Market Fundamental Analysis by RoboForex

US 30 forecast: the upward trend continues, the resistance level has not yet been breached

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index trend remains fragile. The outlook for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US JOLTS Job Openings for September came in at 7.23M
2. Market impact: confirms economic resilience and revenue support for cyclical companies

Fundamental analysis

The JOLTS report showed 7.23M job openings versus a forecast of 7.19M and 7.21M in the previous month. This points to sustained labour demand and underlines the resilience of the job market. Although the increase was modest, it reduces the likelihood of a swift easing of labour market tightness and could maintain upward pressure on wages and core services inflation.

The small upside surprise strengthens the case for the Federal Reserve to take a cautious approach to policy easing. Expectations for aggressive rate cuts in the near term have diminished, while long-term bond yields may stay elevated. This increases the sensitivity of equity markets to rate dynamics and inflation expectations.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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JP 225 forecast: index corrects after hitting new all-time high

The JP 225 index is undergoing a correction, although the broader uptrend remains intact. The JP 225 forecast for today is negative.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Tokyo core CPI came in at 2.5% year-on-year
2. Market impact: the impact on the Japanese equity market is moderately positive

Fundamental analysis

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index stood at 2.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 2.8% and unchanged from the prior month. This shows that inflationary pressure in Japan’s largest metropolitan area remains stable and softer than expected. For equity markets, this reduces the likelihood of accelerated monetary policy normalisation by the Bank of Japan. The case for aggressive tightening has weakened, which supports valuations for assets sensitive to discount rates.

For the JP 225 index, the overall impact is moderately positive. Softer inflation lowers the risk of sharp rises in yields and capital costs. On the currency side, this increases the likelihood of a weaker yen, which improves overseas revenue conversion for exporters and supports their stock performance, creating a positive ripple across the index.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

AUDUSD consolidates around 0.6600

The AUDUSD rate settled around the 0.6600 level amid ongoing uncertainty over US government funding. Discover more in our analysis for 3 October 2025.

AUDUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: the US Department of Labor postponed the release of unemployment rate and Nonfarm Payrolls statistics
2. Current trend: range-bound trading
3. AUDUSD forecast for 3 October 2025: 0.6577 or 0.6630

Fundamental analysis

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Thursday that the government shutdown could negatively impact GDP growth, while President Donald Trump threatened mass federal worker layoffs to pressure Democrats.

The shutdown has also delayed key economic data as the Department of Labor postponed Friday’s release of the September Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Australian dollar received support from the Reserve Bank of Australia after policymakers warned of higher-than-expected inflation. Markets are now pricing in only about a 45% chance of a rate cut at the 4 November meeting, compared to nearly 100% odds priced in a month ago.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

EURUSD on pause: everyone is waiting for US news

The EURUSD pair has settled within the 1.1727 range. The market is conserving energy while awaiting news on the US government shutdown. Discover more in our analysis for 6 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The EURUSD pair is consolidating sideways amid uncertainty surrounding the US government shutdown
2. With no fresh headlines, investors are watching secondary data releases
3. EURUSD forecast for 6 October 2025: 1.1660 or 1.1780

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate remains neutral around 1.1727 amid concerns over the consequences of the prolonged US government shutdown. Congress once again failed to agree on a temporary budget, leading to the suspension of several federal programs and the delay of key macroeconomic reports, including the September Nonfarm Payrolls.

On the monetary front, markets continue to price in two Federal Reserve rate cuts in October and December, each by 25 basis points. Recent data have strengthened expectations that the Fed will maintain its policy easing trajectory.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 500 forecast: the index hit new all-time high

The US 500 index continued to reach new all-time highs within the ongoing uptrend. The US 500 forecast for today is positive.

US 500 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US ISM services prices for September came in at 69.4
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately negative effect on the US stock market

Fundamental analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing prices index for October 2025 reached 69.4, slightly above the forecast of 68.0 and only marginally higher than the previous reading of 69.2. Rising prices in the non-manufacturing sector indicate persistent inflationary pressure in the services industry, the key segment of the US economy. For market participants, this is a signal that inflationary processes remain stable despite the gradual cooling of the manufacturing sector. Such dynamics may strengthen expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at elevated levels for longer than previously anticipated. As a result, investors may act cautiously, particularly towards companies sensitive to changes in borrowing costs.

For the US 500, the released data could have a moderately negative impact. Elevated prices in the services sector reduce the likelihood of an imminent monetary policy easing, which could limit short-term growth of the index. However, since the figure only slightly exceeded expectations, the market reaction is likely to remain balanced.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the index hit a new all-time high and entered a correction

After reaching a new all-time high, the US 30 index has begun to decline, although the overall trend remains upward. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: US services PMI (preliminary) came in at 54.2 in September
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the stock market

Fundamental analysis

The US services PMI for October 2025 stood at 54.2, slightly above the forecast of 53.9 but marginally below the previous reading of 54.5. A PMI reading above 50.0 indicates an expansion in business activity in the service sector, which remains the primary driver of the US economy. A stronger-than-expected reading signals steady demand and positive sentiment among businesses, supporting expectations of moderate economic growth without signs of overheating. For the equity market, such data is generally viewed positively, as it confirms the resilience of corporate earnings and overall economic activity.

However, the slight decline compared to the previous month may be interpreted as a sign that the economy is gradually stabilising after a phase of robust expansion. This reduces overheating concerns but may also temper excessive investor optimism. For the US 30 index, the PMI results are moderately positive.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index hit two consecutive all-time highs

The JP 225 stock index continues to rise after reaching a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s current account for August 2025 stood at 3.77 trillion JPY
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the Japanese stock market

Fundamental analysis

The increase in Japan’s current account surplus indicates a strong foreign economic position: exports of goods and services, along with income from overseas investments, exceed imports and external payments. This reflects the resilience of Japan’s economy and its ability to maintain a positive balance, which is generally viewed as a fundamentally supportive signal. A higher surplus can boost investor confidence in Japan’s economic stability, strengthen the yen, and attract additional capital inflows to domestic markets.

For the JP 225 index, the overall effect is moderately positive. Shares of semiconductor-related companies showed elevated volatility. The index hit another all-time high on Monday after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party elected staunch conservative Sanae Takaichi as its new leader on Saturday, paving the way for her to become Japan’s first female prime minister. This political development lifted investor sentiment.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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The RoboForex Team

USDJPY rises to the 153.00 area

The USDJPY rate is on the rise, climbing to around 153.00 following the recent elections in Japan. Discover more in our analysis for 10 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: Japan’s PPI rose by 0.3% in September
2. Current trend: upward momentum persists
3. USDJPY forecast for 10 October 2025: 154.00 or 152.00

Fundamental analysis

The pair continues its upward trajectory after Sanae Takaichi won Japan’s election for the position of prime minister, reinforcing expectations of increased fiscal spending and a dovish monetary policy stance.

Takaichi stated that the Bank of Japan would conduct policy independently while aligning with government objectives, adding that she aims to avoid excessive yen weakening, although her comments failed to support the currency. Markets now estimate the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike in December at less than 50%, with expectations shifting towards March next year.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDCAD prepares for an upward breakout – oil and the Bank of Canada weigh on CAD

Following positive data from Canada, the USDCAD pair has entered a correction phase and are preparing to rise towards 1.4050. Find out more in our analysis for 13 October 2025.

USDCAD forecast: key trading points

1. The Canadian dollar is attempting to recover its position
2. Employment growth exceeded all forecasts
3. USDCAD forecast for 13 October 2025: 1.3995

Fundamental analysis

Today’s USDCAD forecast remains unfavorable for the CAD despite employment growth.

Canada’s labour market surprised with a sharp rise in employment, with the Canadian economy adding 60,400 new jobs in September, far surpassing the forecast of 5 thousand. The strong employment data casts doubt on the likelihood of another Bank of Canada rate cut. As a result, the US dollar slightly weakened against the Canadian dollar, and the USDCAD pair entered a corrective pullback after its recent rise.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) soars above 4,100 USD

XAUUSD prices continue to strengthen, setting a new all-time high around 4,170 USD amid ongoing US dollar weakness. Find more details in our analysis for 14 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: the US government shutdown continues
2. Current trend: trending upwards
3. XAUUSD forecast for 14 October 2025: 4,250 or 4,100

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices exceeded 4,100 USD per ounce, setting a new all-time record amid escalating trade tensions between the US and China and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.

Gold’s rally intensified after President Donald Trump reignited trade disputes with Beijing, fuelling concerns among investors and driving demand for safe-haven assets. Traders are now pricing in a 97% likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in October and fully expect another reduction in December.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

USDJPY falls after Powell’s comments on a weak labour market

The USDJPY rate remains under pressure amid US dollar weakness and rising demand for safe-haven assets, currently trading at 151.19. Discover more in our analysis for 15 October 2025.

USDJPY forecast: key trading points

1. Political uncertainty persists in Japan following the collapse of the coalition with the Komeito party
2. Political events in Japan have increased investor interest in the yen
3. China’s refusal to import US soybeans has heightened global trade risks
4. USDJPY forecast for 15 October 2025: 151.30 and 153.20

Fundamental analysis

The USDJPY rate is declining for the second consecutive session. Pressure on the US dollar intensified after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted signs of labour market weakness in his recent remarks. These comments reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts, triggering a sell-off in the dollar.

The yen also strengthened amid political developments in Japan. Markets are watching whether Sanae Takaichi, leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, can assume the role of prime minister following the coalition’s split with the Komeito party. Takaichi supports higher government spending and a continuation of loose monetary policy – typically a bearish factor for the yen but supportive for the stock market.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

EURUSD maintains bullish momentum amid political uncertainty in the US

The EURUSD rate continues to strengthen amid US dollar weakness and expectations of further Federal Reserve policy easing, currently standing at 1.1659. Find out more in our analysis for 16 October 2025.

EURUSD forecast: key trading points

1. The US government shutdown continues into its third week, delaying the release of key macroeconomic data
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell noted signs of labour market weakness, reinforcing expectations for a rate cut this month
3. Markets anticipate another cut in December and three more next year

Fundamental analysis

The EURUSD rate is rising for the third consecutive session, showing a steady recovery after a prolonged correction. Buyers defended the 1.1550 level, increasing the likelihood that the downtrend has ended and a bullish impulse is underway. The US dollar remains under pressure from ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, the prolonged government shutdown, and expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.

The shutdown, now entering its third week, has delayed the publication of crucial economic reports that could influence policy decisions. In his latest remarks, Jerome Powell highlighted signs of labour market weakness, strengthening investor expectations for a rate cut this month, followed by another in December and three additional cuts in 2026.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Rising gold imports into India drive XAUUSD higher

XAUUSD quotes continue their steady upward momentum, reflecting a combination of strong fundamental and technical market support. The rate currently stands at 4,365 USD. Discover more in our analysis for 17 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. India’s gold imports reached 9.615 billion USD in September 2025
2. Renewed US-China trade tensions have strengthened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset
3. XAUUSD forecast for 17 October 2025: 4,440

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD prices continue to rise for the sixth consecutive trading session. According to the latest data, India’s gold imports in September 2025 totalled 9.615 billion USD, up 110% from September 2024 and 80% higher than in August 2025. The upcoming festive season, which traditionally fuels demand for precious metals, is providing additional support to buying activity.

Growth is also driven by renewed trade tensions between the US and China and growing concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index continues to decline

The DE 40 stock index remains under pressure, although the pace of decline slowed significantly at the end of last week. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s PPI decreased by 0.5% in September 2025
2. Market impact: the data creates a mixed backdrop for the German stock market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s latest Producer Price Index (PPI) for September showed a 0.5% month-on-month decline, compared to an expected fall of just 0.1%. This indicates that price pressure at the producer level is easing faster than anticipated. For the stock market, this is a crucial signal on two fronts – capital cost (interest rate expectations) and corporate earnings (balance between demand and costs). If the decline in PPI persists alongside a deterioration in leading indicators such as PMI and industrial orders, the market may need to revise its revenue forecasts – a clear risk for cyclical stocks.

For the DE 40 index, the short-term baseline scenario points to a moderately positive reaction. However, the medium-term trajectory will depend on whether leading indicators such as PMI, industrial orders, and exports confirm a sustained weakness in demand. Conversely, if data shows that the PPI drop is temporary and not systemic, while orders remain stable, there will be more room for growth.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent prices fall to support at 60.00 USD

Brent crude prices have declined towards the 60.00 USD level, with market focus today on US oil inventory data from API. Find more details in our analysis for 21 October 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: US crude oil inventory data from API will be released today
2. Current trend: moving downwards
3. Brent forecast for 21 October 2025: 58.50 or 61.30

Fundamental analysis

Brent prices are moderately declining as growing concerns over a global oil supply glut and ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade negotiations keep the market under pressure.

Traders are closely monitoring the upcoming talks between US and Chinese officials in Malaysia, which are viewed as a key precursor to the expected summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping later this month.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

US 30 forecast: the index recovers from the decline and renews its all-time high

Volatility in the US 30 index remains elevated, with the trend reversing upwards once again. The US 30 forecast for today is positive.

US 30 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: the US federal budget balance came in at 198 billion USD
2. Market impact: the data has a moderately positive effect on the equity market

Fundamental analysis

The latest US federal budget data for October 2025 showed a surplus of 198 billion USD, far exceeding both the forecast of 42.3 billion USD and the previous figure of -345 billion USD. This improvement in the budget balance signals strong revenue inflows from tariffs, which could have a mixed macroeconomic impact on US equities. On the one hand, a positive budget balance reduces the government’s borrowing needs, which can ease pressure on Treasury yields – a development typically seen as supportive for the stock market.

For the US 30 index, the short-term reaction is likely to be moderately positive: a stronger fiscal position boosts confidence in the sustainability of public finances and reduces sovereign debt risks. However, in the medium term, the trajectory of the index will depend on whether investors interpret this surplus as a sign of underlying economic strength or not.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

JP 225 forecast: the index hits new all-time high

After a correction, the JP 225 stock index resumed its upward movement and reached a new all-time high. The JP 225 forecast for today is positive.

JP 225 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Japan’s balance of trade for September came in at –234.6 billion JPY
2. Market impact: the effect on the Japanese equity market is moderately negative

Fundamental analysis

Japan’s latest trade balance data for October 2025 showed a deficit of –234.6 billion JPY, compared with expectations for a 22 billion JPY surplus and a slightly smaller deficit in the previous period. This indicates that imports continue to outpace exports and that the trade gap is not narrowing. Such dynamics are typically interpreted as a sign of weakening external demand for Japanese goods and high sensitivity of the economy to imported energy resources. This raises the likelihood of lower industrial production figures and slower performance in export-oriented industries.

The release will likely send the JP 225 index lower. However, the downside potential is expected to be limited, as the negative trade data will be balanced by the Bank of Japan’s commitment to maintain ultra-loose monetary policy. Overall, these results increase the risk premium associated with external trade imbalances.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Gold (XAUUSD) pulls back after strong rally

XAUUSD prices declined to around 4,100 USD following last week’s sharp rally, when a new all-time high at 4,380 USD was reached. Find more details in our analysis for 24 October 2025.

XAUUSD forecast: key trading points

1. Market focus: investors await the outcome of US-China trade talks on tariffs
2. Current trend: moderately correcting
3. XAUUSD forecast for 24 October 2025: 4,380 or 4,000

Fundamental analysis

XAUUSD quotes fell by more than 5% this week, marking the largest intraday drop in five years. The sell-off coincided with significant outflows from gold-backed ETFs, which posted their largest one-day decline in assets in five months.

Nevertheless, gold remains up approximately 55% year-to-date, supported by ongoing trade tensions, with trade talks between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping taking centre stage next week. Geopolitical risks remain elevated following the new US sanctions on Russia, aimed at pressuring Moscow to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

DE 40 forecast: the index slightly recovered, but the decline continues

The DE 40 stock index has partially rebounded from its recent losses, but the overall trend remains bearish. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.

DE 40 forecast: key trading points

1. Recent data: Germany’s preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 in October 2025
2. Market impact: the data creates a mixed backdrop for the German equity market

Fundamental analysis

Germany’s manufacturing PMI for October came in at 49.6 points, slightly above both the consensus forecast of 49.5 and the previous reading of 49.5. The figure indicates that the industrial sector remains in contraction, but with signs of gradual stabilisation near the neutral threshold. For the equity market, this is a moderately positive signal in terms of expectations: the slower pace of decline in manufacturing supports the valuation of future cash flows in cyclical sectors, reduces the risk of margin erosion from underutilised capacity, and may help narrow discounts on industrial assets. However, since the indicator remains below 50, it continues to reflect weakness in domestic and external demand, limiting the upside potential and making it dependent on confirmation of improvement in subsequent data releases.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team

Brent forced to reassess its outlook

Brent crude prices have slipped to 65.86 USD per barrel as the market reacts swiftly to changing headlines and shifting sentiment. Details — in our analysis for 28 October 2025.

Brent forecast: key trading points

1. Brent continues to decline and may enter a sideways range.
2. Rapid changes in news flow are forcing investors to reassess the outlook.
3. Brent forecast for 28 October 2025: 64.00 and 63.50.

Fundamental analysis

On Tuesday, Brent crude oil fell for the third consecutive session, dropping to 64.86 USD per barrel amid growing concerns of oversupply following signals from OPEC+ about a potential output increase.

According to sources, at the upcoming Sunday meeting, members of the alliance are expected to discuss a moderate production hike for December, with Saudi Arabia reportedly pushing to regain lost market share.

RoboForex Market Analysis & Forex Forecasts

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Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team