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ADP NFP

  • #1
  • First Post: Dec 6, 2006 7:27am Dec 6, 2006 7:27am
well the ADP number gave a nice little jolt to the market. 158k jobs...this could be a predictor of friday's NFP, last month ADP did a pretty good job of predicting, but then again they have been way off the market in the past.
Relax and be happy.
  • #2
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:32am Dec 6, 2006 7:32am
yes...it was a nice move.... was able to get out easily with 20 pips profit. It has been a good week so far. Does anybody have any ideas about the Canadian Ivey PMI. I have been looking at the charts, and still not decided about pursuing this one....thanks
  • #3
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:33am Dec 6, 2006 7:33am
For the one who are interesting, an hystoric of ADP and NFP:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/d...ovember_06.xls
The graph is particulary interesting
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:34am Dec 6, 2006 7:34am
Quoting Gladiator
yes...it was a nice move.... was able to get out easily with 20 pips profit. It has been a good week so far. Does anybody have any ideas about the Canadian Ivey PMI. I have been looking at the charts, and still not decided about pursuing this one....thanks
damn 20 pips? you were trading the cable i assume??

nice trade man
Relax and be happy.
  • #5
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:35am Dec 6, 2006 7:35am
Quoting crownthomas
For the one who are interesting, an hystoric of ADP and NFP:
http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/d...ovember_06.xls
The graph is particulary interesting
you can also look at the graph on this page...

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/report_analysis.aspx

ADP is trying real hard to make their indicator a predictor of offical NFP, and that worries me. they are probably curve fitting, just like a trading system designer would do.
Relax and be happy.
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2006 7:47am Dec 6, 2006 7:47am
Quoting merlin
you can also look at the graph on this page...

http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/report_analysis.aspx

ADP is trying real hard to make their indicator a predictor of offical NFP, and that worries me. they are probably curve fitting, just like a trading system designer would do.
If they can make it accepted as such, it will a whole lotta free advertising for them.
Profit is where readiness meets Opportunity
  • #7
  • Dec 7, 2006 9:48am Dec 7, 2006 9:48am
Quoting merlin
well the ADP number gave a nice little jolt to the market. 158k jobs...this could be a predictor of friday's NFP, last month ADP did a pretty good job of predicting, but then again they have been way off the market in the past.
If NFP increased, wouldn't it be that employment increased, bur productivity decreased, and labor costs decreased... is it popular to use horses instead of trucks lately?
  • #8
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:46pm Dec 7, 2006 10:46pm
NFP back-up data is ADP. It sends the dollar to corrective mode already, perhaps to rebound mode soon.
That's the reaction of market to news, don't know which is true unless the news realeased.
Hello World
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2006 10:59pm Dec 7, 2006 10:59pm
hmm some traders say will bring gbp up to magical number 2.00 but the consesus of nfp will bring the usd up.december nfp always like this? since this is the last nfp on this year.hmm excited.hmm i myself love to see usd up up and up. keep the bull on the road
  • #10
  • Last Post: Dec 7, 2006 11:10pm Dec 7, 2006 11:10pm
Quoting parlenk
hmm some traders say will bring gbp up to magical number 2.00 but the consesus of nfp will bring the usd up.december nfp always like this? since this is the last nfp on this year.hmm excited.hmm i myself love to see usd up up and up. keep the bull on the road
Yes, I agree with you. Last month of the year, many business people prepare their service by hiring more employees, and many countries buying dollar to pay their debts...Somehow, I smell the dollar positive in this area...
Hello World
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