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  • #141
  • Oct 21, 2025 9:12pm Oct 21, 2025 9:12pm
bw fly with vert tail protection, enter end of 2dte and manage @1dte. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is...(note the ratios)

Entry at 1dte close does not work, look further at 3dte, 4dte close entries, etc. Also look at using the vert @ 1 day longer than the fly.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #142
  • Oct 22, 2025 10:45am Oct 22, 2025 10:45am
I need a name for this combo. It worked out well. It went on for a $105 debit. I lost $$195 on the bwf and made $600 on the 2-lot 10-wide put vert. Best case is to take these off early in decent profit, rather than waiting for the bfw guts pin near the close.

I will post a pic of the end state, but it's clear the worst case is you hold and price goes to just short of the far wing at the close (@6690)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #143
  • Oct 22, 2025 10:56am Oct 22, 2025 10:56am
Quoting The Fool
I need a name for this combo.
Broke-a-dope? BWF+Vert? Hi-Lo Fly?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #144
  • Oct 22, 2025 11:24am Oct 22, 2025 11:24am
scoping 10/23....you can go 1:1 fly:vert if you make the vert tall enough. Looking to enter in the last 1-2hr of 10/22

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #145
  • Edited 1:29pm Oct 22, 2025 12:52pm | Edited 1:29pm
with TSLA IBM reporting ah, I want to have something on QQQ or NDX for a decent 1-day translation...

risking $800 on the double fly, either one could return >10x that with a good close Thurs.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #146
  • Oct 22, 2025 2:18pm Oct 22, 2025 2:18pm
Quoting The Fool
...risking $800 on the double fly, either one could return >10x that with a good close Thurs. {image}
I'll take what I can get and a large return will have to come near the close of 10/23...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #147
  • Oct 22, 2025 2:47pm Oct 22, 2025 2:47pm
SPX hi-lo for Thurs. Risking $150 call side only, betting on a btfd day off good TSLA and IBM earnings.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #148
  • Oct 22, 2025 10:18pm Oct 22, 2025 10:18pm
idk....persistent shutdown & airports closed, hurricanes, asteroids, need something to drop it 5%?

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #149
  • Oct 23, 2025 5:55am Oct 23, 2025 5:55am
Quoting The Fool
.. risking $800 on the double fly, either one could return >10x that with a good close Thurs. {image}
This one not looking too good, after equivocal TSLA & IBM results. If we can get a small rally at the open, I'll make some money. B/Es are about 24950 and 24550. I'll probly look to close the put side early and cross fingers for the calls.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #150
  • Oct 23, 2025 6:05am Oct 23, 2025 6:05am
Quoting The Fool
SPX hi-lo for Thurs. Risking $150 call side only, betting on a btfd day off good TSLA and IBM earnings.
best case for hi-lo calls is a solid run up ... futs not showing much for a rally today, though. With risk so small, I don't mind waiting...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #151
  • Oct 23, 2025 6:10am Oct 23, 2025 6:10am
closing orders for the 10/24 fly stack. I am risking about $2400 total for all of them and if SPX settles around 6700 into Friday, there's a coupla 2-lot call flys that'll cover that. I may cash those out today and then sit back and see what Friday brings.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #152
  • Oct 23, 2025 9:24am Oct 23, 2025 9:24am
I like flys. Trying to see if weekly Flys @x% is a good play.

I'm playing with some probabilities around weekly % open to close.

Last SPX 15 years open to close variation % attached.

For 1% and 0% only need a cost to profit ratio of 1 to 10.

Experimenting 1 lot (starting this week + - 1% away from opening price) with $0.50cents cost for max premium of $14.50. If I close it for $5.00, doing it all 52 weeks, will have aprox. 30% on max capital invested. If near the max value (25% for +1% and 14%for -1%) the numbers could be better.

Testing waters...
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Ready for War
  • #153
  • Oct 23, 2025 9:39am Oct 23, 2025 9:39am
Quoting AJR
I like flys. Trying to see if weekly Flys @x% is a good play. I'm playing with some probabilities around weekly % open to close. Last SPX 15 years open to close variation % attached. For 1% and 0% only need a cost to profit ratio of 1 to 10. Experimenting 1 lot (starting this week + - 1% away from opening price) with $0.50cents cost for max premium of $14.50. If I close it for $5.00, doing it all 52 weeks, will have aprox. 30% on max capital invested. If near the max value (25% for +1% and 14%for -1%) the numbers could be better. Testing waters......
I don't quite follow this, AJR. Looks interesting though, so please flesh out further....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #154
  • Oct 23, 2025 9:42am Oct 23, 2025 9:42am
Quoting The Fool
{quote} This one not looking too good, after equivocal TSLA & IBM results. If we can get a small rally at the open, I'll make some money. B/Es are about 24950 and 24550. I'll probly look to close the put side early and cross fingers for the calls. {image}
Closed the NDX call fly for $7, will close the puts for whatever in a while. I'll try this again when we have big tech earnings overnight.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #155
  • Oct 23, 2025 9:52am Oct 23, 2025 9:52am
Today's hi-lo another winner, but smaller. Risked $150 and made $260. I won't do one for Friday, will wait til Monday open to see what's what.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #156
  • Oct 23, 2025 12:03pm Oct 23, 2025 12:03pm
I will try an XSP hi-lo for Friday....look for the 670 handle pin
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #157
  • Oct 23, 2025 6:41pm Oct 23, 2025 6:41pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote}Closed the NDX call fly for $7, will close the puts for whatever in a while. I'll try this again when we have big tech earnings overnight.
$7.50 out....here's the end-state, looks like it went to $10.50.
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Tough to bet against tech, but I took another shot, as below. A lotto bet on a dump off a hot CPI.
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Love these NDX lotto tix. I'ma hit one for big gain someday I knows it...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #158
  • Oct 27, 2025 1:21am Oct 27, 2025 1:21am
opening hi-lo Friday.... Total was a $325 debit
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Closing order for Monday...as shown, a $780 winner. I haven't lost one of these hi-lo's yet. This is the biggest winner, although we'll see what I walk away with...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #159
  • Oct 27, 2025 1:32pm Oct 27, 2025 1:32pm
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hi-lo for Tues. Not sure I will put it on. We may get some flat-lining going into Fed Wednesday
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #160
  • Oct 27, 2025 2:36pm Oct 27, 2025 2:36pm
95c debit for the puts, $1.20 for the calls, $2.15 total debit. I think we'll see some flat but a little pullback would be nice pre-FOMC

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these do much better with 2:1 vert:fly, but we'll see
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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