Market Insights by Hasti

Gold Technical Analysis: Potential Break Above $4000
Spot gold has broken the $3793 resistance and surpassed the September 23 high of $3791, confirming an uptrend from $3311. The next target is seen in the $3827–3847 range. Based on recent consolidation between $3719 and $3793, prices may rise to $3862.
Support lies between $3759 and $3772; a break below could trigger a drop to $3719.
On the daily chart, long-term targets are between $4031 and $4109, with a realistic target at $3905, representing 200% of the wave starting from $3246.

Cautious AUD/USD Rise; Focus on Inflation and RBA Policy
AUD/USD continues to strengthen, supported by two key factors:
The potential U.S. government shutdown from October 1st, which is weighing on the USD
Australia’s stronger-than-expected inflation data, which has lowered expectations for near-term RBA rate cuts.
Australia’s budget deficit through June 2025 is projected at AUD 10B, far below the Treasury’s earlier estimate of AUD 27.9B — a sign of stronger fiscal health.
Technical view: On the H4 chart, AUD/USD is rebounding near the 48-day balance line. MACD lines and histogram are expanding below the zero axis, suggesting continued volatility.
Rate cut expectations:
Sept meeting: only 6.5% probability
Nov meeting: 38.2% probability
Resistance: 0.6630 / 0.6670
Support: 0.6540 / 0.6500

U.S.–Australia Critical Minerals Agreement
Fundamental:
U.S. President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Albanese signed a rare earth and critical minerals agreement on Monday at the White House. Albanese called it an $8.5 billion ready-to-go project. As part of the agreement, both sides agreed to cut approval procedures for mining and processing operations to boost production. They also plan to jointly invest over $3 billion in the next six months. The estimated resource value of the projects is $53 billion.
Technical:
On the H4 AUD/USD chart, price is fluctuating and hovering near the 48-period equilibrium line.
MACD lines and histogram bars are converging near the zero axis, showing lack of clear market direction.
Key Levels:
1st Resistance: 0.6530
2nd Resistance: 0.6570
1st Support: 0.6440
2nd Support: 0.6400

Euro to USD Analysis
The movement of the euro is driven by economic data and trade developments in the Eurozone. Surveys indicate that Eurozone business activity in October grew faster than expected, especially in the services sector, and the PMI exceeded market forecasts, providing immediate support. Although weak US CPI benefits the euro, market pricing for a Fed rate cut is already fully reflected and has not amplified euro gains. Meanwhile, expectations for leader meetings inject some optimism into the euro, with investors hoping that trade easing will boost Eurozone exports.
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has faced resistance on the H4 chart and has pulled back, trading near the 48-day buy/sell boundary. Also, the MACD lines and volume bars have decreased near the zero axis. Key indicators this week, such as Germany’s business confidence index, labor market report, Eurozone unemployment rate, and GDP, will test economic resilience.
Key Levels
1st Resistance: 1.1680
1st Support: 1.1570
2nd Resistance: 1.1730
2nd Support: 1.1520

Gold Analysis
Fundamental
Senior officials from China and the U.S. have reached a consensus on the framework of a potential trade agreement, which has eased market concerns, but negotiations are not yet concluded. Additionally, with major central bank events approaching, investors are reluctant to take new bearish positions on gold, making this the key factor behind current price fluctuations.
However, risks of escalating geopolitical tensions persist, providing some safe-haven demand support and preventing prices from dropping too far.
Technical
On the H4 gold chart, prices are oscillating and rebounding but still trading below the 48-day long/short demarcation line. Additionally, MACD lines and volume bars are shrinking below the zero axis.
Market attention will focus on Fed Chair Powell’s policy statement and press conference, particularly any forward guidance, as these will directly influence gold’s future trend direction.
Resistance & Support
1st resistance: 3977.00
1st support: 3940.00
2nd resistance: 3995.00
2nd support: 3920.00

Fundamental: Gold hit a historic $4,000. A new wave of capital from crypto, led by stablecoin giant Tether, is entering gold mining and investing heavily. Around $370T of financial assets are shifting into physical assets, faster than expected.
Technical: On H4, gold is oscillating below the 48-day trend line. MACD and volume histogram formed a bullish Golden Cross, suggesting potential price rise to support central banks’ goal of over 50% gold reserves.
Key Levels:
Resistance 1: 3977 | Support 1: 3940
Resistance 2: 3995 | Support 2: 3920

Crude Oil Analysis
Fundamental:
Market focus is on the White House meeting between President Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán. Investors hope this meeting could pave the way for Hungary to continue using Russian oil, easing supply concerns linked to sanctions.
Meanwhile, data from Asia show a positive outlook — October crude imports rose both month-on-month and year-on-year, signaling steady demand.
Technical:
On the 4-hour chart, crude oil has slightly rebounded and is fluctuating near the 48-day equilibrium line. The MACD is expanding below the zero axis, indicating downward pressure. U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected due to higher imports and slower refinery activity, creating selling pressure; however, declining gasoline and distillate inventories provided some support.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 63.00 – 65.00
Support: 58.00 – 56.00

Spot gold dropped nearly 2%!
Reason: Cooling expectations for Fed rate cut in December and strong US Dollar Index, Dollar rises → Dollar-denominated gold becomes more expensive for other currency holders → demand drops
Fed comments:
Vice Chair: rate cuts should be gradual
Waller: rate cut is risk-management only , not a sign of economic deterioration
Upcoming data:
September Non-Farm Payrolls
October unemployment rate & CPI not released
Gold’s main drivers:
No longer just rate cuts
“Geopolitical + financial risk + central bank gold buying”
Rate cuts only short-term catalyst
Market outlook:
Short-term: $4,000 level under pressure ️, support $3,900–$3,950
Mid/long-term: central bank buying + global tensions + falling real rates → supportive for gold

Oppenheimer believes IBM’s shift toward software and AI will support sustained growth in revenue and profit margins. They set a 12–18 month price target of $360 and see strong contributions from HashiCorp and RedHat. IBM’s consulting segment is also expected to grow steadily as demand for software development and management increases. With companies expanding their use of AI tools, IBM is viewed as well-positioned, and buying the stock around $287 is considered reasonable.

It’s almost certain that the Fed will cut rates again, but the key question is how Powell will talk about the possibility of further easing next month. Markets expect a rate cut with a slightly hawkish tone, meaning Powell may avoid signaling another cut in January to satisfy the hawkish members of the committee.
Bank of America says Powell is facing the biggest internal disagreement in years, so delivering a “hawkish cut” won’t be easy—especially with several major economic data releases coming before the next meeting.
Powell will likely emphasize that after this cut, rates will be close to neutral, and any further easing will depend on a clear deterioration in the labor market.
The dollar index remains in a mild downtrend, and markets currently assign only a 25% chance of a January rate cut, though BoA believes Powell may still leave the door slightly open.

Silver futures prices dropped significantly today, with March contracts settling at around $70.46 per ounce, marking a decline of approximately 8.73%. This decrease was mainly driven by profit-taking after prices reached recent record highs, amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties that typically boost demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
At the same time, the crisis between the United States and Venezuela and the military actions ordered against Venezuelan facilities have added psychological pressure on the precious metals market. Conflicting economic data from the U.S. housing market and a drop of over 13% in platinum also reflect the overall negative market sentiment and contributed to the decline in silver prices.

AUDUSD Analysis
Fundamental: Citi economists believe Australia’s inflation data could strengthen expectations for RBA rate hikes in February and May . The market is currently underpricing this risk, which may increase short-term bond sell-off pressure.
Technical: AUD/USD is moving in a range with a bullish bias on the H4 timeframe, trading above its equilibrium level. The MACD indicator is showing expanding momentum . However, slower housing price growth could weigh on market sentiment .
Key Levels:
Resistance: 0.6760 – 0.6800
Support: 0.6670 – 0.6630

Trading Asset: Pinduoduo (NASDAQ: PDD)
Freedom Capital Markets has raised Pinduoduo’s price target from $140 to $170 and maintained its Buy rating. The stock is still considered undervalued, with some analysts setting targets as high as $201. This upgrade follows strong quarterly performance and the company’s successful adaptation to U.S. tariffs and tax policy changes.
Despite generating $58.8 billion in revenue and achieving 12.5% growth, margin pressure is expected to continue in the medium term; however, buying the stock around the $117 level could be an attractive opportunity.

Intel’s Comeback Driven by the AI Wave
Intel shares have risen about 31% at the start of 2026, reaching their highest level in nearly two years. Investor optimism is driven by strong demand for AI chips and progress in Intel’s foundry business.
Advancements in Intel 18A technology have increased hopes that Intel could become the world’s second-largest contract chip manufacturer. The potential to attract major customers such as Apple, along with shortages in TSMC’s advanced capacity, is working in Intel’s favor. Support from the U.S. government and Intel’s geopolitical position are also seen as key strategic advantages.
Market Analysis
The next catalyst for Intel investors is likely next week’s earnings report. Based on analysts’ average forecasts, Intel’s revenue is expected to decline by about 1% in 2025, but could grow by 3% in 2026.

Gold Daily Analysis
To quickly monitor gold purchases by central banks, investors refer to the UK’s foreign trade data.
As London is the world’s largest gold trading hub, the UK’s monthly non-monetary gold exports serve as a reliable indicator for estimating central bank gold buying.
Following the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022, central bank gold purchases have nearly doubled.
Technical:
Gold remains in an uptrend on the H4 timeframe and is trading above the 48-period bull/bear line.Both the MACD lines and the histogram are strengthening above the zero line.
ETF fund flow data allows near real-time tracking of retail gold demand, while central bank demand remains difficult to quantify.
Resistance: 5227.00 / 5245.00
Support: 5190.00 / 5172.00

Daily Oil Analysis
Fundamental:
Abundant global oil supply continues to keep prices under pressure, giving the U.S. greater flexibility in applying geopolitical pressure (including on Iran) without concern over sharp price spikes. Although Middle East tensions remain under close watch, fundamental factors are currently weighing on oil prices. Weak U.S. labor market data has also increased concerns about slowing economic growth in the world’s largest oil consumer.
Technical:
On the H4 timeframe, oil has entered a corrective phase after a decline and is trading near the 48-period balance line. MACD is hovering around the zero line, indicating the absence of a strong trend.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 66.00 / 68.00
Support: 61.00 / 59.00

Trading Product: Salesforce (NYSE: CRM)
Salesforce (NYSE: CRM) reported continued double-digit revenue growth in its latest earnings report. Its AI product Agentforce is expanding rapidly, reaching $800 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR), up 169% year-over-year, with over 29,000 quarterly deals.
However, some analysts believe the company needs faster overall revenue acceleration. The report suggests considering a buying opportunity around $190.

Gold Remains Bullish Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Weak Dollar.
Following Ali Khamenei’s death, geopolitical risks and political instability have risen. U.S. and Israeli pressure on Iran is unlikely to ease soon, keeping regional uncertainty high and supporting gold.
Gold’s rally this year has also been driven by Fed rate cut expectations, a weaker dollar, and rising inflation concerns. Lower Treasury yields and ongoing central bank purchases provide additional support.
Escalating Middle East tensions may boost volatility in oil, gold, and silver, while pressuring global equities.
Technically, gold is in an uptrend on H4 (expanding MACD), but short-term volatility and pullback risk near recent highs remain.

Trump’s suspension of strikes boosted market risk appetite, easing fears of Middle East energy supply disruptions. Falling oil prices can lower global inflation expectations by 0.2–0.4%, supporting gold pricing. Technically, gold H4 is oscillating below the 48-day moving average. MACD lines and volume bars expand below zero, showing ongoing support.
Resistance & Support:
First resistance: 4370.00 First support: 4330.00
Second resistance: 4390.00 Second support: 4310.00

Strong Dollar Pressures Gold;
Following the breakdown of U.S.–Iran negotiations and rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on gold. Despite geopolitical risks, higher interest rate expectations and a strong dollar have limited gold’s upside.
Technical:
On the H4 timeframe, gold is in a corrective phase, trading near the 48-period equilibrium line. The MACD is also converging around the zero line, indicating weak momentum.
Resistance: 4740 / 4757
Support: 4700 / 4682