Superfly!

The call fly closed around $1.80.

For today's combo, the XSPs cleared $90 and the SPX cleared $160, net $250...ok.

I expect Thursday will be even tigher, pre NFP, and there was some positively comatose PA in the spoos today.

Yep.

No 0dte trades today, but a variety of trades set to catch a decent chunk of market move tomorrow. In NDX...






...@ net debit $5.50, paid too much for these spreads, but if NDX will pop +/- 300-700 I will be smiling. Setting $12 tp for both sides.

@ RUT....




...will take $10 out....

SPX


$10 out here; have the usual XSP verts to hedge the SPX trades. I am looking for a relatively calm 1% move either way.....

A break below 6450 into the close will save my ass in this mess....

Easy day with the predictable bull upgrind. I may deploy again to catch something at the close.

...what seems to work usually on these fly plays is keep em tight and put something on to guard the tails. By tight I mean get the inside wing strike as close to atm as fits your risk tolerance. I am trying to spend $2.50 max for a fly with 15pt wings. Call skew lately means call flys are a bit pricier. For the hedge I'd look to have calls/put atm or verticals starting atm. You can loosen up a bit if ATR is elevated, but lately we are still in pretty sluggish pa....

OM! Great Mother Tara, Please save us from Samsara! Buddha Bless us!!! Tara Bless us!!!

gimme a break to 6485?

and a quick 2x...I should be more patient but I've learned to take these doubles when I see them. If I were shooting more units I'd hold some out....$1,035 net on the day, pretty good Monday


That's a classic intraday lunchtime dump & pump...

25pt inside spinner on the day. Channels can be milked for doubles. Probably see the same til mid-week and more inflation data.

Not on the FF calendar is the annual NFP revision - looking for an even bigger negative number, we'll see. If I'm right, it could sink equities for a minute. So I'm expecting SPX to uptick the first hour, and then....

Looking for good moves off CPI tomorrow.


Fairly positive stocks will jump on cooling CPI, but playing both sides because who knows....?

Will maybe see some movement after Michigan data at 1000? Data at 1000 is good, lets me wait on entry a bit.

Monotonous 1-way market needs some downside, especially prior to next week's FOMC. I have to guess crummy MI data opens the door to a dip to 6550 today...

entered 1100 EDT...in for $5.25, want to net out >$3

entered the above with SPX @ 6590...I thought we'd at least get a 10-pt move off the mid today. If I'm wrong I'll pay the price....

took off the calls at $5.50, netting about $2.50 on the call fly, which will cover the puts. I didn't like the look of this weakshit PA & glad to get out, perhaps a dump in the last hour could take it back down to something profitable for the puts.

Note the p/l, as time advances the actual and theoretical profit lines tend to merge, important to watch both if you are playing for the endgame payout. Range today looking like it will be <30, maybe <25, ...looking forward to some more vol.

Took the puts off for $0.75. Net gain for the day $1.00. I can usually eke out something on these on all but the absolutely deadest days. So, just need to be able to anticipate days that will move vs those that will not. For big move days, the guts of 2 flys would be further apart, and there might be XSP verticals to hedge tail risk. Either of those would have been problematic today.

...gave up on the puts too early, though. This is the move I thot we'd get off the Michigan data....