitting TP, how do you activate EA again for the next trade entry?

Thank you.
Hello EATrader......I will try and answer your questions:

1) I have prepared some information about using the Strategy on an IBFX Mini Account (and also on their Standard Account - see below). These TABLES are for use with my standard TP & SL Settings of 40/10 but should address your question about what to do in regard to their 50 Mini-Lot restriction.

INTERBANKFX - A Broker with an Unusual MT4 Platform IBFX's MT4 Platform is uniquely different than MOST other MT4 Platforms and offers some additional flexibility in Lot Size configuration which has an effect on Margin and Leverage considerations.

An IBFX Standard Account permits the following Lot Size increments:

1.0 Lots = 100,000 Units = $10. per Pip
0.1 Lots = 10,000 Units = $1. per Pip
.01 Lots = 1,000 Units = $0.10 per Pip

As you can see IBFX offers MICRO Lots of 1,000 Units on their Standard Account. Most other MT4 Broker's DO NOT. This means that an IBFX Standard Account can be used with a SMALLER Account Balance as compared to a typical Standard Account because of this Lot Size flexibility.

Please review TABLE 1.6 below and notice that the Mini and Micro Lot capabilities of the IBFX MT4 Platform enables us to Trade at 1/2 the normal position size of a regular Standard Account. It is true that Profits would also be smaller using this set-up, however, for those wishing to trade the Strategy with less funds, IBFX offers a good option. Generally, IBFX offers 100:1 on their Standard Account and you can also trade our regular Lot Sequence configuration as detailed in TABLE 1.2 in the Leverage and Margin Post.

http://aycu22.webshots.com/image/230...0686020_rs.jpg
TABLE 1.6 - IBFX STANDARD Account with Standard, Mini & Micro Lots Permitted - 100:1 Leverage


IBFX also has an unusual method of Lot Sizing on their Mini Account Platform that permits the following Lot Size increments:

1.0 Lots = 10,000 Units = $1. per Pip
0.1 Lots = 1,000 Units = $0.10 per Pip
.01 Lots = 100 Units = $0.01 per Pip (Nano Lots)

Notice that in an IBFX Mini Acount a Lot Size of 1.0 = 10,000 Units and NOT 100,000 Units as it does on most other MT4 Broker's Platforms. Additionally, they permit the use of NANO Lots of 100 Units which can be useful when LIVE Testing the Platform and Strategy. Also, IBFX calculates Margin Requirements so that $50 in Margin is required to open each 1.0 Mini Lot position at 200:1 Leverage.

When Trading at IBFX on their Mini Account Platform and using our default Lot Sizing in a Sequence Of Trades you must be aware of the following restriction. IBFX's Mini Account does not permit Lot Sizes of more than 50 Mini Lots PER CLICK. What this means is that the FXTradepro Manager EA cannot enter any positions that are greater than 50 Mini Lots. The results of this restriction is that our standard Sequence Of Trades when trading a Mini Account at IBFX is reduced to a MAXIMUM of 22 Entries regardless of our Account Size. In this case we set the Lot Size Parameters to "0" in MLot23 and MLot24 of the EA. Please review TABLE 1.7 below for details regarding the use of the Strategy with an IBFX Mini Account at 200:1 Leverage. TABLE 1.8 details an IBFX Mini Account at 400:1.



http://aycu03.webshots.com/image/242...2269501_rs.jpg
TABLE 1.7 - IBFX MINI Account with Mini, Micro & Nano Lots Permitted - 200:1 Leverage


http://aycu19.webshots.com/image/246...1203786_rs.jpg
TABLE 1.8 - IBFX MINI Account with Mini, Micro & Nano Lots Permitted - 400:1 Leverage



2) I don't Trade GBPJPY and I am not familiar with the "personality" of this Pair, however, I would guess that a SL of maybe 20 would be more suitable since I understand that this Pair is quite volatile. If you or someone else can tell me what they feel (based upon some experience) would be a suitable SL then I should be able to calculate a Lot Size Sequence for that Pair. Also, please note that the TP SHOULD be at least 2x-4x the SL setting.

3) See TABLE 1.8 above

4) After a Target has been hit, the EA will go to a Hibernate Mode (if Hibernate is set to TRUE). To restart the EA you would remove it from the Chart, change the Magic Number and then re-attach to the Chart setting your Entry Parameter for either a Timed Entry, A Price Entry or an Immediate Entry. As a side note, if Hibernate is set to FALSE, the EA will automatically restart the Sequence at the MLOT1 sizing and continue the Sequence automatically. I DO NOT RECOMMEND THIS AND ALWAYS KEEP HIBERNATE SET TO TRUE.

I hope you understand these points.

Dan
  • #66
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:26pm Aug 18, 2007 10:26pm
Quoting BGazzoni
Hi FxTrade, your idea is very nice and i think most people think about doing this but they didn't improve the system, so let's try to make this workout.

I think that 10 pips SL is too little, i think we might let the trade run setting like 25 SL and 60 TP for G/U since we have a 100+ ATR.

Did you tried a bigger SL and TP?

I'm waitting to Sunday open so i can test your EA.

BTW, thanks for the EA and Indicators and congrats for the professional presentation.

Regards
Hi BGazzoni,

I have tried many different settings all with reasonable success. The 10 Pip SL is pretty tight but after trying many things I seem to like this the best, BUT only for pairs with a Spread or 5 or Less (less is better of course). You must understand that the Larger the SL is than the Larger your Account will need to be in order to sustain the Sequence to 24 Entries. I have stuck with 10 for that reason and because it works for me. By the way, I Trade GBPUSD often with the 40/10 setting and it has worked well. Remember that I focus on the INITIAL ENTRY placement and try to avoid getting caught in a tight range and whipsawed too many times.

Dan
  • #67
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:37pm Aug 18, 2007 10:37pm
Quoting jones247
See the thread "Martingale EA. Almost Can't Lose. Read post # 39, 50 & 52 (especially #52). I think that BurgerKIng & FXTradepro understand the opportunity for this strategy. Although his EA doubles up, which demands greater money management. I will e-mail BurgerKing and invite him to this thread, as I believe he will add excellent value to it.

jones247.........Correct me if I am wrong but it looks to me like BurgerKing was Hedging and not taking any loss and closing all Buys and Sells at the same time when his Target was hit. If this is the case, I have also Traded that way and find that taking the losses at each level in the progression, as we are discussing here, to be much better in regards to Lot Sizing and Margin Usage.

As far as your emailing BK.....all are invited.

Dan
  • #68
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:41pm Aug 18, 2007 10:41pm
Hello Dan,

Thanks for your helpful answers. Follow up questions:

1) I think SL 20 and TP 40-80 for GBPJPY should be suitable. Please calculate a lot size sequence for this pair so I can test EA on Monday.

2) You stated that "After a Target has been hit, the EA will go to a Hibernate Mode (if Hibernate is set to TRUE). To restart the EA you would remove it from the Chart, change the Magic Number..." Why do we need to change the Magic Number? Since you remove it from the chart and re-attach, the Magic Number has already been reset. In other words, once we remove EA from the chart, EA is not going to remember the last Magic Number when we re-attach. It will start as a new EA. I don't understand this part.

Thanks.

2) I don't Trade GBPJPY and I am not familiar with the "personality" of this Pair, however, I would guess that a SL of maybe 20 would be more suitable since I understand that this Pair is quite volatile. If you or someone else can tell me what they feel (based upon some experience) would be a suitable SL then I should be able to calculate a Lot Size Sequence for that Pair. Also, please note that the TP SHOULD be at least 2x-4x the SL setting.

4) After a Target has been hit, the EA will go to a Hibernate Mode (if Hibernate is set to TRUE). To restart the EA you would remove it from the Chart, change the Magic Number and then re-attach to the Chart setting your Entry Parameter for either a Timed Entry, A Price Entry or an Immediate Entry. As a side note, if Hibernate is set to FALSE, the EA will automatically restart the Sequence at the MLOT1 sizing and continue the Sequence automatically. I DO NOT RECOMMEND THIS AND ALWAYS KEEP HIBERNATE SET TO TRUE.

I hope you understand these points.

Dan[/quote]
  • #69
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:50pm Aug 18, 2007 10:50pm
First i would like to say that 20 pips SL on Gbp/Jpy is giving your money away, it might be at least 40 (forgetting the 9 pips spread), just my oppinion.

I just said to get a bigger SL and TP would provide us to be wrong with more space, cause 10 pips is to little and if you discount the spread at Cable on IBFX your stop would be just 6 pips, so you have to get a really nice entry point.

And the pairs you mentioned most of them have a trend so 60 pips wouldn't be so hard to get. I'm just saying that cause i'm most of swing trader and i can't get the exactly entry point, but i have a nice r:r.

Well, i'll start trying on sunday with my own settings so we could compare the results.

Thanks again and have a good weekend
No Brain, no Gain.
  • #70
  • Aug 18, 2007 10:54pm Aug 18, 2007 10:54pm
Hi very nicwe work . Quick question up to what sequence of trade this system will still be profitable. Ex give 2 example if target hit at 5 sequence you will be stil in profit of $ 90
How about if your target hit at 7 , 8 , 9, 10 ,11 ,12 ----or the worse 15 16 17 18 etc. Can you give the loss and profit for each sequence from 6-24
for $0.10 , $1.00 or $10 (per pips) value
I am not lazy I did some calculation but not sure I did it correct.
I asked you this favour for All traders. keep up the good works
PROFITABLE TRADERS ARE NOT LUCKY BUT ARE WELL PREPARED
  • #71
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:00pm Aug 18, 2007 11:00pm
Quoting EATrader
Hello Dan,

Thanks for your helpful answers. Follow up questions:

1) I think SL 20 and TP 40-80 for GBPJPY should be suitable. Please calculate a lot size sequence for this pair so I can test EA on Monday.

2) You stated that "After a Target has been hit, the EA will go to a Hibernate Mode (if Hibernate is set to TRUE). To restart the EA you would remove it from the Chart, change the Magic Number..." Why do we need to change the Magic Number? Since you remove it from the chart and re-attach, the Magic Number has already been reset. In other words, once we remove EA from the chart, EA is not going to remember the last Magic Number when we re-attach. It will start as a new EA. I don't understand this part.

EATrader,

Here is a TABLE detailing an 80 Pip TP and 20 Pip SL. The Lot Sizing works out to the same as my Standard 40/10 settings because the ratio is the same. Because of the larger SL, however, a larger account is needed to Trade with these settings. The TABLE below is for an IBFX Mini Account at 400:1 Leverage.

Regarding the Magic Number question, I always change it and this is what I was told to do by the programmer who did this for me. I do not know anything about coding so I can't give you a better answer and perhaps you are right on this point.

http://aycu10.webshots.com/image/226...7294222_rs.jpg
  • #72
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:04pm Aug 18, 2007 11:04pm
Quoting zamanib
Hi very nicwe work . Quick question up to what sequence of trade this system will still be profitable. Ex give 2 example if target hit at 5 sequence you will be stil in profit of $ 90
How about if your target hit at 7 , 8 , 9, 10 ,11 ,12 ----or the worse 15 16 17 18 etc. Can you give the loss and profit for each sequence from 6-24
for $0.10 , $1.00 or $10 (per pips) value
I am not lazy I did some calculation but not sure I did it correct.
I asked you this favour for All traders. keep up the good works
zamanib,

I am not sure I understand your question, however, I THINK the infomation that you are looking for is in the TABLES I presented earlier. Sorry if there is a language barrier, but I really don't know what you are asking me.

Dan
  • #73
  • Aug 18, 2007 11:12pm Aug 18, 2007 11:12pm
OK Folks..........The wife says it's time for bed now as it is just after midnight here on the East Coast of the USA. Tomorrow is another day.

Thanks everyone for your comments and interest.

Dan
  • #74
  • Aug 19, 2007 12:52am Aug 19, 2007 12:52am
Hi Dan,
Interesting variation on an old theme, and an excellent presentation of your system.

I like this type of trading tool (and you obviously use it in the context of a tool only), since it allows the trader to dumb down the trading risk considerably at point of trade entry (as long as they have a specific trade entry plan). The tool takes care of the exit and the MM nicely.

Several Questions:

1/ You mentioned the returns you are generating are approximately 100% per annum. This is an excellent return. Can you tell us how often you are running the EA per day (on average) to achieve this?

2/ Can you please elaborate on your decision criteria for entry based on group of indicators you are using (and have also kindly provided for us)?

3/ Can you please clarify how the system/ EA reacts to the broker blowing out the spread, to say 20 pips for ~3 minutes, during volatile news releases?

I saw some comment on this in a post earlier but I am still trying to understand how it actually has affected your live trading...presumablely you get a number of rapid/instant open, close, reverse direction, open, close, reverse direction .... causing some build up of loosing trades??? Yet your response was that it didn't cause you too much of a problem... can you please explain further.

(Obvioulsy one solution is not to trade with the EA until the spreads have settled down again....)

As previoulsy discussed the key to longevity for this type of 'marty' trading is the entry decision - the tool merely lowers the risk of being wrong. The nature of the 'risk structure' (i.e. the Martingale approach) and the system itself means that getting the entry correct is really the only critical issue.

It is easy to see why you have been successful using this tool - since for most traders the entry is (relatively speaking) the easy part to work out, and the more difficult parts are the MM and the exit (mainly due to self imposed psychological pressures).

Looking forward to your response to my questions. Well done.

Tim
  • #75
  • Aug 19, 2007 7:53am Aug 19, 2007 7:53am
Quoting tdion
Good Lord I've posted nearly this exact same strategy twice on this forum:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...395#post178395

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=31337

This thread has a five star rating, but when I originally posted this Merlin moved it to the "Beginner Q & A" thread.

Burgerking made nearly the exact same EA, and it's posted on that thread.

shows that great minds think alike !

since both of you not charging any money for this, right ?

so importantly, the method must work.........in fact it will work but one must have deep pockets or the profits will be too small..........

also, balls of TITANIUM are needed. to keep the faith is most important for this method. those trying this out must have very strong discipline and faith.
  • #76
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:23am Aug 19, 2007 8:23am
Hello Tim.....I will try and answer your questions as best I can. My comments are in RED below.


Quoting timmy
Hi Dan,
Interesting variation on an old theme, and an excellent presentation of your system.

I like this type of trading tool (and you obviously use it in the context of a tool only), since it allows the trader to dumb down the trading risk considerably at point of trade entry (as long as they have a specific trade entry plan). The tool takes care of the exit and the MM nicely.

Several Questions:

1/ You mentioned the returns you are generating are approximately 100% per annum. This is an excellent return. Can you tell us how often you are running the EA per day (on average) to achieve this?

As I stated in an earlier Post, I monitor 7 Currency pairs looking for what I consider a good set-up. Generally speaking, I average 1 or 2 Sequences per day so anywhere from 4 to 10 per week. The average Sequence tends to close by the 8th Entry Level. Obviously, the more I Trade the more I make, however, I do NOT trade unless I feel conditions are right, meaning that I suspect that the Market will move enough to get me out with my Profit in a few hours. I am most careful on Sunday night and I like to wait for things to begin to take shape before getting started for the week and I am also hesitant to trade on Friday's as I do not prefer to hold positions over the weekend. To my mind Trading is a waiting game and we must not enter just for the sake of being in the Market.

2/ Can you please elaborate on your decision criteria for entry based on group of indicators you are using (and have also kindly provided for us)?

I DO NOT really use the Indicators for Entry Signals but rather to give me a feel for what is going on in the Market (along with PRICE, which to me is the King of all Indicators). You do not need these Indicators to Trade the Strategy and can use any Indicators that you like or prefer. Having said that, I suggest that you watch the Indicators for some time to develop a feel for what they appear to be saying, meaning, is the Market Trending or Ranging. I do use the ADR Indicator and stay away when the Daily Range seems to be lower than usual on a particular Pair. Mainly I focus on Support and Resistance on a 30 Minute Chart, looking to Sell at Resistance (or just above) and Buy at Support (or just below). My objective is to try and find an area where I can lessen the probability of my tight Stop getting hit very often and where the Market seems to have room to move either 40 Pips in my selected direction or 50 Pips in the Opposite direction.


3/ Can you please clarify how the system/ EA reacts to the broker blowing out the spread, to say 20 pips for ~3 minutes, during volatile news releases?

I saw some comment on this in a post earlier but I am still trying to understand how it actually has affected your live trading...presumablely you get a number of rapid/instant open, close, reverse direction, open, close, reverse direction .... causing some build up of loosing trades??? Yet your response was that it didn't cause you too much of a problem... can you please explain further.

(Obvioulsy one solution is not to trade with the EA until the spreads have settled down again....)

As I stated earlier, Spread widening can be a cause of some concern, however, it MAINLY occurs (and lasts the longest) during the NY Session. Generally, I do NOT prefer to enter during NY, PRIOR to the News. Having said that, often times, when I have entered well before News, I am only affected by the spread increase if my Entry and Stops are still very close to my Initial Entry price. If my trade has moved away from being near a Stop area then often times the volatility at News Time can get me out by hitting a target. Of course, there have been times that I have been caught in the wrong place and there are a few options. If I am still at an early position in the Sequence when the Spread widening occurs then I don't usually have too much of a problem. What happens is I do get a rapid succession of SL getting hit but then the market does usually move away from the Stop area rather quickly. In that case I have noticed that instead of the Sequence closing at the 4th or 5th Level, it may reach the 10th or 12th because of the Stops getting hit often and quickly. On occasion, I have turned the EA off (not removed from the chart, but toggled off) for a couple of minutes if the spread seems to be staying wide for too long. I can then toggle it back on when things return to normal and the EA will continue its Sequence from that point. Having said the above, I try NOT to enter the Initial Entry very close to news time. I suggest you test the EA during all different Market conditions to see how it behaves.

Another option is to try and find a Fixed Spread MT4 Broker. I can think of 1 and have a small Account with them that I am currently testing. In this case we will get requotes more often, however, the EA will continue sending an order until it is filled so we may not get the exact price we were looking for but we will not get the rapid SL being hit issue either. This is merely something I am looking into at this time. The downside is that this Broker only offers 100:1 leverage.

As previoulsy discussed the key to longevity for this type of 'marty' trading is the entry decision - the tool merely lowers the risk of being wrong. The nature of the 'risk structure' (i.e. the Martingale approach) and the system itself means that getting the entry correct is really the only critical issue.

I agree with the above point....

It is easy to see why you have been successful using this tool - since for most traders the entry is (relatively speaking) the easy part to work out, and the more difficult parts are the MM and the exit (mainly due to self imposed psychological pressures).

Looking forward to your response to my questions. Well done.

Tim
  • #77
  • Aug 19, 2007 8:55am Aug 19, 2007 8:55am
Quoting FXTradepro
Hello superdezign.................Perhaps you should read the entire Thread before commenting. We do close our previous position when we reverse direction and we do realize the loss. The aggregate losses are overtaken when we eventually hit our target.

Dan

My apologies
  • #78
  • Aug 19, 2007 9:04am Aug 19, 2007 9:04am
Quoting superdezign
My apologies

superdezign.........No apology required, but I do appreciate the gesture.

Thanks,

Dan
  • #79
  • Edited 2:25pm Aug 19, 2007 10:38am | Edited 2:25pm
I won't reinvest profit in this system because, One day your initial deposit will be probably all lost but the odds are so small. You will probably make a lot more money before . You must have some experience to trade system like that. avoiding big news and only trading during volatile hour and I think you will have some serious success with this system. I trade forex for more than 4 years and I tried and created a lot of systems but this one is by far the most logical. Most trader have good strategy but poor money management, if so this ea is for you.
sorry for my bad english but my first language is french.
  • #80
  • Aug 19, 2007 10:49am Aug 19, 2007 10:49am
Quoting gambler997
I won't reinvest profit in this system because, One day your initial deposit will be probably all lost but the odds are so small. You will probably make a lot more money before . You must have some experience to trade system like that. avoiding big news and only trading during volatile hour and I think you will have some serious success with this system. I trade forex for more than 4 years and I tried and created a lot of systems but this one is by far the most logical. Most trader have good strategys but poor moneymanegement, if so this ea is for you.
sorry for my bad english but my first language is french.

gamber997,

Thank you for your comments, your english is fine.
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