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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #601
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:59pm Aug 15, 2007 9:59pm
Quoting newbietrader101
I am sorry dudes but I have been trying to talk Jacko round to posting his trades here live like he did on dailyFX but am hitting a brick wall, because he says that he has been there and done that and that his trading is now much less often and that it would be boring, especially at the moment when the euro is doing nothing but sitting like a pig in mud at 1.3450 so I will keep trying. he has been overseas for a while but told me the other day that he is setting up some serious long term short positions against the dow and nasdaq and is now just waiting for China market to come down with a big bump.
I posted this on 06-29-07. US europe and asia down like a beaten dog. China still to drop. china stock index up 300% this year. 300%
I hate that car I bought.
  • #602
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:04pm Aug 15, 2007 10:04pm
Quoting newbietrader101
Asian markets all down 3% and more. Damm, I wish I had got onto thisone too. never enough money, damm. shouldna bought the car.
posted this on 08-01-07. All markets except China down around 8-10% now. US europe and asia down like a beaten dog. China still to drop. china stock index up 300% this year. 300%
I hate that car I bought.
  • #603
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:20pm Aug 15, 2007 10:20pm
i dont see a problem with jacko considering shorting. while its true the eur/usd has been in an overall long term uptrend since 1999, if you were long between dec 2004 and nov 2005 you were against the trend, as the market peaked at 1.3660 and dropped to 1.1660 roughly. thats 2000 pips down. and a 50% retrace from the last swing low in nov 2005 to last months high on the monthly chart would take us down to about 1.2700. This is pure speculation of course, the market will do what it does. lots of possibilities, would be nice to bounce off the 23.6 and continue up, if it breaks that i will probably start going short.
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  • #604
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:29pm Aug 15, 2007 11:29pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Jolimoney,

There was another point that I felt that you have mis-interpreted me...where you seemed to infer that there may be cases where a round number or Fib number would be a higher priority than the A-H number.

I think that you have missed the point: the A-H strategy is:
1. A DISCIPLINED ACTION PLAN
2. to ENSURE THAT AS A TRADER, YOU GET BACK INTO THE MARKET (very important if you have been stopped out of your last trade)
3. PLUS IT ENSURES THAT YOU GET BACK IN AT THE POINT OF WHERE YOU WERE STOPPED OUT (therefore recouping all and any losses)
4. PLUS IT PUT YOU BACK IN THE MARKET IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MAJOR TREND.

For me, as a trader, it is ALWAYS in place. However, that does not preclude me from taking trades at other levels if I want to increase my risk profile (that is, if I am feeling greedy !!!!)


.
I'll thank you once again. Every little bit of information will be take in considiration and tested

Sure many traders heard of "the trend is your friend", but many few use it.... i wounder why....
Your postings here makes more trader aware of the easyness of following the trend.

I think that most traders... at least the newbies... has a hard time STAYING OUT of the market. The want to bet on every tick. Every move.... Take it easy and let the trend set in.

Opps... little of topic. Sorry for that.

Well... thanks once again Mr. Jacko for the explanation.

/ JoLi
  • #605
  • Aug 15, 2007 11:36pm Aug 15, 2007 11:36pm
Quoting camptrader
Hi Jacko,

Thanks for helping us learn your system.

I was hoping you could help me clarify one area that I am a bit confused

about concerning the 50% retracement level that you use.

When you look at a Daily chart do you look at several lows and figure the

50% retacement to the current high and then try to see if any of them

match a round number and a resistance area?

Or are you focusing on the more obvious 50% retrace that would be 1.3262

to 1.3851?



Thanks again,
Camptrader
I'm not an expert of this strategy but i will try answer you. If i'm wrong Mr. Jacko can correct me later on.

If you draw a fib. retracment at the daily chart from the latest low to the recent high. Then that 50% will be LESS important/strong then if you draw a fib. retracement from the low to the high of a weekly chart.

The longer the TF you have the more important and strong are the levels.

As for now i have from the low of 13 Jun to the high of 24 july. And i also have drawn from the low to the high at the weekly chart.

/ JoLi
  • #606
  • Edited 1:19am Aug 16, 2007 12:55am | Edited 1:19am
Quoting jolimoney



As for now i have from the low of 13 Jun to the high of 24 july. And i also have drawn from the low to the high at the weekly chart.

/ JoLi

joli:

If one were to retrace the present downward move, would he not
use the highs and lows of that movement itself?
  • #607
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:22am Aug 16, 2007 1:22am
I think jacko might of answered your question here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1426946&postcount=33

Quoting diallist


Well put SL!

I too would like to hear Jacko's answer to this, especially the part I've bolded in red.

(Thanks Jacko!)

Dial
  • #608
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:44am Aug 16, 2007 1:44am
Hi guys,

Just wanted to add my voice to the chorus: Jacko you are an absolute champ! I noticed you're not even holding a self serving interest in posting here. No link to marketing site, no spruiking product, nada. You're a true philanthropist. May karma be you're reward my friend.

I have also adopted you're theory (sorta). I'm currently long AUD/USD in at 81.00 with stop at 79.75. Big stop to allow for extra volatility, particularly recently, and to encompass that nice round 80.00. See http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1540775#post1540775 for a better look at my trade/chart.

If you're ever in Australia stop by and i'll "shout ya a beer mate!".

Cheers.
  • #609
  • Aug 16, 2007 1:55am Aug 16, 2007 1:55am
Quoting Isotonic
I think jacko might of answered your question here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1426946&postcount=33
Thanks Iso,

Yes, I saw that post (read the whole thread) but, if he trades off the charts, then really, what is the point of his strong emphasis on the continuing weakness of the dollar? If the chart trumps the fundies every time, then why bother with the fundies at all, much less having such an emphatically strong opinion of them?

In other words, what is the point of his strong fundies opinion if it doesn't actually factor into his trading?

Dial

P.S., I've combined Jacko's method with James16's stuff as well as some of my own stuff to get a much clearer determination of the highest probability entries. Making bucks big time!! Thanks Jacko, Jim and me. <hehe>
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  • #610
  • Aug 16, 2007 3:33am Aug 16, 2007 3:33am
Quoting winterwhite
joli:

If one were to retrace the present downward move, would he not
use the highs and lows of that movement itself?
If i.... but that is a personal chooice... would draw fib. levels from the resent downward pressure i would take the top of the "Spinning top" of August 6th to the low of august the 15th.

But then you will see the resistance levels were the price must push thru to get to higher levels rater then see the support (if you make resistance levels from the low to the high) were price can get new power to get in line with the longterm uptrend.

Personally i will do both. But remeber that the trend is stil up (tecjnical anyway) so i think there need more power to break support lines then it needs to break resistance levels.

/ JoLi
  • #611
  • Aug 16, 2007 6:38am Aug 16, 2007 6:38am
Long 1.3375, trying for better than the round number and 50% of the January lows. Still within the wider Dec channel. 50pt stop.

Catch a falling knife
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  • #612
  • Edited 7:13am Aug 16, 2007 6:51am | Edited 7:13am
Here ´s a 50 fibonacci retracement from 07 Jan of this year, you guys might find interesting.
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Common sense is not so common.
  • #613
  • Aug 16, 2007 7:40am Aug 16, 2007 7:40am
Quoting newbietrader101
posted this on 08-01-07. All markets except China down around 8-10% now. US europe and asia down like a beaten dog. China still to drop. china stock index up 300% this year. 300%
I hate that car I bought.
Not sure where you get the 300%. Of course, 80 isn't too bad.

http://in.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idINIndia-28972720070814
  • #614
  • Aug 16, 2007 10:24am Aug 16, 2007 10:24am
Quoting Dior
Here ´s a 50 fibonacci retracement from 07 Jan of this year, you guys might find interesting.
The problem I have with these fibonacci retracements is that you can define arbitrarily any starting point to fit any current situation (as seen in the past 4 fib charts that have been posted).
  • #615
  • Aug 16, 2007 10:33am Aug 16, 2007 10:33am
Quoting Trader KGB
The problem I have with these fibonacci retracements is that you can define arbitrarily any starting point to fit any current situation (as seen in the past 4 fib charts that have been posted).
Not totally arbitrary. Usually it's a bottom / top that's picked.

You can put up fibs on each bottom/top that "look good" and assume a certain number of other traders are doing the same.

Convergences are good. For example, one of the fibs' 38 falls on another fib's 50, which is the same as another fib's 68. If all that happens to fall on a support line even better. Any or all of them add probability.
  • #616
  • Aug 16, 2007 11:27am Aug 16, 2007 11:27am
Pardon my curiosity, but what parts from jacko's did you integrate with James16 stuff?

It must have been round numbers? I've used that concept with great success ...

R

Quoting diallist
Thanks Iso,

... Dial

P.S., I've combined Jacko's method with James16's stuff as well as some of my own stuff to get a much clearer determination of the highest probability entries. Making bucks big time!! Thanks Jacko, Jim and me. <hehe>
  • #617
  • Aug 16, 2007 11:45am Aug 16, 2007 11:45am
Quoting jolimoney
I'm not an expert of this strategy but i will try answer you. If i'm wrong Mr. Jacko can correct me later on.

If you draw a fib. retracment at the daily chart from the latest low to the recent high. Then that 50% will be LESS important/strong then if you draw a fib. retracement from the low to the high of a weekly chart.

The longer the TF you have the more important and strong are the levels.

As for now i have from the low of 13 Jun to the high of 24 july. And i also have drawn from the low to the high at the weekly chart.

/ JoLi
Thanks Joli
Camptrader
  • #618
  • Aug 16, 2007 12:13pm Aug 16, 2007 12:13pm
Quoting jacko
One final point, then I will stop posting and taking up valuable ForexFactory broadbandwidth.

When I want to go "long" but the market is in a (hopefully temporary) decline/retracement, I try not to catch a "falling knives". I prefer to let the market show me that it HAS turned.

Having said that, the market is very delicately balanced on the 300 bar daily trend line with touches at 1.2483 (Oct 13 2006), 1.3262 (June 13 2007) and 1.3455 (Aug 15 2007).

The market is currently at 1.3464 after bottoming (?????) at 1.3456. The market touched 1.3503 some two hours ago. If it hits 1.3500 again, I am a buyer.


A BIG CALL !!!!!!!!!

I believe that a stop Buy 1.3500 is a good buy. Certainly worth a trade.

However, I could be wwwwwrong !!!!

PS I am betting using some of my 500 pip winnings (from 1.3300 to 1.3800). So far, I have given 50 pips back (1.3650 to 1.3600). I am prepared to now risk another 50 pips that 1.3500 on the second touch is a good buy.
If it doesn’t touch 1.3500, then I can cancel the trade.

Alternatively, if it stays where it is or goes lower and doesn’t hit 1.3500 within the next couple of hours, then I may even consider changing to a seller

.
Well, the Market didnt rise up to 1.3500 for a second touch. However, I have left the 1.3500 stop buy in place.

ANOTHER BIG CALL !!!!!!!!!

I haven't gone "short"...and don't intend to go "short"...for a couple of reasons:

1. I think the opportunity passed me by, firstly when I didnt go short on the break of the 4 hr trend line at 1.3700 and secondly when I didn't go short at the break of the daily trend line at 1.3450. (Aaah but.... 20 / 20 hindsight is a beautiful thing).

2. I dont want to "chase" the opportunity and be hustled by the "irrational (negative) exuberance" of the current market.

3. My instinct/experience/gut feeling is that we are closer to the bottom of this fall than everyone thinks. I get the feeling that we were at the brink of something very serious but we have now pulled back from it.

4. Unless those smart-ass Wall St idiots have set off a truly financial nuclear weapon of mass destruction bomb, then I consider that this market may be getting close to its bottom.

5. I am not trying to say that now is a good time to buy (1.3400 is too uncertain a risk for me, but I may lower my Stop Buy to 1.3450 later)....or that the market won't go lower in the very short term...but what I am thinking is that the MAIN danger MAY have passed.

If that is the case, the relief rally (when everyone sighs a big sigh of relief and cheers each other), will be quick and intense.

6. In light of the above, I don't, at this stage, intend taking any "shorts" but will be looking to lower my Stop Buys if this market goes lower

7. Put bluntly, I didn't react quick enough to "short" the correction at worthwhile levels. However, I think that this downward correction is dying.


PLEASE NOTE I could be wwwwwrong !!!!
  • #619
  • Aug 16, 2007 12:31pm Aug 16, 2007 12:31pm
Quoting jacko
7. Put bluntly, I didn't react quick enough to "short" the correction at worthwhile levels. However, I think that this downward correction is dying.


PLEASE NOTE I could be wwwwwrong !!!!
The talking heads are ALL OVER it today, so that's another sign it's probably about over.
  • #620
  • Edited 2:11pm Aug 16, 2007 12:37pm | Edited 2:11pm
Quoting Trader KGB
The problem I have with these fibonacci retracements is that you can define arbitrarily any starting point to fit any current situation (as seen in the past 4 fib charts that have been posted).



Besides Blueruby s brilliant explanation you could take into consideration:

  1. Jacko´ s fundamental opinion,
  2. the 50 fibonacci ( 221 day) line coinciding with Isotonic´s weekly support TL

  3. and a 40 pip downward move been absorbed in less than 10 seconds (40 pip candle 15 min chart below) to conclude we might have a good probability trade in our hands.

It would be very interesting to see how price reacts to that level 1.3360 for a second time. It´s probably a good idea to wait for confirmation. For my way of trading, I have enough evidence ,I ´m long at 1.3376 willing to risk 74 pips on this particular piece.

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