Dreamer's Journal

Hi all,

I will use this thread as a journal to follow my journey and also to discipline myself.

I have long trading history with a lot of good and bad experience. But, overall I lost a lot.

I accumulated during years knowledge and experience, but it costed to me a lot.

But, strangely, despite all costs, I couldn't lose the idea that it is quite possible to earn a lot of money in these financial markets with proper leverage if you achieve to be disciplined and dedicated.

I believe, most of my losses came from usual bad habits in trading such as greed, overtrading, overleveraging, fear, hastiness etc.

Even I was not right about my predictions in many cases, but it was not the main issue in my humble opinion. Correct predictions of mine should have been more than enough for me over years if I could have been patient enough by using less leverage.

So, with the help of this journal, I want to restrict bad habits in my trading and finally turn my trading journey into consistently succesfull one.

Although main purpose of this thread is to discipline myself, I will share my trading opinions sometimes about possible opportunities with charts.

Any contribution is welcome unless it is disrespectful, selling something or looking like a scam.

All the best!

good

I see 3 strong trends in the market. I will share them respectively. First is SP500.

Overall trend is up. It is quite strong and obvious at monthly chart. Despite down days at last week, daily and weekly charts are also positive.

Down days at last week looks more like corrective in a strong up trend.

I will be longing SP500 with small leverage in my day trades.

I think, we will see first 6800 and then 7000 in the following months.

Second strong trend is Gold. Up trend is quite obvious at monthly and weekly charts.

Even though daily is also bullish, it also suggests that we may visit 3700 as a corrective move (so must be careful with leverage/position size).

But, my guess is another weekly up candle which will test 3800 this week.

Targets in the following weeks and months are 3800 and 4000 respectively.

I expect continuation of bullishness at Gold, because, in addition to current momentum in charts, I expect that geopolitical problems in the world will increase and of course, FED rate cuts may continue.

Third strong trend is Silver. Monthly, Weekly and Daily charts are quite bullish.

From monthly chart, we can assume that we will see 2011 top level soon which was around 50.00.

Although up momentum is very strong, considering how fast we came here at last weeks, there can be harsh correction.

So, having long positions with proper size is very important.

Also, see at monthly chart that how wild the drop in 2011 after top.

But, honestly, I don't expect such big drops now. Because fundamentals (possible more FED rate cuts, diversification of assets due to USD weakness and other global risks) are supporting further rise, even further than 50.00 level.

Just need to be careful with large corrections which can happen even at very strong trends.

I will be longing Silver at my day trades with proper sizes.

Targets are first 50, then 55 and 60 in the following weeks/months.

Make your own analysis and proper risk management! Good luck!

Last week (29 sep - 03 oct) evaluation:
It was good week. I was over my daily %2 target. I profited well from Gold and Silver last week especially on Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday also was good, but despite my good predictions on Gold and Silver on Thursday and Friday, I couldn't trade them according to my analysis. I scared of possible further down correction and cut my profits very early. There could be handsome profits, but anyway at least no loss. There was nice opportunities at SP500, but I missed good entries and big up moves. And I longed from top and then tried to close without much damage I think, US government shutdown has distracted me. I have waited more down movement before up. Maybe also because of too much focus on Gold, I couldn't trade well on SP500. Little profit/loss in total at SP500.

Game plan for next week (03-09 oct):
1) Will be watching UJ, it seems that there will be gap up due to new PM, I plan to close gap partly. Can be tricky.
2) Gold/Silver looks still very promising for longing. I will keep my Gold longs from 3890 for 3920-3950 and add small long position for Silver.
3) Keep watching SP500 to buy dips.

Let's keep this gem here

Mother of all miseries in this business is: We are not satisfied with reasonable, feasible, doable daily profits like %1 (which is actually very big amount of money considering its compounded effect over years). So, we force our limits and take more risks and even we earn nicely for some time, we return to where we start sooner or a bit later. This vicious circle continue for a long time for most of small traders like me. Few of us broke this circle by being patient and consistent after a lot of loss/experience/effort. Also, I believe that there are tiny percentage of small traders who can take high risk and get high return without eventually losing it. But, those group is extremely small and negligible imho.

This unsatisfaction refers to greediness and impatience of humankind nature, but there are 3 underlying reasons that contribute to it according to my observations.

1) Since usually we have very small capital like 100$, 1000$, 3000$. We don't feel the power of %1. I guess that it would be more tangible if we had 30000$ and earn %1 per day that means 300$. But, considering the power of compounded profits over time, we should able to get satisfied with %1 and focus on long term. But, in most cases we fail. Assume that you have 300$ initially, when you earn %1 per day, you can earn more than millions in just 3 years. Unbelievably good and also feasible. But, sooner or later we try to gain more and mess up everthing we have done. Small percentage gain at small capital is not so touchable (as a feeling), so it triggers the desire of using of higher leverage.

2) I mentioned one part of the issue with small capital above, maybe other part is that we want to earn more and quicker if we have small capital, because we want to be financially independent asap. But, ironically, this creates a vicious circle. We take more risk and turn to starting point and in many case, we even lose over time our capital we earn somewhere else (returning to minus). Then, we want to earn even more and even quicker..and so on..and so on. Forcing limits too much to become financially independent asap brings us to minus balances.

3) Lastly, we fall into the trap of possible high returns and not satisfied with doable small returns like %1 daily (which is actullay incredibly great amount if you can become consistent over time). Because, we ourselves (at least many of us) have seen the feasibility/reality of high returns. Many small traders, if traded more than a couple of years, probably has an experience of fantastic growth in short period (and also loss of all even in shorter period). Since we know that it is possible to win big with high leverage, we lose often our control on our emotions. Earning %1 daily looks very boring when you have doubled/tripled your account some day in the past. Being patient become more chanlenge when you know there is a shorter way. But, the issue is that %99 times shorter way brings you to where you start quicker than you imagine . Experience of earning big with high leverage causes illusion and takes us away from long term achievable targets.

So, we should understand and remind ourselves often that only highly possible way to success is to grow slowly.

This post is a kind of reminding effort to myself.